Article: Aroldis Chapman Doesn’t Begin To Solve Red Sox’ Bullpen Woes

[Brandon Glick]

As they find themselves further entrenched in Juan Soto rumors, the Red Sox have pivoted to signing a controversial closer.

With the understanding that Kenley Jansen would walk away in free agency after two mostly solid years in Beantown, the Red Sox were in the market for some new blood in the back end of their bullpen. Well, calling him “new blood" may be a bit generous as he heads into his age-37 season, but Aroldis Chapman will likely get first crack at filling the closer role in Boston after signing a one-year, $10.75 million deal with the Red Sox on Tuesday. Chapman isn’t the same pitcher who once routinely hurled 105 MPH lightning bolts, though his average fastball velocity still ranked in the 98th percentile in 2024 with the Pittsburgh Pirates. With a 3.79 ERA and 3.04 FIP over 61 2/3 innings, Chapman isn’t a surefire shutdown closer anymore, but yet 14.3 strikeouts per nine innings were right in line with his career norms.

On and on the same analysis goes. In totality, it all means that Chapman has fallen from the legendary heights he once occupied, but he’s still a pretty darn good pitcher compared to his contemporaries. Of course, his off-the-field issues can’t be ignored, but purely from a baseball perspective, his addition makes plenty of sense for a team that desperately needs help in the bullpen.

That relief crew is filled with a lot of question marks and few answers. Liam Hendricks was an elite closer for a while, but he’s thrown just five innings total since his cancer diagnosis in December 2022. He’s now cancer free, though he required Tommy John surgery immediately after returning to the mound last year, which knocked him out for the entirety of the 2024 season. His track record is strong and he is such an easy guy to root for, but relying on him to be anything in 2025 is a fool’s errand.

Justin Slaten (2.93 ERA in 55 1/3 IP) and Greg Weissert (3.13 ERA in 63 1/3 IP) both had strong campaigns this year, though the former was a rookie and the latter struggled in previous cups of coffee with the Yankees. That is to say: they may be solid relievers, but their track records are perilously thin. Beyond them, it’s a barren wasteland out in right-center field at Fenway Park. Justin Wilson (5.59 ERA in 46 2/3 IP) was an unmitigated disaster this past season. Brennan Bernardino (4.06 ERA in 51 IP) and Josh Winckowski (4.14 ERA in 76 IP) were merely average. Michael Fulmer also missed the entire 2024 season with his own UCL injury.

Add it up, and you have the makings of a bullpen that looks bad on paper, and only marginally better with Chapman at the helm. The southpaw's still-elite swing-and-miss stuff — his 37.1% strikeout rate ranks in the 99th percentile and his 32.3% whiff rate ranks in the 91st percentile — adds a lot to a group that is losing Jansen’s 28.4% strikeout rate, but it isn’t going to salvage it single-handedly. As long as Chapman is the first of many moves that chief baseball officer Craig Breslow makes to patch up his relief crew, this is a solid signing. If it’s the only thing he does, the late innings may be a nightmare in Boston next season.

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[moonslav59]

They better not be relying on Chapman, Hendriks and Fulmer to take up the slack from the Jansen/Martin departures. Our pen was somewhere between being near average and sucking, last year. So far, we haven't even stayed even. We can't count on things like, "we'll get a full year of Slaten," since someone else may get hurt. I do think Whitlock in the pen may help, a lot, but his health is always a concern. Adding 2 top SP'ers would take some slack and workload off the pen, while also pushing Crawford or Bello into the long role. That could help, but to me, we still need to add Scott, Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes- maybe trade for Helsley.

[notin]

I was more into Tanner Scott as part of the solution myself.  And I get not liking Chapman as a human being.  He’s one of my frequently used Second Chance examples that I never understood.

 

But right now, as far as we know, this guy is replacing Cam Booser or Brennan Bernardino.  And if he does get used in high leverage situations - which both Booser and Bernardino were - he’s not the worst option pitching wise.

 

And if we look at him solely from a baseball perspective, he’s a better upgrade than Justin Wilson…

[mvp 78]

Chapman = waning closer, but still above average

Hendriks = question mark

Slaten = plus

Weissert = plus

Bernardino = average

Winckowski = average

Wilson = mop up

Kelly/Whitlock/Guerrero/Penrod = a lot of options to throw at the wall to see what sticks

Seems like an average bullpen to me? I think most of us have wanted one other high leverage arm to put in there. I know Martin wanted to come back.

[Hugh2]

I don't think Chapman is going to close, but I think he will get some work in tight spots.  I can see him being used as the guy who comes in to get 3 outs when a bunch of lefty's are coming up in innings 7-9.  His performance could entrust him with more. 

I really like his stuff, but I'm not sure I would trust him in the 9th in a tight game.  Not with that insane walk rate. 

[Hugh2]

Chapman still hit 105 on the radar gun last year, he still has it, that's a fact. 

What I find weird is he throws 4 pitches which is just odd. 

I wonder if Bailey and Breslow think they can tighten up his arsenal and turn him back into one of the best relievers in the entire game for a year. 

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They better not be relying on Chapman, Hendriks and Fulmer to take up the slack from the Jansen/Martin departures. Our pen was somewhere between being near average and sucking, last year. So far, we haven't even stayed even. We can't count on things like, "we'll get a full year of Slaten," since someone else may get hurt. I do think Whitlock in the pen may help, a lot, but his health is always a concern. Adding 2 top SP'ers would take some slack and workload off the pen, while also pushing Crawford or Bello into the long role. That could help, but to me, we still need to add Scott, Hoffman, Estevez or Holmes- maybe trade for Helsley.

has Martin signed elsewhere, retired....??

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

Chapman still hit 105 on the radar gun last year, he still has it, that's a fact. 

What I find weird is he throws 4 pitches which is just odd. 

I wonder if Bailey and Breslow think they can tighten up his arsenal and turn him back into one of the best relievers in the entire game for a year. 

His 4 seamer was his worst pitch last year per RV/100. Whiff rate is way down on that. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Duran Is The Man said:

has Martin signed elsewhere, retired....??

Not yet, but as of now, he's not on our roster.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

His 4 seamer was his worst pitch last year per RV/100. Whiff rate is way down on that. 

I found it interesting that his slider has more velo than his FB.

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I found it interesting that his slider has more velo than his FB.

His sinker, not his slider. 

[Randy Red Sox]

11 hours ago, notin said:

I was more into Tanner Scott as part of the solution myself.  And I get not liking Chapman as a human being.  He’s one of my frequently used Second Chance examples that I never understood.

 

But right now, as far as we know, this guy is replacing Cam Booser or Brennan Bernardino.  And if he does get used in high leverage situations - which both Booser and Bernardino were - he’s not the worst option pitching wise.

 

And if we look at him solely from a baseball perspective, he’s a better upgrade than Justin Wilson…

we are paying him than 10 million.  he better not just be replacing Booser/Bernandino.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we are paying him than 10 million.  he better not just be replacing Booser/Bernandino.

It's closer to $11M, and he's gotta be viewed as their idea of a closer.

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's closer to $11M, and he's gotta be viewed as their idea of a closer.

I don't necessarily believe that to be true. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't necessarily believe that to be true. 

The bullpen still rots: replacing old, past-their-prime men looking for retirement with old, rehabbing men looking for second, third or eighth-chances.

[Hugh2]

21 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

His 4 seamer was his worst pitch last year per RV/100. Whiff rate is way down on that. 

That's what I was looking at too, I wonder if he can be elite elite again if he just ditches the 4 seamer and throws the sinker with the slider/split

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

we are paying him than 10 million.  he better not just be replacing Booser/Bernandino.

Soto is about to get about 700 million. 

$10 million is chump change nowadays. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Soto is about to get about 700 million. 

$10 million is chump change nowadays. 

Disagree, because it all adds up and the tax thresholds and penalties obviously still matter plenty. 

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The bullpen still rots: replacing old, past-their-prime men looking for retirement with old, rehabbing men looking for second, third or eighth-chances.

I wouldn't say "rots." They were 14th in fWAR last year. It's a very AVERAGE bullpen. Some metrics are above average, some below. I think they have room for improvement for sure. 

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Disagree, because it all adds up and the tax thresholds and penalties obviously still matter plenty. 

The nonfinancial penalties are a tougher sell than the tax penalties IMO. 

[Hugh2]

50 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Disagree, because it all adds up and the tax thresholds and penalties obviously still matter plenty. 

Not if they're going over, it's just peanuts at that point.  Sox are way under and would be first time offenders. 

Like MVP just said its the non tax penalties that are the harshest.  The Sox could spend $92 million dollars more before they'd have to lose draft position. 

If the Sox spent all the way up to $280 million (and I'm not saying they are) it would cost them a little over $10 million. 

They have said repeatedly over the years they will spend when they have a team worth building around.  This is John Henry's MO, he's done it here, he's done it in Florida over and over again, and they're literally telling us they're doing it this year. 

I predicted it earlier and I'm going to say it again.  The Sox are going over the CBT this year.  

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't say "rots." They were 14th in fWAR last year. It's a very AVERAGE bullpen. Some metrics are above average, some below. I think they have room for improvement for sure. 

I would say rots in the second half of every season this decade. Red Sox bullpens in the 2020s go like this: a few guys have pretty good first halves, some are even borderline All-Stars... then the utterly embarrassingly-shallow starting rotation gets hurt, whoever's not on the IL can't go five frames, and all the relievers get burned out until their rag arms blow saves in every inning -- even when they're openers -- so notin can complain about blown saves being a meaningful stat, all while we're watching them blow another summer shot at making the playoffs.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I would say rots in the second half of every season this decade. 

Well, the pen was 30th in fWAR from 7/21 - end of season last year. 

Bad: Kelly, Bernardino, Horn, Keller, Booser, Sims and Anderson (not sure any of these are on the Opening Day roster)

Good: Martin, Weissert, Guerrero, Jansen, Slaten 

[notin]

14 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It's closer to $11M, and he's gotta be viewed as their idea of a closer.

That’s not really free agent closer money anymore.  I think Hendriks gets first crack at the ninth and that decision was made a year ago.

Chapman was signed for $11mill probably means Tanner Scott is looking for $14-15mill for multiple years…

[notin]

19 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I would say rots in the second half of every season this decade. Red Sox bullpens in the 2020s go like this: a few guys have pretty good first halves, some are even borderline All-Stars... then the utterly embarrassingly-shallow starting rotation gets hurt, whoever's not on the IL can't go five frames, and all the relievers get burned out until their rag arms blow saves in every inning -- even when they're openers -- so notin can complain about blown saves being a meaningful stat, all while we're watching them blow another summer shot at making the playoffs.

The second half of that bullpen’s season can’t be unrelated to their decision to never replace their injured starters. Before April was out, two SPs went down and the closest thing to a fifth starter was Criswell, and he didn’t take regular turns in the rotation.  Not to mention, Cora clearly didn’t trust him to go deep into games.

The Sox need five actual starters, and need to replace anyone who goes down in ST, especially if MLB arms not named Chase Anderson are available…

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well, the pen was 30th in fWAR from 7/21 - end of season last year. 

Bad: Kelly, Bernardino, Horn, Keller, Booser, Sims and Anderson (not sure any of these are on the Opening Day roster)

Good: Martin, Weissert, Guerrero, Jansen, Slaten 

29th might as well be 30th, and we did suck after June 21st.

We can't blame that on Slaten getting less than 18 IP, and while we did have 7 RP'ers with a plus FWAR and 10+ IP in that time frame, we also had some real stinkers:

-0.8 Kelly (26 IP)

-0.5 Horn (18) & Bernardino (22)

-0.3 Keller (10)

-0.2 Sims (14), Booser (17)

-0.1 I Campbell (0.1) L Garcia (15) Hill (4) Anderson (14) and Wingenter (2)

I don't see Chapman and hendriks even breaking even with jansen & martin, so we have a long way to go.

Whitlock can help. Maybe adding Criswell, Fitts or Priester to the pen could be a boost, but we need them as starter depth.

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see Chapman and hendriks even breaking even with jansen & martin, so we have a long way to go.

Whitlock can help. Maybe adding Criswell, Fitts or Priester to the pen could be a boost, but we need them as starter depth.

 

I think it's clear they need another addition to solidify the backend of the pen. Hendriks is a big question mark to me. Chapman is fine enough I guess, but is going to drive everyone wild with his walks. 

I'm not sure what the plan is for Whitlock. He was never a one inning guy. He was more of an oldschool fireman type role that could come in to shut down a lineup and then pitch the next inning rather than a late inning closer or pure setup guy. 

I'd keep Criswell/Priester/Fitts all as starters. The only current starters I'd convert are Wikelman and Sandlin. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think it's clear they need another addition to solidify the backend of the pen. Hendriks is a big question mark to me. Chapman is fine enough I guess, but is going to drive everyone wild with his walks. 

I'm not sure what the plan is for Whitlock. He was never a one inning guy. He was more of an oldschool fireman type role that could come in to shut down a lineup and then pitch the next inning rather than a late inning closer or pure setup guy. 

I'd keep Criswell/Priester/Fitts all as starters. The only current starters I'd convert are Wikelman and Sandlin. 

I agree, and I have little confidence in Chapman and/or Hendriks as our 2025 closer. Hell, they may be suspect 8th inning guys, as is. I am nearcertain Whitlock will be in the pen. He could end up winning the closer role, be our best set- up man or be that 1-3 inning guy for high leverage situations from inning 6 to 9. He could also bomb out or get hurt, again. I like Slaten as a 7th or 8th inning guy, and I have some hopes for Wink & Bernardino. We have a ton of AAA/AAAA type depth, which is fine, but I agree, we need another solid addition to the 8th and 9th inning group of RP'ers. I'd like a bonafide closer, but I doubt that happens.

We could also add 2 SP'ers and push Crawford, Bello or Gio to the pen, but noe rate to be a closer or top set-up guy.

After SP1 or 2, I still think Closer is our second highest need, above a big RHB and catcher.

[Duran Is The Man]

i fully believe the Sox will not only miss out on Soto, they'll miss out on Burnes and Fried and the sham will continue.

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i fully believe the Sox will not only miss out on Soto, they'll miss out on Burnes and Fried and the sham will continue.

And you're certainly not the only one who's thinking that.