A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Rafaela's hitting will never get to the level most people will be happy with. People need to lower their expectations. 

I'd be "happy" at .690-.720, every year, and he may end up as our 4th OF'er or platoon with Abreu, anyway.

I'm not sure he can maintain even .690, so I'm not "expecting" it, but he might find a way to stay there.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd be "happy" at .690-.720, every year, and he may end up as our 4th OF'er or platoon with Abreu, anyway.

I'm not sure he can maintain even .690, so I'm not "expecting" it, but he might find a way to stay there.

It's clear that the majority of people will NOT be happy at that level. 

[mvp 78]

41 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Dillon Lawson has been promoted to assistant hitting coach.  Wonderful news. 😛

Did the hitters in POR and WOO do good or no? What's the real issue here? 

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's clear that the majority of people will NOT be happy at that level. 

I totally agree, despite the fact that .690 seems like the new .725.

MLB hit .711 in 2024. (.243 BA and .312 OBP)

Out of the top 270 batters by PAs in 2024, JD Martinez was at 135 with a .725 OPS. That is not the mean.

The middle third tier (90 to 180) has a range of .690 to .760.

.690 is truly the cutoff to the bottom third tier in MLB, now. If you are GG quality on D and bat in the middle third tier, should you really be considered unacceptable?

The bottom third tier is divided about like this:

.655-.689 3rd worst group of 30 batters

.625-.650 2nd worst group of 30

.573-.650 worst 30 batters in MLB (bottom 1/9th)

[Hugh2]

So how much is a guy who has a .765 OPS and .823 in the second half last year hurting this team?

[moonslav59]

16 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

So how much is a guy who has a .765 OPS and .823 in the second half last year hurting this team?

By about $11.25M a year.

🤪

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

By about $11.25M a year.

🤪

Just think of all the Kluber we could sign for that!

[moonslav59]

38 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just think of all the Kluber we could sign for that!

Exactly! Richards + Kluber + Paxton= 3 years of about that much.

🤪

[jdc69]

Hello, I am new. I couldn't reply to anyone's comment so I will say that I was somewhat satisfied with the lack of movement at the trade deadline, though thought they would've done better. I don't know why John Henry got rid of Mookie or Jon Lester before him, for that matter but think he came up with a good nucleus of a team, sans pitching, which needs help. I thought getting rid of Sale was OK because maybe he just needed a new place. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

7 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Hello, I am new. I couldn't reply to anyone's comment so I will say that I was somewhat satisfied with the lack of movement at the trade deadline, though thought they would've done better. I don't know why John Henry got rid of Mookie or Jon Lester before him, for that matter but think he came up with a good nucleus of a team, sans pitching, which needs help. I thought getting rid of Sale was OK because maybe he just needed a new place. 

This postseason we're seeing several good starting pitchers who may be looking for a new place -- if the price is right...

.... so that may exclude Fenway Park, if the front office recent hiring of a former Rays' player evaluator means more of the Tampa Bay WAY.

[Hugh2]

13 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Just think of all the Kluber we could sign for that!

Exactly, that's whats hurting this team.  John Henry's affinity against investing too much money or years into one player, yet 3 $11 million dollar men who fail is just as bad as signing an allstar who fails as well.  

Just look at the two teams battling it out in the world series (although it hasn't been much of a battle so far) the Yankees and Dodgers haven't been afraid to shop at the top of the market and they find themselves on the biggest stage.  Coincidence? I think not. 

Yoshida isn't hurting this team.  John Henry is. 

[Bellhorn04]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Exactly, that's whats hurting this team.  John Henry's affinity against investing too much money or years into one player, yet 3 $11 million dollar men who fail is just as bad as signing an allstar who fails as well.  

Just look at the two teams battling it out in the world series (although it hasn't been much of a battle so far) the Yankees and Dodgers haven't been afraid to shop at the top of the market and they find themselves on the biggest stage.  Coincidence? I think not. 

Yoshida isn't hurting this team.  John Henry is. 

It's been a brutal combo of Henry not approving very many big moves, and his CBOs whiffing hard on their limited chances.

But he's the one ultimately responsible for all of it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

8 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Hello, I am new. I couldn't reply to anyone's comment so I will say that I was somewhat satisfied with the lack of movement at the trade deadline, though thought they would've done better. I don't know why John Henry got rid of Mookie or Jon Lester before him, for that matter but think he came up with a good nucleus of a team, sans pitching, which needs help. I thought getting rid of Sale was OK because maybe he just needed a new place. 

Welcome to Talk Sox!

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's been a brutal combo of Henry not approving very many big moves, and his CBOs whiffing hard on their limited chances.

But he's the one ultimately responsible for all of it.

When you have big expectations and reduced resources it's easy to see the desperate moves that have been made.  For example, Bloom probably put all his hope into a scouting report or two he got from our internal guys telling us everyone else was wrong on Yoshida and he held tremendous value.

 

Knowing he could sign a $30 million dollar pitcher, he got desperate and signed Kluber to one year hoping he could pitch like an ACE again for one more year. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

11 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Knowing he could sign a $30 million dollar pitcher, he got desperate and signed Kluber to one year hoping he could pitch like an ACE again for one more year. 

"One more year!"

Let's slap together new rosters of has-beens and never-weres every winter, and just... get through... one more year...

Again -- and aga -- and zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz............

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, jdc69 said:

Hello, I am new. I couldn't reply to anyone's comment so I will say that I was somewhat satisfied with the lack of movement at the trade deadline, though thought they would've done better. I don't know why John Henry got rid of Mookie or Jon Lester before him, for that matter but think he came up with a good nucleus of a team, sans pitching, which needs help. I thought getting rid of Sale was OK because maybe he just needed a new place. 

Not being able to re-sign Mookie was a big turning point to me and my Red Sox fandom. 

They definitely lowballed Lester, but I felt like they should have signed Max they offseason Lester was a FA anyway. Instead, they waited a year and signed Price. 

I agree that Sale needed a new place. There's no guarantee that Sale would have been as effective in BOS and they wouldn't have given him an extra day of rest in 2024 the way ATL did. 

[mvp 78]

34 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's been a brutal combo of Henry not approving very many big moves, and his CBOs whiffing hard on their limited chances.

But he's the one ultimately responsible for all of it.

If you're signing half measures, expect half successes. 

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

"One more year!"

Let's slap together new rosters of has-beens and never-weres every winter, and just... get through... one more year...

Again -- and aga -- and zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz............

Henry wants fans to get back some of that "wait til next year" nostalgia. 

[Bellhorn04]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If you're signing half measures, expect half successes. 

Yep.  Mike Ehrmantraut was not wrong.

[Bellhorn04]

25 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I agree that Sale needed a new place. There's no guarantee that Sale would have been as effective in BOS and they wouldn't have given him an extra day of rest in 2024 the way ATL did. 

There's no guarantee that he wouldn't have been, either.

[Hugh2]

34 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

"One more year!"

Let's slap together new rosters of has-beens and never-weres every winter, and just... get through... one more year...

Again -- and aga -- and zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz............

In a vacuum, these things work.  Guys who fit the Kluber profile come back and pitch like an ACE, guys who fit the Story profile stay healthy and continue playing full time and well into their 30's, teams hit on guys like Yoshida everyone else was wrong about, etc etc etc. (we can insert many names here) but these things end horribly as well. 

Good teams, even the Yankees and Dodgers make moves like this as well, despite what the nay-sayers on this board say about every little thing. 

The difference is, this is ALL we've done the past 5 years in lieu of taking any real risk on premium players. 

[Hugh2]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's no guarantee that he wouldn't have been, either.

Was playing in Boston hurting Sale? because he was always pretty good to lights out here when healthy.  He just could stay healthy. 

Was it the air? was in the dirty water?

I think we are just insanely unlucky.....we didn't deserve that, but John Henry did. 

[Bellhorn04]

18 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Was playing in Boston hurting Sale? because he was always pretty good to lights out here when healthy.  He just could stay healthy. 

Was it the air? was in the dirty water?

I think we are just insanely unlucky.....we didn't deserve that, but John Henry did. 

No, we're not insanely unlucky IMHO - although Henry would probably like us to think that.

As someone put it, the Dodgers have an entire pitching staff on the IL.

But they've somehow managed to succeed anyway.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

21 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Good teams, even the Yankees and Dodgers make moves like this as well, despite what the nay-sayers on this board say about every little thing. 

The difference is, this is ALL we've done the past 5 years in lieu of taking any real risk on premium players. 

Spot on. Big market teams have the resources to always cut their losses and never stop upgrading.

The Dodgers are thriving in the World Series without one pitch from their two leaders at the top of the rotation in victories and games started, and without their closer with the most saves. 

LA's staff is leaning on two guys coming off injuries, another picked up at the trade deadline, and a deep pen... but they're all at least decent or better. 

They make their own luck.

[Bellhorn04]

8 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Spot on. Big market teams have the resources to always cut their losses and never stop upgrading.

The Dodgers are thriving in the World Series without one pitch from their two leaders at the top of the rotation in victories and games started, and without their closer with the most saves. 

LA's staff is leaning on two guys coming off injuries, another picked up at the trade deadline, and a deep pen... but they're all at least decent or better. 

They make their own luck.

Jinx! 

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No, we're not insanely unlucky IMHO - although Henry would probably like us to think that.

As someone put it, the Dodgers have an entire pitching staff on the IL.

But they've somehow managed to succeed anyway.

Somehow? 

Freeman, Teoscar, Mookie, Ohtani, Edman, Will Smith, Muncy

Flaherty, Buehler, Yamamoto

[Bellhorn04]

44 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Somehow? 

Freeman, Teoscar, Mookie, Ohtani, Edman, Will Smith, Muncy

Flaherty, Buehler, Yamamoto

Oh I know.  It's almost like they are REALLY committed and pretty darn good at what they're doing!

Whereas with Henry and Co. it's like "Woe is us, look at these bad contracts and injuries, how does anyone expect little old us to compete?" 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Jinx! 

I never used the W or L words. But we have to admire LA's resiliency, especially with the obvious Manfred mandates to umpires to do everything they can to give viewers a long look at this big market match-up...

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

I never used the W or L words. But we have to admire LA's resiliency, especially with the obvious Manfred mandates to umpires to do everything they can to give viewers a long look at this big market match-up...

Sorry, I was using jinx in this capacity because of our similar posts:

A jinx can be initiated when at least two people say any same word or phrase at the same time. Typically, after the coincidental voicing of the same content, the individuals compete to say the word "jinx" before the other, with the slower respondent being the "loser" or "jinxee."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

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