A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Of course, but as a group, I think it fair to expect a team with 12 out of 13 batters in pre-prime, peak prime or the end of prime, and the one guy outside of prime as a short-sided platoon guy, to do better than when they were younger. Only Duran had a career year. I don't count Abreu, because it was his first full year.

Some may regress, but more should progress. Can you agree with that principle?

What I think is that the projections bake in all of this and more, and the 2025 projections are not that great for our position players, so we're trying to find a way around the projections.  "That can't be right!" stuff.

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What I think is that the projections bake in all of this and more, and the 2025 projections are not that great for our position players, so we're trying to find a way around the projections.  "That can't be right!" stuff.

I'm not "trying to find away around" data. Steamers has us below TOR. I've never valued them much at all, even when they had us doing better.

I think our batters will improve more than regress in 2025. We have to make up for the loss of O'neill, but also EVladez, McGuire, Jansen, Reyes, DSmith, Cooper & Dalbec, who total more PAs than O'Neill.

I look at who TOR added and their ages of key players, like Springer 35, Gausman & Bassitt 34. Why should we expect they improve?

TOR did get better, and I admit I am no expert on players from other teams, so maybe I am undervaluing their improvement, but they finished in last place in 2024, and I think we got a lot better, despite losing our best batter vs LHPs.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

TOR did get better

moon is a TOR superfan, confirmed. 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/29/2025 at 9:20 AM, moonslav59 said:

He has been replaced- just internally.

Most likely Rafaela's 285 PAs in the IF will move to the OF (CF.)

They may let Abreu and or Ref bat more against off-handed pitchers to make up part of the other 200 "replaceable" PAs. Otherwise, they will come from Romy, Anthony or Campbell.

Then, there is the Grichuk type option.

Sox are holding out until Grichuk will accept a 1 yr-1 million deal

[Bellhorn04]

24 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm not "trying to find away around" data. Steamers has us below TOR. I've never valued them much at all, even when they had us doing better.

I think our batters will improve more than regress in 2025. We have to make up for the loss of O'neill, but also EVladez, McGuire, Jansen, Reyes, DSmith, Cooper & Dalbec, who total more PAs than O'Neill.

I look at who TOR added and their ages of key players, like Springer 35, Gausman & Bassitt 34. Why should we expect they improve?

TOR did get better, and I admit I am no expert on players from other teams, so maybe I am undervaluing their improvement, but they finished in last place in 2024, and I think we got a lot better, despite losing our best batter vs LHPs.

I think you're operating on hunches and a natural bias toward optimism about your own team.  Which I understand, we all do it.

The thing about projections is, assuming they're done by a reputable source, they're truly unbiased.  They're not "reliable" because no predictions about baseball are, but they'll be more accurate than those of biased fans.

As I've said before, the team win projections for the Sox the last 3 years were virtually all in the 80-85 range, and they turned out to be close to bang on each time.

 

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Let me try rephrasing my point. 

You quote me and pass off my examples as me making definitive statements. I told you that was not the case, and If I led anyone to believe so I apologize.  

I don't know exactly what the Sox budget is.  I don't know what the exact opportunity cost of signing O'Neill for $21 million, what I do know is there is one.  So, my examples could be amorphous, this is why I never saw your comment for the "AHH HAA GOTCHYA" moment that maybe you thought it was. 

If we go by the last several years, one could infer we are at or close to the budget.  If you wanted to put a gun to my head I'd say it's about $225.  And let me point out once again that this is conjecture but I believe that budget is amorphous and not every player is the same.  They'd probably be more willing to break that budget for Soto than Bregman. 

You're right, I don't know that Buehler was only signed because O'Neill wasn't offered a Q.O. But I do know the roster would look different.  We also have to factor in the offseason is not over, we do not know what extensions are coming that play into 2025's budget that also might not of been possible if they're operating under a budget and they had an extra $21 million on the payroll. 

RHB is a need, and I get people want to replace those home runs.  I do too, I also wanted pitching, pitching, and more pitching, a second baseman, a catcher, and extensions for the young kids.  If we were the LA Dodgers I'd expect them to just cough up $21 million or have gone out and signed someone else, but they're not LA.  There's an opportunity cost, if you want to tell me I don't definitely know what that is? sure, you got me there, but that wasn't the point I was trying to make and never was.  Perhaps I should been more clear of my speculations. 

It's all good. I wasn't trying to 'gotcha' you, I just couldn't make sense out of what were parallel opinions to me. Miscommunication - it happens. No biggie. 

 

Pitching was the biggest need for me this off season and I'm very happy with the moves made so far. But our lineup looks average at best when it comes to power, and that's probably overshooting it. It's shabby when it comes to defense bar the outfield, and very lop sided in handedness with no sign of that changing with the prospects. 

They're clearly not going to go past the first tax line if at all possible, and I get Rome wasn't built in a day, but seesh, there's a lot of holes/issues on this team, still. 

[Hitch]

3 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Wrecking my brain trying to think of actual FO surprises in the post-Mookie Error: Story, when we already had a shortstop? Yoshida, when nobody else in the world thought he was worth $90 million? In retrospect, it has to be Devers' extension -- though at the time most fans thought locking up your best young player is what rich and respectable franchises are supposed to do.

Maybe the Crochet trade; not because the Red Sox were one of the few MLB clubs with the prospect capital to land him, but because they finally used their resources to seal the deal. What other surprises did Boston acquire this offseason? Certainly not more starting pitchers with elbow issues, old relievers, or back-up catchers.

It's not even a surprise some of us believed Sam Kennedy when he said the Sox would spend to fortify the roster for a run at a division title... we're not Mets fans, so don't tell us, "You Gotta Believe!" Red Sox CBOs didn't just go to Yale for degrees in Classics and Micro-Biology. They minored in Sports Psychology and the lifelong desperation of Red Sox Nation... "We WANNA Believe!"

 

 

 

Yeah, I'm certainly not sitting here expecting anything to happen. And in a way, I get it, they've painted themselves into a corner. I don't want Bregman for the cost and years it'll take, and 100% not for 2nd. There's not many other great fits out there. Even in a trade for Arenado, there's issues that come with it, issues we've clearly not been able to solve by manufacturing a worthwhile trade for Casas. There's few great fits right now. The fits have been and gone and they watched them sail by because market value is terrifying to them.

[Hitch]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

EVEN IF IT MEANS PAYING CBT WE'RE AIMING AT 90-95 WINS - Sam Kennedy 

The disappointing thing, the really disappointing thing, is that even after everything, I believed him. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

4 minutes ago, Hitch said:

The disappointing thing, the really disappointing thing, is that even after everything, I believed him. 

No, you wanted to believe him.

[mvp 78]

People on here figured they'd be over the 2nd CBT!

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

People on here figured they'd be over the 2nd CBT!

Hell, for a few days we had Soto and Fried on the 2025 team, just for starters! 🙃

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hell, for a few days we had Soto and Fried on the 2025 team, just for starters! 🙃

Looking forward to Brock adding a Jays site for us once they sign Bregman so that we can migrate there. 

Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently appeared on Area 45 with Bijani and Creighton and suggested the Blue Jays might have a six-year offer out to Bregman.

[notin]

45 minutes ago, Hitch said:

It's all good. I wasn't trying to 'gotcha' you, I just couldn't make sense out of what were parallel opinions to me. Miscommunication - it happens. No biggie. 

 

Pitching was the biggest need for me this off season and I'm very happy with the moves made so far. But our lineup looks average at best when it comes to power, and that's probably overshooting it. It's shabby when it comes to defense bar the outfield, and very lop sided in handedness with no sign of that changing with the prospects. 

They're clearly not going to go past the first tax line if at all possible, and I get Rome wasn't built in a day, but seesh, there's a lot of holes/issues on this team, still. 

And after that first day, Rome’s Steamer projections had them a distant fourth, with a massive gap between them and the Ottomans…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

56 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Looking forward to Brock adding a Jays site for us once they sign Bregman so that we can migrate there. 

Bob Nightengale of USA Today recently appeared on Area 45 with Bijani and Creighton and suggested the Blue Jays might have a six-year offer out to Bregman.

The Jays will be sorry if they spend what it costs to be a better ballclub...

(... isn't that what hapless Sox fans like me are programmed to say now?)

I also think -- wait, I can't think, all that's on my mind is buying tickets to America's Most Beloved Museum of a Ballpark... and, and a t-shirt... and a big drink in a souvenir plastic cup with a big B on it. My cells are insulated with macro-plastics!

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The Jays will be sorry if they spend what it costs to be a better ballclub...

The Jays have to SPEND because nobody wants to move to Canada to play baseball. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

And after that first day, Rome’s Steamer projections had them a distant fourth, with a massive gap between them and the Ottomans…

If you like that kind of humor, you should have a field day with Roman and Kristian! 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The Jays have to SPEND because nobody wants to move to Canada to play baseball. 

As of today, if the Jays signed Juan Soto for the same as the Mets did, they would owe him more than 1.1 billion Canadian dollars. 🤣

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

As of today, if the Jays signed Juan Soto for the same as the Mets did, they would owe him more than 1.1 billion Canadian dollars. 🤣

That's a lot of Kraft Dinner! 

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think you're operating on hunches and a natural bias toward optimism about your own team.  Which I understand, we all do it.

The thing about projections is, assuming they're done by a reputable source, they're truly unbiased.  They're not "reliable" because no predictions about baseball are, but they'll be more accurate than those of biased fans.

As I've said before, the team win projections for the Sox the last 3 years were virtually all in the 80-85 range, and they turned out to be close to bang on each time.

 

I think STEAMERS tends to be conservative on projections, but we all expect they are consistently the same with every player and team. I don't disagree. They are not changing the formula when projecting Sox players, of example.

There are other player projections, like Duran's, where other fans are scratching their heads. I get it. Certainly, TOR could finish above us, and we have sown a knack for finishing in last place, even when we were not projected to do so.

I've always been big on pitching (especially SP'ers and the closer) and defense (especially up the middle and RF D.) Maybe, I'm overly biased, but I thought our rotation sucked, last winter, and did not give us much of a chance, because of that.

I've always felt age matters. I'm not changing my goalposts. We have a young team, and our older players do not hold key positions, except our 9th inning pitchers.

As the season went on, last year, I thought we were were better than expected, thanks in large part to our younger players doing well and Houck, Crawford, Bello and Slaten holding their own. I know we ended, poorly, and that matters a lot to some people more than to me. I felt like our team was better than a .500 team, but ended up at .500.

Who knows? Maybe we have the same amount or more key injuries. Maybe some young players take a step back- more than one should expect. Maybe 2024 was Duran, Abreus, Rafaela, DHam. Wong, Houck, Crawford, Slaten and others' career years. I get that, but by and large, I expect pre-prime players to improve, overall. I expect prime players to have good years more than not. I don't think that's being a homer. I realize all of this is part of these site's projection models, but they are often wrong.

Someone mentioned they have Duran going minus on D. To me, that is absurd and a clear mistake.

I'm not projecting Story & Casas to play 145+ games, but if just one does, that should be a huge boost.

I'm not thrilled with this team. I have said we are not a top contender. We could have and should have done more, but I also look around at what other teams have done in the AL, and nothing really jumps out as being way better than what we did, and I actually think we blew Houston's winter away. BAL has a lot of kids on the rise, but they lost some talent. The Yanks got some nice talent but lost Soto and others. SEA seems to be stagnant. KCR, CLE and DET? Ummm...

I think we look to be a very slight favorite to squeak into the playoffs or just miss- maybe an 85-90 win team, as of now. I haven't looked real closely at what other teams have done, but I think we got significant; better than a team that should have won 82-85 games, last year. (IMO)

[Larry Cook]

Jen mcaffrey of the athletic thinking yoshida will not be with Boston to start the season. Yoshida will only start throwing in march 

she thinks he is behind on his rehab 

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

Jen mcaffrey of the athletic thinking yoshida will not be with Boston to start the season. Yoshida will only start throwing in march 

she thinks he is behind on his rehab 

ESPN still says Mar 1st. CBS says "probable" for opening day.

[vegasbob]

17 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Jen mcaffrey of the athletic thinking yoshida will not be with Boston to start the season. Yoshida will only start throwing in march 

she thinks he is behind on his rehab 

When is the last time Yoshida had to throw a ball ?     I doubt Breslow is thinking of Masataka as a #7 pitcher.

Yoshida should take as much time as needed to get his shoulder into hitting mode, and earn out at least 1 of his remaining years.

[moonslav59]

44 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

When is the last time Yoshida had to throw a ball ?     I doubt Breslow is thinking of Masataka as a #7 pitcher.

Yoshida should take as much time as needed to get his shoulder into hitting mode, and earn out at least 1 of his remaining years.

They did talk about Yoshida playing some OF, but that does not have to be opening day or even in April.

I'm thinking he'll be the opening day DH, unless we face a lefty, and we decide to start Ref at DH, not the OF.

The reports I see say Yoshi should be ready by the first day of ST'ing or by opening day.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/31/2025 at 8:38 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Hell, for a few days we had Soto and Fried on the 2025 team, just for starters! 🙃

sadly i never figured us to be over even the first CBT line

[Randy Red Sox]

37 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They did talk about Yoshida playing some OF, but that does not have to be opening day or even in April.

I'm thinking he'll be the opening day DH, unless we face a lefty, and we decide to start Ref at DH, not the OF.

The reports I see say Yoshi should be ready by the first day of ST'ing or by opening day.

a Ref/Yoshida DH combo will strike fear into the rest of MLB

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/31/2025 at 10:53 AM, moonslav59 said:

I think STEAMERS tends to be conservative on projections, but we all expect they are consistently the same with every player and team. I don't disagree. They are not changing the formula when projecting Sox players, of example.

There are other player projections, like Duran's, where other fans are scratching their heads. I get it. Certainly, TOR could finish above us, and we have sown a knack for finishing in last place, even when we were not projected to do so.

I've always been big on pitching (especially SP'ers and the closer) and defense (especially up the middle and RF D.) Maybe, I'm overly biased, but I thought our rotation sucked, last winter, and did not give us much of a chance, because of that.

I've always felt age matters. I'm not changing my goalposts. We have a young team, and our older players do not hold key positions, except our 9th inning pitchers.

As the season went on, last year, I thought we were were better than expected, thanks in large part to our younger players doing well and Houck, Crawford, Bello and Slaten holding their own. I know we ended, poorly, and that matters a lot to some people more than to me. I felt like our team was better than a .500 team, but ended up at .500.

Who knows? Maybe we have the same amount or more key injuries. Maybe some young players take a step back- more than one should expect. Maybe 2024 was Duran, Abreus, Rafaela, DHam. Wong, Houck, Crawford, Slaten and others' career years. I get that, but by and large, I expect pre-prime players to improve, overall. I expect prime players to have good years more than not. I don't think that's being a homer. I realize all of this is part of these site's projection models, but they are often wrong.

Someone mentioned they have Duran going minus on D. To me, that is absurd and a clear mistake.

I'm not projecting Story & Casas to play 145+ games, but if just one does, that should be a huge boost.

I'm not thrilled with this team. I have said we are not a top contender. We could have and should have done more, but I also look around at what other teams have done in the AL, and nothing really jumps out as being way better than what we did, and I actually think we blew Houston's winter away. BAL has a lot of kids on the rise, but they lost some talent. The Yanks got some nice talent but lost Soto and others. SEA seems to be stagnant. KCR, CLE and DET? Ummm...

I think we look to be a very slight favorite to squeak into the playoffs or just miss- maybe an 85-90 win team, as of now. I haven't looked real closely at what other teams have done, but I think we got significant; better than a team that should have won 82-85 games, last year. (IMO)

I think we can contend for a W/C too but the Jays have added the past few days and you can never count out TB.  I see us finishing 3rd with 83-87 wins - enough to keep RSN from revolting which is all JH cares about.

[notin]

On 1/31/2025 at 12:37 PM, Bellhorn04 said:

As of today, if the Jays signed Juan Soto for the same as the Mets did, they would owe him more than 1.1 billion Canadian dollars. 🤣

That buys a lot of Molson…

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

sadly i never figured us to be over even the first CBT line

I told myself to expect no more spending, but then that damn Soto thing got to me.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

a Ref/Yoshida DH combo will strike fear into the rest of MLB

Ref should. They guy has been a lefty killer for 3 years in a row. Only 11 batters in all of MLB have a higher OPS vs LHPs and more PAs than Ref since 2022. He's at .910.

Yoshida has an .810 OPS vs RHPs, career- not great but pretty good.

If Ref hits .910 and Yoshida .810, our DH might hit .845-.850. That would have placed them 5th in 2024 DH OPS. We placed 13th, last year at .742.

[oldtimer]

5 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

They did talk about Yoshida playing some OF, but that does not have to be opening day or even in April.

I'm thinking he'll be the opening day DH, unless we face a lefty, and we decide to start Ref at DH, not the OF.

The reports I see say Yoshi should be ready by the first day of ST'ing or by opening day.

My view throughout the off seeason is that the Sox nees to improve on defense and to do more to balance their lineup with right hand bats, preferably with some power. In my view Yoshida is not a good fit for Boston in either category (defense, balance). Is it still too late to trade for a right handed outfielder? Trade Yoshida and if necessary Abreau to make it happen.

A trade for another quality right handed hitting catcher doesn't seem to be in the offing so an outfielder makes sense.

Rafaela's hitting reamains suspect so I don't expect he will begin the year as more than a utility player.  I don't see him as filling the need.

Realistically Devers  and Casas will remain at the corners and we would like to see the Sox take advantage of our high performance prospects. Anthony  in the outfield and Campbell at 2nd base while avoiding a major commitment to an older player who would wind up out of his best position. I woulld roll the dice in the direction of our prospects.

Can Mayer also be brought up and given reps at SS against some RH pitching? That's a tougher call but I hate to see him languish in the minors if he has true ML capability.

Over the years I have lost confidence that Sox management has a plan to make the team truly competitive.