Article: Masataka Yoshida’s Shoulder Injury Threatens Season Start and Trade Value

[notin]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

5-8M that another team would pick up is still savings for an owner that is hesitant about going over the CBT. 

Campbell

Anthony

Mayer

Teel

Meidroth

I would be surprised if any were considered for DH.

But if they dealt Yoshida (and $13mill) for Garver, the Sox save $27mill over three seasons - equal to paying half of Yoshida’s contract.  If Garver struggles, he’s a DFA candidate with no impact on the payroll beyond 2025. At that point, you can bring up Anthony/Campbell/whoever to replace his vacated spot and it winds up being exactly like your scenario…

[moonslav59]

43 minutes ago, harmony said:

BTV says Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for two years of righthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Randy Arozarena (with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million) would be a fair deal but that does not mean the Mariners would do the trade.

Doing this trade would necessitate a trade of Abreu to uncrowd the OF and balance the L-R skew.

I'd only do this, if the plan is to move Devers to 1B and Campbell or Mayer (Grissom?) to 3B for 2025... not to sign Bregman.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, notin said:

I would be surprised if any were considered for DH.

But if they dealt Yoshida (and $13mill) for Garver, the Sox save $27mill over three seasons - equal to paying half of Yoshida’s contract.  If Garver struggles, he’s a DFA candidate with no impact on the payroll beyond 2025. At that point, you can bring up Anthony/Campbell/whoever to replace his vacated spot and it winds up being exactly like your scenario…

Even DH'ing GG candidate Abreu would seem like a waste.

Ref vs LHPs, yes.

Who vs RHPs is in doubt. I mentioned E Valdez as a longshot choice. Maybe DHam, if 2B is covered vs RHPs, but he's our best defensive 2Bman.

Devers as a FT DH could work, but then we need 3B covered.

[harmony]

25 minutes ago, notin said:

What’s your point?  BTV never says any team would make a trade.  And if anyone turns down Casas/ Yoshida for Arozarena, it’s probably not Seattle.

But it if they do like Yoshida, I would think unloading Garver would certainly be Seattle’s preference, especially with Boston chipping in 25% of Yoshida’s contract.  I think the Mariners like Arozarena more than you do.  Not to mention, in your proposal, Seattle pays for all of Yoshida and Garver and then has to fill a vacancy in LF as well.  And Garver becomes a $13mill backup 1b/DH coming off an abysmal season…

Under this unlikely proposal, the Mariners would turn left field over to Luke Raley, who this year posted a wRC+ of 129 and 2.3 fWAR in 137 games (Randy Arozarena this year posted a wRC+ of 114 and 1.9 fWAR in 154 games, including a wRC+ of 122 and 0.9 fWAR in 54 games with Seattle).

The Mariners probably like Arozarena better than his escalating salary. The M's essentially would be paying Masataka Yoshida's inflated salary for the potential production of Triston Casas at below market cost.

Seattle would be saddled with two overpaid designated hitters although Mitch Garver could still serve as backup catcher. The M's hope that Garver will come in somewhere between his 2023 wRC+ of 140 and his 2024 wRC+ of 88, perhaps near his career wRC+ of 116.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

BTV says Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for two years of righthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Randy Arozarena (with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million) would be a fair deal but that does not mean the Mariners would do the trade.

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. like the Red Sox would do this.

[notin]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even DH'ing GG candidate Abreu would seem like a waste.

Ref vs LHPs, yes.

Who vs RHPs is in doubt. I mentioned E Valdez as a longshot choice. Maybe DHam, if 2B is covered vs RHPs, but he's our best defensive 2Bman.

Devers as a FT DH could work, but then we need 3B covered.

This is why I try Garver.

If he fails, he doesn’t have to stay all year.  And then the guys with options like Valdez can be a plan.  Or one of the untried prospects.
 

If Yoshida flounders, he’s back in 2026, and likely 2027 and 2028 as well.

 

If the goal is to unload Yoshida, I think this is the most risk-averse plan…

[notin]

15 minutes ago, harmony said:

Under this unlikely proposal, the Mariners would turn left field over to Luke Raley, who this year posted a wRC+ of 129 and 2.3 fWAR in 137 games (Randy Arozarena this year posted a wRC+ of 114 and 1.9 fWAR in 154 games, including a wRC+ of 122 and 0.9 fWAR in 54 games with Seattle).

The Mariners probably like Arozarena better than his escalating salary. The M's essentially would be paying Masataka Yoshida's inflated salary for the potential production of Triston Casas at below market cost.

Seattle would be saddled with two overpaid designated hitters although Mitch Garver could still serve as backup catcher. The M's hope that Garver will come in somewhere between his 2023 wRC+ of 140 and his 2024 wRC+ of 88, perhaps near his career wRC+ of 116.

It’s a perfect solution for the Mariners!! Trade away your $12mill starting left fielder so you can better afford a $13mill backup catcher!!

[mvp 78]

52 minutes ago, notin said:

I would be surprised if any were considered for DH.

But if they dealt Yoshida (and $13mill) for Garver, the Sox save $27mill over three seasons - equal to paying half of Yoshida’s contract.  If Garver struggles, he’s a DFA candidate with no impact on the payroll beyond 2025. At that point, you can bring up Anthony/Campbell/whoever to replace his vacated spot and it winds up being exactly like your scenario…

None of them would be a permanent solution at DH, but the AB's have to go somewhere! 

[mvp 78]

48 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Even DH'ing GG candidate Abreu would seem like a waste.

Ref vs LHPs, yes.

Who vs RHPs is in doubt. I mentioned E Valdez as a longshot choice. Maybe DHam, if 2B is covered vs RHPs, but he's our best defensive 2Bman.

Devers as a FT DH could work, but then we need 3B covered.

Great, so no room for Mayer, Anthony or Campbell on this roster that wasn't good enough to get in the playoffs then? 

[moonslav59]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

This is why I try Garver.

If he fails, he doesn’t have to stay all year.  And then the guys with options like Valdez can be a plan.  Or one of the untried prospects.
 

If Yoshida flounders, he’s back in 2026, and likely 2027 and 2028 as well.

 

If the goal is to unload Yoshida, I think this is the most risk-averse plan…

If Garver is the only way we can dump most of Yoshi's contract and maybe get some kind of production out of the return, I'm okay with it, but getting back a DH, is not what I'd like. I'd rather get a pitcher who has a 5% chance of doing just okay in 2025. 

I also think we have an overload of batters, and I have more faith in the 3 prospects than some. I know none fit the DH profile, but I'd be fine with using the DH to rotate players for "rest" instead of giving them 5-10 days off. Play Ref at DH vs every LHP, and then "rest" guys at DH vs RHPs: Devers 10 games, instead of 5 days off, Abreu, Duran, Casas, DHam, Wong and maybe even DHam or Story, here and there.

I do think E Valdez has a close to equal shot at doing well vs RHPs as Garver.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Great, so no room for Mayer, Anthony or Campbell on this roster that wasn't good enough to get in the playoffs then? 

Do they need to be there in April?

Over the course of a season, players will get hurt, released, demoted, benched, traded, etc.  When was the last time a team went 162 games without calling someone up?  The opportunities will be there.  No need to force them, and certainly no need to rely on them from day one…

[harmony]

18 minutes ago, notin said:

This is why I try Garver.

If he fails, he doesn’t have to stay all year.  And then the guys with options like Valdez can be a plan.  Or one of the untried prospects.
 

If Yoshida flounders, he’s back in 2026, and likely 2027 and 2028 as well.

 

If the goal is to unload Yoshida, I think this is the most risk-averse plan…

Which is precisely why the Mariners prefer Mitch Garver over Masataka Yoshida unless they're getting an important piece back.

[harmony]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

It’s a perfect solution for the Mariners!! Trade away your $12mill starting left fielder so you can better afford a $13mill backup catcher!!

Which ignores the primary trade target of Triston Casas.

[harmony]

32 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. like the Red Sox would do this.

Are the Red Sox in love with the $55.6 million remaining on the contract of Masataka Yoshida, who has posted only 1.4 fWAR, valued at $11.2 million, in 248 games with the Sox? Do the Red Sox hope to balance out their lefty-heavy lineup?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, harmony said:

Which is precisely why the Mariners prefer Mitch Garver over Masataka Yoshida unless they're getting an important piece back.

After all the money changes hands, the Mariners would get Yoshida for $9mill per year.  That’s only slightly more than Isiah Kiner-Falefa money.  That alone makes Yoshida an important piece.  
 

Or they could roll out Garver and the same lineup that missed the postseason in 2024…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, harmony said:

Which ignores the primary trade target of Triston Casas.

The Mariners don’t want a $13mill backup catcher regardless of Casas…

[harmony]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

After all the money changes hands, the Mariners would get Yoshida for $9mill per year.  That’s only slightly more than Isiah Kiner-Falefa money.  That alone makes Yoshida an important piece.  
 

Or they could roll out Garver and the same lineup that missed the postseason in 2024…

Or the Red Sox could keep Masataka Yoshida and miss the postseason for the fourth year in a row in search of their first winning season since 2021.

Each franchise faces challenges.

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Great, so no room for Mayer, Anthony or Campbell on this roster that wasn't good enough to get in the playoffs then? 

Huh?

I'm all for adding Campbell and Anthony to the 40 and 26 on day 1 or 2 of the season. (Day 2, if we need to wait to place someone on the 60 IL to make room for them.)

The day Story gets hurt, I add Mayer to the 40 and 26, unless he's hurt, too.

I'm NOT for adding Garver. We have too many players that are better hitters than he is vs RHPs. We have ref vs LHPs.

We can put DHam, Romy, Grissom and even Rafaela in AAA, if we need room on the 26 for a big 3.

I think adding the big 2 or 3, plus 3 key additions would get us to favorites to make the playoffs.

[notin]

13 minutes ago, harmony said:

Or the Red Sox could keep Masataka Yoshida and miss the postseason for the fourth year in a row in search of their first winning season since 2021.

Each franchise faces challenges.

The difference seems to be only one of them requires unreasonable trade requests involving trading a league average left fielder for a minimum wage 1b with all star potential in order to climb back into relevance…

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

The difference seems to be only one of them requires unreasonable trade requests involving trading a league average left fielder for a minimum wage 1b with all star potential in order to climb back into relevance…

I don't see a Garver-Yoshida swap as something SEA would want. They are done paying Garver, after this year. Now, add a guy like Casas or a lesser one, and they'd perk right up. We'd need more than Garver, if we added Casas.

[harmony]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see a Garver-Yoshida swap as something SEA would want. They are done paying Garver, after this year. Now, add a guy like Casas or a lesser one, and they'd perk right up. We'd need more than Garver, if we added Casas.

That’s why the proposal had Randy Arozarena, whose comp dating back to last offseason was Teoscar Hernandez.

An exodus from T-Mobile Park does wonders for righthanded power hitters (such as Adrian Beltre).

[notin]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see a Garver-Yoshida swap as something SEA would want. They are done paying Garver, after this year. Now, add a guy like Casas or a lesser one, and they'd perk right up. We'd need more than Garver, if we added Casas.

His proposal was Arozarena for Casas and Yoshida with no money involved (which he comically thinks Seattle would be the team to walk away from).  It’s one of those “but it works for my team” trades that makes no sense for Boston as it creates voids at 1b and DH while overfilling their OF.  And creates excessive bench spending in Seattle.  I don’t think either side would like that trade.

 

Now if Seattle actually likes Yoshida (unknown) they might deal Garver for him if the money makes sense..

[notin]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't see a Garver-Yoshida swap as something SEA would want. They are done paying Garver, after this year. Now, add a guy like Casas or a lesser one, and they'd perk right up. We'd need more than Garver, if we added Casas.

Per BTV, Casas’ equivalent is Cal Raleigh.

I would make that swap…

[notin]

16 minutes ago, harmony said:

That’s why the proposal had Randy Arozarena, whose comp dating back to last offseason was Teoscar Hernandez.

An exodus from T-Mobile Park does wonders for righthanded power hitters (such as Adrian Beltre).

If the Sox had interest in Arozarena, I’d expect the trade to include someone more like Winckowski than Casas…

[Maxbialystock]

Meh.  I would have been fine with trading/dumping Yoshida, but I also don't think keeping him is the end of Red Sox baseball as we know it.  

[moonslav59]

59 minutes ago, harmony said:

That’s why the proposal had Randy Arozarena, whose comp dating back to last offseason was Teoscar Hernandez.

An exodus from T-Mobile Park does wonders for righthanded power hitters (such as Adrian Beltre).

The last thing we need is an OF'er.

Now, Casas, Yoshida and Fitts for Bryce Miller, and maybe...

(Maybe Castillo with no Fitts, instead of Miller)

[harmony]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Per BTV, Casas’ equivalent is Cal Raleigh.

I would make that swap…

Four years of a disappointing former top prospect for three years of, by some measures, the top catcher in baseball?

😃😃😁

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26119/cal-raleigh

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&pos=c&qual=10&season1=2022&season=2024

Math check: BTV currently has Cal Raleigh undervalued at $28.7 million and Triston Casas valued at $18.7 million.

[moonslav59]

Yes, all Mariner players are undervalued.

Sox players are overvalued or correctly valued by BTV.

[notin]

1 hour ago, harmony said:

Four years of a disappointing former top prospect for three years of, by some measures, the top catcher in baseball?

😃😃😁

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/player/market-value/_/id/26119/cal-raleigh

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&pos=c&qual=10&season1=2022&season=2024

Math check: BTV currently has Cal Raleigh undervalued at $28.7 million and Triston Casas valued at $18.7 million.

Casas is disappointing?  Sure he hasn’t won an MVP yet, but it might be premature to lump him in with Dustin Ackley already.

Actually BTV recently dropped Casas down from 27.9 to 18.7, which means they’re updating players.  Raleigh’s value could go down as well if he hasn’t already been updated…

[harmony]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

BTV says Triston Casas and Masataka Yoshida for two years of righthand-hitting Seattle outfielder Randy Arozarena (with a projected 2025 salary of $11.7 million) would be a fair deal but that does not mean the Mariners would do the trade.

Pardon my math.

Baseball Trade Values gives the Red Sox $6 million in surplus value from Randy Arozarena and gives the Mariners a net negative $5 million value from Triston Casas (+18.7) and Masataka Yoshima (-23.7).

In other words, a significant overpay by the Mariners.