Article: The Red Sox Have Begun Extension Talks With Garrett Crochet

[Old Red]

39 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I answered. You just don't like my answer.

You hate the idea of an opt out after 2027, but you want everyone to talk about it for some reason.

Maybe because that’s a real possibility unless the Red Sox blow Cro Man away with a contract offer. Faith in the Red Sox doing that I do not have.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Maybe because that’s a real possibility unless the Red Sox blow Cro Man away with a contract offer. Faith in the Red Sox doing that I do not have.

Why obsess about something that may not even be on Crochet's mind? I just don't get it. We can come up with an idea of what an extension could look like. A poster could say "he may want an opt out." Great. Do we have to talk about that one idea for 200 posts now? Instead of just saying "well I think it might look like this," moon wanted everyone to justify how we'd all react as a GM if Crochet turned down moon's offer. Like, what are we even doing here? 

[Bellhorn04]

Crochet is in kind of an unusual position here because he had his breakout season with just 2 arb years left.  He only gets 3.8 million for this year.  He's only looking at about $15 million in arb money.  If he gets injured he might not even get that.

A big chunk of "life-changing" guaranteed money has to look pretty attractive to a man in that position.  Especially a pitcher who hasn't even pitched a full MLB season yet.

But maybe he's a ballsy guy who's willing to "bet on himself". 

 

  

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet is in kind of an unusual position here because he had his breakout season with just 2 arb years left.  He only gets 3.8 million for this year.  He's only looking at about $15 million in arb money.  If he gets injured he might not even get that.

A big chunk of guaranteed money has to look pretty attractive to a man in that position.  Especially a pitcher who hasn't even pitched a full MLB season yet.

But maybe he's a ballsy guy who's willing to "bet on himself". 

Is Breslow ballsy enough to give him a HUGE contract to stick around as the ace of the team for the next 5-6 years? 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Why obsess about something that may not even be on Crochet's mind? I just don't get it. We can come up with an idea of what an extension could look like. A poster could say "he may want an opt out." Great. Do we have to talk about that one idea for 200 posts now? Instead of just saying "well I think it might look like this," moon wanted everyone to justify how we'd all react as a GM if Crochet turned down moon's offer. Like, what are we even doing here? 

I’m not even counting on Cro Man being with the Red Sox past 2026 at this point until I see a contract past 2026 gets done.

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is Breslow ballsy enough to give him a HUGE contract to stick around as the ace of the team for the next 5-6 years? 

I think they'll probably get this done.  I do think the Sox have some extra motivation from the fact they gave up a lot of talent.  And they really need a guy like this.  I think they'll make a solid offer.

 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Is Breslow ballsy enough to give him a HUGE contract to stick around as the ace of the team for the next 5-6 years? 

He’d better after giving up the suspects he gave up.

[Old Red]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The exchanged numbers and might go to the arb. Still time before the hearings begin Jan 27th.

The word out there is Duran asking for $4M, and the Red Sox offering $3.5M. Sounds like hardball to me.

[notin]

38 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet is in kind of an unusual position here because he had his breakout season with just 2 arb years left.  He only gets 3.8 million for this year.  He's only looking at about $15 million in arb money.  If he gets injured he might not even get that.

A big chunk of "life-changing" guaranteed money has to look pretty attractive to a man in that position.  Especially a pitcher who hasn't even pitched a full MLB season yet.

But maybe he's a ballsy guy who's willing to "bet on himself". 

 

  

Maybe, but he was also open about wanting an extension from any team he was dealt to at the deadline last year.

[notin]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet is in kind of an unusual position here because he had his breakout season with just 2 arb years left.  He only gets 3.8 million for this year.  He's only looking at about $15 million in arb money.  If he gets injured he might not even get that.

A big chunk of "life-changing" guaranteed money has to look pretty attractive to a man in that position.  Especially a pitcher who hasn't even pitched a full MLB season yet.

But maybe he's a ballsy guy who's willing to "bet on himself". 

 

  

I think he has to be very open to an extension.  If he requires another elbow surgery this year, he’s going to be a non-tender candidate that hits free agency with no deal, no chance of playing in 2026, and two TJs in his medical history.  Not a good place to be negotiating from.

But he will be a millionaire.  So there is that…

[notin]

22 minutes ago, Old Red said:

The word out there is Duran asking for $4M, and the Red Sox offering $3.5M. Sounds like hardball to me.

Sounds close enough that an agreement is reachable.  If this goes to arb, the Sox hopefully understand they’re not going to win a case against an 8 WAR outfielder seeking utility infielder money…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I answered. You just don't like my answer.

You hate the idea of an opt out after 2027, but you want everyone to talk about it for some reason.

My question was about letting him walk after his two arb years, if he insists on a 2027 opt-out, which we all dislike.

I missed your answer to that. I missed Bell's, too. I went back a little bit and did not find the replies to that Q.

I'd rather have Crochet for 3 years over 2, and would do it, if that was our only choice, unless the terms of the money was something wildly absurd.

I saw some "Nos" about $200M but not about a forced opt out or walk chocie.

[mvp 78]

If Crochett is going to walk because he won't sign a Cole deal, I wouldn't agree to an opt out after '27. It provides protection for him and screws over the Red Sox if he has a career ending injury. Might as well make it a mutual option so the Sox can get out of it. Breslow needs to nut up and give an offer that is good enough that he doesn't feel like he needs to test the market.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I don't believe it's much of a stretch to say at this point that the SOX have one of the worst ownerships in all of baseball.

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

The word out there is Duran asking for $4M, and the Red Sox offering $3.5M. Sounds like hardball to me.

No different than every ARB negotiation. An increase now has a cascading impact on ARB years 2, 3 and 4. They are trying to save money on all 4 years, not just 2025. 

[mvp 78]

17 minutes ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

I don't believe it's much of a stretch to say at this point that the SOX have one of the worst ownerships in all of baseball.

I mean, I feel the same way I did as the day Mookie was traded. It's up to them to fix it. 🫠

[moonslav59]

28 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Crochett is going to walk because he won't sign a Cole deal, I wouldn't agree to an opt out after '27. It provides protection for him and screws over the Red Sox if he has a career ending injury. Might as well make it a mutual option so the Sox can get out of it. Breslow needs to nut up and give an offer that is good enough that he doesn't feel like he needs to test the market.

I totally agree, and I'm willing to overpay to get it done. While guaranteeing money to such an "unproven" pitcher seems scary as hell, so is giving 7-8 years to guys like Burnes and Fried.

deGrom proved he could pitch, but was his contract any less riskier than giving Crochet $180M/6 or $200M/7?

The opt out does give Crochet a big upper hand. That is why we both hate the idea, but the worst thing that could happen, to me, is that Crochet walks after 2 years for nothing more than a comp pick.

I can certainly see someone thinking, "No, the worst thing is, he sucks or has major injuries and does not opt out, and we're stuck with him. Well no opt out does the same thing.

So, basically, it comes down to him doing great and opting out, leaving us stuck without an ace. Well, I'd rather have an ce for 3 years rather than 2. I also think a contract with no opt out would probably have to be a higher AAV to get him to sign, so if he gets hurt or disappoints, then the no opt out paid him more.

[Old Red]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No different than every ARB negotiation. An increase now has a cascading impact on ARB years 2, 3 and 4. They are trying to save money on all 4 years, not just 2025. 

They are always trying to save money, but .5M is still playing hardball, which Duran would probably win anyways in arbitration.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I can certainly see someone thinking, "No, the worst thing is, he sucks or has major injuries and does not opt out, and we're stuck with him. Well no opt out does the same thing.

No opt out gets the Sox to keep an ace here for several years if he stays healthy and productive. That's the difference. 

[Old Red]

41 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Crochett is going to walk because he won't sign a Cole deal, I wouldn't agree to an opt out after '27. It provides protection for him and screws over the Red Sox if he has a career ending injury. Might as well make it a mutual option so the Sox can get out of it. Breslow needs to nut up and give an offer that is good enough that he doesn't feel like he needs to test the market.

I don’t see the Cro Man getting anything close to a Cole deal. Cole was a lot more established when he signed that contract compared to Cro Man who has only pitched over 100 innings once.

 

[moonslav59]

Aside from the opt out discussion, not to the money....

$35M x 6 Burnes 31 years old (hometown discount)

$27M x 8 Fried, 31

$36M x 5 Snell, 32

$25M x 3 Nate (35)  and Manaea (33)

Why would Crochet, who will be 27 when he hits the FA market, accept $25M x 6?

Yes: piece of mind. Yes, you never know what might happen. Yes, he is largely unproven and knows that.

But, he'd be betting against himself to sign up for that, now, IMO.

To me, if we traded for Crochet, thinking we could get him to sign for $150M/6 or less, we made yet another mistake. I hope I am wrong. I'll be thrilled if he signs that deal with no opt out. I'll be thrilled at $175M/7 or $200M/8.

This guy is young and can pitch. It's all about health and durability, which is a total unknown, right now. If we wait a year and he goes 180 IP, this year with similar numbers, he won't sign for $200M/7, IMO.

Lock him up now and roll the dice with a young arm- not an older one.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No opt out gets the Sox to keep an ace here for several years if he stays healthy and productive. That's the difference. 

I get the difference between an opt out deal and no opt out. The guy only opts out, if he's doing well.

I was only addressing the difference between 2 years and 3.

I'd offer more money for him to drop the opt out demands, if he has them. It seems I'm willing to pay more than some, here. I do NOT want an opt out.

I want him for more than 2 years. That is my #1 priority with him, right now.

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Aside from the opt out discussion, not to the money....

$35M x 6 Burnes 31 years old (hometown discount)

$27M x 8 Fried, 31

$36M x 5 Snell, 32

$25M x 3 Nate (35)  and Manaea (33)

Why would Crochet, who will be 27 when he hits the FA market, accept $25M x 6?

Yes: piece of mind. Yes, you never know what might happen. Yes, he is largely unproven and knows that.

But, he'd be betting against himself to sign up for that, now, IMO.

To me, if we traded for Crochet, thinking we could get him to sign for $150M/6 or less, we made yet another mistake. I hope I am wrong. I'll be thrilled if he signs that deal with no opt out. I'll be thrilled at $175M/7 or $200M/8.

This guy is young and can pitch. It's all about health and durability, which is a total unknown, right now. If we wait a year and he goes 180 IP, this year with similar numbers, he won't sign for $200M/7, IMO.

Lock him up now and roll the dice with a young arm- not an older one.

Those are ALL FREE AGENT contracts.  None of those guys have to risk staying healthy for two years and they all had longer track records than Crochett.  A lot can happen in that time frame.  

 

Those are total apple to oranges comparisons. 

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

They are always trying to save money, but .5M is still playing hardball, which Duran would probably win anyways in arbitration.

I've never visited the arcane world of MLB arbitration so it's hard to say one way or the other. They still have time to come to agreement before it gets that far.

[mvp 78]

14 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see the Cro Man getting anything close to a Cole deal. Cole was a lot more established when he signed that contract compared to Cro Man who has only pitched over 100 innings once.

I'm just saying I'd think about going that high if I needed to. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Aside from the opt out discussion, not to the money....

$35M x 6 Burnes 31 years old (hometown discount)

$27M x 8 Fried, 31

$36M x 5 Snell, 32

$25M x 3 Nate (35)  and Manaea (33)

Why would Crochet, who will be 27 when he hits the FA market, accept $25M x 6?

Yes: piece of mind. Yes, you never know what might happen. Yes, he is largely unproven and knows that.

But, he'd be betting against himself to sign up for that, now, IMO.

It's not necessarily "betting against yourself" when the risk of career-ending injury at any time is not insignificant for a pitcher...

  

[Nick]

 But if you’re not willing to pay for Crochet in 2027 and beyond after you made it clear you believe in him enough to move 4 of your top 15 prospects in your system, then what the hell are you doing?

If I don't see an extension, Bres will hear from me every day until he quits.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Those are ALL FREE AGENT contracts.  None of those guys have to risk staying healthy for two years and they all had longer track records than Crochett.  A lot can happen in that time frame.  

 

Those are total apple to oranges comparisons. 

I was talking about what Crochet will or might make when he becomes a FA after 2026. He will get FA money, then.

I get the fact that signing an extension before you become a Free Agent does not mean you get FA money, especially when you just have just one year of doing well. If he had 3 years like 2024 and was a FA, and was a FA at 27, he'd get $35-40M a year x 6-8 years, easily. 

I'm not offering him that. This is not apples to apples.

I'm for offering him the $1150M/6 others have suggested, but I'd go higher, if he does not get an opt out. I might go $180M/6 or $200M/7 with no opt out. I do not think he'd accept $150M/6. I would not, unless I think 2024 was a fluke.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Old Red said:

I don’t see the Cro Man getting anything close to a Cole deal. Cole was a lot more established when he signed that contract compared to Cro Man who has only pitched over 100 innings once.

 

Cole turned 30 the first year of his deal. Crochet will turn 28 the first year.

Cole had 3 really good years under his belt and 3-4 decent ones, when he signed. His worst years were his last 2 with PIT. He would not have gotten a great deal had he become a FA then, which was when he was the age Crochet will be (27-28.) He was 19-22 4.12 w a WHIP of 1.32. It was his 2 really good seasons with HOU that skyrocketed his FA value to $324M/9.

Crochet does not deserve that ($36M x 9,) now.  If he has two great years, he might come close, especially with inflation. He signed 4 seasons ago.

We are going to have to pay Crochet for him to accept it.

 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm for offering him the $1150M/6 others have suggested, but I'd go higher, if he does not get an opt out. I might go $180M/6 or $200M/7 with no opt out. I do not think he'd accept $150M/6. I would not, unless I think 2024 was a fluke.

What about the threat of injury?

If Crochet doesn't sign an extension and then gets hurts in 2025, his career earnings in baseball might be capped at around $10 million.

Meanwhile, $150 million is more than he could ever spend.