Article: A Plea For The Red Sox To Sign Juan Soto

[moonslav59]

A soto signing would likely be coupled with a trade for a SP'er involving Abreu.

LF: Soto

CF: Duran

RF: Anthony

4th: Rafaela (pretty expensive) Do we also trade him?

[smokedogg1982]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

....still time for another team to jump their bid.

This is the clip I saw taking it with lots of salt but my hopes are officially high.

[moonslav59]

Say we sign Soto, Higgy, Holmes and Scott, then trade Abreu and Fitts for Crochet. We'd be pretty close to the second tax line, but I'd like this roster:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito/Crawford

RP: Scott, Holmes, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks,  Crawford, Criswell, Wink

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Casas 1B

4. Devers 3B (Yes, 4 straight lefties)

5. Story SS

6. Anthony RF

7. Yoshida-Ref DH platoon

8. DHam-Grissom 2B platoon (Campbell looming)

9. Higgy-Wong C

Rafaela Utility

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

15 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Say we sign Soto, Higgy, Holmes and Scott, then trade Abreu and Fitts for Crochet. We'd be pretty close to the second tax line, but I'd like this roster:

SP: Crochet, Houck, Bello, Crawford, Giolito/Crawford

RP: Scott, Holmes, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks,  Crawford, Criswell, Wink

1. Duran CF

2. Soto LF

3. Casas 1B

4. Devers 3B (Yes, 4 straight lefties)

5. Story SS

6. Anthony RF

7. Yoshida-Ref DH platoon

8. DHam-Grissom 2B platoon (Campbell looming)

9. Higgy-Wong C

Rafaela Utility

IF... gotta believe Soto-Devers hit 2-3 in the batting order for the next decade.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

IF... gotta believe Soto-Devers hit 2-3 in the batting order for the next decade.

The 3 hole is no longer viewed as important as it once was. 2 and 4 are tops with 5 and 1 worth more than 3.

Go figure.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 3 hole is no longer viewed as important as it once was. 2 and 4 are tops with 5 and 1 worth more than 3.

Go figure.

Third spot is the most likely hitter to come up with 2 outs and no one on base…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 3 hole is no longer viewed as important as it once was. 2 and 4 are tops with 5 and 1 worth more than 3.

Go figure.

The numbers don't matter, as long as Soto bats directly in front of the next-best longball hitter, who will benefit immensely facing exhausted pitchers after Juan's trademark marathon and terrifying (to them) at bats. 

See Judge, circa 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The 3 hole is no longer viewed as important as it once was. 2 and 4 are tops with 5 and 1 worth more than 3.

Go figure.

Mind you the logic is really simple and the stats have borne it out - the 3 hole gets fewer RBI opportunities than 4 or 5, mainly because of a lot of first innings with the first 2 guys getting out.

A lot of managers disregard this anyway.  

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Third spot is the most likely hitter to come up with 2 outs and no one on base…

With Duran and Soto 1-2, maybe not.

[vjcsmoke]

I am reading tweets that say Soto is coming to Boston. Now I don't know the credibility of these sources but it would be an incredible COUP if true. Soto is a franchise player you can build your whole team around.  I'm thinking maybe we should thinking of trading some excess players for a right handed bat to put in the first 5 of our starting lineup.

Christmas has come early in Boston should this HOLD TRUE!

 

The Tweet:

 

@BeyondAvgMick

BREAKING NEWS - The Boston Redsox have signed free agent outfielder Juan Soto. The terms of the deal are still unknown but I’m hearing it’s 12 years with no deferred money. Expect an official announcement to come within the next few days:

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

Third spot is the most likely hitter to come up with 2 outs and no one on base…

15-20 more PAs than the 4 slot and maybe 35-40 more than the 5 slot might cancel that out.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

With Duran and Soto 1-2, maybe not.

You're just saying that because Soto's career On-Base Percentage is ahead of every single batter in history since Ted Williams, except one (Bonds)... and just ahead of Mantle.

[moonslav59]

Let's see how quickly the posters who thought JH would never spend large and long, again change their views.

I'm not trying to slight anyone. This trend has been long and steady, and it begs the question on why not just keep Betts at half the price?

I think JH was hit by a 2 by 4, but it took him 3-4 years to feel the sting.

Call him a thick skull or numbskull, but if he pulls this off, I think Sox nation will breathe a great big sigh.

If we come up short... I can't even think about it, now.

 

He'd have to sign Burnes, Fried, Scott and more....

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Mind you the logic is really simple and the stats have borne it out - the 3 hole gets fewer RBI opportunities than 4 or 5, mainly because of a lot of first innings with the first 2 guys getting out.

A lot of managers disregard this anyway.  

I've seen the data, which is based on league wide averages, and the differential is pretty significant.

I do wonder, if the numbers change, if your leadoff guys has a .345 OBP and your #2 is at .420.

MLB 2024 OBP

1. .327

2. .326

[vjcsmoke]

I'm a big fan of hitters with high .OBP. They generate value regardless. A guy who gets on with a walk is just as valuable as a baserunner as one who hit a single. It seems tough to find those high OBP leadoff guys though.

Durran is coming off his best year yet and his OBP was only .342 but the 54 walks certainly contributed to him scoring 111 runs. Hopefully he can maintain those numbers. If he gets better hitters behind him and maintains plate discipline I can easily see him scoring 110-120 runs for us.

 

 

[Deja Doh]

What is up with all the ads on the board.  It's almost unreadable now.

Anyway if we were able to sign Soto, we should look to unload Devers and Story who are just long term liabilities.  We need a second baseman and pitchers.  But the Dodgers and Yankees are now closing in on Soto.    

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I'm a big fan of hitters with high .OBP. They generate value regardless. A guy who gets on with a walk is just as valuable as a baserunner as one who hit a single. It seems tough to find those high OBP leadoff guys though.

Durran is coming off his best year yet and his OBP was only .342 but the 54 walks certainly contributed to him scoring 111 runs. Hopefully he can maintain those numbers. If he gets better hitters behind him and maintains plate discipline I can easily see him scoring 110-120 runs for us.

 

 

 

2 minutes ago, vjcsmoke said:

I'm a big fan of hitters with high .OBP. They generate value regardless. A guy who gets on with a walk is just as valuable as a baserunner as one who hit a single. It seems tough to find those high OBP leadoff guys though.

Durran is coming off his best year yet and his OBP was only .342 but the 54 walks certainly contributed to him scoring 111 runs. Hopefully he can maintain those numbers. If he gets better hitters behind him and maintains plate discipline I can easily see him scoring 110-120 runs for us.

 

 

He can also turn a BB into a 2B with a SB. His ability to score from 1B on a 2B cannot be forgotten, either.

I'm not sure I have ever seen a baserunner take an extra base more than Duran did in 2024. Many times it looked easier than it was.

[Duran Is The Man]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Let's see how quickly the posters who thought JH would never spend large and long, again change their views.

I'm not trying to slight anyone. This trend has been long and steady, and it begs the question on why not just keep Betts at half the price?

I think JH was hit by a 2 by 4, but it took him 3-4 years to feel the sting.

Call him a thick skull or numbskull, but if he pulls this off, I think Sox nation will breathe a great big sigh.

If we come up short... I can't even think about it, now.

 

He'd have to sign Burnes, Fried, Scott and more....

he still hasn't spent anything yet.

[Hitch]

This is just our airplane to Toronto moment isn't it? 👨‍🍼

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he still hasn't spent anything yet.

Yup.

This could be a massive letdown, and when coupled with the loss of Betts, 5 years ago, could be the final nail in JH's coffin.

He'd have been better off keeping any offers quiet.

[Bellhorn04]

12 minutes ago, Hitch said:

This is just our airplane to Toronto moment isn't it? 👨‍🍼

Yes, I've already seen references to that LOL.

[Deja Doh]

1 minute ago, vjcsmoke said:

I'm a big fan of hitters with high .OBP. They generate value regardless. A guy who gets on with a walk is just as valuable as a baserunner as one who hit a single. It seems tough to find those high OBP leadoff guys though.

Durran is coming off his best year yet and his OBP was only .342 but the 54 walks certainly contributed to him scoring 111 runs. Hopefully he can maintain those numbers. If he gets better hitters behind him and maintains plate discipline I can easily see him scoring 110-120 runs for us.

 

 

An OBP of 0.34 is rather poor for the power positions (outfield and the corners),.  No real big money should be given to any offensive player if their OBP is less than ~0.350 and I would push that to 0.365.

[Bellhorn04]

36 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

What is up with all the ads on the board.  It's almost unreadable now.

It's what keeps the lights on, as the saying goes.

It's worth it for all these pearls of wisdom, though, right?  😄

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

An OBP of 0.34 is rather poor for the power positions (outfield and the corners),.  No real big money should be given to any offensive player if their OBP is less than ~0.350 and I would push that to 0.365.

MLB average OBP was only .312 this year, though.

My go-to stat for power hitters is OPS+.  It's a simple stat and it's adjusted for ballpark factors and league averages. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't care what the metrics say about "batting third" ( oh my), or if Soto-Devers bat 2-3 or 3-4 or 8-9; they are going to hit back-to-back somewhere, in the best interests of maximizing an epic 1-2 punch.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't care what the metrics say about "batting third" ( oh my), or if Soto-Devers bat 2-3 or 3-4 or 8-9; they are going to hit back-to-back somewhere, in the best interests of maximizing an epic 1-2 punch.

And I have already voiced my suspicions (to my son, at least) that these Boston "leaks" are merely a Boras ploy to get NY NY to just bid higher...

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I don't care what the metrics say about "batting third" ( oh my), or if Soto-Devers bat 2-3 or 3-4 or 8-9; they are going to hit back-to-back somewhere, in the best interests of maximizing an epic 1-2 punch.

Yeah, I'm certainly not opposed to it.  

They might have to give Cora a few weeks of shock therapy, though, after they tell him he has to hit lefties back to back every day.  

Listen to me talking like this is real. 😛

[moonslav59]

MLB OBP

.312 in 2024 (and 2022) It was .320 in 2023.

.312 is the lowest since 1972.

It was over .330, every year, from 2004 to 2009. That's a 20 point drop from over a decade ago. It was above .340 3 times from 1996 to 2000.

I think one could argue that .340 is the "new" .350 or even .360. Duran was at about .345 from '23 to '24, which is the 20 point from from your .365.

Out of 115 batters with 1,000+ PAs since 2023, Duran places 38th at .343- just behind Jose Ramirez and Gunnar Henderson, but ahead of Bregman and Lindor.

He's 49th out of 186 with 800+ PAs.

57th out of 271 with 600+ (top 21%)

[Hitch]

According to 

@mikedeportes

, the Red Sox have a 12-year, $50M per year deal on the table to Juan Soto, who spoke on the phone with Rafael Devers for an hour about the Sox.

 

Mike reports that Soto is interested in the idea of going to the Red Sox and they are a strong contender.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hitch said:

According to 

@mikedeportes

, the Red Sox have a 12-year, $50M per year deal on the table to Juan Soto, who spoke on the phone with Rafael Devers for an hour about the Sox.

 

Mike reports that Soto is interested in the idea of going to the Red Sox and they are a strong contender.

I'd think if $600M/12 is that close to sealing the deal, we could go to $640M/14, if someone counters.