Article: Masataka Yoshida’s Shoulder Injury Threatens Season Start and Trade Value

[Brandon Glick]

Masataka Yoshida's shoulder injury proved to be as serious as previously feared, and the Boston designated hitter's availability for the start of the 2025 season is in question.

Since signing a five-year, $90-million contract in December 2022, Masataka Yoshida has mostly lived up to his profile, but failed to deliver on the great ceiling that his seven-year run in the NPB with the Orix Buffaloes portended: a .327/.421/.539 slash line with 133 home runs. Over his first two seasons with the Red Sox, the former outfielder has played in 248 of a possible 324 games, accrued 2.8 WAR, posted an OPS of .775 and OPS+ of 111, and produced 82 extra-base hits. That’s hardly a porous performance, but for a guy making $18 million per year — tied for the third-highest figure on the team last year, behind only Rafael Devers and Trevor Story — it pales in comparison to what the team needs.

Of course, Yoshida was dealing with multiple injury issues this past year, including a left thumb strain that sidelined him for nearly six weeks during the first half. Over the past month, fans have also become privy to a previously undisclosed shoulder injury that required Yoshida to get an MRI in late-September. On Wednesday, we found out the severity of that injury, as the team announced that Yoshida had shoulder surgery nearly two weeks ago.

Naturally, shoulder injuries are a big deal for hitters, and the timeline for previous labrum surgeries offers a wide range of possible outcomes for Yoshida’s recovery. Baseball Prospectus’s Recovery Dashboard, lists six position players who underwent shoulder labrum surgery since 2016, as well as how long it took for them to return to game action in the major leagues.

Year	Player	Days
2016	Greg Bird	183
2019	Miguel Andujar	140
2023	Brendan Rodgers	128
2023	Garrett Mitchell	162
2023	Logan O'Hoppe	119
2023	Vinnie Pasquantino	114
	Average	141
	Median	134

The average player rehabbed for roughly 4.5 months, so assuming an average recovery, that would put Yoshida’s return at February 21, 2025. That’s exactly one week after pitchers and catchers report on February 14, and two days after the first full-squad workouts begin on February 19. Now, there’s a wide range of outcomes in that table, and the best-case scenario appears to be a sub-four-month rehab period, while the longest recovery window was more than six months. That means Yoshida could be ready to roll before Spring Training starts, or he could be out until late April. Most importantly, this is a small data set of players with similar surgeries. The severity of Yoshida’s injury is unknown to the public, and his exact timeline could differ for any number of reasons.

Thus, fans should expect the Red Sox to act in accordance with the information they have. If they know Yoshida will be out for longer, a free agent move for another big bat (Alex Bregman? Teoscar Hernández?) would be even more advisable than it already is, and could also put Boston squarely in the trade market for a big bopper to slot in alongside Devers and Tristan Casas in the heart of the order. Alternatively, if there's reason for optimism about Yoshida’s health prior to Spring Training, the BoSox could use that as an excuse to not open up the purse strings this Winter. 

This news also further wrecks Yoshida’s trade value, which was already a huge question mark last offseason, when the then-primary left fielder was deemed to have an “untradeable contract”. Yoshida simply won't command much in a trade as a designated hitter without a ton of over-the-fence power. However, improved plate discipline (his strikeout and walk rates improved from 2023 to 2024), and an increased fly ball rate (19.4% in 2023, 24.4% in 2024) could have at least given the Red Sox some added leverage in discussions. There's an argument to be made that Yoshida managed an above-average season at the plate despite playing hurt all year, and that he could improve once he's fully healthy. Still, no team will be champing at the bit to acquire $54 million in remaining salary for a player who went under the knife just two weeks ago.

For now, Yoshida will remain in Boston while rehabbing his injury, and the Red Sox will wade into one of the most important offseasons in recent memory with one of their highest-paid players as a gigantic unknown.

 

View full article

[Duran Is The Man]

thanks Bloom.

[Larry Cook]

Yoshida and a bag of cash to Arizona for Jordan Montgomery! Arizona owner wants Montgomery gone and we want yoshida moved 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Yoshida and a bag of cash to Arizona for Jordan Montgomery! Arizona owner wants Montgomery gone and we want yoshida moved 

I'd do it.

[Old Red]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd do it.

You guys crack me up always advocating for JH to pay some of his hard earned money on another Red Sox player to play for someone else, and then going out, and paying someone else even more money to play for the Red Sox. The Red Sox already have a one year pitcher in Gio, and now you want another one in Monty, who most likely opt out of his contract anyway.🙈🤭

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You guys crack me up always advocating for JH to pay some of his hard earned money on another Red Sox player to play for someone else, and then going out, and paying someone else even more money to play for the Red Sox. The Red Sox already have a one year pitcher in Gio, and now you want another one in Monty, who most likely opt out of his contract anyway.🙈🤭

I'd advocate for Masa to leave and be replaced by internal options instead of FA ones. 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd advocate for Masa to leave and be replaced by internal options instead of FA ones. 

Yes, but the deal mentioned here was for a pitcher.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's face it, this is just one more reason for them to punt again.

"Things just didn't line up for us this year, but there will come a time they do, and it's coming soon." - Sam Kennedy, January, 2025. 

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd advocate for Masa to leave and be replaced by internal options instead of FA ones. 

That is fine with me, too- better even, but I seriously doubt sany takers are out there, at least until they see how he does after surgery.

Getting another big salary, who pitches, seems like a more likely way to shed Yoshi from the roster.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

Let's face it, this is just one more reason for them to punt again.

"Things just didn't line up for us this year, but there will come a time they do, and it's coming soon." - Sam Kennedy, January, 2025. 

I certainly think they may view this year as a punt or more like a "quick kick" as it will be disguised as a real non punt play.

However, I really think are "there," now, and one could even argue we could have been there, this year, with just no Sale trade and a different SP'er signing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Sam, body-surfing again: "Not this one, the next one!"

[Bellhorn04]

44 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I certainly think they may view this year as a punt or more like a "quick kick" as it will be disguised as a real non punt play.

However, I really think are "there," now, and one could even argue we could have been there, this year, with just no Sale trade and a different SP'er signing.

I'd argue that playing .400 ball after the ASB does not really suggest being "there", unless we're using Advanced Pollyannalytics...

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd advocate for Masa to leave and be replaced by internal options instead of FA ones. 

Why?

Yoshida had an .825 OPS on August 19.  After that point it was .608 through the rest of the season.  It’s possible that was when his shoulder issues started.  
 

If healthy, an .825 OPS from Yoshida seems possible, and IMO is perfectly acceptable.  People have wished we retained Schwarber, but his OPS in Philadelphia is .832.  I don’t think the barrier for unacceptable performance from a DH sits between .825 and .832..

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Why?

Yoshida had an .825 OPS on August 19.  After that point it was .608 through the rest of the season.  It’s possible that was when his shoulder issues started.  
 

If healthy, an .825 OPS from Yoshida seems possible, and IMO is perfectly acceptable.  People have wished we retained Schwarber, but his OPS in Philadelphia is .832.  I don’t think the barrier for unacceptable performance from a DH sits between .825 and .832..

That's some fine Pollyannalytics, sir!

Comparing Yoshida's possible to Schwarber's real, and tossing out games played, Park Factor etc!

Well done! 

[notin]

20 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's some fine Pollyannalytics, sir!

Comparing Yoshida's possible to Schwarber's real, and tossing out games played, Park Factor etc!

Well done! 

If Yoshida didn’t have shoulder surgery, it would be more suspect.  But we do know he injured his shoulder and that definitely would have impacted his hitting.  The man actually is a good hitter whose numbers in Japan are similar to several other players who have come over to the USA and been successful.  And he absolutely was hitting well this year until August 19.  It’s extremely possible his shoulder issues started around that date if not actually on it.

Id like to have used OPS+, as Fenway (105) was slightly better for hitters than Citizens Bank (102).  But unfortunately those numbers are not available for partial seasons.

Yoshida might be overpaid.  But I think he’s also undervalued…

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I'd argue that playing .400 ball after the ASB does not really suggest being "there", unless we're using Advanced Pollyannalytics...

We'd have probably made the playoffs with Sale, and even subbing just Stroman for Gio.

That might not be "there," but some could argue so.

[harmony]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Yoshida and a bag of cash to Arizona for Jordan Montgomery! Arizona owner wants Montgomery gone and we want yoshida moved 

Of course if Arizona wants to move Jordan Montgomery, the Red Sox would need to top all offers from other teams.

How much cash would the Red Sox be willing to add to a trade of Masataka Yoshida?

 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, harmony said:

Of course if Arizona wants to move Jordan Montgomery, the Red Sox would need to top all offers from other teams.

How much cash would the Red Sox be willing to add to a trade of Masataka Yoshida?

 

AMAIT.

[moonslav59]

It makes more sense, to me, if we end up paying off much of Yoshi's contract by taking back a pitcher's salary, instead of just cash.

I'm not sure Monty has "plus value," so topping other team offers might not be what harmony is suggesting. Any Monty trade might be more about how much AZ is willing to pay down and not what the return package might be.

Here is just a made up example of possibly 2 choices:

A. We pay $13M x 3 for Yoshi to play somewhere else and get nothing in return.

B. We end up with the same net contract cost as A, but have Monty on the roster at no added cost to net A costs. (Or, maybe we end up paying $2-6M more and have Monty vs nothing from A.)

Can someone say why B is not a better idea? (I'm not saying finding a trade like that is easy or possible.)

 

[Bellhorn04]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We'd have probably made the playoffs with Sale, and even subbing just Stroman for Gio.

That might not be "there," but some could argue so.

Yes, we traded away a pitcher who had a 6 win season, and those 6 wins would have put us in.

But we're talking about where we stand for 2025.  How do we get those 6 more wins?  By signing Burnes and Fried?

And we also have to replace Pivetta/Jansen/Martin/O'Neill.

We're really not "just about there" barring Anthony and Campbell being instant stars and Brez pulling rabbits out of his hat IMHO.

I'm afraid we're still in the position that our head coach, JH, thinks we need to punt again.   

[Bellhorn04]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

It makes more sense, to me, if we end up paying off much of Yoshi's contract by taking back a pitcher's salary, instead of just cash.

I'm not sure Monty has "plus value," so topping other team offers might not be what harmony is suggesting. Any Monty trade might be more about how much AZ is willing to pay down and not what the return package might be.

Here is just a made up example of possibly 2 choices:

A. We pay $13M x 3 for Yoshi to play somewhere else and get nothing in return.

B. We end up with the same net contract cost as A, but have Monty on the roster at no added cost to net A costs. (Or, maybe we end up paying $2-6M more and have Monty vs nothing from A.)

Can someone say why B is not a better idea? (I'm not saying finding a trade like that is easy or possible.)

 

Please explain B and what would motivate Arizona to do it.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Please explain B and what would motivate Arizona to do it.

I've said it might be impossible to find someone to do a deal like that, because they'd probably just prefer to save as much money as possible and not take on another big contract:

Pay enough of Yoshida's contract to make AZ still save money over paying Monty, instead.

They save money and get a batter.

We pay a little more money than we pay Yoshida, not, but we get a pitcher. like Monty, who could turn tings around in '25.

Maybe we pay $4M more than we do with Yoshida and get a pitcher. In theory, we then replace Yoshida at DH with better batters: Ref v LHPs and ___ vs RHPs (Abreu? the possible GG winner, if Anthony plays RF?)

Like I said, why wouldn't AZ just get someone to take Monty and almost all his contract? Even if they like Yoshida, they can probably do better.

I have yet to come up with this theoretical type trade that I think both sides might say yes.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/18/2024 at 6:17 AM, moonslav59 said:

That is fine with me, too- better even, but I seriously doubt sany takers are out there, at least until they see how he does after surgery.

Getting another big salary, who pitches, seems like a more likely way to shed Yoshi from the roster.

you are overvaluing what other teams think of Yoshida. Even if the Sox found a taker they would have to retain a large % of his contract and get nothing more than a low level prospect in return.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

you are overvaluing what other teams think of Yoshida. Even if the Sox found a taker they would have to retain a large % of his contract and get nothing more than a low level prospect in return.

I don't think I am. I've often said we'd have to pay almost all his salary for nothing in return- not even a "low level prospect" you mention.

Maybe, just maybe, we'd save $3-6M/yr, if some team thinks they'd pay that to a FA Yoshida.

My idea of taking another team's salary dump as part of the return is assuming the other team does not want the pitcher about as much as how little we want Yoshida. The net money exchange would still mean we pay more than they do, so they achieve their goal of cutting salary and dumping a guy they don't want, while filling a possible need at DH or with a LHB.

I've mentioned several times, that team and pitcher may not exist.

How much do you value Yoshida? Do you think he'd get a $9M/3 offer, if he was a FA? How about $12M/3 or $15M/3? That's about my range, with a tops of $18M/3. Are you much lower than that?

[Randy Red Sox]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think I am. I've often said we'd have to pay almost all his salary for nothing in return- not even a "low level prospect" you mention.

Maybe, just maybe, we'd save $3-6M/yr, if some team thinks they'd pay that to a FA Yoshida.

My idea of taking another team's salary dump as part of the return is assuming the other team does not want the pitcher about as much as how little we want Yoshida. The net money exchange would still mean we pay more than they do, so they achieve their goal of cutting salary and dumping a guy they don't want, while filling a possible need at DH or with a LHB.

I've mentioned several times, that team and pitcher may not exist.

How much do you value Yoshida? Do you think he'd get a $9M/3 offer, if he was a FA? How about $12M/3 or $15M/3? That's about my range, with a tops of $18M/3. Are you much lower than that?

first off Yoshida was a bad signing from day 1. Popular belief was that Bloom far overpaid for him. At the time he might have been a 3-4 million dollar player but right now he does not fit at all with the Sox.  NO power and is only a DH.  I'd get rid of him anyway possible.  Eat whatever $$ you need to make it happen.  A straight up trade for Montgomery will not happen for 2 reasons. 1} Henry will not approve any extra $$ for Montgomery and 2}  the other team would probably not even want Yoshida.

 

On another note do you still want the Sox to sign Flaherty?

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

first off Yoshida was a bad signing from day 1. Popular belief was that Bloom far overpaid for him.At the time he might have been a 3-4 million dollar player but right now he does not fit at all with the Sox.  NO power and is only a DH.  I'd get rid of him anyway possible. 

So, we both value him about the same.

We both want him gone. I'm just looking for another way to do it.

I'd even include a blocked prospect or two to get a return that might help.

[Randy Red Sox]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

So, we both value him about the same.

We both want him gone. I'm just looking for another way to do it.

I'd even include a blocked prospect or two to get a return that might help.

trust me i am sure that is very high on Bresslow's list this offseason.  the surgery doesn't help though.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

trust me i am sure that is very high on Bresslow's list this offseason.  the surgery doesn't help though.

No, the shoulder issue won't help, and waiting until he shows he's healthy might be the choice, but he'll take up a roster slot until then.

 

[notin]

16 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

first off Yoshida was a bad signing from day 1. Popular belief was that Bloom far overpaid for him. At the time he might have been a 3-4 million dollar player but right now he does not fit at all with the Sox.  NO power and is only a DH.  I'd get rid of him anyway possible.  Eat whatever $$ you need to make it happen.  A straight up trade for Montgomery will not happen for 2 reasons. 1} Henry will not approve any extra $$ for Montgomery and 2}  the other team would probably not even want Yoshida.

 

On another note do you still want the Sox to sign Flaherty?

It’s been said by numerous MLB personnel the Sox overpaid for Yoshida.  Not one of them said he was a $3-4mill player.  Because he isn’t; that’s utility infielder money…

[Bellhorn04]

FanGraphs has calculated Yoshida's worth in free agent dollars as :

2023 $4.9 million

2024 $6.4 million