A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[notin]

21 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Crochet had the big bad peripherals this year, that's why he's a hot commodity.

Also, unlike Miller and Woo, he’s being shopped around…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

I’d avoid Miller.  He looks like a product T-Mobile Park and he pitches in front of a solid defense and to the best pitch-framer in the American League.  His road ERA is nearly 2 full runs higher than his home ERA.

 

Miller + Fenway + Wong + the Sox infield = Kutter Crawford…

Crawford - Fenway, still = 21 home runs on the road (more than Houck or Bello anywhere)

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, notin said:

And what is the right price?  What if it’s Anthony or Campbell? 

Of course, that's a no. Mayer and Casas for Gilbert or Kirby, maybe.

[Hugh2]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

They'll almost certainly do SOMETHING. The question is, will it be enough to make the team relevant again. This year, I think not. Maybe next year.

If they miss out on Soto, I can see them having another lackluster offseason and deciding next year to ramp up the spending.  Vladdy Jr will be a FA and there's a good top of the pitching market too

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If they miss out on Soto, I can see them having another lackluster offseason and deciding next year to ramp up the spending.  Vladdy Jr will be a FA and there's a good top of the pitching market too

Would Burnes or Fried plus an Abreu plus trade for Crochet or Woo/Miller plus Teoscar, Scott and Higgy be exciting enough?

Burnes, Houck, Crochet, Bello, Giolito

Scott, Hendriks, Slaten, Whitlock, Crawford, Guerrero, Fulmer/Wink, Wilson/Bernardino

1. Duran LF

2. Devers 3B

3. Casas 1B

4. Teoscar RF

5. Anthony CF

6. Campbell 2B

7. Story SS

8. Yoshida/Ref DH

9. Wong/Higgy C

DHam-Grissom, Rafaela Utility

[moonslav59]

I live in the HOU area and am no Bregman fan. He plays hard and is good on D, but he looks to be in decline, and starts the season slowly. That being said, if we lose out on Soto, how about this as a plan B?

Sign Fried, Bregman, Scott and Higgy.

Trade Casas, Abreu  & Mayer for Gilbert & Felnin Celesten

____________________________

Gilbert, Fried, Houck, Bello & Giolito (Crawford)

Scott, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks, Crawford, Guerrero, Wink/Fulmer, Wilson/Bernardino

1. Duran LF/CF

2. Bregman 3B

3.  Anthony RF

4. Devers 1B

5. Story SS

6. Yoshida DH (Refsnyder)

7. Campbell 2B (DHam/Grissom)

8.  Higgy/Wong C

9. Rafaela CF/Refsnyder LF

Spend more and get Teoscar and replace Rafaela in the OF or sub Rafaela (plus maybe Fitts) for Abreu in the trade and play Abreu in RF and Anthony in CF.

[moonslav59]

What pitcher could we get for Casas, Rafaela, Mayer and Fiits?

How about Mayer, Rafaela, Yoshida for Castillo and Garver?

Sign Fried, Bregman or Adames plus Scott and Holmes.

_________________________

Fried, Castillo, Houck, Bello, Giolito (Crawford)

Scott, Holmes, Slaten, Whitlock, Hendriks,  Crawford, Guerrero, Winckowski

1. L Duran LF/CF

2. R Bregman 3B

3. L Casas DH/1B

4. L Devers 1B/DH

5. R Campbell 2B (L DHam/ R Grissom)

6. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder LF

7. L Anthony CF/RF

8. R Story SS

9. R Wong/ Garver C

 

[harmony]

The inclusion of Masataka Yoshida is a likely deal-breaker in any trade negotiations with the Seattle Mariners.

[moonslav59]

48 minutes ago, harmony said:

The inclusion of Masataka Yoshida is a likely deal-breaker in any trade negotiations with the Seattle Mariners.

Yes. We've all agreed it is  a likely deal-breaker in any deal, even a beefed up one.

Did you like this one?

 Casas, Abreu  & Mayer for Gilbert & Felnin Celesten

 

[Duran Is The Man]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. We've all agreed it is  a likely deal-breaker in any deal, even a beefed up one.

Did you like this one?

 Casas, Abreu  & Mayer for Gilbert & Felnin Celesten

 

he should. IMHO, that is an overpay by the RS.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he should. IMHO, that is an overpay by the RS.

I was testing harmony.

(I bet he says no.)

[harmony]

36 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes. We've all agreed it is  a likely deal-breaker in any deal, even a beefed up one.

Did you like this one?

 Casas, Abreu  & Mayer for Gilbert & Felnin Celesten

 

No.

The money saved on Logan Gilbert's projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million is not enough to find his replacement for three cost-controlled years (much less to address more pressing infield needs).

The proposal ignores Seattle's strengths and weaknesses. The Mariners already have Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Victor Robles and Luke Raley at OF/1B, leaving little room for Triston Casas and Wilyer Abreu.

Steamer projects Marcelo Mayer with a 2025 wRC+ of 88, suggesting that Mayer might not be MLB-ready.

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, harmony said:

No.

The money saved on Logan Gilbert's projected 2025 salary of $8.1 million is not enough to find his replacement for three cost-controlled years (much less to address more pressing infield needs).

You fill your 1B and RF needs and eventually your MI need... likely sooner than you think.

[moonslav59]

The Sox by Age (by March 31,  2025):

21: Perales

22: Jh Garcia, 

23: Wikelman

24: Abreu, Rafaela, Grissom, Guerrero, Priester

25: Casas, Bello, Fitts, Dobbins

26: Winckowski,  Valdez, Murphy

27: Duran, Slaten,  DHam, Sogard, Penrod

28: Houck, Crawford, Whitlock, Wong, Criswell, Romy, Shugart

29: Gasper

30: Giolito, Weissert, Kelly

31: Yoshida

32: Story, Booser

33: Bernardino

34: Refsnyder

36: Hendriks

37: Wilson

Not many important players will be over 32 in 2025.

____________________

Top Prospects:

17: Ju. Gonzales

18. Cason, Valera, D Reyes

19: Arias, Cespedes, Jo Garcia

20: Anthony, Bleis, Romero, Paez

21: Mayer, Montgomery, Perales, ERod

22: Campbell, Teel, Tolle, Monegro

23: Meidroth, Sandlin, Early

24: Mullins

 

[Hitch]

Multiple reports from trusted sources like Speier, have us signing a starter (and more) as well as Soto, if it comes off.

 

I very much hope we are trying to sign Fried before Soto is settled to show him just how serious we are about going for it. We need every advantage we can in trying to sign him.

[Larry Cook]

I only see two landing spots for yoshida that make sense. 
1.) to Arizona for Montgomery 

2.) to St. Louis for Arenado 

[moonslav59]

HAPPY

THANKSGIVING!

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I only see two landing spots for yoshida that make sense. 
1.) to Arizona for Montgomery 

2.) to St. Louis for Arenado 

I agree, and of course, more will be needed to offset the negative value Yoshida has, but those two are in negative territory, as well.

As much as BTV says Luis Castillo is negative, I'm not buying it. I do think SEA can sign someone like him for the same AAV, but they have no use for Yoshida, even if we take back Haniger and Garver, as well.

I'm not sure AZ or STL have "use," either.

AZ wants to shed salary, so I'm not sure taking Yoshida saves them what they want.

Arendado is blocking other players, and it's not so much about money for STL, but they would have to like getting out from the $74M/3 owed him (32>27>15). Yoshida is owed  $55.8M/3 ($18.6M x 3.)

The worst part for the Sox is the added $12M to the lux tax budget x 3 years.

The suggested deal that brings us Helsley with Arenado, looks too good to be true, and of course, it does not include Yoshida, but it does include $15M.

Arenado, Helsley, Graceffo & $15M for Cespedes and Fitts.  Maybe tweak it to Arenado, Helsley and no cash or Graceffo for Cespedes, Fitts, Yoshida and Teel. (We can sign Higgy.)

[FredLynn]

21 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

If they miss out on Soto, I can see them having another lackluster offseason and deciding next year to ramp up the spending.  Vladdy Jr will be a FA and there's a good top of the pitching market too

Ticket sales and attendance are already down year to year. Another crap team and I think they will plummet. Henry deserves to see a lot of empty seats at the park if his "full throttle" is set in reverse again.

[notin]

5 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

I only see two landing spots for yoshida that make sense. 
1.) to Arizona for Montgomery 

2.) to St. Louis for Arenado 

Do either of those make sense for the other team?  The Cards save money, but they have zero need for more LH bats or another DH.  The DBacks also have a crowded DH/OF situation.  
 

Both teams might have an opening at 1b, depending on whether or not you think Willson Contreras is really a solution there.  But not so sure either team has pitching they’d give up for Casas…

[notin]

22 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Crawford - Fenway, still = 21 home runs on the road (more than Houck or Bello anywhere)

Bryce Miller gave up 15 HRs out of 21 on the road. Unless any trade for him include T-Mobile Park, he might not be the upgrade folks are expecting.

 

And as a very wise baseball sage named Steve Stone once said “Don’t look at home runs; look at home runs with men on base.”  Only ten HRs off Crawford last year came with men on base.  Bryce Miller only gave up 21 HRs, but 9 came with men on base.

 

I wouldn’t turn down Miller, but I would not bid too heavily on him. And I certainly don’t give up Mayer for him.  Sure I compare Miller to Kutter Crawford, but I’m the rare poster on these boards that defends Crawford…

[Larry Cook]

45 minutes ago, notin said:

Do either of those make sense for the other team?  The Cards save money, but they have zero need for more LH bats or another DH.  The DBacks also have a crowded DH/OF situation.  
 

Both teams might have an opening at 1b, depending on whether or not you think Willson Contreras is really a solution there.  But not so sure either team has pitching they’d give up for Casas…

1.) ownership in Arizona wants out of the Montgomery deal. This is a good solution for them. 
2.) Arenado is owed 41mm in deferred money on top of his contract. I think this deal makes sense for St. Louis. 

[notin]

33 minutes ago, Larry Cook said:

1.) ownership in Arizona wants out of the Montgomery deal. This is a good solution for them. 
2.) Arenado is owed 41mm in deferred money on top of his contract. I think this deal makes sense for St. Louis. 

I think the DBacks can find an option that better fits their team for Montgomery than a DH with limited power and no defensive role who is signed for 3 more years.

I could see Arenado coming to Boston (how prophetic of me after all the rumors), but I think more likely it involves someone like Whitlock than Yoshida.

The only deal I saw as a guy was Yoshida to Seattle for Mitch Garver, but that would require the Sox paying a good amount of money, and is unlikely given Yoshida’s shoulder.  Garver’s deal is much shorter, but he was always a poor fit in Seattle.

In fact, as he is coming off shoulder surgery, I don’t see Yoshida getting dealt at all.  I see him starting the season on the Red Sox injured list

[moonslav59]

Monty ($22.5M/1) is owed less than Yoshida $55.5M/3.) AZ had 16 more wins than losses in 2024.

I don't see a fit, even if we pay enough to make the money even. What would it look like?

Yoshida + $8M a year x 3 and _______ for Monty?

Would the player(s) be Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Abreu and or a good, but not top 4 prospect?

[Duran Is The Man]

26 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Monty ($22.5M/1) is owed less than Yoshida $55.5M/3.) AZ had 16 more wins than losses in 2024.

I don't see a fit, even if we pay enough to make the money even. What would it look like?

Yoshida + $8M a year x 3 and _______ for Monty?

Would the player(s) be Crawford, Fitts, Priester, Abreu and or a good, but not top 4 prospect?

isn't that about what we owed on Price? so....trade Yoshida and Devers to the Dodgers for some scrubs?

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

isn't that about what we owed on Price? so....trade Yoshida and Devers to the Dodgers for some scrubs?

Maybe some team looking to rebuild and not caring about their budget might take Yoshida with Mayer and Abreu for someone good, but who is that team?

PITT is too cheap (Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu & Yoshida for Keller & Reynolds)

MINN? (Mayer or Teel, Abreu, Yoshida for Pablo Lopez & Jeffers?)

[Duran Is The Man]

19 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe some team looking to rebuild and not caring about their budget might take Yoshida with Mayer and Abreu for someone good, but who is that team?

PITT is too cheap (Mayer, Rafaela, Abreu & Yoshida for Keller & Reynolds)

MINN? (Mayer or Teel, Abreu, Yoshida for Pablo Lopez & Jeffers?)

i'd do the last one with Mayer.

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'd do the last one with Mayer.

While MIN is no big spender, they do seem to spend more than many teams.

Would you do the same trade and add Story for Correa in the mix? MIN would save, a lot of $$$.

[Duran Is The Man]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While MIN is no big spender, they do seem to spend more than many teams.

Would you do the same trade and add Story for Correa in the mix? MIN would save, a lot of $$$.

no.

[Larry Cook]

There is no perfect fit for yoshida, but it is bres-slow’s job to figure out how to move him along and free up that roster spot!