A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

It’s hard to score him fairly for 2020.

Eovaldi’s main flaw is durability.  You can’t penalize him for 9 starts and 48 IP in a 60 game season.  But you can’t really credit him for his durability in it either.

He had a bad 2019.  An outstanding 2021.  And a moderate/questionable 2022….

 

 

I think it is fair to say Nate missed 25% of his starts in 2020 (3/12.)

In 2019, he pitched some in relief, but only started 12 out of 32 games and had a 5.99 ERA (5.90 FIP.)

In 2021-2022, he started 52 out of maybe 65 possible starts. (That's missing 20%.) He pitched real well, those two years (3.80 ERA, 3.36 FIP and 119 ERA+) 2020's numbers were similar to these, so he put up good numbers in 3 of the 4 years and missed 16 out of 77 starts or 21% of the starts.

I'd say he earned his salary. Price was another story, despite the ring influence.

[moonslav59]

29 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

As usual, a well thought out suggestion for improving the Sox. I have a little different take as I like an outfield of Duran, Anthony, Abreu and Refsnyder with Rafaela on the 40 man but getting a AAA assignment to improve his hitting. That outfield is fairly young, athletic and plays good defense although admittedly is not balanced at the plate.

An infield of Casas, Campbell, Story and Devers also makes sense although Devers at 31.5 Mil a year through 2033 makes me wonder if we will carry dead weight that will hurt us along the way. Grissom is a talented and young guy with upside if he can stay healthy. He is insurance in the infield and could add balance to the lineup. 

Wong and one other at catcher. Teel is not ready but a long term FA may not be needed as I expect Teel may make the jump in 2026.

Yoshida can hit and as a result may be of interest to another team who isn't as lefty  biased  as we are. Unloading his salary makes more sense to me and then Refsnyder, Devers, Casas or Grissom can DH.

I am not sold on a right hand power hitter with a high strikeout rate. If we do get one perhaps he should be able  to cover ist base when facing left hand starters. Perhaps keeping DHam makes sense for his speed, defense and versatility and trading from some of our other prospect talent to land a ist lline left hand starter and two quality arms for the bull pen although more likely much of the BP may have to come from the FA ranks.

I'm interested why you didn't mention Mayer.

 

 

I don't think Mayer starts on the 26 for opening day, unless someone is hurt, or he is raking in ST'ing.

I see that we have 4-5 ML ready prospects, who all are NOT even Rule 5. It makes sense to not add many of them, and take away a roster slot. If you wait until day 2, we can place a plyer on the 60 Day IL to create a roster slot for Mayer (or Campbell or Meidroth or Teel.)

We may even wait long enough for an extra year of control to kick in, but that is up for serious debate, and rightfully so.

I see Campbell as the guy most ready, and he can play 2B, while Story plays SS. I think they want to keep Mayer at SS for as long as possible, so Story's health affects the timing on Mayer. I also think his late season injury might affect his opening day status, but who knows?

I kinda like a Yoshida-Ref platoon at DH and not use Ref in the OF, unless needed or as a PH'er.

If we don't trade Abreu, which I'm fine with, since he shows more promised, to me, than Rafaela, I'd allign my OF like this:

LF: Abreu v RHPs, Duran v LHPs (Ref as the back-up, not an OF platoon)

CF: Duran v RHPs, Rafaela v LHPs (Campbell as a possible back-up, especially if Rahaela sucks.)

RF: Anthony FT (Abreu as the back-up, not Ref)

[Randy Red Sox]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I think it is fair to say Nate missed 25% of his starts in 2020 (3/12.)

In 2019, he pitched some in relief, but only started 12 out of 32 games and had a 5.99 ERA (5.90 FIP.)

In 2021-2022, he started 52 out of maybe 65 possible starts. (That's missing 20%.) He pitched real well, those two years (3.80 ERA, 3.36 FIP and 119 ERA+) 2020's numbers were similar to these, so he put up good numbers in 3 of the 4 years and missed 16 out of 77 starts or 21% of the starts.

I'd say he earned his salary. Price was another story, despite the ring influence.

do you still want the Sox to sign Flaherty?

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

do you still want the Sox to sign Flaherty?

He'd be a better SP signing than anyone since Nate.

[Duran Is The Man]

10 minutes ago, Randy Red Sox said:

do you still want the Sox to sign Flaherty?

i know you didn't ask me, but i'd sign him if it was fair and not stupid money. 

[Larry Cook]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I only listed Grandal, because I think he can be signed to a one year deal, and that is what JH will want. (He will also cost less, so double bonus for JH & his wallet.)

Is grandal an improvement over Jansen 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Larry Cook said:

Is grandal an improvement over Jansen 

No. Next question…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i know you didn't ask me, but i'd sign him if it was fair and not stupid money. 

They pretty much all make stupid money…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, notin said:

They pretty much all make stupid money…

Give it to Buehler -- he makes Yankees look stupid

[jad]

On 10/22/2024 at 8:54 AM, Hugh2 said:

Nothing.  So what? irrelevant. 

What does a guy not on this roster have to do with players on it growing and improving?

 The following players on the 2015 Red Sox came back in 2016 and improved their war by

Mookie Betts +2.6

David Ortiz +1.7

Rick Porcello +4

Dustin Pedroia +1.6

Hanley Ramirez +4

Stephen Wright +3

Sandy Leon +2.6

 

None of that was free agency or offseason moves.  My statement was 100% about this team having the talent on it to grow and bounce back better than 81 wins. 

And let me reiterate, just so there's no confusion. I don't think they can compete for a world series WITHOUT making significant upgrades to the roster. 

 

Anyone who doubts the virtue of shedding salary (Story for Betts), or saving money and not wasting it on the latest flash in the pan (Yoshida for Ohtani), should have those doubts erased after last night.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, jad said:

Anyone who doubts the virtue of shedding salary (Story for Betts), or saving money and not wasting it on the latest flash in the pan (Yoshida for Ohtani), should have those doubts erased after last night.

Every time a poster or reporter types that LA beat NY because the Dodgers had the better defense, they're talking about Betts.

Mookie was the best all-around player in the World Series. He made many great plays, robbing Yankee batters and fighting off thugs in the stands. He also drove in the run that won the title, led LA in OPS, and left Cole in the dust watching him hustle out a grounder that extended a comeback inning for the ages. 

[notin]

38 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Every time a poster or reporter types that LA beat NY because the Dodgers had the better defense, they're talking about Betts.

Mookie was the best all-around player in the World Series. He made many great plays, robbing Yankee batters and fighting off thugs in the stands. He also drove in the run that won the title, led LA in OPS, and left Cole in the dust watching him hustle out a grounder that extended a comeback inning for the ages. 

Betts was the best all around player in the series, but the biggest surprise on defense had to be Teoscar Hernandez…

[Bellhorn04]

42 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Every time a poster or reporter types that LA beat NY because the Dodgers had the better defense, they're talking about Betts.

Mookie was the best all-around player in the World Series. He made many great plays, robbing Yankee batters and fighting off thugs in the stands. He also drove in the run that won the title, led LA in OPS, and left Cole in the dust watching him hustle out a grounder that extended a comeback inning for the ages. 

Betts is the most complete player in the game and I'm not sure who's close.  And of course John Henry is a complete _______ for letting him go.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, notin said:

Betts was the best all around player in the series, but the biggest surprise on defense had to be Teoscar Hernandez…

Another guy who was on the Interest Kings List this past offseason...

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, notin said:

It’s hard to score him fairly for 2020.

Eovaldi’s main flaw is durability.  You can’t penalize him for 9 starts and 48 IP in a 60 game season.  But you can’t really credit him for his durability in it either.

He had a bad 2019.  An outstanding 2021.  And a moderate/questionable 2022….

Yes, he was kind of all over the map which it's why the contract kind of works out in the end. Maybe? You have to talk yourself into it and it's only because of 2021.

[mvp 78]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I don't think Mayer starts on the 26 for opening day, unless someone is hurt, or he is raking in ST'ing.

Even if he's raking, it would take something incredibly drastic at the MLB level for him to get there on Opening Day. They are going to take their time with him no matter what. Spring Training stats have value, but he had zero AB's at AAA last year and there were platoon issues last season offspeed pitch issues to work on as well from what I remember. He's not at Campbell or Anthony's level. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Yes, he was kind of all over the map which it's why the contract kind of works out in the end. Maybe? You have to talk yourself into it and it's only because of 2021.

It was a defensible signing, I think we can say that much.  

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It was a defensible signing, I think we can say that much.  

It was better than the Sale extension when we all saw that Sale was injured at the time. 

[Bellhorn04]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It was better than the Sale extension when we all saw that Sale was injured at the time. 

If Henry approved what it took to keep Mookie the Sale extension might not have happened.

There's just no limit to the bad things that flowed from Henry's horrific failure.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

If Henry approved what it took to keep Mookie the Sale extension might not have happened.

There's just no limit to the bad things that flowed from Henry's horrific failure.

Even if they are in the exact same W/L scenario 2020-2024, they would be much better going forward with Mookie on board than what they did otherwise. He's just a dynamic player who should age fairly well and a guy you can build around and market for a long, long time. 

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they are in the exact same W/L scenario 2020-2024, they would be much better going forward with Mookie on board than what they did otherwise. He's just a dynamic player who should age fairly well and a guy you can build around and market for a long, long time. 

We'll never really know what Henry was thinking.  I can't help wondering if he just got pissy because Mookie seemed to be playing hardball with him.

[mvp 78]

39 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

We'll never really know what Henry was thinking.  I can't help wondering if he just got pissy because Mookie seemed to be playing hardball with him.

Henry likes to come up with a $ value and stick with it. It always comes back and bites him in the ass in the end. You hire a GM for a reason, let them manage the team's finances. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Henry likes to come up with a $ value and stick with it. It always comes back and bites him in the ass in the end. You hire a GM for a reason, let them manage the team's finances. 

IMHO the Betts situation can't be compared to any other contract negotiation.  This is a guy who'll go down as one of the very best.  Henry treated it like just another calculation.

[oldtimer]

If you could have either of these two players straight up for the Sox, who would you take? Devers vs Soto?

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

If you could have either of these two players straight up for the Sox, who would you take? Devers vs Soto?

Soto all the way, especially because he seems 100% healthy whereas Devers now has barking shoulders. 

A moot point of course.  Soto is going to get a frighteningly big contract.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

17 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

IMHO the Betts situation can't be compared to any other contract negotiation.  This is a guy who'll go down as one of the very best.  Henry treated it like just another calculation.

Well, if I had to pick between giving a monster contract to either Mookie or Devers, it certainly would have been Mookie.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

8 minutes ago, oldtimer said:

If you could have either of these two players straight up for the Sox, who would you take? Devers vs Soto?

Soto, he's younger and healthier.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

Well, if I had to pick between giving a monster contract to either Mookie or Devers, it certainly would have been Mookie.

To be brutal about it, Devers is half the player, making about the same money. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

Even if they are in the exact same W/L scenario 2020-2024, they would be much better going forward with Mookie on board than what they did otherwise. He's just a dynamic player who should age fairly well and a guy you can build around and market for a long, long time. 

Those who disagree and said signing Mookie wouldn't be worth it, because he couldn't win with what the Red Sox would surround him with -- since his contract ate up so much budget -- may want to reconsider.

How about this: the Dodgers won two World Series because they signed Mookie.

(so far...)

 

[mvp 78]

24 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

IMHO the Betts situation can't be compared to any other contract negotiation.  This is a guy who'll go down as one of the very best.  Henry treated it like just another calculation.

Just the value to the franchise of having a marketable Mookie Betts takes the contract from 300 to 400M. Henry was such a dumbass for that.