A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

6 PM on the 19th of NOV is the Rule 5 protection list date.

Dobbins is a cinch.

Fulmer is likely.

Jh Garcia and Monegro are debatable.

Maybe someone else is a surprise. I'm guessing 2-4, likely 3.

 

 

[moonslav59]

Would anyone trade Casas for 2 years of Yandy Diaz (a lefty killer) and Pete Fairbanks (an awesome set-up man?)

[notin]

22 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

This is why I've been saying over and over again Yoshida is not getting traded. 

Yoshida isn't bad, he's a good hitter, he's just not an excellent hitter and has no defense home.  Sox are stuck with him, if he's healthy, and puts up a 2.0 War next year, the prospect of trading for 2 years of him might be a little more enticing to a team out there. 

Honestly, he's a bench bat, he makes good contact, doesn't strike out a ton and seems to be able to hit for average when healthy.  He's just overpaid, at this point I think he just stays here.  Hopefully he offers good value off the bench and if he can stay healthy he's not a bad platoon DH.  Yeah I know, not exactly the sexiest phrase "platoon DH"

If Yoshida put up 2 fWAR as a DH, he’d be among the best in MLB.  Kyle Schwarber had only 3 fWAR as a DH in 670 PA.  JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and the recently traded Jorge Soler were all below 1 fWAR as DHs.

With DHs, some perspective is needed because the position has no defensive contribution…. 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

If Yoshida put up 2 fWAR as a DH, he’d be among the best in MLB.  Kyle Schwarber had only 3 fWAR as a DH in 670 PA.  JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and the recently traded Jorge Soler were all below 1 fWAR as DHs.

With DHs, some perspective is needed because the position has no defensive contribution…. 

I think he has more value than some think, but maybe the $7M/yr on BTV is a bit high. I'd guess $4-6M when healthy, and $6-9M, maybe more, if he can hit over .780 for a while and get reestablished.

I do not think dumping him for $3M a year savings is worth it, as of now, even if JH promised to use every cent of the savings on someone else.

 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

6 PM on the 19th of NOV is the Rule 5 protection list date.

Dobbins is a cinch.

Fulmer is likely.

Jh Garcia and Monegro are debatable.

Maybe someone else is a surprise. I'm guessing 2-4, likely 3.

I don't think Monegro has a chance of being protected or selected. He doesn't have the velo to stick in a MLB pen. 

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Would anyone trade Casas for 2 years of Yandy Diaz (a lefty killer) and Pete Fairbanks (an awesome set-up man?)

No.

[Hitch]

On 11/10/2024 at 7:31 PM, Hugh2 said:

The more I think about it the more I say he is going to reject it.  
 

the more I think about how undervalued the pitching market gets the stronger I feel about this.  

Yup. I've been feeling this way for a while. 

 

I'd say it's maybe even moved to likely he will decline which is a great bet by Breslow if it comes off.

[Hitch]

On 11/10/2024 at 5:43 PM, Randy Red Sox said:

I don't see Yoshida having much trade value at any point. 

I'd happily give him away for nothing to get that contract off the books, but nobody is paying that money for him. Eat half his contract and bite the bullet (when healthy).

[Hugh2]

1 hour ago, notin said:

If Yoshida put up 2 fWAR as a DH, he’d be among the best in MLB.  Kyle Schwarber had only 3 fWAR as a DH in 670 PA.  JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and the recently traded Jorge Soler were all below 1 fWAR as DHs.

With DHs, some perspective is needed because the position has no defensive contribution…. 

A. Yoshida has never put up 2 WAR, I think that's his ceiling, in that if fully healthy maybe he has one year like that. 

B. Those guys you listed aren't perennial 1 WAR players either, guys like Giancarlo Stanton and JD Martinez are glimpses of what they once were. 

C. if he did put up a 2 FWar and he probably never will, the more I think about it his ceiling might be closer to a 1.5 WAR player and if he can't stay healthy he may continue around the 1 mark but he would have been the 8th best DH.  Being the 8th best at a position certainly doesn't make you elite, maybe at short stop or starting pitcher it does but certainly not DH.  I think our perception of DH is skewed because we were spoiled from years of David Ortiz (ah memories).  Most teams don't really even employ a full time DH anymore I think something like only 4-5 guys had over 500 PA's as a DH last year.   I could be wrong on that. 

[Larry Cook]

Hoping pivetta declines and we use that money to sign fried 

[moonslav59]

QO Pitchers: Burnes, Fried, Manaea, Martinez, Pivetta & Severino.

You wonder, if we avoid some on this list due to losing a draft pick.

 

[moonslav59]

I tried to get some BTV numbers for possible trades and found this:

Red Sox Values: 65.2 Anthony, 64.9 Mayer, 38.6 Campbell, 30.3 Abreu, 24.0 Crawford, 18.7 Casas, 15 Montgomery,  11.5 DHam, 13.3 Bleis, 10.5 Arias, 8.9 Cespedes, 7.4 Criswell, 5.4 Wink, 4.2 Romero

Targets:

MIN: 37.4 Pablo Lopez, 33.3 Joe Ryan, 31.0 Jhoan Duran, 24.0 Ober

SEA: 111.4 Kirby, 65.6 Gilbert, 57.6 Miller, 50.5 Woo, -30.6 L Castillo

CWS: 42.2 Crochet, 12.2 L Robert

DET: 79.7 Skubal

MIA: 20.6 Alcantara, 11.5 Luzardo

I'm still for Abreu & DHam for Lopez, Ryan, Crochet or Alcantara + Luzardo.

Mayer for Gilbert, Miller or Woo.

Mayer + Abreu for Skubal?

How about Mayer, Abreu & Crawford for Kirby?

[Randy Red Sox]

4 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Hoping pivetta declines and we use that money to sign fried 

don't hold your breath.  I am just wondering why Atlanta is not resigning him

[Larry Cook]

42 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

don't hold your breath.  I am just wondering why Atlanta is not resigning him

Is there damage to the elbow that Atlanta knows and has not discussed? 

[moonslav59]

Knowing our luck, we sign Fried, Pivetta signs with ATL and wins the Cy Young in '25.

I can just imagine all the posters saying how dumb Brez was.

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I tried to get some BTV numbers for possible trades and found this:

Red Sox Values: 65.2 Anthony, 64.9 Mayer, 38.6 Campbell, 30.3 Abreu, 24.0 Crawford, 18.7 Casas, 15 Montgomery,  11.5 DHam, 13.3 Bleis, 10.5 Arias, 8.9 Cespedes, 7.4 Criswell, 5.4 Wink, 4.2 Romero

Targets:

MIN: 37.4 Pablo Lopez, 33.3 Joe Ryan, 31.0 Jhoan Duran, 24.0 Ober

SEA: 111.4 Kirby, 65.6 Gilbert, 57.6 Miller, 50.5 Woo, -30.6 L Castillo

CWS: 42.2 Crochet, 12.2 L Robert

DET: 79.7 Skubal

MIA: 20.6 Alcantara, 11.5 Luzardo

I'm still for Abreu & DHam for Lopez, Ryan, Crochet or Alcantara + Luzardo.

Mayer for Gilbert, Miller or Woo.

Mayer + Abreu for Skubal?

How about Mayer, Abreu & Crawford for Kirby?

Seattle is unlikely to trade a starter this offseason although the Mariners might consider a trade of Luis Castillo at a value higher than his BTV's value.

This three-way trade proposal involving the Red Sox, Mariners and Rays remains intriguing:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/175846

😁😁😁

[Duran Is The Man]

38 minutes ago, harmony said:

Seattle is unlikely to trade a starter this offseason although the Mariners might consider a trade of Luis Castillo at a value higher than his BTV's value.

This three-way trade proposal involving the Red Sox, Mariners and Rays remains intriguing:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/175846

😁😁😁

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

18 hours ago, notin said:

If Yoshida put up 2 fWAR as a DH, he’d be among the best in MLB.  Kyle Schwarber had only 3 fWAR as a DH in 670 PA.  JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and the recently traded Jorge Soler were all below 1 fWAR as DHs.

With DHs, some perspective is needed because the position has no defensive contribution…. 

Just wondering if pitches seen per at bat are figured into any WAR formulas? There has to be some additional value for a batter who commands the strike zone and thus commands extra focus from stressed pitchers -- who are then more apt to make mistakes to subsequent hitters...

Here are some career pitches per plate appearance from bb-ref:

Schwarber 4.23, Judge 4.23, Soto 4.13, Casas 4.13, Boggs 4.13

Betts 3.97, Ohtani 3.96, Jackie Bradley Jr. 3.90, Bonds 3.89

JD Martinez 3.88, Devers 3.81, Yoshida 3.78, Rafaela 3.67

Records not available for Ted Williams, so the modern winner may be Rickey Henderson 4.34... in 7.854 PA he saw 34,058 pitches!

[notin]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

6 PM on the 19th of NOV is the Rule 5 protection list date.

Dobbins is a cinch.

Fulmer is likely.

Jh Garcia and Monegro are debatable.

Maybe someone else is a surprise. I'm guessing 2-4, likely 3.

 

 

As of today, the Sox have only one open spot on their 40 man roster, which means one protectee and no pick.

 

They have a few potential DFAs they need to clear out first.  Candidates include Gasper, Sogard, Shugart, and Horn.  Not in that order…

[moonslav59]

9 hours ago, harmony said:

Seattle is unlikely to trade a starter this offseason although the Mariners might consider a trade of Luis Castillo at a value higher than his BTV's value.

This three-way trade proposal involving the Red Sox, Mariners and Rays remains intriguing:

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/175846

😁😁😁

We need a RHB, not Raley, but an interesting suggested trade.

[notin]

17 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

A. Yoshida has never put up 2 WAR, I think that's his ceiling, in that if fully healthy maybe he has one year like that. 

B. Those guys you listed aren't perennial 1 WAR players either, guys like Giancarlo Stanton and JD Martinez are glimpses of what they once were. 

C. if he did put up a 2 FWar and he probably never will, the more I think about it his ceiling might be closer to a 1.5 WAR player and if he can't stay healthy he may continue around the 1 mark but he would have been the 8th best DH.  Being the 8th best at a position certainly doesn't make you elite, maybe at short stop or starting pitcher it does but certainly not DH.  I think our perception of DH is skewed because we were spoiled from years of David Ortiz (ah memories).  Most teams don't really even employ a full time DH anymore I think something like only 4-5 guys had over 500 PA's as a DH last year.   I could be wrong on that. 

If I asked the difference between a 2.0 fWAR DH and a 1.5 fWAR DH, what would that be?

And while it’s true, only 4 players had 500 PA as a DH, it doesn’t mean much at all and certainly doesn’t mean teams don’t employ a full time DH.  Only 5 players had 500 PA as a right fielder, but I think we can agree the overwhelming majority of teams do have a full time right fielder …

[moonslav59]

23 minutes ago, notin said:

As of today, the Sox have only one open spot on their 40 man roster, which means one protectee and no pick.

 

They have a few potential DFAs they need to clear out first.  Candidates include Gasper, Sogard, Shugart, and Horn.  Not in that order…

I think we will make a trade or DFA someone before the Rule 5 addition deadline.

I think Gasper is #1, as we will likely add a catcher, later. He will probably not be claimed, but one never knows. He hit very well, on the farm, last year.

My list, in order, of DFA candidates:

1. Gasper

2. Sogard

3. Shugart

4. Horn

Murphy, Wikelman, Booser and Bernardino are borderline trade/DFA.

I also am pretty certain Abreu gets traded, at some point, and maybe fellow LHB'er DHam, too.

We will need space for FA additions, as well, and between all the players listed above, I don't really see any major roster crunch issues. We could add 3-4 Rule 5 guys and 3-4 FA signings and lose nobody of great significance, IMO.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

If I asked the difference between a 2.0 fWAR DH and a 1.5 fWAR DH, what would that be?

And while it’s true, only 4 players had 500 PA as a DH, it doesn’t mean much at all and certainly doesn’t mean teams don’t employ a full time DH.  Only 5 players had 500 PA as a right fielder, but I think we can agree the overwhelming majority of teams do have a full time right fielder …

Yoshida has a total fWAR of 1.4 in 2 seasons - about 1.5 seasons games played wise.

Even an fWAR of 1.5 looks like wishcasting at this point.  

[Hugh2]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

 

And while it’s true, only 4 players had 500 PA as a DH, it doesn’t mean much at all and certainly doesn’t mean teams don’t employ a full time DH.  Only 5 players had 500 PA as a right fielder, but I think we can agree the overwhelming majority of teams do have a full time right fielder …

"I asked the difference between a 2.0 fWAR DH and a 1.5 fWAR DH, what would that be?" .5 WAR

I'll double down, teams just don't employ full time DH's.  If a team rotates the DH and has 2 guys with over 300 at bats, is that on par with a team that platoons in RF? Also a team might remove a guy for a defensive replacement in RF, and other guys get at bats but that should never happen if you're a competent DH.  Here's another factoid.  211 batters took swings as a RF, 338 at DH. There's only 30 teams.  How can 338 guys DH for 30 teams if most teams are not employing a full time DH. 

I think with the position, guys settle in.  If you're ONLY job is to hit, you're not playing the field then you're going to DH a lot.  This is probably why a lot of teams end up with a DH who is getting 200-300 at bats, but they're not David Ortiz.  Teams aren't out looking for stud starting DH's the same way they are for a RF or any position player for that matter. 

Honestly, Yoshida is a sunk cost.  If he's hitting he can DH, if he's not he'll ride the bench more. He's been a decent hitter when healthy, if he can actually string together a healthy season with a half way decent stat line. Trading two years of his contract might be a lot easier than 3, especially if he's not coming back from injury next year.  

I just think he's practically immovable.  I'm using BTV here and I know all our feelings on it but I'll continue regardless.  They'd have to package up someone like Crawford to move all his money.  NOW, with that a team is still going to have to pay Yoshidas $18 million now AND Crawfords arby years? so that rules out a small market team.  And a larger market team is now going to have to make 40 man spots for both those guys.  I just don't see that happening this offseason.  It's not happening. 

[Hugh2]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yoshida has a total fWAR of 1.4 in 2 seasons - about 1.5 seasons games played wise.

Even an fWAR of 1.5 looks like wishcasting at this point.  

It's.  I think that's what a career year might look like for him.  Oddly enough Steamer projects him to have a 1.2 WAR next year.  But they also project over 500 PA's for him and I don't see that happening. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yoshida has a total fWAR of 1.4 in 2 seasons - about 1.5 seasons games played wise.

Even an fWAR of 1.5 looks like wishcasting at this point.  

He's not getting younger, either, but DH'ing mostly could help. 

I think adjusting to the new culture and game could offer reason to think he could do better, but I just don't see how we can expect any better than what he gave us in 2023-2024, but maybe at more PAs.

He does have a 3.2 bWAR, career, which does come to about a 2.0 for 650 PAs.

fWAR really slams DHs. He has a career 111 OPS+ which is a plus for a DH, but not great. He has value, but just falls way short of the $18M a year he gets.

I think we hold onto him, until he gets healthy and a top prospect is busting down the door. None of our top prospects need to be added to the 40, and they won't be added until they are going to the 26 as a FT or very near FT player. There simply is not enough slots in the line-up for 4, right now. Even 3 is pushing it, and the catcher position might be the one slot, where our top prospect, Teel, is the least ML ready of the top 4-5 prospects at AAA (including Meidroth.)

To me, if Campbell, Mayer and Anthony are on the 26, Yoshida and Abreu will be traded, and whoever is playing 2B will be utility. Even this configuration squeezes the middle IF or moves Campbell to the OF or DH (3B, if we move Devers to 1B and Casas to DH, as I would like.)

This would be my ideal alignment (with Abreu traded):

C: Jansen or Higgy/Wong (Teel in '26)

1B: Devers (Casas back-up)

2B: Mayer (until Story moves here)

SS: Story

3B: Campbell (Devers back-up)

LF: Duran/Ref

CF: Rafaela/Duran

RF: Anthony

DH: Casas (Ref back-up)

Utility: Grissom, DHam, Wong, (Ref or Rafaela, whoever is not starting)

 

[harmony]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

We need a RHB, not Raley, but an interesting suggested trade.

What if the trade proposal subtracts Triston Casas ($18.7 million surplus value) and Luke Raley ($19 million surplus value), who each have four years of team control?

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/175846

Would Randy Arozarena be a better fit than Raley in the proposal?

[notin]

14 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

don't hold your breath.  I am just wondering why Atlanta is not resigning him

Are they out on him?  They still might try to re-sign him…

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Are they out on him?  They still might try to re-sign him…

They let Freeman and Swanson leave. I think the GM likes to extend and then move on if they can't keep them in house for cheap. 

[notin]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

They let Freeman and Swanson leave. I think the GM likes to extend and then move on if they can't keep them in house for cheap. 

If so, it’s clearly not an elbow issue. Did they even try to extend him? They also have serious pitching depth in the upper minors, so maybe they prefer not and might save the cash to lock up Strider…