A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Pablo Sandoval? 

Jordan Montgomery.

Who really knows what impacts free agent signing decisions any more?  Seems like a lot of randomness/luck involved, like everything else in baseball.
 

[Bellhorn04]

11 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is walker beuhler worth purposing in free agency 

The simple answer is yes.  But it's hard to see the Sox being the team to do it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The simple answer is yes.  But it's hard to see the Sox being the team to do it.

Someone -- I'll call him my son -- cautions signing an oft-injured pitcher based on what he just did in a good couple of weeks in the postseason.

I replied that Nate Eovaldi did the exact same bling. Then blinged agin... 

[Bellhorn04]

The oft-injured starting pitcher has come to be more like the norm than the aberration.

The Dodgers just won the World Series with a 3-man rotation consisting of 2 guys who pitched a total of 165.1 innings this year, and a trade deadline acquisition.

[notin]

On 10/31/2024 at 7:43 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

If Henry approved what it took to keep Mookie the Sale extension might not have happened.

There's just no limit to the bad things that flowed from Henry's horrific failure.

I got the impression DD turned to Sale and Bogaerts only after talks with Mookie broke down…

[Bellhorn04]

19 minutes ago, notin said:

I got the impression DD turned to Sale and Bogaerts only after talks with Mookie broke down…

It seems like a logical deduction.  At their season-ending press conference they said they'd like to keep all three but likely couldn't.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Pablo Sandoval? 

Key words, "all that much."

Pablito did have post season success in 2012 and 2014, but he also had a .794 OPS with SFG, during the regular season, His 123 OPS+ was six better than Bogey's 117 w the Sox.

All the warning signs were there, however:

130 OPS+ first 1869 PAs w SFG

116 OPS+ last 1664 w SFG (still near Bogey's career OPS+ w BOS)

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Key words, "all that much."

Pablito did have post season success in 2012 and 2014, but he also had a .794 OPS with SFG, during the regular season, His 123 OPS+ was six better than Bogey's 117 w the Sox.

All the warning signs were there, however:

130 OPS+ first 1869 PAs w SFG

116 OPS+ last 1664 w SFG (still near Bogey's career OPS+ w BOS)

Bogey's last 5 seasons (2700+ PA) with BOS: 133 OPS+

Not sure why you are so down on him right now. 🤷‍♀️

[Bellhorn04]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Bogey's last 5 seasons (2700+ PA) with BOS: 133 OPS+

Not sure why you are so down on him right now. 🤷‍♀️

I think it was you who pointed out the decline in Bogey's power as a warning sign.

He actually boosted his WAR in 2022 with a notable improvement in defense.

The bottom line is that for San Diego to give 11 years and 280 million to a shortstop who will likely be moved to a new position soon, and whose power has declined, was flat-out bonkers.

And I like Bogaerts a lot.  I actually feel a little sorry for him in that he got a contract that's going to be pointed to as a disaster when it's all said and done. 

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think it was you who pointed out the decline in Bogey's power as a warning sign.

He actually boosted his WAR in 2022 with a notable improvement in defense.

The bottom line is that for San Diego to give 11 years and 280 million to a shortstop who will likely be moved to a new position, and whose power has declined, was flat-out bonkers.

And I like Bogaerts a lot.  I actually feel a little sorry for him in that he got a contract that's going to be pointed to as a disaster when it's all said and done. 

 

I like Bogaerts going forward, just not at the 280M the Padres gave him. At 180M it would have been fine IMO. 

I don't think his offense will play well in SD, but his fall off this year was strictly due to an injury. 

[notin]

19 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

Garcia isn't in competition with those pitching slots, just Sogard and Gasper. I think they try putting Wikelman in the pen and maybe trade or DFA him during the year. Murphy still has a lot of value, I wouldn't move on from him unless you know something I don't. 

Ian from SoxProspects believes they will protect Jhostynxon. 

I had Jhostnyxon as their third most likely to  be protected, behind Fulmer and Dobbins.  The only question is whether or not they protect 3.

I’d think Jhostnyxon isn’t likely to be selected, as very few A ball players are.  But we’ve all seen longer odds get taken, and some team like Oakland/Vegas/Sacramento/Narnia might simply because it’s such a low risk move…

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I like Bogaerts going forward, just not at the 280M the Padres gave him. At 180M it would have been fine IMO. 

I don't think his offense will play well in SD, but his fall off this year was strictly due to an injury. 

He just turned 32.  He's got 3-4 good years left, maybe.  That leaves 5-6 more.  

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Bogey's last 5 seasons (2700+ PA) with BOS: 133 OPS+

Not sure why you are so down on him right now. 🤷‍♀️

Change the subject- fine.

I'm not down on Bogey. I wish we had kept him.

I asked a question, "Would Sox Nation be happy with the last 2 years of Bogey had we signed him for $180M/6 or $220M/8?"

I guess, I'll put you down as a firm YES.

BTW, my views on Bogey have barely changed. I always wanted him on our team. I thought his defense was pretty bad, his offense was great and he was a clear net plus. At his age, I worried about decline and felt a change of position was needed. (I felt that when we signed Story, too.)

I'll always have very fond memories of his offense.

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, notin said:

I had Jhostnyxon as their third most likely to  be protected, behind Fulmer and Dobbins.  The only question is whether or not they protect 3.

I’d think Jhostnyxon isn’t likely to be selected, as very few A ball players are.  But we’ve all seen longer odds get taken, and some team like Oakland/Vegas/Sacramento/Narnia might simply because it’s such a low risk move…

Fulmer depends on health and only the Sox know where he's at.

Jhostynxon is a AA player. 

[mvp 78]

53 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He just turned 32.  He's got 3-4 good years left, maybe.  That leaves 5-6 more.  

That's why a 7/180 or something closer to that makes more sense than the 11 year contract the Padres gave out. It was just too long of a deal. I'd be fine with eating a year or two. Eating several is a bad business decision for a guy that isn't HOF caliber. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Fulmer depends on health and only the Sox know where he's at.

Jhostynxon is a AA player. 

While it's true, not many AA players are selected Rule 5, Drohan did start off in AA in 2023.

Thad Ward was drafted first in 2022. He started out in A-, went to A+ and spend teh rest of '22 in AA. He never played for Woo.

I don't think it is worth the risk of losing Jh Garcia over some of the names I mentioned.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While it's true, not many AA players are selected Rule 5, Drohan did start off in AA in 2023.

Thad Ward was drafted first in 2022. He started out in A-, went to A+ and spend teh rest of '22 in AA. He never played for Woo.

I don't think it is worth the risk of losing Jh Garcia over some of the names I mentioned.

Let's look at the past few years of position players that were drafted:

Nasim Nunez - AA 125 games

Deyvison De Los Santos - AA 113 games

Ryan Noda - AAA 135 games

Blake Sabol - AAA 25 games

Akil Baddoo - A+ 29 games (post COVID year)

Kyle Holder - AA 112 games (post COVID year)

Ka'ai Tom - AAA 51 games

Mark Payton - AAA 118 games

Vimael Machin - AAA 12 games

Jonathan Arauz - AA 28 games

Five guys drafted prior to reaching AAA. Ignoring the weird COVID year impact on Baddoo, most guys played at least a full year at AA or reached AAA before being picked. The only exception was our boy Arauz. My guess is that the Sox picked Arauz to help with the MIF depth and then with the truncated season it was just too easy to hold onto him. Didn't work out though. 

I think someone could look at Garcia and think they could turn him into a Baddoo, a guy who had one strong season and now is just kind of a backup role player. For a Rule 5 pick that basically costs you nothing except roster space, it could be worthwhile for the CHW, OAK, or a bunch of other teams that need/like to hoard young cheap labor.

[mvp 78]

The last offensive player to be drafted that really worked out was Anthony Santander. He was taken after not reaching AA. It took one year of sitting on the bench and another year plus of development in the minors before he was ready to contribute to the MLB team. Is that what another organization would want to do with Garcia? Maybe. 

[moonslav59]

You certainly have more expertise than I do on this sort of thing (and others, too.)

I'm not sure Jh Garcia will be selected or do well, if selected. If you are so sure, he won't, then maybe we shouldn't protect him, but teams do take chances on AA players, and IMO, I like Garcia's chances not just better but way better than the list of players I see as being #38, #39 and #40 on our roster, after we add a few players, like Dobbins, Fulmer and some FAs or trade additions.

To me, this is what I look at. Of course, if Sox management thinks there is a zero chance he gets selected, then fine. Maybe even 1%: fine. IMO, it's more about my dislike for guys like Wikelman, Murphy, Horn, Shugart and others and my belief that we don't have s et lock on a number of 40 man guys that need to be pitchers. I also think Sogard and Gasper and maybe even EValdez are easily replace by waiver wire guys, if needed, midseason. Those are everyday guys. We do need to add a catcher, so there goes one slot. I get that.

Maybe I'm too gah gah on Jh Garcia. I got that way on prospects that never amount to much, in the past. Maybe, this is another one of those times. At least you guys see him as a "maybe."

Another point is that even if we want to start the year with non Rule 5 guys on the 26 and 40- like Anthony, Campbell or someone else, we can wait until opening day, by placing someone on the 60 Day IL to add them. They need not start the season on the 40, day one. That could keep a slot open for Garcia.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You certainly have more expertise than I do on this sort of thing (and others, too.)

I'm not sure Jh Garcia will be selected or do well, if selected. If you are so sure, he won't, then maybe we shouldn't protect him, but teams do take chances on AA players, and IMO, I like Garcia's chances not just better but way better than the list of players I see as being #38, #39 and #40 on our roster, after we add a few players, like Dobbins, Fulmer and some FAs or trade additions.

To me, this is what I look at. Of course, if Sox management thinks there is a zero chance he gets selected, then fine. Maybe even 1%: fine. IMO, it's more about my dislike for guys like Wikelman, Murphy, Horn, Shugart and others and my belief that we don't have s et lock on a number of 40 man guys that need to be pitchers. I also think Sogard and Gasper and maybe even EValdez are easily replace by waiver wire guys, if needed, midseason. Those are everyday guys. We do need to add a catcher, so there goes one slot. I get that.

Maybe I'm too gah gah on Jh Garcia. I got that way on prospects that never amount to much, in the past. Maybe, this is another one of those times. At least you guys see him as a "maybe."

Another point is that even if we want to start the year with non Rule 5 guys on the 26 and 40- like Anthony, Campbell or someone else, we can wait until opening day, by placing someone on the 60 Day IL to add them. They need not start the season on the 40, day one. That could keep a slot open for Garcia.

As I've said before, I could see them playing the percentages and deciding not to protect Garcia because it gives them an extra year of not having him on the 40 man as they would retain that option year for the future and have flexibility to use that spot for an MLB player they intend on using this year. 

However, maybe they do see the value in Garcia and don't want to risk it for the biscuit and just decide to burn the option year this season and protect him? 

50/50 call IMO.

[moonslav59]

Call me a rose-colored glasses wearing homer or worse, but it's hard for me not to get optimistic about our future Sox teams.

The recent graduate list as as good as it's been in many years:

'21 Houck & Whitlock

'22 Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wong

'23 Casas & Kelly

'24 Slaten, Abreu, Rafaela & DHam

'25 ML Ready: Anthony, Campbell, Fitts, Mayer, Teel, Guerrero, Penrod, Dobbins, Meidroth

No doubt we still have major gaps and an owner with unknown intentions with the budget, but we have a solid base of young players that is only growing and improving. Add to this, the fact that Devers is younger than Duran and only Houck, Duran and Crawford are arb eligible, this winter- all just year one.

Things are brighter: it's not just a perception.

Yes, we lose Jansen, Pivetta, O'Neill and Martin, but we already can see we are adding many prospects, plus Hendriks, Gio, Fulmer as well as possible full seasons from many partial season 2024 players. It should not take major additions to turn us into a playoff team. It will take a couple or 3 to make us strong contenders, but that's closer than we have been in many years. We don't need to spread the winter budget across 5-7 players: 3 key players can be enough.

 

[mvp 78]

Soto and two high value starting pitchers. No, I'm not day drinking. No, I haven't laid any traps for Vlad Dracul yet. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Call me a rose-colored glasses wearing homer or worse, but it's hard for me not to get optimistic about our future Sox teams.

The recent graduate list as as good as it's been in many years:

'21 Houck & Whitlock

'22 Duran, Bello, Crawford, Wong

'23 Casas & Kelly

'24 Slaten, Abreu, Rafaela & DHam

'25 ML Ready: Anthony, Campbell, Fitts, Mayer, Teel, Guerrero, Penrod, Dobbins, Meidroth

No doubt we still have major gaps and an owner with unknown intentions with the budget, but we have a solid base of young players that is only growing and improving. Add to this, the fact that Devers is younger than Duran and only Houck, Duran and Crawford are arb eligible, this winter- all just year one.

Things are brighter: it's not just a perception.

Yes, we lose Jansen, Pivetta, O'Neill and Martin, but we already can see we are adding many prospects, plus Hendriks, Gio, Fulmer as well as possible full seasons from many partial season 2024 players. It should not take major additions to turn us into a playoff team. It will take a couple or 3 to make us strong contenders, but that's closer than we have been in many years. We don't need to spread the winter budget across 5-7 players: 3 key players can be enough.

 

There's nothing wrong with being optimistic, and the optimism may prove well-founded.  But there's a lot of uncertainty attached to many of those names.  Or in some cases, they're just not that good at this point (Wong and Rafaela were 1 fWAR players).

O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin totaled 6.8 fWAR. 

How many of the names you listed had an fWAR of 2 or higher in 2024?

I think as it stands, everything depends on a) the kids and b) significant pitching additions.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's nothing wrong with being optimistic, and the optimism may prove well-founded.  But there's a lot of uncertainty attached to many of those names.  Or in some cases, they're just not that good at this point (Wong and Rafaela were 1 fWAR players).

O'Neill, Pivetta, Jansen and Martin totaled 6.8 fWAR. 

How many of the names you listed had an fWAR of 2 or higher in 2024?

I think as it stands, everything depends on a) the kids and b) significant pitching additions.

The thing is, we have about 13-15 everyday players and just need a solid 9. Yes, there are questions and hopes involved, but I do not think it's unfounded hopes and expectations. More often than not a number one prospect does okay in year one, and Campbell hit better than Anthony in '24. The chances one from Anthony, Campbell and Mayer do well should be much better than 50-50. Counting on Story may be foolish, but we really just need his glove, not really his bat. Wong may not be young, anymore, but catchers often mature after 28, or even 30. Casas missed a lot of games, but seems to have proven he can hit. Abreu and Rafaela may end up on some sort of platoon rotation- maximizing both of their values. Devers may get hurt, again, but maybe not. Duran seems to keep getting better and better, but maybe he regresses. I'm not sure should count on regression from anyone but maybe Ref and Yoshida, due to their ages.

IMO, it will be about the pitching. I do not see Hendriks, Fulmer, and Gio-Fitts-Priester as equal to Jansen, Martin & Pivetta. They all may help, but we need outside help with our staff- at least two quality pitchers..

[a700hitter]

At a minimum, Breslow should add Snell and Teoscar Hernandez for 2025.

[notin]

23 hours ago, Larry Cook said:

Is walker beuhler worth purposing in free agency 

No.

On the bright side, he’s a good pitcher whose Twitter/X handle is @BuehlersDayOff21.

On the downside, he’s only 30 and has already had TJ TWICE!!! No pitcher having a third one has ever pitched again.* Doubtful he gets a long deal, but even a 2-3 year contract stands a far too big of a chance at ending quickly in a pile of dead money and shattered hopes…

 

 

 

*Johnny Venters did, but not very well and not for very long.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, a700hitter said:

At a minimum, Breslow should add Snell and Teoscar Hernandez for 2025.

The first guy is perfect for another dice roll pitcher: the second squeezes a good OF'er off the roster.

[moonslav59]

The Athletic projects these FA salaries:

$41.5M x 15 Soto

$35.2M x 7 Burnes (list Sox as fit)

$35M x 3 Snell

$29M x 6 Fried (Sox fit)

$27M x 7 Alonso

$26.6M x 7 Bregman

$25M x 6 Adames

$23.5 x 6 Santander

$28M x 4 Bellinger

$25M x 3 Teoscar H

$24M x 3 C Walker

$22.6M x 3 Manaea & Flaherty

$18M x 3 Wacha

$21M x 2 Nate (Sox fit)

$15M x 4 Scott

$14.7M x 3 Profar

$14M x 3 Kikuchi (maybe in Sox price range?)

$11M x 4 G Torres

$17M x 2 Hoskins

$16M x 2 O'Neal (Sox only listed fit) & Severino (Sox fit)

$13.3M x 3 N Martinez (Sox fit and maybe most likely signing)

$14M x 2 J Quintana

$11M x 3 Estevez (Sox fit and maybe affordable)

$20M x 1 Morton

$13M x 2 Pederson & Dugo

$12M x 2 B Lowe

$9M x 3 J Hoffman (Sox fit)

$15M x 1 Goldschmidt

$9.3M x 2 C Holmes (Sox)

$8.5M x 2 Treinen

$10M x 1 Boyd (S0x)

$6M x 2 Iggy

Other odd bals...

Buehler and H S Kim $10m + incentives

Bieber: "Low Base Salary w incentives"

Monty takes $22.5M option & AZ trades him

If our AAV budget is between $35-45M, we could do a lot....

$15M x 4 Scott

$13,3M x 3 N Martinez

$11M x 3 Esteves

This is just over $39M. Sub Nate for Nick at about the same contract number but more AAV ($47M total)

Kikuchi, Nick and Tanner would be under $45M AAV

Soto & C Holmes is just over $50M AAV. (Trade Abreu, DHam and Fitts for SP)

Burnes and Esteves is just over $45M AAV, but Fried and Scott are just under $45M.

My choices, if we spend $45M AAV:

1. $15M x 4 Scott, $13.3M x 3 N Martinez,  $11M x 3 Esteves + Bieber or Buehler

or

2. #13.3M x 3 Nick Martinez, $11M x 3 Estevez, $9,3M x 2 C Holmes, $9M x 3 Hoffman

or

3. $18M x Wacha or $21M Nate w $15M Scott and  $9M x 3 Hoffman

[jad]

23 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Jordan Montgomery.

Who really knows what impacts free agent signing decisions any more?  Seems like a lot of randomness/luck involved, like everything else in baseball.
 

I think when you sign FAs like Ohtani and F. Freeman and Yamamoto (and acquire a few role players and scrubs like Betts and T, Hernandez), you know exactly what the impact will be.  When you acquire players like Verdugo and Story and Yoshida and E. Hernandez--all decent players--then you're right, you have no idea what will happen.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 10/30/2024 at 6:02 PM, Duran Is The Man said:

i know you didn't ask me, but i'd sign him if it was fair and not stupid money. 

the $$ Flaherty will get from someone this offseason FAR EXCEED  what I would be willing to pay him. Guy got totally rocked in the post season. A # 3 at best. Far better to trade for a young stud like Crochet of the CWS.