A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

My view throughout the off seeason is that the Sox nees to improve on defense and to do more to balance their lineup with right hand bats, preferably with some power. In my view Yoshida is not a good fit for Boston in either category (defense, balance). Is it still too late to trade for a right handed outfielder? Trade Yoshida and if necessary Abreau to make it happen.

A trade for another quality right handed hitting catcher doesn't seem to be in the offing so an outfielder makes sense.

Rafaela's hitting reamains suspect so I don't expect he will begin the year as more than a utility player.  I don't see him as filling the need.

Realistically Devers  and Casas will remain at the corners and we would like to see the Sox take advantage of our high performance prospects. Anthony  in the outfield and Campbell at 2nd base while avoiding a major commitment to an older player who would wind up out of his best position. I woulld roll the dice in the direction of our prospects.

Can Mayer also be brought up and given reps at SS against some RH pitching? That's a tougher call but I hate to see him languish in the minors if he has true ML capability.

Over the years I have lost confidence that Sox management has a plan to make the team truly competitive.

Solid post, again. 

I don't think Yoshida is tradeable, and throwing in a good player to dump him is a hard thing to do.

I don't think we'd call up Mayer or any of the big 3 to be a sub.

We've all lost confidence in our FO. Their lack of actions, wrong actions are bad enough, but the lies and deceptions just drive it into our hearts.

[moonslav59]

Is this how we start the season?

vs RHP

1. L Duran LF

2. L DHam 2B

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF

7. L Yoshida DH

8. R Wong C

9. Rafaela CF

vs LHPs

1. L Duran CF

2. R Refsnyder LF

3. R Story SS

4. L Devers 3B

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Romy 2B

7. L Yoshida DH

8. R Wong C

9. Rafaela RF

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford

RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Weissert, Guerrero

If Campbell makes the 26, he coudl bat 2nd FT and play 2B. Ref could bat 3rd vs LHPs, and Story 5th...

[Hugh2]

I’m fairly certain Grissom would get an opportunity to start over Romy/Herbandez

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nothing against Moon, who is projecting line-ups for what's currently on the roster. But to count so heavily on Trevor Story -- who has done absolutely nothing in three years in Boston -- as a middle of the order bat underscores just how mediocre this Red Sox offense will look to opponents in pregame pitching plans:

"Just pitch around Devers and strike out Story. Eventually, Devers will get so frustrated, he'll swing with all his might at pitches out of the zone and hurt himself -- then we can just challenge everyone else."

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I’m fairly certain Grissom would get an opportunity to start over Romy/Herbandez

I agree with this. Both Romy, and DHam are just fill ins, and won’t be a any kind of tandem.

[Bellhorn04]

I have zero expectations for Grissom.  I don't think he has much of a future with the Sox.  

[Old Red]

11 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Is this how we start the season?

vs RHP

1. L Duran LF

2. L DHam 2B

3. L Casas 1B

4. L Devers 3B

5. R Story SS

6. L Abreu RF

7. L Yoshida DH

8. R Wong C

9. Rafaela CF

vs LHPs

1. L Duran CF

2. R Refsnyder LF

3. R Story SS

4. L Devers 3B

5. L Casas 1B

6. R Romy 2B

7. L Yoshida DH

8. R Wong C

9. Rafaela RF

SP: Crochet, Houck, Buehler, Bello, Giolito, Crawford

RP: Hendriks, Chapman, Slaten, Whitlock, Winckowski, Wilson, Weissert, Guerrero

If Campbell makes the 26, he coudl bat 2nd FT and play 2B. Ref could bat 3rd vs LHPs, and Story 5th...

No, and No. I think as is today Raf Man will be the FT CF, and Duran will be the FT LF, and won’t be doing all this moving around.

[Old Red]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I have zero expectations for Grissom.  I don't think he has much of a future with the Sox.  

You may be right, but I don’t see Romy, and DHam being the 2B combo.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

You may be right, but I don’t see Romy, and DHam being the 2B combo.

Hopefully it'll be Campbell at some point, and preferably sooner than later.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hopefully it'll be Campbell at some point, and preferably sooner than later.

I don’t know how soon the plan is for him to make the 26, but most likely he’ll get plenty of AB’s in ST.

[Duran Is The Man]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I have zero expectations for Grissom.  I don't think he has much of a future with the Sox.  

agreed. another brilliant move by the geniuses in the Sox front office.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

agreed. another brilliant move by the geniuses in the Sox front office.

Did Brez buy a lemon from the Braves while paying for Sale to win a Cy Young with the Braves?🙈🤭

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

I’m fairly certain Grissom would get an opportunity to start over Romy/Herbandez

I think Grissom will get a long hard look in ST'ing and with all things looking even, might get the nod over Romy v LHPs, but I can't see why we'd start him vs RHPs over DHam, who plays much better 2B D and can steal 50-60 bases over 160 games. (Also, Romy was one of our better hitters vs LHPs, in 2024.)

Who is Herbandez?

[notin]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Did Brez buy a lemon from the Braves while paying for Sale to win a Cy Young with the Braves?🙈🤭

Are fans calling a 24 yo who missed spring training and had injuries a lemon because he struggled for 80 at bats?

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Old Red said:

I agree with this. Both Romy, and DHam are just fill ins, and won’t be a any kind of tandem.

They should be "fill-ins" until Campbell wins the job, which could happen by opening day.

This is about DHam/Romy vs Grissom or DHam/Romy vs DHam/Grissom, IMO.

DHam played the best D at 2B out of the 3.

DHam stole 33 bases in just 313 PAs. (Romy stole 11 in 216.)

While going by just 2024 numbers is not the way to make a choice, Grissom has done poorly for 2 straight years. (.545 OPS '23-'24) Last 2 years: Romy .680 and DHam .671 overall

2024 Splits:

v R: .

.729 DHam

.498 Romy (.460 in '23)

425 Grissom (.770 in '23)

v L: .

.879 Romy (.666 in '23)

.619 Grissom (.522 in '23)

.532 DHam

I would not say anyone is locked into any role at 2B to start 2025, and this is even beyond the Campbell option, but I'd go with a DHam-Romy 2B platoon, unless something jumps out during ST'ing or Campbell wins the job.

 

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, notin said:

Are fans calling a 24 yo who missed spring training and had injuries a lemon because he struggled for 80 at bats?

I'm not, but he wasn't very good in 2023, either, and he has not earned an inside track over DHam and Romy.

[notin]

16 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not, but he wasn't very good in 2023, either, and he has not earned an inside track over DHam and Romy.

So when last year’s 80 at bats aren’t a convincing sample size, we go to the 75 at bats from the previous year?

Here’s what we need to know about Grissom. The Sox thought enough about him to ask for him in the Sale trade.  The Braves thought enough of Grissom to make the Sox pay salary if Grissom was involved, and the Sox paid it.  And considering the Sox had at least one offer to take Sale’s entire contract, this is significant.

Add to that Grissom dominated in the minors and made MLB within the first two years of his MiLB career.

He’s very likely getting first shot at 2b over Hamilton and certainly over Romy Gonzalez, who is likely very high on the DFA list (unlike Grissom).  Certainly Kristian Campbell can derail Grissom, but i wouldn’t count on Romy/Hamilton, both of whom took a lot longer to achieve a small modicum of success and did so at an older age than Grissom…

[moonslav59]

Some trends by age...

Pre-prime or in prime....

Duran: .622 (24 & 25)> .828 (26)> .834 (27)

Devers: .897 (25)> .851 (26)> .871 (27) Had career high .916 at age 22

Casas: .766 (22)> .856 (23)>.800 (24)

Wong: .651 (25&26)>.673 (27)> .758 (28)

Abreu: .794 (24&25)

DHam: .671 (25 & 26)

Rafaela: .664 (22&23)

Back end of prime:

Yoshida: .783 (29)>.765 (30)

Story: .863 (up to age 28)> .737 (29)>.630 (30&31)

Past prime:

Refsnyder: .618 (up to age 30)>.881 (31)>.682 (32)>.830 (33)

These numbers do not prove most players improve as they near prime or reach prime. They seem to move all over the place, but the norm is usually that players do better as they near or reach ages 26-28. They may hold on through ages 29-31 and then start declining.

The vast majority of our players have not reached age 29, yet. Only Yoshida, Story and Ref are past 29, and only ref is past age 32. There is no guarantee our younger players improve, as a whole, but I do not see why we should expect regression, as STEAMER and other sites seem to be suggesting.

 

 

[Jasonbay44]

It seems like a lot of people are writing Hamilton off. He was very solid last year and improved defensively as the year went on. At the very least his speed is an asset off the bench. 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, notin said:

So when last year’s 80 at bats aren’t a convincing sample size, we go to the 75 at bats from the previous year?

Here’s what we need to know about Grissom. The Sox thought enough about him to ask for him in the Sale trade.  The Braves thought enough of Grissom to make the Sox pay salary if Grissom was involved, and the Sox paid it.  And considering the Sox had at least one offer to take Sale’s entire contract, this is significant.

Add to that Grissom dominated in the minors and made MLB within the first two years of his MiLB career.

He’s very likely getting first shot at 2b over Hamilton and certainly over Romy Gonzalez, who is likely very high on the DFA list (unlike Grissom).  Certainly Kristian Campbell can derail Grissom, but i wouldn’t count on Romy/Hamilton, both of whom took a lot longer to achieve a small modicum of success and did so at an older age than Grissom…

No, the 75 and 80 PA sample sizes are not the only reason I do not give him the imnside track you seem to be handing him, and by the way, those sample sizes were not that small, solely because of injury. They were small, in part because he sucked and was demoted. That fact should not be ignored. If it was just injuries, okay, but it wasn't. He got 234 PAs at AAA, which shows he was ready to play but they chose DHam and Romy over him. You say Cora/Brez chose ref over Romy to play RF, last year, but they also chose DHam/Romy over Grissom, too.

Grissom hit .758 w WOO, and his 2B defense sucked. He did not earn the 2B job for a reason beyond injury.

Of course, we thought very highly of him to trade Sale plus money to get him, but after hearing your arguments on why we should have traded Sale, this seems like a minor flip by now saying Sale had a lot of value,

I do not think the 2B job is anyone's, right now, but I do give the inside track to DHam vs RHPs and vs RHPs a kind of toss-up, with a slight edge to Romy.

You speak of the tiny sample sizes by Grissom, but DHam's sample size was not so tiny, and should hold some swaying power, too, right? His defense and speed are big assets over Grissom. The Romy choice is more of a toss up, as 2024 could be more of an outlier than a trend. I guess one coudl say that about DHam, too.

I see it as a close call, alla round, with Campbell as the wildcard. To me, I'd go into ST'ing thinking DHam has the inside track vs RHPs by a pretty solid margin, but the platoon side vs LHPs is close to a toss-up. I give the tiny edge to Romy due to his better D and speed. It's not so much about the 2023 and 2024 small sample sizes. Oh, and by the way, Romy's 2024 sample size was larger than Grissom's 2022 sample size, where most of his hype originated from. (216 to 156)

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

No, the 75 and 80 PA sample sizes are not the only reason I do not give him the imnside track you seem to be handing him, and by the way, those sample sizes were not that small, solely because of injury. They were small, in part because he sucked and was demoted. That fact should not be ignored. If it was just injuries, okay, but it wasn't. He got 234 PAs at AAA, which shows he was ready to play but they chose DHam and Romy over him. You say Cora/Brez chose ref over Romy to play RF, last year, but they also chose DHam/Romy over Grissom, too.

Grissom hit .758 w WOO, and his 2B defense sucked. He did not earn the 2B job for a reason beyond injury.

Of course, we thought very highly of him to trade Sale plus money to get him, but after hearing your arguments on why we should have traded Sale, this seems like a minor flip by now saying Sale had a lot of value,

I do not think the 2B job is anyone's, right now, but I do give the inside track to DHam vs RHPs and vs RHPs a kind of toss-up, with a slight edge to Romy.

You speak of the tiny sample sizes by Grissom, but DHam's sample size was not so tiny, and should hold some swaying power, too, right? His defense and speed are big assets over Grissom. The Romy choice is more of a toss up, as 2024 could be more of an outlier than a trend. I guess one coudl say that about DHam, too.

I see it as a close call, alla round, with Campbell as the wildcard. To me, I'd go into ST'ing thinking DHam has the inside track vs RHPs by a pretty solid margin, but the platoon side vs LHPs is close to a toss-up. I give the tiny edge to Romy due to his better D and speed. It's not so much about the 2023 and 2024 small sample sizes. Oh, and by the way, Romy's 2024 sample size was larger than Grissom's 2022 sample size, where most of his hype originated from. (216 to 156)

Who’s to say that either DHam, or Romy even make the 26 out of ST let alone be the 2B platoon? I think you over value both of these guys. The ONLY reason both got playing time last year was because of injuries.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Jasonbay44 said:

It seems like a lot of people are writing Hamilton off. He was very solid last year and improved defensively as the year went on. At the very least his speed is an asset off the bench. 

DHam sucks at SS defense. He started 1 game at 2B in 2023. In the minors he started 89 out of 328 games at 2B. 

I'm not so sure it was an "improvement" on D, as much as it was the switch from SS to 2B.

He should not start vs LHPs, so his role should be limited to a strong side platoon with either Romy or Grissom.

While a .729 OPS vs RHPs is nothing great, it blows away Grissom & Romy's splits. Grissom's "break out" 2022 season saw him hit .728 vs RHPs. Sure, he has much better minor league numbers than DHam and Romy, but making teh choice based on that seems problematic, to me.

Oh, and by the way: minor league splits vs RHPs:

.786 DHam in '23 AAA and .738 in '22 AA

While these are much worse than Grissom's, they do show his 2024 MLB splits may not be a fluke.

I also think his speed should not be undervalued.

 

[notin]

9 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

DHam sucks at SS defense. He started 1 game at 2B in 2023. In the minors he started 89 out of 328 games at 2B. 

I'm not so sure it was an "improvement" on D, as much as it was the switch from SS to 2B.

He should not start vs LHPs, so his role should be limited to a strong side platoon with either Romy or Grissom.

While a .729 OPS vs RHPs is nothing great, it blows away Grissom & Romy's splits. Grissom's "break out" 2022 season saw him hit .728 vs RHPs. Sure, he has much better minor league numbers than DHam and Romy, but making teh choice based on that seems problematic, to me.

Oh, and by the way: minor league splits vs RHPs:

.786 DHam in '23 AAA and .738 in '22 AA

While these are much worse than Grissom's, they do show his 2024 MLB splits may not be a fluke.

I also think his speed should not be undervalued.

 

Hamilton is a lock for the 26 man roster if healthy.  He’s a lousy SS but he’s a good 2b and a great pinch runner, especially useful in the ghost runner era.

Gonzalez isn’t a lock for anything…

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Who’s to say that either DHam, or Romy even make the 26 out of ST let alone be the 2B platoon? I think you over value both of these guys. The ONLY reason both got playing time last year was because of injuries.

We don't know. I'm just giving my opinion of who has the inside track.

Nobody has the job won, and nobody has a split job secured.

No, they did not get a chance only because of injury. Story let DHam, Rafaela and others play games at SS, but the 2B job was up for grabs. Grissom was supposed to win the job, and yes an injury gave EValdez the look to start the year, but EValdez lost the job, because he sucked on D and was not good on O. When Grissom was healthy, he failed to win the job back, because DHam and Romy were doing fine at 2B. Reyes was on the opening day roster and lost his job, because eh sucked- not because of injury.

DHam actually lost the SS job and was demoted. He was later promoted and won the 2B platoon, because he was playing better than healthy EValdez, Grissom, Romy and Westbrook. Rafaela was doing better on D than DHam & others at SS.

DHam got over 300 PAs in 2024. He did well vs RHPs and sucked vs LHPs. he played plus D, when nobody else did at 2B. He stole 33 bases, which projects to over 65 in 650 PAs.

To me, he has not won the job, but he has the inside track to be the platoon. Again, I'm not saying anybody has won a slot on the 26- out of DHam, Roomy & Grissom. Campbell throws a wrench into the whole roster chocies, too. I never said DHam has won the job.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Hamilton is a lock for the 26 man roster if healthy.  He’s a lousy SS but he’s a good 2b and a great pinch runner, especially useful in the ghost runner era.

Gonzalez isn’t a lock for anything…

I don't think any one of DHam, Grissom or Romy have a lock on a roster slot, mainly because of Campbell, and to a much lesser extent, Mayer.

I do think DHam's 2B D and speed give him the upper hand over Grissom and Romy, but there is also the whole RHB issue. Romy was one of our best batters vs LHPs, so maybe that becomes a factor.

Grissom probably has more talent than any of the 3, and if he looks great in ST'ing, or even just significantly better than the other two, I could see him winning a slot on the 26 over the others. His 2B D has to take a leap forward to convince me he deserves the slot, but that's just me.

Another wild card is our shortage of a good RHB OF'er, and if we add a Grichuk or Laureano, we will just  carry 2 from Campbell, DHam, Romy and Grissom- not 3.

Personally, I'd go with Campbell, as of now, but if he looks shaky in ST'ing that could change. I'd give the inside edge to DHam over Grissom & Romy, but that could change, too. Romy can play SS and 1B better than DHam & Grissom. Grissom probably has the most upside potential or the 3.

[Bellhorn04]

Grissom's profile is eerily reminiscent of Yoshida's.  He has a good eye and makes a lot of contact.  But he doesn't have a high exit velocity and he doesn't hit many home runs.  And his defense isn't that great. 

[jdc69]

17 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Solid post, again. 

I don't think Yoshida is tradeable, and throwing in a good player to dump him is a hard thing to do.

I don't think we'd call up Mayer or any of the big 3 to be a sub.

We've all lost confidence in our FO. Their lack of actions, wrong actions are bad enough, but the lies and deceptions just drive it into our hearts.

Casas may be the more tradeable player to get something back for. 

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, jdc69 said:

Casas may be the more tradeable player to get something back for. 

The 1B trade and FA market seems to have cratered. I think it best we keep him.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The vast majority of our players have not reached age 29, yet. Only Yoshida, Story and Ref are past 29, and only ref is past age 32. There is no guarantee our younger players improve, as a whole, but I do not see why we should expect regression, as STEAMER and other sites seem to be suggesting.

Jarren Duran and Rafael Devers are older than Seattle's Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Victor Robles, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo but FanGraphs projects regression of 5.4 to 4.8 WAR for Raleigh, 3.1 to 2.3 WAR for Robles, 4.2 to 3,.5 WAR for Kirby, 4.1 to 3.5 WAR for Gilbert, 2.8 to 2.1 WAR for Miller and 2.3 to 1.8 WAR for Bryan Woo.

[moonslav59]

This is all mere speculation, and we could easily decline in some areas from 2024 (like SS and C OPS,) but to me, here are some slots we could see improvement:

1B .734 OPS in 2024> Casas has an .830 career OPS and just turned 25.

2B .533 OPS in 2024> DHam and Romy splits from 2024 look promising.

DH .742 OPS in 2024> Yoshida hi .765 in '24, and if Ref platoons, we could see an .800+ OPS at DH.

2B & SS Defense: We'd need a healthy season from Story and most of the innings at 2B to be from Campbell, DHam and Romy. (EValdez & Reyes are gone.)

Rotation: ERA as SP'er in 2024 (listed in order of most IP)

4.36 Crawford (4.04 in '23 as SP & RP)

3.12 Houck

4.49 Bello (4.24 in 2023)

4.19 Pivetta (FA) > Replaced by Crochet (3.58 ERA in '24)

3.49 Criswell> Replaced by Buehler (3.27 career)

2.42 Wink> Replaced by Giolito (4.43 career)

1.74 Fitts, 1.96 Whitlock, 4.09 Paxton, 1.80 Priester