The American League Wild Card Race

[moonslav59]

The Sox have their backs against the wall, and now have two teams to pass. I'm not going into Seattle's chances, although they may be tied with us, after tonight's game.

Here are the current standings (not counting SEA's game.)

83-64 BAL (-1.5 from NYY)

80-66 KCR (-2.0 from BAL and +6.0 on BOS)

78-68 MIN (+3 on DET and +4 on BOS)

75-71 DET (-3.0 MIN and +1.0 BOS)

74-72 BOS (-4.0 MIN and -1.0 DET)

Games remaining by series, starting this weekend:

BOS @ NYY 4, MIN v CIN 3, DET v COL1 & BAL 3, KCR at PIT

BOS @ TBR 3, MIN @ CLE 4, DET @ KCR 3

BOS v MIN 3, DET at BAL 3, KCR v SFG 3

BOS @ TOR 3, MIN v MIA 3, DET v TBR, KCR at WSH 3

BOS v TBR 3, MIN v BAL 3, DET v CWS, KCR at ATL 3

16 games to go. I'm thinking 10-6 minimum, if we sweep MIN or 11-5, if we take 2 of 3 v MIN. It might take 12-4, something we have not done, this year, but we have just gone 4-2, so maybe the tide is turning.

GO SOX!

 

[Randy Red Sox]

27 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

The Sox have their backs against the wall, and now have two teams to pass. I'm not going into Seattle's chances, although they may be tied with us, after tonight's game.

Here are the current standings (not counting SEA's game.)

83-64 BAL (-1.5 from NYY)

80-66 KCR (-2.0 from BAL and +6.0 on BOS)

78-68 MIN (+3 on DET and +4 on BOS)

75-71 DET (-3.0 MIN and +1.0 BOS)

74-72 BOS (-4.0 MIN and -1.0 DET)

Games remaining by series, starting this weekend:

BOS @ NYY 4, MIN v CIN 3, DET v COL1 & BAL 3, KCR at PIT

BOS @ TBR 3, MIN @ CLE 4, DET @ KCR 3

BOS v MIN 3, DET at BAL 3, KCR v SFG 3

BOS @ TOR 3, MIN v MIA 3, DET v TBR, KCR at WSH 3

BOS v TBR 3, MIN v BAL 3, DET v CWS, KCR at ATL 3

16 games to go. I'm thinking 10-6 minimum, if we sweep MIN or 11-5, if we take 2 of 3 v MIN. It might take 12-4, something we have not done, this year, but we have just gone 4-2, so maybe the tide is turning.

GO SOX!

 

i hope Red Sox fans are enjoying this W/C race chase. Once again it looks like we will be coming up short and now stand to lose our impending FA's for uninspiring draft pick compensation. I guess this is what Breslow meant when he said he would be taking a clear direction at the deadline. Enjoy the comp draft picks everyone.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Randy Red Sox said:

i hope Red Sox fans are enjoying this W/C race chase. Once again it looks like we will be coming up short and now stand to lose our impending FA's for uninspiring draft pick compensation. I guess this is what Breslow meant when he said he would be taking a clear direction at the deadline. Enjoy the comp draft picks everyone.

What player will we offer a QO to? Jansen?

It won't be Martin, O'Neill or Pivetta.

[Bellhorn04]

Looks pretty hopeless.  7 games in NY and TB before we get to play Minny.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with the team's competitive fire, as they showed again last night.

Not their fault they got shafted by ownership's tightfistedness and some really bad/unlucky moves by Breslow.

I'm still hoping for the team every game, but if we miss the playoffs we know where the blame lies.

 

[Hugh2]

Yeah, there's not going to be any comp picks.  Comp picks are given to teams who extend a qualifying offer to a player, said player turns it down, AND signs with another team. 

A Q.O. will be apx $20 million dollars. 

I'm not sure there's anyone on this team they offer that too.

Maybe Piveta, not because you want to pay him $20 a year, but if you did want to sign him to 3-4 years and you wanted to kill his market then maybe..maybe??? 

If a QO scares off other teams, I can see him getting a 4/50.  $12.5 million a year is a good deal for even a back of the rotation starter.  I'm also not 100% unconvinced he can't be dominate in a bullpen role in a few years and those guys get $20+ in FA in todays game. 

[Bellhorn04]

Well, this thread stayed on topic for 1.5 posts. 😁

[moonslav59]

22 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Looks pretty hopeless.  7 games in NY and TB before we get to play Minny.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with the team's competitive fire, as they showed again last night.

Not their fault they got shafted by ownership's tightfistedness and some really bad/unlucky moves by Breslow.

I'm still hoping for the team every game, but if we miss the playoffs we know where the blame lies.

 

We have done better on the road, so maybe that helps. I do admit, it's hard to see us going 5-2 on this trip. 4-3 might be asking too much.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have done better on the road, so maybe that helps. I do admit, it's hard to see us going 5-2 on this trip. 4-3 might be asking too much.

Every one of our games is a coin flip.  If we were better than a .500 team, we would have shown it long before this.  

[Hugh2]

5 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

We have done better on the road, so maybe that helps. I do admit, it's hard to see us going 5-2 on this trip. 4-3 might be asking too much.

If you told me at any point in the season we'd go 4-3 against a tough stretch I'd be more than thrilled. 

Take 4 out of 7 all year long and you win 92-93 games and you're in the playoffs. 

The problem is the Sox have run out of time.  They have to be better than a playoff team right now, they have to get scortching hot. 

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Looks pretty hopeless.  7 games in NY and TB before we get to play Minny.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with the team's competitive fire, as they showed again last night.

Not their fault they got shafted by ownership's tightfistedness and some really bad/unlucky moves by Breslow.

I'm still hoping for the team every game, but if we miss the playoffs we know where the blame lies.

 

It's hopeless, but at least they are still playing meaningful games in mid September!

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

It's hopeless, but at least they are still playing meaningful games in mid September!

Just the way Manfred likes it.  And it puts a few more dollars in Henry's pocket.  

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Just the way Manfred likes it.  And it puts a few more dollars in Henry's pocket.  

Maybe? I think the tickets were probably already sold. I don't think he's in line to earn additional money because of it. Maybe he gets a cut from Aramark sales, but I don't know how substantial it is. 

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Maybe? I think the tickets were probably already sold. I don't think he's in line to earn additional money because of it. Maybe he gets a cut from Aramark sales, but I don't know how substantial it is. 

An analysis of ticket sales might be interesting. 

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Hugh2 said:

If you told me at any point in the season we'd go 4-3 against a tough stretch I'd be more than thrilled. 

Take 4 out of 7 all year long and you win 92-93 games and you're in the playoffs. 

The problem is the Sox have run out of time.  They have to be better than a playoff team right now, they have to get scortching hot. 

4-3 and a sweep of MIN, while not likely, is not impossible.

I doubt it happens, but I'm not giving up, yet. Close, but not yet. (It's not like the Yanks are playing real well, too.)

22-28 NYY since June 19th

16-22 TBR since July 31st.

19-22 MIN since July 29th, including 4 of last 5, 6 of last 8.

4-9 TOR since Aug 27th and 18-20 since July 30th.

Granted, we have sucked since the ASB, but we are playing teams that are not doing well. That keeps a sliver of hope alive.

[dgalehouse]

 Unusual situation last night. There were Sox fans rooting for the Yankees to win their game, while Yankee fans were rooting for the Sox to win their game. You don't see that too often. Tonight, it's back to the rivalry.   

[Old Red]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

4-3 and a sweep of MIN, while not likely, is not impossible.

I doubt it happens, but I'm not giving up, yet. Close, but not yet. (It's not like the Yanks are playing real well, too.)

22-28 NYY since June 19th

16-22 TBR since July 31st.

19-22 MIN since July 29th, including 4 of last 5, 6 of last 8.

4-9 TOR since Aug 27th and 18-20 since July 30th.

Granted, we have sucked since the ASB, but we are playing teams that are not doing well. That keeps a sliver of hope alive.

As one writer of the Globe said that the Red Sox are fantasy contenders in fantasy contention.

[vegasbob]

9 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Every one of our games is a coin flip.  If we were better than a .500 team, we would have shown it long before this.  

I fully agree. There have been several opportunities since the A-S break to get a run going and move into, not trailing the WC race, but the team never really put that together. 

The mutual hitting slump as the starting pitching came back around  is a backbreaker . 

The bullpen has coughed up a lead after the  6th inning 19 times so far since the A-S break.  Terrible record.   

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/12/2024 at 7:48 AM, Bellhorn04 said:

Looks pretty hopeless.  7 games in NY and TB before we get to play Minny.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with the team's competitive fire, as they showed again last night.

Not their fault they got shafted by ownership's tightfistedness and some really bad/unlucky moves by Breslow.

I'm still hoping for the team every game, but if we miss the playoffs we know where the blame lies.

 

An excellent, balanced post. 

[moonslav59]

Last season, we were 73-72 before splitting a doubleheader with the Yanks on Sept 14th. (74-73)

We ended the season going 4-11.

In 2022, we won 6 of our last 9, but were out of it by then at 72-81 after 153 games. (We lost 6 in a row, just before that stretch.) We went 9-12 after Sept 13th.

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Last season, we were 73-72 before splitting a doubleheader with the Yanks on Sept 14th. (74-73)

We ended the season going 4-11.

In 2022, we won 6 of our last 9, but were out of it by then at 72-81 after 153 games. (We lost 6 in a row, just before that stretch.) We went 9-12 after Sept 13th.

Toronto, and Tampa are weaker this year then they have been the last 2-3 years, and this isn’t one of the better Yankees team either especially outside of Soto, and Judge, and for the most part I think the whole league is weaker, so having the same record at this point in the season doesn’t mean the Red Sox are as good as the last two years, and maybe even worse.

[moonslav59]

Here are some big differences between 2024 and 2023:

Pitching and D:

2024: 4.13 ERA (105 ERA+) but 90 unearned runs allowed (99 per 162) 105 errors counted

2023: 4.52 ERA (100 ERA+) but only 58 unearned runs allowed in 15 more games. (102 erros counted)

_________________________________________

Timely Hitting: OPS RISP/ Men on Base/RBI RISP

2024: .755/ 475  in 1493 PAs (would be 528 over 1661 PAs)

2023: .767/ 553 in 1661 PAs

________________________________________

Together, these add up to 41 more unearned runs allowed and 23 less runs batted it, for a total of 64 runs.

 

[Bellhorn04]

16 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Here are some big differences between 2024 and 2023:

Pitching and D:

2024: 4.13 ERA (105 ERA+) but 90 unearned runs allowed (99 per 162) 105 errors counted

2023: 4.52 ERA (100 ERA+) but only 58 unearned runs allowed in 15 more games. (102 erros counted)

_________________________________________

Timely Hitting: OPS RISP/ Men on Base/RBI RISP

2024: .755/ 475  in 1493 PAs (would be 528 over 1661 PAs)

2023: .767/ 553 in 1661 PAs

________________________________________

Together, these add up to 41 more unearned runs allowed and 23 less runs batted it, for a total of 64 runs.

 

It's stunning that as bad and as costly as we and Tom Werner thought the defense was in 2023, it got even worse in 2024.   

3 more errors but 32 more unearned runs.  So I guess it's either:

-Bad luck/randomness

or

-Pitchers melting down even worse than last year after errors

 

[illinoisredsox]

Biggest difference in the Wild Card Race is the White Sox factor. The Twins, Tigers and Royals got to play the White Sox 13 times each.  And boy, did they take advantage of it.  They are a combined 33-3 against the Pale Hose (Tigers still have 3 games left). 

Even if the Red Sox had gone 7-0 against  Chicago, they’d still be behind, albeit it closer.

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/11/2024 at 8:21 PM, moonslav59 said:

What player will we offer a QO to? Jansen?

It won't be Martin, O'Neill or Pivetta.

 

On 9/11/2024 at 8:21 PM, moonslav59 said:

What player will we offer a QO to? Jansen?

It won't be Martin, O'Neill or Pivetta.

i forgot that we don't get comp picks for guys we don't qualify which makes this even worse. Surely a team like Seattle could have used O'Neill to boost their struggling offence. I agree that if it is 20 million to qualify any of these guys it is an easy pass and we get nothing.  Brutal management AGAIN.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 9/12/2024 at 6:31 AM, moonslav59 said:

4-3 and a sweep of MIN, while not likely, is not impossible.

I doubt it happens, but I'm not giving up, yet. Close, but not yet. (It's not like the Yanks are playing real well, too.)

22-28 NYY since June 19th

16-22 TBR since July 31st.

19-22 MIN since July 29th, including 4 of last 5, 6 of last 8.

4-9 TOR since Aug 27th and 18-20 since July 30th.

Granted, we have sucked since the ASB, but we are playing teams that are not doing well. That keeps a sliver of hope alive.

right now we will be lucky to hold off TB for 3rd place.  Your 4-3 record on this trip is not looking good right now.

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

right now we will be lucky to hold off TB for 3rd place.  Your 4-3 record on this trip is not looking good right now.

It wasn't a prediction, but yes, 4-3 looks nearly impossible, now.

Last night's game was brutal, because things looked pretty good, even knowing the state of our pen.

It is what it is, and it ain't pretty.

[dgalehouse]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

It wasn't a prediction, but yes, 4-3 looks nearly impossible, now.

Last night's game was brutal, because things looked pretty good, even knowing the state of our pen.

It is what it is, and it ain't pretty.

Winning the next two games is nearly impossible? I think you are getting a little carried away.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, dgalehouse said:

Winning the next two games is nearly impossible? I think you are getting a little carried away.

No, that is not near impossible. The point was to go 4-3 then sweep MIN. That looks much harder to do, now. Not impossible, but maybe near impossible. The equation has changed in at least 2 ways:

1. We now need to go 4-1 in the nest 5 games, then 3-0 v MIN.

2. Our team looks worse after these last 2 losses than it did 3 days ago, when we were 4-2 in 6 recent games.

I'd say 7-1 is near impossible, where as 7-4 was not so impossible.

[Maxbialystock]

On 9/13/2024 at 4:57 PM, Old Red said:

Toronto, and Tampa are weaker this year then they have been the last 2-3 years, and this isn’t one of the better Yankees team either especially outside of Soto, and Judge, and for the most part I think the whole league is weaker, so having the same record at this point in the season doesn’t mean the Red Sox are as good as the last two years, and maybe even worse.

Good points.  However,--

1.  The 2021 Sox won 92 games in the regular season and beat the Yankees and Rays (100 wins) to get to the ALCS, so of course they were better than this year's version.  In fact, it pisses me off that almost everyone on talksox forgets how successful the 2021 Sox were.  In my opinion, they were way better than the 2016 and 2017 Sox, both of whom got their clocks cleaned in the ALDS.   You guys keep screaming, "they won the AL East!  They won the AL East!"  But you forget that both years they only won 93 games in the regular season.  The 2021 Sox won just 1 fewer games, 92, and then they blew away the Yankees in the wild card and the Rays in the ALDS.  

2. Despite the Rays and Jays, the AL East still has the best won-lost record in MLB.  

3. The Sox should be worse than the last two years because the payroll is smaller and because they have a complete idiot of a CBO who dumped Sale, currently competing for the NL Cy Young for the Braves while being paid $17M by the Sox, and picked up Giolito, who's getting paid $19M to do nothing.  Plus Story missed 5 months thanks to the injury in April.  Plus Casas missed about 100 games because he recklessly swung a bat a pitch.  How dumb can you be?  As a result, as I keep reminding everyone, the Sox have had pretty much a no-name roster--with Devers and Jansen being the exceptions.  

4. However, the no-names have done better than expected.  Duran was a freaking All-Star and his WAR is 8.7.  Despite shoulder issues, Devers WAR is 3.9 and was higher, Abreu's WAR is 3.0, Rafaela's 2.7, Hamilton's 2.7, Wong's 1.6, Gonzalez 1.6, O'Neill 2.9, etc.  Plus the rotation, despite the Gioliito for Sale fiasco, is almost decent with Houck (WAR 3.2), Crawford 2.4, Bello 1.2, and Pivetta (1.6).  The bullpen stinks, of course--mostly because Breslow did almost nothing last winter or in July--and the infield defense has been lousy (Sox lead MLB in errors and unearned runs).   Nevertheless, the Sox rankings in team ERA and runs scored are both higher than both the 2023 and 2024 Sox.  

5. Plus today is September freaking 14th, and the Sox just took 2/3 from the Orioles, lost two very close (and winnable) games in Yankee Stadium, and today took the 3d, 7-1.   Half the talksox board or more wanted Yoshida DFA'd, Devers put on the IL, Story not brought back in September, etc.  But all three are making a difference despite their imperfections--and you better believe the rest of the lineup and the rotation are also making a difference.  Even the low-down, no-good, rotten, stinking bullpen has had it's moments--like, for example, today and in game 1 Thursday.  Plus games 1 and 3 vs the Orioles.  

6.  This season ain't over no matter how many times Fred Lynn says it is.   These no-names (I should have included Story and Yoshida as non-no-names) are not quitters, nor are the non-no-names (Jansen, Devers, Story, Yoshida, and maybe O'Neill--and, OK, Duran too).  Tomorrow it's lefty Rodon vs toughie Crawford, and I freaking can't wait.  

[Randy Red Sox]

The Twins have been HORRIBLE the past 2-3 weeks and are trying hard to give the W/C away.  I could easily see the Sox sweeping them.