Article: Masataka Yoshida’s Shoulder Injury Threatens Season Start and Trade Value

[mvp 78]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That has to be it, but boy, they sure projected a steep regression.

His numbers in SEA do have to be adjusted for park factors, but to me, he's a damn good pitcher. He'd be our #2 and maybe even a #1, if Houck takes a step back in '25.

If Kutter fixes the longball, they are neck and neck IMO. 

[notin]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I totally understand your point about SEA not needing a SS, and it informed me as to another possible offer being better.

When you suggested trading an OF'er to the Sox, I informed you, that an OF'er is about the last thing we need.

Yes, we need a RHB, but I do not think in the OF, despite the fact that we signed O'Neill, last winter.

If Abreu was part of the trade to SEA, then maybe we'd take a RHB OF'er as part a larger package. In terms of the Sox getting what we need, we need pitching.

Seattle doesn’t need a SS, but it’s probably the only infield position they have that doesn’t.  Per Roster Resource, their 1b is a platoon of Luke Raley and Mitch Garver, their 2b is Dylan Moore, and their 3b is a platoon with Josh Rojas and Luis Urias.  
 

They do have a prospect named Cole Young who will probably take over 2b at some point.  But the other two positions leave room for improvement.

 

I think their primary target should be Coby Mayo, the Orioles’ top prospect (MLB.com overall #2) who has nowhere to play.  But we will see if a deal can be worked out.  It becomes much more likely if Seattle is willing to part with either Miller or Woo…

 

 

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

Seattle doesn’t need a SS, but it’s probably the only infield position they have that doesn’t.  Per Roster Resource, their 1b is a platoon of Luke Raley and Mitch Garver, their 2b is Dylan Moore, and their 3b is a platoon with Josh Rojas and Luis Urias.  
 

They do have a prospect named Cole Young who will probably take over 2b at some point.  But the other two positions leave room for improvement.

 

I think their primary target should be Coby Mayo, the Orioles’ top prospect (MLB.com overall #2) who has nowhere to play.  But we will see if a deal can be worked out.  It becomes much more likely if Seattle is willing to part with either Miller or Woo…

 

 

I did mention, once that Mayer could play 2B or 3B, until Crawford's time is up.

[mvp 78]

Mariners offseason talk, catch the fever! 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Kutter fixes the longball, they are neck and neck IMO. 

Big if.

Hey, we're paying $19M a year for Gio, who slots as a 4/5- actually, it may come to $38M/1.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Is he worth his contract? Yes. Should harmony count on him repeating 2023? No. 

Castillo and Crawford are two different conversations, so I don't want to start confusing the subjects. I'm assuming Crawford has a positive value on BTV. 

On Wednesday, Baseball Trade Values assigned J.P. Crawford a surplus value of $24.5 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=j.p.+crawford&page=1

[harmony]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Seattle doesn’t need a SS, but it’s probably the only infield position they have that doesn’t.  Per Roster Resource, their 1b is a platoon of Luke Raley and Mitch Garver, their 2b is Dylan Moore, and their 3b is a platoon with Josh Rojas and Luis Urias.  
 

They do have a prospect named Cole Young who will probably take over 2b at some point.  But the other two positions leave room for improvement.

 

I think their primary target should be Coby Mayo, the Orioles’ top prospect (MLB.com overall #2) who has nowhere to play.  But we will see if a deal can be worked out.  It becomes much more likely if Seattle is willing to part with either Miller or Woo…

 

 

This offseason Seattle will likely look for upgrades at 2B and 3B even though this year Gold Glove nominee Dylan Moore posted 2.4 fWAR in 135 games (nearly matching the 2.3 fWAR Luke Raley posted in 137 games).

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

This offseason Seattle will likely look for upgrades at 2B and 3B even though this year Gold Glove nominee Dylan Moore posted 2.4 fWAR in 135 games (nearly matching the 2.3 fWAR Luke Raley posted in 137 games).

I’m betting 2b and 3b with Cole Young in mind for 2b…

[harmony]

1 hour ago, notin said:

I’m betting 2b and 3b with Cole Young in mind for 2b…

Assuming Seattle exercises the $750,000 buyout of the $12 million team option on Jorge Polanco, the Mariners may turn the 2B reins over to Ryan Bliss if an upgrade can't be found this offseason:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bliss-000rya

Gold Glove nominee Dylan Moore played 228.1 innings at third base this season but may be best remembered for committing three errors at the hot corner in the ninth inning of a 2019 win over the Red Sox:

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201903300.shtml

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/23/2024 at 6:34 AM, harmony said:

BTV says Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for two years of righthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Randy Arozarena (with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million) would be a fair deal but that does not mean the Mariners would do the trade.

i would not trade Casas for Arozarena straight up

[harmony]

2 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i would not trade Casas for Arozarena straight up

Likely no one would trade Triston Casas for Randy Arozarena straight up.

🤨

Add Masataka Yoshida's significant negative value and the Red Sox would have a bargain, according to Baseball Trade Values.

[moonslav59]

So, Texas want to cut salary ($24M gets them under the tax line, so this trade works for them on that front):

Yoshida ($54M/3 and $18M lux tax hit)

Dobbins & Winckowski

for

deGrom  ($115M/3 and $37M  lux tax hit)

Chaffin ($6.5M/1) +$1.5M cash

 

Note: I'm not really for this trade, as I have very little faith in deGrom and am tired of rolling the dice on injury-prone pitchers.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Big if.

Hey, we're paying $19M a year for Gio, who slots as a 4/5- actually, it may come to $38M/1.

38/1? Is that how it works against the CBT? Is that how it works for cash purposes? Or is that just how it works in moon accounting land? 

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, harmony said:

On Wednesday, Baseball Trade Values assigned J.P. Crawford a surplus value of $24.5 million:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades?q=j.p.+crawford&page=1

If 1 fWAR is worth 8M, than that seems fine? I don't think there's an issue with his contract. He's a decent ballplayer, but SEA could upgrade at that position for sure. 

[mvp 78]

12 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i would not trade Casas for Arozarena straight up

Me either. 

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

38/1? Is that how it works against the CBT? Is that how it works for cash purposes? Or is that just how it works in moon accounting land? 

It's how it works in we're actually paying for - if we're lucky.

[mvp 78]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's how it works in we're actually paying for - if we're lucky.

Is that GAAP, IFRS or GAMP (Generally Accepted Moon Procedures)? 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Is that GAAP, IFRS or GAMP (Generally Accepted Moon Procedures)? 

It would be a number that measures the relationship of cost to output.  

[Hugh2]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

That has to be it, but boy, they sure projected a steep regression.

His numbers in SEA do have to be adjusted for park factors, but to me, he's a damn good pitcher. He'd be our #2 and maybe even a #1, if Houck takes a step back in '25.

Or a number 3 if if Houck doesn't and Bello takes a step forward. 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It would be a number that measures the relationship of cost to output.  

GAMP then. 

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Or a number 3 if if Houck doesn't and Bello takes a step forward. 

Bello was much better in the 2nd half of the season. We'll see if that can continue into 2025. We saw a big second half from Pivetta in 2023 and there wasn't much of a carryover into the next season. 

[harmony]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If 1 fWAR is worth 8M, than that seems fine? I don't think there's an issue with his contract. He's a decent ballplayer, but SEA could upgrade at that position for sure. 

Indeed. Many teams could upgrade at shortstop.

Despite J.P. Crawford’s injuries, this year the Seattle Mariners finished 10th among 30 MLB teams in fWAR from the shortstop position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=ss

The Red Sox finished 16th.

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bello was much better in the 2nd half of the season. We'll see if that can continue into 2025. We saw a big second half from Pivetta in 2023 and there wasn't much of a carryover into the next season. 

Bello is also very young, more room for growth than Nick Pivetta.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

Indeed. Many teams could upgrade at shortstop.

Despite J.P. Crawford’s injuries, this year the Seattle Mariners finished 10th among 30 MLB teams in fWAR from the shortstop position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=ss

The Red Sox finished 16th.

16th is a perfect ranking for the masters of mediocrity.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, harmony said:

Indeed. Many teams could upgrade at shortstop.

Despite J.P. Crawford’s injuries, this year the Seattle Mariners finished 10th among 30 MLB teams in fWAR from the shortstop position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=ss

The Red Sox finished 16th.

If the Sox were that close to SEA, SEA should be worried. Their starting SS was injured after the first week of regular season ball and didn't come back until the very end of the season. In between, they used AAA guys and Rafaela who hit under 700 OPS and had a lot of growing pains defensively early on. Maybe it says more about the state of the position than anything else? 

[harmony]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If the Sox were that close to SEA, SEA should be worried. Their starting SS was injured after the first week of regular season ball and didn't come back until the very end of the season. In between, they used AAA guys and Rafaela who hit under 700 OPS and had a lot of growing pains defensively early on. Maybe it says more about the state of the position than anything else? 

Curiously, according to fWAR, the Mariners and Red Sox finished fifth and 18th, respectively, in fWAR from the third base position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=3b

The Mariners and Red Sox finished 24th and 29th in fWAR from the second base position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=2b

The latter list identifies a consensus position of need but the first list is somewhat puzzling.

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, harmony said:

Curiously, according to fWAR, the Mariners and Red Sox finished fifth and 18th, respectively, in fWAR from the third base position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=3b

The Mariners and Red Sox finished 24th and 29th in fWAR from the second base position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=2b

The latter list identifies a consensus position of need but the first list is somewhat puzzling.

When Devers wasn't playing third, our fill-ins like Dalbec were bad.  

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

38/1? Is that how it works against the CBT? Is that how it works for cash purposes? Or is that just how it works in moon accounting land? 

It's not CBT, of course, but do you really not see how we are actually paying Gio $38.5M for 1 year? Seriously?

[moonslav59]

56 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

16th is a perfect ranking for the masters of mediocrity.

16th is actually shockingly good, considering where were were in 2023, once Story went down injured, vs the same situation in 2024. While Rafaela was a negative on SS D, he was nowhere near as bad as Kike and others at SS in 2023.

With Mayer joining the mix in 2025 and perhaps a healthy Story, maybe we can get to top 10 in fWAR at SS.

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, harmony said:

Curiously, according to fWAR, the Mariners and Red Sox finished fifth and 18th, respectively, in fWAR from the third base position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=3b

The Mariners and Red Sox finished 24th and 29th in fWAR from the second base position:

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2024&month=0&season1=2024&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=&age=&filter=&players=0&pos=2b

The latter list identifies a consensus position of need but the first list is somewhat puzzling.

Devers was 3rd in MLB in fWAR at 3B. 

Dalbec -.7

Reyes -.7

Short -.2