Rumor: Red Sox Likely To Be Active On Trade Market This Offseason

[Brock Beauchamp]

Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow met with journalists (including The Boston Globe's Alex Speier) in Toronto and mentioned some goals for the Red Sox this winter.

The key takeaways were an interest in bringing back outfielder Tyler O'Neill for 2025 and beyond. O'Neill, a bounceback candidate coming out of St Louis, bounced back in the biggest way possible this season. He smacked 31 home runs and posted a 131 OPS+. The righty should be in demand this offseason.

Additionally, Breslow had this to say about the offseason:

Quote

“I think it’s likely some of that comes via trade, because there’s only so many middle infielders and lefthanded hitting outfielders we can play at any given time.”

This is an interesting statement in that it's rare to see baseball executives openly suggest they're going to trade away players before the season has even ended. It makes a lot of sense given Boston's left-handedness and trading from positions to strength to fill team weaknesses. But who do you think might be dangled as trade bait this winter?

View full rumor

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, that is a refreshingly clear statement by Brez.

[moonslav59]

Right in line with my repeated "Trade Abreu & DHam" suggestion.

Both are LHBs. Both are in bottle-necked positions.

I think we can fill a couple pen slots or get one really good set-up man for the package.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Yes, that is a refreshingly clear statement by Brez.

Kennedy will clarify with some follow up commentary that re-muddles it back into our comfort zone…

[mvp 78]

I mean, we've heard a lot of talk before. I'm not going to pretend like all of our fantasy booking will amount to much this offseason. 

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow met with journalists (including The Boston Globe's Alex Speier) in Toronto and mentioned some goals for the Red Sox this winter.

The key takeaways were an interest in bringing back outfielder Tyler O'Neill for 2025 and beyond. O'Neill, a bounceback candidate coming out of St Louis, bounced back in the biggest way possible this season. He smacked 31 home runs and posted a 131 OPS+. The righty should be in demand this offseason.

Additionally, Breslow had this to say about the offseason:

This is an interesting statement in that it's rare to see baseball executives openly suggest they're going to trade away players before the season has even ended. It makes a lot of sense given Boston's left-handedness and trading from positions to strength to fill team weaknesses. But who do you think might be dangled as trade bait this winter?

 

View full rumor

 

Much ado about nothing (or very little).  I therefore love moonslav's comment that maybe Breslow will trade Abreu and Hamilton for a couple of nondescript, adequate, maybe even decent bullpen arms.  Big freaking deal.  

In calculating what needs fixing on the Sox I like to look at their rankings in team runs scored and team ERA--that is, hitting and pitching, the two essentials of a MLB team.  

The 2024 Sox are ranked 9th in MLB in runs scored and need to be 5th or better to be competitive. Therefore the Sox hitting needs fixing as much as the Sox pitching and bringing back O'Neill won't be nearly enough to fix the Sox hitting.  In fact, how many times have we all pointed out that his 31 dingers--most on the Sox--have resulted in just 61 rbi's, 4th most on the Sox?   

As for the Sox pitching, it's ranked 17th in MLB in team ERA.  That's actually not terrible.  Bailey has made a freaking difference. 

The monster 2018 Sox were 8th in team ERA, the 2019 also-ran Sox were 19th, the 2021 postseason (where they made it to the ALCS and were therefore better than the 2016 and 2017 Sox everyone stupidly claims were great Sox teams) Sox were 15th in team ERA,   Last year's (2023) were 21st, and 2022's Sox were 25th in team ERA.  So to me Sox team ERA only needs to be 10th to 15th to be competitive.  

Right now the Sox four best pitching WAR's belong to four starters:  Houck 3.7, Crawford 2.5, Pivetta 1.8, and Bello 1.7.  Their four ERA's are 3.12, 4.17, 4.21, and 4.49.  And their ages are 28, 28, 31, and 25.  Oh, and their IP (innings pitched) are 179, 179, 162, and 139.  So, if we throw in THE GREAT GIOLITO, he of the $19M salary this year for doing absolutely nothing, the Sox already have (if they re-sign Pivetta\) a semi-decent rotation for 2025.   

Were I John Henry, I would make sure Breslow knows he ain't selling and/or trading the farm for still another expensive starter headed for  TJ surgery (or the newer version Giolito and Whitlock underwent this year).   Instead, I would tell him he could invest--via trade or money or both--in the bullpen.   Moonslav is right.

As for righty bats, O'Neill ain't enough.  Plus two of the Sox biggest salaries--Devers and Yoshida--are already committed to lefty bats.  I think there is some hope a healthy Story will hit next year.  Meanwhile, headed for the Sox next season or the one after are lefty bats Mayer, Anthony, and Teel.  Campbell bats righty, so maybe he will get priority.  

So, me, I'd be tempted to try to dump Yoshida by paying most of his remaining salary.  And I would give serious consideration to trading away one or more of Mayer, Anthony, and Teel to get righty bats and/or pitching help.  

 

 

[dgalehouse]

If you want right hand power, Vlad Jr.  could be available for the right package. 

[vegasbob]

When a Red Sox exec tells you that they may have interest in a player , it's like me saying I am interested in a Ferrari if the deal on the Lambo doesn't work.    Be prepared for smoke to emanate through your GI system .

I do wonder if O'neill's odd ratio of HR's to relatively low RBI's is simply a statistical fluke,  guys in front of him not reaching base often enough or  adjustments he makes , physically or mentally, when RISP opportunities are in front of him.

Here's O'Neill's problem , only 98 hits and 18 doubles in 461 PA's.. The HR's highly inflate his OPS to the .840's  without generating a lot of runs besides his own.

Vald G , Jr. is only viable if they do dump Yoshida and his contract baggage.  Possible but not real likely

[Randy Red Sox]

10 hours ago, vegasbob said:

When a Red Sox exec tells you that they may have interest in a player , it's like me saying I am interested in a Ferrari if the deal on the Lambo doesn't work.    Be prepared for smoke to emanate through your GI system .

I do wonder if O'neill's odd ratio of HR's to relatively low RBI's is simply a statistical fluke,  guys in front of him not reaching base often enough or  adjustments he makes , physically or mentally, when RISP opportunities are in front of him.

Here's O'Neill's problem , only 98 hits and 18 doubles in 461 PA's.. The HR's highly inflate his OPS to the .840's  without generating a lot of runs besides his own.

Vald G , Jr. is only viable if they do dump Yoshida and his contract baggage.  Possible but not real likely

O'neill did hit 31 HR's but also has 155 k's and is on an 0/24 streak to end the season.  You want to sign him to a 3-4 yr deal?

[Hugh2]

If the Sox did absolutely nothing other get 1 elite starting pitcher and 1 elite relief pitcher.   I'd be super super excited for next season. 

[Bellhorn04]

17 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

If the Sox did absolutely nothing other get 1 elite starting pitcher and 1 elite relief pitcher.   I'd be super super excited for next season. 

That's really *all* they need to do to at least get the hope train rolling again for fans like us. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's really *all* they need to do to at least get the hope train rolling again for fans like us. 

Does letting Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and O'Neill walk -- and signing Burnes and Tanner Scott -- leapfrog the Sox over .500? 

Throw me up!

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, dgalehouse said:

If you want right hand power, Vlad Jr.  could be available for the right package. 

He's had two great year and a few mediocre ones. I don't think I'd be all in on trading for him. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Does letting Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and O'Neill walk -- and signing Burnes and Tanner Scott -- leapfrog the Sox over .500? 

Throw me up!

Martin wants to come back, so there's a good chance he comes back on a cheaper deal. I think they can release the others and sign Burnes/Scott or similar and be better. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

That's really *all* they need to do to at least get the hope train rolling again for fans like us. 

They are shedding some payroll in Sale, Jansen, Martin, and Pivetta, but those will also have to be replaced except for Sale. What the plan for Whit will be will will dictate if more help for the BP, or rotation is needed.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Does letting Pivetta, Jansen, Martin and O'Neill walk -- and signing Burnes and Tanner Scott -- leapfrog the Sox over .500? 

Throw me up!

I hear that.  I'm assuming that if they fulfill Hugh's wishes it means they really are serious and Brezzy will look after the other deficiencies as well. 

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

He's had two great year and a few mediocre ones. I don't think I'd be all in on trading for him. 

It’s not the trade, but the cost to resign him would be the big stumbling block.

[mvp 78]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

It’s not the trade, but the cost to resign him would be the big stumbling block.

Jays want a package that is similar to the Juan Soto package. I'm out on that. Soto and Vlad Jr are not comparable IMO. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Jays want a package that is similar to the Juan Soto package. I'm out on that. Soto and Vlad Jr are not comparable IMO. 

Plus, Youk hates Vlad for mailing it in with the Jays coming in last place and not taking pride in his D at first base the last week of the season.

[mvp 78]

Just now, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Plus, Youk hates Vlad for mailing it in with the Jays coming in last place and not taking pride in his D at first base the last week of the season.

Sox would just use him at DH most likely, but yeah I don't trust him to be consistently driven to perform. He hasn't done it year in and year out. Those Jays players are relying a bit on their dads' accomplishments and are kind of overrated IMO. 

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox would just use him at DH most likely, but yeah I don't trust him to be consistently driven to perform. He hasn't done it year in and year out. Those Jays players are relying a bit on their dads' accomplishments and are kind of overrated IMO. 

If there was this unlikely trade to happen Casas could be part of the trade, and 1B would be open. You may be right about not trusting Vlad to be consistently driven to perform, but Raffy may be in that category too.

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

If there was this unlikely trade to happen Casas could be part of the trade, and 1B would be open. You may be right about not trusting Vlad to be consistently driven to perform, but Raffy may be in that category too.

Multiple years of Casas for one year of Vlad? I wouldn't do that deal. TOR would have to add players to make it worth my while. 

[Bellhorn04]

30 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Sox would just use him at DH most likely, but yeah I don't trust him to be consistently driven to perform. He hasn't done it year in and year out. Those Jays players are relying a bit on their dads' accomplishments and are kind of overrated IMO. 

OTOH if Vlad has a manager he really likes he might really kill it.

Vlad is an elite talent.  I don't see him ever being in a Red Sox uniform, though.  The cost will be prohibitive.

 

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OTOH if Vlad has a manager he really likes he might really kill it.

Vlad is an elite talent.  I don't see him ever being in a Red Sox uniform, though.  The cost will be prohibitive.

 

Jays would have to come down from their ask or the Sox will need to hope he makes it to FA. I do like his whiff and k rates!

[Bellhorn04]

13 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Jays would have to come down from their ask or the Sox will need to hope he makes it to FA. I do like his whiff and k rates!

And I've always had a soft spot for guys who mash against the Yankees - career OPS of .904.

And 1.022 against the Orioles!  And .876 against the Rays.

 

[Bellhorn04]

It's not going to happen, but if Brez did somehow swing a deal for Vlad, it wouldn't be unexciting.

[notin]

19 hours ago, vegasbob said:

When a Red Sox exec tells you that they may have interest in a player , it's like me saying I am interested in a Ferrari if the deal on the Lambo doesn't work.    Be prepared for smoke to emanate through your GI system .

I do wonder if O'neill's odd ratio of HR's to relatively low RBI's is simply a statistical fluke,  guys in front of him not reaching base often enough or  adjustments he makes , physically or mentally, when RISP opportunities are in front of him.

Here's O'Neill's problem , only 98 hits and 18 doubles in 461 PA's.. The HR's highly inflate his OPS to the .840's  without generating a lot of runs besides his own.

Vald G , Jr. is only viable if they do dump Yoshida and his contract baggage.  Possible but not real likely

O’Neill did hit 78 HRs resulting 217 RBIs with St. Louis, so it’s most likely just a statistical anomaly.

His issue with the Cardinals was only playing 477 games in 6 seasons, meaning he missed roughly 50% of his games…

 

 

[mvp 78]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not going to happen, but if Brez did somehow swing a deal for Vlad, it wouldn't be unexciting.

Abreu, Arias and Bleis? That's a guy who put up 3.4 bWAR plus two top 10 prospects (albeit far away ones). 

Sox would have to deal Masa separately and eat a good portion of it, but that's fine with me. Sometimes, a sunk cost is a sunk cost. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not going to happen, but if Brez did somehow swing a deal for Vlad, it wouldn't be unexciting.

Change of scenery for an MVP, still only 25, playing for Cora, pairing with Raffy on a left-right heart-of-the-order, taking opposing pitchers' focus away from younger but talented teammates...

Could anyone imagine such a scenario propelling a club closer to the postseason? A pair who could form a Manny-Papi challenge to Judge-Soto? Two guys in the same line-up who both destroy Yankee pitching?

How can Brez not go for this? oh, yeah, because of an owner no longer invested...

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

It's not going to happen, but if Brez did somehow swing a deal for Vlad, it wouldn't be unexciting.

Are the Jays even trying to move him?  They might be more eager to move Bo Bichette…