A Realistic View at 2024: Part III

[moonslav59]

58 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Paxton will tear something signing the contract and be out for the entire length of the contract. in all seriousness, i have no doubt they're interested in bringing him back just because he'd be cheap. but, by gawd, we gotta get rid of Chris Sale. f*** JOhn Henry.

The funny thing is, he had just 1 less start that Sale, last season, and yet we were supposed to overlook that. Also: GS 2019-2023: Paxton 54/ Sale 56.

[dgalehouse]

Great pitching is tough to come by. I don't see a Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Tom Seaver, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens clone out there. A guy who will go deep in games and you feel pretty sure will get a W.  Do you really want to go all in for a simply good pitcher like Corbin Burnes ? 

[Duran Is The Man]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The funny thing is, he had just 1 less start that Sale, last season, and yet we were supposed to overlook that. Also: GS 2019-2023: Paxton 54/ Sale 56.

he had one less start but Henry let Sale go and then signed a guy even more fragile than Sale. LOLOLOLOL.

[moonslav59]

49 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

he had one less start but Henry let Sale go and then signed a guy even more fragile than Sale. LOLOLOLOL.

Gio is more fragile than Chris Frail???

[dgalehouse]

  Many pitchers seem to be fragile these days.  They are dropping like flies. 

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Gio is more fragile than Chris Frail???

Sale has pitched all year, and pitched well while Gio has been hurt, and hasn’t thrown a pitch, so at the moment yes Gio is more fragile than Chris Sale.

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, dgalehouse said:

  Many pitchers seem to be fragile these days.  They are dropping like flies. 

That's for sure.

[moonslav59]

Sox OPS Rankings (280+ PAs)

7. Devers .940

18. Duran .876

19. O'Neill .875

31. Abreu .833

34. Refsnyder .822

50. Yoshida .800

It's okay to count Abreu and Refsnyder as one, since they basically platoon, but this still looks pretty impressive.

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Sox OPS Rankings (280+ PAs)

7. Devers .940

18. Duran .876

19. O'Neill .875

31. Abreu .833

34. Refsnyder .822

50. Yoshida .800

It's okay to count Abreu and Refsnyder as one, since they basically platoon, but this still looks pretty impressive.

It looks good on paper, and at times watching it happen, but unfortunately at the moment it’s only lead to a three games over 500 record.

[moonslav59]

Top fWAR Leaders and notables (250+ PAs):

9.6 Judge

9.2 Witt

7.7 Soto

6.7 Gunnar

6.6 Lindor

6.4 Duran

6.2 Ohtani

12. Devers 4.4

16, Matt Chapman 4.0

26. Betts 3.6

58. Abreu & Schwarber 2.7 

90. O'Neill 2.1

122. Bogey 1.7

157. JD 1.2

160. Ref 1.1

175. Rafaela 1.0

185. Yoshida 0.9

Pitching (50+ IP)

5.4 Sale

4.8 Skubal

4.1 Webb, Sanchez & Ragans

13. Houck 3.5

87. Crawford 1.5

100. Pivetta 1.3

110. Criswell 1.2

120. Bello 1.1

[Larry Cook]

That betts contract is looking more and more ugly as each season passes 

[moonslav59]

Twinkies lost. Back down to 4 GB.

KC is looking for real.

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Larry Cook v2 said:

That betts contract is looking more and more ugly as each season passes 

He had his best season, with LAD just last year.

.854 '21 (4.0 bWAR)

.873 '22 (6.7 bWAR)

.987 '23 (8.3 bWAR- led league)

4.3 bWAR in '24, which is already better than 2021 with 160 less PAs.

I still wish he was with us, even at that hefty cost.

[Randy Red Sox]

On 7/30/2024 at 7:57 PM, moonslav59 said:

The post All Star Break Sox have not looked good, at all. The deadline came and went with nothing major happening, but some decent attempts at fixing the pitching staff with 3 rentals (Luis Garica, Lucas Sims and James Paxton) and a longer term try (Quinn Priester.) We also upgraded the catching depth with RHB Danny Jansen. We DFA'd McGuire, Chase Anderson and Brandon Walter. Yohan Ramirez was promoted and struggled in his first game.

 

I have to say the "realistic" view is not all that rosy, but other teams have some major issues, too. That might be our best hope. This team has fought back, several times, this year. The pitching has been in decline, while the offense has been improving. There is not much evidence the staff will turn it back around and do well, going forward. I'm not saying it can't happen, but there just hasn't been any signs of life.

 

Assuming Priester plays in AAA, to gain the 6th year of control, this will likely be the 26 (40):

 

SP: Houck, Pivetta, Paxton, Bello, Crawford (Priester, Keller AAA)

RP: Jansen, L Garcia, L Sims, Criswell, Kelly, Bernardino, Wink & Booser (Horn, Y Ramirez, Weissert in AAA)

C: Wong & Jansen (Heineman)

1B: S Smith (Casas at end of AUG?) (Dalbec)

2B: DHam & Romy (Grissom, Westbrook)

SS: Rafaela

3B: Devers

LF: O'Neill/Refsnyder

CF: Duran

RF: Abreu/O'Neill

DH: Yoshida (Valdez)

 

AA: Wikelman

15 Day IL: Martin & Slaten

60 Day IL: Giolito, Story, Whitlock, Murphy, Mata, Perales

Hendriks (end of AUG?)

 

The farm got a bit shallower, but we lost no top 10 prospects, except maybe Yorke.

 

We have our work cut out for us.

 

Link:

Part II: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20859-A-Realistic-View-of-2024-Part-II

 

 

both relievers we got at the deadline are now on the DL.  well done Bresslow

[Old Red]

6 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

both relievers we got at the deadline are now on the DL.  well done Bresslow

Breslow did what he said he would do, and picked a lane at trade deadline time. Unfortunately it was the break down lane. Add Paxton, and the car is full.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

He had his best season, with LAD just last year.

.854 '21 (4.0 bWAR)

.873 '22 (6.7 bWAR)

.987 '23 (8.3 bWAR- led league)

4.3 bWAR in '24, which is already better than 2021 with 160 less PAs.

I still wish he was with us, even at that hefty cost.

Well worth it IMO. If he's giving you 4+ bWAR, can field multiple positions, plus the star factor, he's worth the cost.

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Well worth it IMO. If he's giving you 4+ bWAR, can field multiple positions, plus the star factor, he's worth the cost.

Yes, and he's gotten better from 2021 to 2022 to 2023. There is no sign of decline, unless one thinks the injury is a sign of more to come.

[Bellhorn04]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook v2 said:

That betts contract is looking more and more ugly as each season passes 

Based on what?  He was second in MVP voting last year.  Whaddya want? 

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, and he's gotten better from 2021 to 2022 to 2023. There is no sign of decline, unless one thinks the injury is a sign of more to come.

Getting hit on the hand with the ball is not a sign of more injuries to come.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

20 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The funny thing is, he had just 1 less start that Sale, last season, and yet we were supposed to overlook that. Also: GS 2019-2023: Paxton 54/ Sale 56.

Sale is the better pitcher when healthy and appears to have more left in the tank at this point in their careers.

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

10 hours ago, Larry Cook v2 said:

That betts contract is looking more and more ugly as each season passes 

I hope that was a weak attempt at sarcasm.

[mvp 78]

Taylor Rogers was put on waivers by the Giants to save 12M. Any chance the Sox go for him? 

Good hard hit%, good LHP reliever. Maybe the only issue is cost? 

[mvp 78]

After being DFA'd, Joely has elected FA. I believe he did this before, tested FA and then signed with WOO? 

[mvp 78]

Maybe that was McGuire? 

[moonslav59]

36 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Taylor Rogers was put on waivers by the Giants to save 12M. Any chance the Sox go for him? 

Good hard hit%, good LHP reliever. Maybe the only issue is cost? 

You mean the savings of what is remaining on his $12M deal, so maybe $2.5M, max.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You mean the savings of what is remaining on his $12M deal, so maybe $2.5M, max.

Right.  Hopefully the Sox are looking at him.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

You mean the savings of what is remaining on his $12M deal, so maybe $2.5M, max.

No, approx 3M this year (whatever is remaining) and full 12M next year. 

[notin]

On 8/27/2024 at 5:43 PM, Old Red said:

Sale has pitched all year, and pitched well while Gio has been hurt, and hasn’t thrown a pitch, so at the moment yes Gio is more fragile than Chris Sale.

This one season might not be representative.  Do some math from 2020-2023 first and see if you draw the same conclusion.

[notin]

50 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Taylor Rogers was put on waivers by the Giants to save 12M. Any chance the Sox go for him? 

Good hard hit%, good LHP reliever. Maybe the only issue is cost? 

Sox should, but he also might not last until their claim.  Hopefully they do the smart thing here.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Sox should, but he also might not last until their claim.  Hopefully they do the smart thing here.

For sure. If I was relatively near .500 and had hopes for next year, I'd consider claiming him.