A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

The thing that the poison ivy-leaguers still haven't addressed: if the defense is Bottom 5, the pitching most likely can't be Top 5.

We need health for the pitching to be top 5, but on paper, I think it is. (remember, top 5 out of 15 AL teams, not 30 MLB teams.)

BOS: 4.8 Crochet, 2.8 Houck, 2.5 Bello, 1.8 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Giolito, 0.8 Chapman, 0.6 Hendriks, 0.5 Whitlock, Slaten & Wilson

Look at the pitching by other AL teams. (projected 0.5+ pitchers listed, only)

NYY: 3.2 Fried, 3.1 Cole, 2.8 Rodon, 1.8 Gill & Schmidt, 0.8 Stroman, 0.7 Cruz & D Williams, 0.5 Beeter, Leiter & Hamilton

SEA: 3.5 Gilbert, 3.3 Kirby, 2.8 Castillo, 1.9 Miller, 1.8 Woo, 0.8 Munoz, 0.6 Santos, 0.5 Brash

DET: 5.0 Skubal, 2.2 Olsen, 2.0 Cobb, 1.6 Mize, 0.6 G-Long & B Hunter, 0.5 Maeda, Vest & k Montero

KCR: 3.6 Ragans, 2.8 Lugo, 2.3 wacha, 1.4 Marsh, Bubic & Wright, 0.7 Erceg & Haivey

MIN: 3.6 Lopez, 3.4 Ryan, 2.6 Ober, 1.4 Paddock & Festa, 1.1 Duran, 1.0 W-Richards & Mathhews, 0.9 Jax, 0.7 Stewarts, 0.6 Sands, 0.5 Varland

HOU: 3.7 Valdez, 3.2 H Brown, 1.7 Blanco, 1.2 L Garcia & Arrighetti, o.9 Hader & McCullers, 0.8 Abreu, 0.7 Wesneski, 0.6 Pressley

CLE: 2.5 Bibee, 1.6 G Williams, 1.5 Beiber, 0.9 Clase & C Smith, 0.8 Cantillo, ).7 Lively, 0.6 L Ortiz

TBR: 3.2 McClanahan, 2.4 Bradley, 2.2 Pepiot, 2.0 Rasmussen, 1.5 Baz, 1.2 Litell, 0.6 Fairbanks

BAL: 2.8 Eflin, 2.7 G Rod, 1.3 Kremer, 1.1 Bautista & Povich, 0.7 Suarez & Akin, 0.5 T Rogers & Cano

LAA: 3.1 Kikuchi, 2.1 Soriano, 1.7 Detmers, 1.1 Anderson, 0.9 K Hendricks, 0.7 Kochanowicz, 0.6 Joyce

OAK: 2.2 Springs, 2.0 Severino, 1.5 Miller, 1.4 Sears, 1.0 Spence, 0.6 Ginn & Bido, 1.5 Basso

CWS: 1.3 Martin, 1.0 Burke & Cannon, 0.9 Shults & Thorpe

I find it hard to project 5 teams with better pitching staffs than ours, on paper. Many have big or bigger question marks than we have with Gio, Buehler, Hendriks & Whitlock.

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

In order for Wilson to be squeezed out, they'd need to find a LHP that can clearly beat him out (aside from Chapman). SoxProspects projects him as starting on the 60 man with Sandoval. After that, they'd use his option to work his way back in AAA rather than MLB IMO. Penrod? Doubtful. Bernardino has one more year so he may start the year in AAA as well, but he's the only guy that might beat out Wilson at some point.

We have some RHPs who do better or the same vs LHBs. I just don't think Wilson is all that good, anymore.

We may add another RP'er by oprning day, too.

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We need health for the pitching to be top 5, but on paper, I think it is. (remember, top 5 out of 15 AL teams, not 30 MLB teams.)

BOS: 4.8 Crochet, 2.8 Houck, 2.5 Bello, 1.8 Crawford, 1.4 Buehler, 1.2 Giolito, 0.8 Chapman, 0.6 Hendriks, 0.5 Whitlock, Slaten & Wilson

Look at the pitching by other AL teams. (projected 0.5+ pitchers listed, only)

NYY: 3.2 Fried, 3.1 Cole, 2.8 Rodon, 1.8 Gill & Schmidt, 0.8 Stroman, 0.7 Cruz & D Williams, 0.5 Beeter, Leiter & Hamilton

SEA: 3.5 Gilbert, 3.3 Kirby, 2.8 Castillo, 1.9 Miller, 1.8 Woo, 0.8 Munoz, 0.6 Santos, 0.5 Brash

DET: 5.0 Skubal, 2.2 Olsen, 2.0 Cobb, 1.6 Mize, 0.6 G-Long & B Hunter, 0.5 Maeda, Vest & k Montero

KCR: 3.6 Ragans, 2.8 Lugo, 2.3 wacha, 1.4 Marsh, Bubic & Wright, 0.7 Erceg & Haivey

MIN: 3.6 Lopez, 3.4 Ryan, 2.6 Ober, 1.4 Paddock & Festa, 1.1 Duran, 1.0 W-Richards & Mathhews, 0.9 Jax, 0.7 Stewarts, 0.6 Sands, 0.5 Varland

HOU: 3.7 Valdez, 3.2 H Brown, 1.7 Blanco, 1.2 L Garcia & Arrighetti, o.9 Hader & McCullers, 0.8 Abreu, 0.7 Wesneski, 0.6 Pressley

CLE: 2.5 Bibee, 1.6 G Williams, 1.5 Beiber, 0.9 Clase & C Smith, 0.8 Cantillo, ).7 Lively, 0.6 L Ortiz

TBR: 3.2 McClanahan, 2.4 Bradley, 2.2 Pepiot, 2.0 Rasmussen, 1.5 Baz, 1.2 Litell, 0.6 Fairbanks

BAL: 2.8 Eflin, 2.7 G Rod, 1.3 Kremer, 1.1 Bautista & Povich, 0.7 Suarez & Akin, 0.5 T Rogers & Cano

LAA: 3.1 Kikuchi, 2.1 Soriano, 1.7 Detmers, 1.1 Anderson, 0.9 K Hendricks, 0.7 Kochanowicz, 0.6 Joyce

OAK: 2.2 Springs, 2.0 Severino, 1.5 Miller, 1.4 Sears, 1.0 Spence, 0.6 Ginn & Bido, 1.5 Basso

CWS: 1.3 Martin, 1.0 Burke & Cannon, 0.9 Shults & Thorpe

I find it hard to project 5 teams with better pitching staffs than ours, on paper. Many have big or bigger question marks than we have with Gio, Buehler, Hendriks & Whitlock.

Sure, the AL is relatively pathetic. But we're still mediocre as a team overall, and its almost like we're accepting that because the rest of the AL is mediocre , so maybe we can play meaningful baseball in Aug/Sept.

Put us in the NL and I dont think we make the playoffs.  But we may in the AL because who are we really competing against aside from the Yankees? The Royals again?

[Bellhorn04]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Because everyone in MLB wins 40-60% of their games, so .500 predictions mean more with tighter ranges of +/-.  You’re getting handed a 20% range to begin with, and a prediction of .500 with that range cuts into 20% of it.

 

Also you didn’t say who…

Sure, you want me to waste my time looking up pre-season win projections for the last 3 years.  I don't have to.  I'm fully confident that the consensus projections for the Sox the last 3 years were somewhere in the 80-85 win range.  I'm here all the time and I know we talked about the projections.

Furthermore, at the end of each of the last 3 seasons hardly anyone said the Sox underachieved significantly and hardly anyone called for Cora's head.  He got an extension in fact.

If you insist on a look-up, I'll do it if I get time.    

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, the AL is relatively pathetic. But we're still mediocre as a team overall, and its almost like we're accepting that because the rest of the AL is mediocre , so maybe we can play meaningful baseball in Aug/Sept.

Put us in the NL and I dont think we make the playoffs.  But we may in the AL because who are we really competing against aside from the Yankees? The Royals again?

Yes, this seems to be where things are.  The NL is getting stronger and the AL is getting weaker.  

How'd that happen?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We need health for the pitching to be top 5, but on paper, I think it is. (remember, top 5 out of 15 AL teams, not 30 MLB teams.)

I find it hard to project 5 teams with better pitching staffs than ours, on paper. Many have big or bigger question marks than we have with Gio, Buehler, Hendriks & Whitlock.

It's not a question of talent or even durability -- because all rotations will feature many IL visits.

It's all comes down to depth; can Criswell-Fitts-Priester-Dobbins-Sandlin-some other pick-up keep the Sox in the hunt?

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Sure, you want me to waste my time looking up pre-season win projections for the last 3 years.  I don't have to.  I'm fully confident that the consensus projections for the Sox the last 3 years were somewhere in the 80-85 win range.  I'm here all the time and I know we talked about the projections.

Furthermore, at the end of each of the last 3 seasons hardly anyone said the Sox underachieved significantly and hardly anyone called for Cora's head.  He got an extension in fact.

If you insist on a look-up, I'll do it if I get time.    

Steamer

'24: 79-83

'23: 81-81

'22: 86-76

[mvp 78]

They had the same '22 preseason odds as the Phillies who ended up in the WS. 

'21: 85-77 (not a banner year for Steamer)

 

[mvp 78]

Both PECOTA and Steamer projected the Cardinals to go from worst to first in 2024 and their season last year is now causing a sell off. 

[mvp 78]

PECOTA and Steamer also had the 4th place Twins winning their division instead last year. Also really undervalued the Royals (who added a lot last offseason), Mets, Padres and Brewers (who won the division the previous season). 🫠

They even missed the White Sox win total by 25 games!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, drewski6 said:

Sure, the AL is relatively pathetic. But we're still mediocre as a team overall, and its almost like we're accepting that because the rest of the AL is mediocre , so maybe we can play meaningful baseball in Aug/Sept.

Put us in the NL and I dont think we make the playoffs.  But we may in the AL because who are we really competing against aside from the Yankees? The Royals again?

I agree. I was just speaking about the #2 ranking in the AL on pitching. I think we are top 5 in the AL, but maybe 10th to 12th overall.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

It's not a question of talent or even durability -- because all rotations will feature many IL visits.

It's all comes down to depth; can Criswell-Priester-Dobbins-Sandlin-some other pick-up keep the Sox in the hunt?

Crawford is our #6, then Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and maybe Fulmer. To me, our rotation depth is better than most teams and maybe top 10. (Wink & Whitlock could be included in "depth," too.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crawford is our #6, then Criswell, Priester, Fitts, Dobbins and maybe Fulmer. To me, our rotation depth is better than most teams and maybe top 10. (Wink & Whitlock could be included in "depth," too.)

I assume a six-man and include Crawford.

It's the next four or six starters -- on all clubs -- that will determine how good their "staff" is and how far they'll go. 

Are Criswell-Fitts and Co. ready to take Boston to the playoffs?

Note: when LA signs Roki, they may have a 10-man rotation of good big leaguers.

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Steamer

'24: 79-83

'23: 81-81

'22: 86-76

ESPN

24 79

23 78

22 87

Everyone knows they're now the Maestros of Mediocrity.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I assume a six-man and include Crawford.

It's the next four or six starters -- on all clubs -- that will determine how good their "staff" is and how far they'll go. 

Are Criswell-Fitts and Co. ready to take Boston to the playoffs?

Note: when LA signs Roki, they may have a 10-man rotation of good big leaguers.

I'm comparing our #6-10 SP'ers to other teams, not to our 1-5.

I admit I don't know how good other teams' rotation depth is, but I'm thinking ours is better. In 2024, Houck and Criswell were "depth." That was not our weakness. It was our 1-5.

I'm not sure we go with a 6 man rotation, but even if we do, I'd still count Crawford as depth, since a SP'er going down would mean we go to a 5 man.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm comparing our #6-10 SP'ers to other teams, not to our 1-5.

I admit I don't know how good other teams' rotation depth is, but I'm thinking ours is better. In 2024, Houck and Criswell were "depth." That was not our weakness. It was our 1-5.

I'm not sure we go with a 6 man rotation, but even if we do, I'd still count Crawford as depth, since a SP'er going down would mean we go to a 5 man.

People here do realize that no pitcher started more Major League games on the mound in 2024 than Cutter Crawford?

He's going to be in the rotation, and I wouldn't want to bet that any of Crochet, Buehler or Giolito make more starts. 

Plus, Crawdad's short-arm delivery should keep his elbow safe from the arthroscopes... but maybe he'll pull a rhomboid.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 1/1/2025 at 6:43 PM, moonslav59 said:

Yes. He may be more likely as an early season addition. We may wait a few weeks for the kids, so they gain a year of control. For cheap JH, that matters.

you nailed it

[dgalehouse]

John Henry has done so much for Red Sox Nation. Now he is having problems and he needs our help. I am asking all of you TalkSox members and contributors to give $19.00 a month. That is really just pennies a day. Less than the cost of a beer and a hot dog at Fenway Park.  Doing this will help John Henry get back on his feet. And it will enable the Red Sox to compete with the wealthier franchises, as well as help with the much needed repairs to Mr. Henry's yacht. Please call or go online to donate today. We thank you. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

38 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

John Henry has done so much for Red Sox Nation. Now he is having problems and he needs our help. I am asking all of you TalkSox members and contributors to give $19.00 a month. That is really just pennies a day. Less than the cost of a beer and a hot dog at Fenway Park.  Doing this will help John Henry get back on his feet. And it will enable the Red Sox to compete with the wealthier franchises, as well as help with the much needed repairs to Mr. Henry's yacht. Please call or go online to donate today. We thank you. 

Hey, I just finished saving up $19 bucks for one of those big soft pretzels he sells at Fenway. But I still need another $5 bucks for a packet of mustard.

[moonslav59]

The Dodgers, who else? signed Hyeseong Kim to $12M/3. They DFA'd former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya (Sox interest?)

O's sign Charlie Morton to a Soxesque $15M/1 deal.

 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

People here do realize that no pitcher started more Major League games on the mound in 2024 than Cutter Crawford?

He's going to be in the rotation, and I wouldn't want to bet that any of Crochet, Buehler or Giolito make more starts. 

Plus, Crawdad's short-arm delivery should keep his elbow safe from the arthroscopes... but maybe he'll pull a rhomboid.

I can't see Bello or Gio sent to the pen. I doubt we go with a 6 man rotation, and if we do, it won't be for long.

While Crawford started all those games and killed his IP personal best, he had a better WAR in '23.

The bombs ruined his chance for a great season.

[billge]

So we spend days and weeks  analyzing WAR and all other kinds of statistics  as they apply to Ham and Romy and Grissom and other second level players, and attempting to assess their possible future contributions, while other [ adult ] franchises are out doing business and improving . This  conversation continues  as most here fail to acknowledge the Elephant staring them in the face.  Do we continue to buy tickets and subscribe to MLB cable services and invest our time as fans to an ownership which lies and spits in our faces ?

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, billge said:

So we spend days and weeks  analyzing WAR and all other kinds of statistics  as they apply to Ham and Romy and Grissom and other second level players, and attempting to assess their possible future contributions, while other [ adult ] franchises are out doing business and improving . This  conversation continues  as most here fail to acknowledge the Elephant staring them in the face.  Do we continue to buy tickets and subscribe to MLB cable services and invest our time as fans to an ownership which lies and spits in our faces ?

If you knew what most ownership groups are doing, you would not have much to spend on.

[moonslav59]

The O's DFA'd catcher Rene Pinto to make room for Morton.

I don't know much about him, or the catcher the Dodgers just DFA'd, but I wonder if Brez is kicking some used tires.

[notin]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The Dodgers, who else? signed Hyeseong Kim to $12M/3. They DFA'd former top catching prospect Diego Cartaya (Sox interest?)

O's sign Charlie Morton to a Soxesque $15M/1 deal.

 

Cartaya was a BA Top 100 prospect as recently as 2023.  He will be traded, not released.  Also his defensive play is questionable.

I could understand trading for him, as the Sox only have two.  Per BTV, Cartaya might cost Nazzan Zanatello…

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

Cartaya was a BA Top 100 prospect as recently as 2023.  He will be traded, not released.  Also his defensive play is questionable.

I could understand trading for him, as the Sox only have two.  Per BTV, Cartaya might cost Nazzan Zanatello…

That's a lot of N's and Z's to give up!

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's a lot of N's and Z's to give up!

Especially just for one C…

[harmony]

In his podcast, Justin Verlander's brother picks the Red Sox to win the American League East in 2025:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KkXM9FlNwnk

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, notin said:

 Per BTV, Cartaya might cost Nazzan Zanatello…

Way too costly for a guy who in a couple winters could be fighting for a depth position on numbered, entirely-speculative board posts concocted by typists who will misspell both his namez a zzilllion times a week.

[Bellhorn04]

Really dig the name Nazzan, I must say.  Nice palindrome!