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Posted
What about hitting costs? does Henry refuses to part with money there too?

 

other than Devers he hasn't spent a ton there either. a little on Yoshida and a waste on Story after cheaping out on XB.

Posted
Well, it's health and maybe a better pitching coach?

 

And a better bullpen stranding any/most inherited runners he passes along?

 

Atlanta’s deeper pitching depth also gives him the occasional extra day, but his workload has long since past anything he did in the last few years in Boston..

Posted
And a better bullpen stranding any/most inherited runners he passes along?

 

If bWAR for pitchers is based on ERA, it should just be ignored.

Posted
other than Devers he hasn't spent a ton there either. a little on Yoshida and a waste on Story after cheaping out on XB.

 

If you add it up, they've spent about 2-3 million more on hitting than pitching. They spend, they just don't go after the top of the market, they'd rather pay 3 guys 13 million than sign a guy like Judge for 40 million.

 

Henry isn't cheap, his moves and philosophy of spreading the money instead of taking swings at big talent (like maybe keeping Betts) has backfired badly in his face.

 

We've been here before, back in 2015 the Sox let go of Lester, piece mailed together a rotation and the narrative was they would never set the market again, the days of long term contracts were dead. They proceeded to go out and sign middling contracts.

 

They finalized their rotation on the cheap by signing Justin Masterson, Signed Hanley Ramirez to an 4 year 88 million dollar contract, and Pablo Sandoval to a 5 year 90 million dollar contract.

 

Max Scherzer, Jon Lester, and James shields were the top of the market that year and the Sox didn't even sniff.

 

Thats what we all said back then "the sox would never spend big on pitching EVER again"

 

It's only right that it's ten years later. They could switch direction again....there's literally precedent for it and sitting 80 million under the cap and a position roster that's practically set theres literally nowhere else to park their money.

 

As I did ten years ago, I'm once again predicting they surprise everyone and go big this year.

 

To be fair, I thought they would do that last offseason too.

Posted
other than Devers he hasn't spent a ton there either. a little on Yoshida and a waste on Story after cheaping out on XB.

 

He often does not replace the big contracts we lose, so spending big might actually still be cutting from the previous year's payroll, but when you look at just the payroll with no context, there has not been a steady decline in spending. We saw a massive peak in spending in 2018 and 2019, and many ups and downs before and after.

 

We are looking at just 2 straight years of decline after a pretty big jump up in 2022, so I'm not seeing this idea that JH

 

RED= $5M+ drop

BLUE= $5M+ gain

Opening Day 26 Man Payroll

99.9 '03

127 '04

124 '05

120 '06 (down $7M over 2 seasons)

143 '07

133 '08

122 '09 (down $21M over 2 seasons

168 '10

163 '11

175 '12

155 '13

156 '14 (down $19M in 2 seasons)

184 '15

197 '16

234 '17 The unprecedented 3 straight years of big jumps

234 '18

236 '19

2020

180 '21 The unprecedented drop of $56M in 2 seasons

206 '22

181 '23

171 '24 Another major drop. $35M in 2 seasons being so close to the $56M drop from 2019 to 2021 certainly shows a break from the earlier pattern. However, there was a season of a jump in spending, not too long ago.

 

End of year 40 man

105 '03

130

117

137

155

147 '08

140

171

174

169

176 '13

168

186

201

189

231 '18

228

2020

187

217

203

 

Again, the gain years are by much more than the drop years, and the bigger drop years are recently, but 2022 was a decent gain year. One can see it as barely getting back near where were were after the big drops in 20202 and 2021. I get it.

 

Posted
other than Devers he hasn't spent a ton there either. a little on Yoshida and a waste on Story after cheaping out on XB.

 

JH spent $100M on Yoshida. The highest paid pitcher before $38.5/3 for Gio as for a closer, Jansen at $36M/2. Both combined plus Martin's $17.5M/2 comes close to Yoshi.

 

3 top pitching signings = Yoshida.

Posted
Danny Jansen will become the first player in the history of MLB to play for two teams in the same game, when we make up the suspended game vs TOR.
Posted
Danny Jansen will become the first player in the history of MLB to play for two teams in the same game, when we make up the suspended game vs TOR.

 

Despite the stars that need to align, I’m actually surprised this has never happened before…

Posted
If bWAR for pitchers is based on ERA, it should just be ignored.

 

ERA is affected by inherited runners the bullpen allows, right?

 

If Sale leaves with 2 men on base, the bullpen can let them score but Sale gets charged with the earned runs, which raises his ERA…

Posted
Danny Jansen will become the first player in the history of MLB to play for two teams in the same game, when we make up the suspended game vs TOR.

 

But only if he plays for Boston... The make-up is the day game Monday, followed by a regularly-scheduled nightcap.

 

Jansen could catch in place of the departed McGuire, or pinch-hit if Cora decides to catch Wong in the first game.

 

Jansen was batting for Toronto with an 0-1 count when the game was suspended. They should let him finish his at bat in a Blue Jays jersey, have him strike out intentionally, then pinch-hit in a Red Sox jersey later. Some traditionalists might prefer him to K for both sides; now that would be a record. But I'd give him the walk-off hit sign (it's point at the Monster).

Posted
ERA is affected by inherited runners the bullpen allows, right?

 

If Sale leaves with 2 men on base, the bullpen can let them score but Sale gets charged with the earned runs, which raises his ERA…

 

The simplest thing is to repeat what I said:

 

If bWAR for pitchers is based on ERA, it should just be ignored.

 

As we've discussed many times, ERA is heavily influenced by team factors-defense and bullpen.

 

So why are you using bWAR for pitchers?

Posted
ERA is affected by inherited runners the bullpen allows, right?

 

If Sale leaves with 2 men on base, the bullpen can let them score but Sale gets charged with the earned runs, which raises his ERA…

 

Yes, which he might or might not have allowed to score, himself.

 

I do think leaving with bases loaded and no outs is much different than the same with 2 outs.

 

ERA also does not factor in non error mistakes made by the D, mistakes made by the scorekeeper, park factors and strength of opponents.

 

It's not a bad stat, but many are better.

Posted
But only if he plays for Boston... The make-up is the day game Monday, followed by a regularly-scheduled nightcap.

 

Jansen could catch in place of the departed McGuire, or pinch-hit if Cora decides to catch Wong in the first game.

 

Jansen was batting for Toronto with an 0-1 count when the game was suspended. They should let him finish his at bat in a Blue Jays jersey, have him strike out intentionally, then pinch-hit in a Red Sox jersey later. Some traditionalists might prefer him to K for both sides; now that would be a record. But I'd give him the walk-off hit sign (it's point at the Monster).

 

I think I read that Cora is planning on playing him.

Posted
JH spent $100M on Yoshida. The highest paid pitcher before $38.5/3 for Gio as for a closer, Jansen at $36M/2. Both combined plus Martin's $17.5M/2 comes close to Yoshi.

 

3 top pitching signings = Yoshida.

 

sorry but not sure what u r point is here ? call me stupid

Posted
sorry but not sure what u r point is here ? call me stupid

 

He spends more on his third highest bat contract than the 3 highest arm contracts combined.

 

It's NOT about NOT spending, it's about not spending what he does spend on pitching.

 

I'm not sure how many ways I can explain it. Here is a short version:

 

He spends- just not on pitching.

Posted
He spends more on his third highest bat contract than the 3 highest arm contracts combined.

 

It's NOT about NOT spending, it's about not spending what he does spend on pitching.

 

I'm not sure how many ways I can explain it. Here is a short version:

 

He spends- just not on pitching.

 

Payroll is almost dead even. They are spending only a few million more on hitting than pitching.

Posted
He often does not replace the big contracts we lose, so spending big might actually still be cutting from the previous year's payroll, but when you look at just the payroll with no context, there has not been a steady decline in spending. We saw a massive peak in spending in 2018 and 2019, and many ups and downs before and after.

 

We are looking at just 2 straight years of decline after a pretty big jump up in 2022, so I'm not seeing this idea that JH

 

RED= $5M+ drop

BLUE= $5M+ gain

Opening Day 26 Man Payroll

99.9 '03

127 '04

124 '05

120 '06 (down $7M over 2 seasons)

143 '07

133 '08

122 '09 (down $21M over 2 seasons

168 '10

163 '11

175 '12

155 '13

156 '14 (down $19M in 2 seasons)

184 '15

197 '16

234 '17 The unprecedented 3 straight years of big jumps

234 '18

236 '19

2020

180 '21 The unprecedented drop of $56M in 2 seasons

206 '22

181 '23

171 '24 Another major drop. $35M in 2 seasons being so close to the $56M drop from 2019 to 2021 certainly shows a break from the earlier pattern. However, there was a season of a jump in spending, not too long ago.

 

End of year 40 man

105 '03

130

117

137

155

147 '08

140

171

174

169

176 '13

168

186

201

189

231 '18

228

2020

187

217

203

 

Again, the gain years are by much more than the drop years, and the bigger drop years are recently, but 2022 was a decent gain year. One can see it as barely getting back near where were were after the big drops in 20202 and 2021. I get it.

 

 

2024 payroll is going to be closer to 230 million.

Posted
Payroll is almost dead even. They are spending only a few million more on hitting than pitching.

 

 

When you draft mostly batters, especially the higher draft picks, and sign mostly batters as IFAs, why do we then spend just nearly half of our money on pitching?

 

Drafting and IFA have been near 75% batter.

 

Free Agent signings & extensions should be near 75% pitching.

 

(Or, trade batters for pitchers like we did in the olden times.)

Posted

 

When you draft mostly batters, especially the higher draft picks, and sign mostly batters as IFAs, why do we then spend just nearly half of our money on pitching?

 

Drafting and IFA have been near 75% batter.

 

Free Agent signings & extensions should be near 75% pitching.

 

(Or, trade batters for pitchers like we did in the olden times.)

 

The notion of spending some huge amount on pitching just isn’t realistic. Hitters are flat out safer investments…

Posted
Payroll is almost dead even. They are spending only a few million more on hitting than pitching.

 

To me, when you consider where the focus on the farm has been on everyday players, the spending budget should have been something like this:

 

40% Rotation

30-35% Pen

25-30% Everyday players

 

The other thing is, nearly all of the very largest and longest deals and extensions, after the Sale and Nate deals have been to everyday players. I think 3 of the highest 4 pitching contracts handed out were to RP'ers.

 

 

Posted
The notion of spending some huge amount on pitching just isn’t realistic. Hitters are flat out safer investments…

 

I'm not saying there is no logic to these signings. The Devers one was essential, even if just to save face. I was they guy saying "Devers Forevers." The Story signing made sense, too, in theory, since the Bogey departure seemed immanent. I'm not sure the Yoshi signing was justifiable, with the pitching staff in such a sad state. Signings like Renfroe, Duvall and trades like O'Neill's and JBJ's seemed to fill a need at the time, but pitching was always a higher need. The big part of the Betts trade was Verdugo and not a pitcher.

 

Now, the farm and 26 & 40 man rosters were not always this loaded with quality everyday players, and back when we signed these guys, we had needs at some positions, but clearly our biggest need in every season since 2019 has been pitching. We have not even drafted or signed many pitching prospects since then, and I am fine with that, but only if the plan is to focus financial and trade capital on pitching.

 

It's easy to just say, "We need to focus our frm efforts on identifying, acquiring and developing quality pitchers in numbers," but it's not an easy thing, and even if we knew we could do it, starting yesterday, it looks like several years in the making. So what? We waste an awesome core of everyday players, all under team control for 3-9 years, as we wait for our farm system to churn out pitchers in 3-6 years?

 

Look, I'm not just about spending more on pitching: I've been a big advocate for making a big splash everyday prospects trade for a TOTR pitcher for years and years.

 

If we make a big trade, then the need for spending on pitching would be reduced, but even adding an ace via trade, this winter, what would you say is the next #1 need area?

 

I'd say:

1. SP3

2. Closer

3. Top set up man

4. Good middle RP

5. SP depth

6. another pitcher

7. a RHB (maybe swap a LHB for RHB and not spend a penny more.)

 

Do you see our needs differently?

 

If not, how do we fix the pitching problem within the window we have, which to me is 2025-2028 and beyond, with the peak being maybe 2026-2027.

 

 

Posted
I'm not saying there is no logic to these signings. The Devers one was essential, even if just to save face. I was they guy saying "Devers Forevers." The Story signing made sense, too, in theory, since the Bogey departure seemed immanent. I'm not sure the Yoshi signing was justifiable, with the pitching staff in such a sad state. Signings like Renfroe, Duvall and trades like O'Neill's and JBJ's seemed to fill a need at the time, but pitching was always a higher need. The big part of the Betts trade was Verdugo and not a pitcher.

 

Now, the farm and 26 & 40 man rosters were not always this loaded with quality everyday players, and back when we signed these guys, we had needs at some positions, but clearly our biggest need in every season since 2019 has been pitching. We have not even drafted or signed many pitching prospects since then, and I am fine with that, but only if the plan is to focus financial and trade capital on pitching.

 

It's easy to just say, "We need to focus our frm efforts on identifying, acquiring and developing quality pitchers in numbers," but it's not an easy thing, and even if we knew we could do it, starting yesterday, it looks like several years in the making. So what? We waste an awesome core of everyday players, all under team control for 3-9 years, as we wait for our farm system to churn out pitchers in 3-6 years?

 

Look, I'm not just about spending more on pitching: I've been a big advocate for making a big splash everyday prospects trade for a TOTR pitcher for years and years.

 

If we make a big trade, then the need for spending on pitching would be reduced, but even adding an ace via trade, this winter, what would you say is the next #1 need area?

 

I'd say:

1. SP3

2. Closer

3. Top set up man

4. Good middle RP

5. SP depth

6. another pitcher

7. a RHB (maybe swap a LHB for RHB and not spend a penny more.)

 

Do you see our needs differently?

 

If not, how do we fix the pitching problem within the window we have, which to me is 2025-2028 and beyond, with the peak being maybe 2026-2027.

 

 

 

 

The Sox do trade hitting for pitching. That’s how we got Winckowski, Paxton, Sims, Garcia, Wingenter, Weissert, Fitts and Sandlin. And probably a few others…

Posted
The Sox do trade hitting for pitching. That’s how we got Winckowski, Paxton, Sims, Garcia, Wingenter, Weissert, Fitts and Sandlin. And probably a few others…

 

most of those guys are garbage. we used to trade for guys like Pedro, Schilling, and Beckett

Posted (edited)
I'm not saying there is no logic to these signings. The Devers one was essential, even if just to save face. I was they guy saying "Devers Forevers." The Story signing made sense, too, in theory, since the Bogey departure seemed immanent. I'm not sure the Yoshi signing was justifiable, with the pitching staff in such a sad state. Signings like Renfroe, Duvall and trades like O'Neill's and JBJ's seemed to fill a need at the time, but pitching was always a higher need. The big part of the Betts trade was Verdugo and not a pitcher.

 

Now, the farm and 26 & 40 man rosters were not always this loaded with quality everyday players, and back when we signed these guys, we had needs at some positions, but clearly our biggest need in every season since 2019 has been pitching. We have not even drafted or signed many pitching prospects since then, and I am fine with that, but only if the plan is to focus financial and trade capital on pitching.

 

It's easy to just say, "We need to focus our frm efforts on identifying, acquiring and developing quality pitchers in numbers," but it's not an easy thing, and even if we knew we could do it, starting yesterday, it looks like several years in the making. So what? We waste an awesome core of everyday players, all under team control for 3-9 years, as we wait for our farm system to churn out pitchers in 3-6 years?

 

Look, I'm not just about spending more on pitching: I've been a big advocate for making a big splash everyday prospects trade for a TOTR pitcher for years and years.

 

If we make a big trade, then the need for spending on pitching would be reduced, but even adding an ace via trade, this winter, what would you say is the next #1 need area?

 

I'd say:

1. SP3

2. Closer

3. Top set up man

4. Good middle RP

5. SP depth

6. another pitcher

7. a RHB (maybe swap a LHB for RHB and not spend a penny more.)

 

Do you see our needs differently?

 

If not, how do we fix the pitching problem within the window we have, which to me is 2025-2028 and beyond, with the peak being maybe 2026-2027.

 

 

 

The Red Sox probably disagree with you and think they have two very good ace candidates in house already in Houck and Bello.

 

They will need one starter plus depth for next year. And they have both infield and outfield crunches. But if you want a top tier starting pitcher, expect to have to deal from the set of Mayer, Duran, Casas and/or Anthony. Packages headlined by Wilyer Abreu won’t cut it. And no you can’t add in additional players to make it work, unless one of those players is Mayer, Duran, Casas, and/or Anthony. But expect one starter and hopefully some depth.

 

Next year’s bullpen already has Hendriks, Fulmer, Whitlock (please, please, please leave him here), Kelly, Winckowski, and Slaten penciled in. A lefty or two and some depth.

Edited by notin
Posted
The Red Sox probably disagree with you and think they have two very good ace candidates in house already in Houck and Bello.

 

They should absolutely not feel that way about Bello. I think we should be happy if Bello turns out as a solid #3 who takes the ball every 5 days.

Posted
I'm not saying there is no logic to these signings. The Devers one was essential, even if just to save face. I was they guy saying "Devers Forevers." The Story signing made sense, too, in theory, since the Bogey departure seemed immanent. I'm not sure the Yoshi signing was justifiable, with the pitching staff in such a sad state. Signings like Renfroe, Duvall and trades like O'Neill's and JBJ's seemed to fill a need at the time, but pitching was always a higher need. The big part of the Betts trade was Verdugo and not a pitcher.

 

Now, the farm and 26 & 40 man rosters were not always this loaded with quality everyday players, and back when we signed these guys, we had needs at some positions, but clearly our biggest need in every season since 2019 has been pitching. We have not even drafted or signed many pitching prospects since then, and I am fine with that, but only if the plan is to focus financial and trade capital on pitching.

 

It's easy to just say, "We need to focus our frm efforts on identifying, acquiring and developing quality pitchers in numbers," but it's not an easy thing, and even if we knew we could do it, starting yesterday, it looks like several years in the making. So what? We waste an awesome core of everyday players, all under team control for 3-9 years, as we wait for our farm system to churn out pitchers in 3-6 years?

 

Look, I'm not just about spending more on pitching: I've been a big advocate for making a big splash everyday prospects trade for a TOTR pitcher for years and years.

 

If we make a big trade, then the need for spending on pitching would be reduced, but even adding an ace via trade, this winter, what would you say is the next #1 need area?

 

I'd say:

1. SP3

2. Closer

3. Top set up man

4. Good middle RP

5. SP depth

6. another pitcher

7. a RHB (maybe swap a LHB for RHB and not spend a penny more.)

 

Do you see our needs differently?

 

If not, how do we fix the pitching problem within the window we have, which to me is 2025-2028 and beyond, with the peak being maybe 2026-2027.

 

 

 

next year's closer is rehabbing right now and should be here for Sept. One of your SP will be back from TJ next year and another is rehabbing. So that is the 2 spots in the rotation and the closer.The set up guy will likely come from with-in the current group of relievers Don't be surprised if they bring back Hill after his kid's 2025 baseball season ends so he can provide more depth.

Posted
next year's closer is rehabbing right now and should be here for Sept. One of your SP will be back from TJ next year and another is rehabbing. So that is the 2 spots in the rotation and the closer.The set up guy will likely come from with-in the current group of relievers Don't be surprised if they bring back Hill after his kid's 2025 baseball season ends so he can provide more depth.

 

Paxton is not out of the question either. He'd probably come real cheap this time.

Posted

Of course a lot of $1-4M deals add up and matter, but let's look at the $5M+ deals signed since the Price deal in 2016:

 

Arb contracts not counted:

Black= everyday players

Red= SP'ers

Blue= RP'ers

 

2016: $300M on SP and $13M everyday

217/7 Price

83/5 Porcello

13/2 Chris Young

 

2017: $42M RP (not all) $33M (not all) SP, $6M everyday

42/4 Kimbrel trade

33/5 Sale trade

6/1 Moreland

 

2018: $129 everyday and $9 SP

110/5 JD Martinez

13/2 Moreland

9/1 Pomeranz trade

6/2 Nunez trade

 

2019: (lost Kimbrel & Kelly) 213 SP and 66 everyday

145/5 Sale (2020 start to extension)

60/3 (120/6) Bogey (2020 start to extension) Opt out made it $60/3

68/4 Nate (re-sign)

6/1 Pearce (re-sign)

 

2020: 6 SP

6/1 Martin Perez

(Pillar was the next biggest deal at 4.3/1)

 

2021: 15 SP and 14 everyday

14/2 Kike

10/1 Garrett

5/1 Perez II

(Renfroe & Marwin at #3M each)

 

2022: 164 everyday and 22 SP & 27 RP (30, if you count Starhm)

140/6 Story

24/2 (not all) JBJ traded for this

19/2 Barnes extension

10/2 Paxton

8/2 Diekman

7/1 Wacha

5/1 Hill

(3/1 for Strahm worked well)

 

2023: 120 everyday, 50 RP , 19 RP/SP & 10 SP

90/5 Yoshida (plus posting fee)

32/2 Jansen

19/4 Whitlock (extension where most were arb years) Used as RP'er, too.

18/2 Martin

13/1 J Turner

10/1 Kike

10/1 Kluber

7/1 Duvall

(3/1 Mondesi trade)

 

2024: 359 everyday, 94 SP & 10 RP

313/10 Devers

55/6 Bello (extension where most were arb years)

50/8 Rafaela (extension w many arb years included)

39/2 Giolito

10/2 Hendriks (more for 2025)

6/1 O'Neill trade

 

Note: I probably missed a couple guys. I also counted player salary we traded for in full, so that adds too much to those totals, but I think the pattern looks clear:

 

We used to spend more on Pitching than we have done since the Sale/Nate deals. It's way different.

Posted
next year's closer is rehabbing right now and should be here for Sept. One of your SP will be back from TJ next year and another is rehabbing. So that is the 2 spots in the rotation and the closer.The set up guy will likely come from with-in the current group of relievers Don't be surprised if they bring back Hill after his kid's 2025 baseball season ends so he can provide more depth.

 

I'm afraid JH & Co. agree with you that Hendriks can be counted on a closer, Gio can be counted on as a #2 SP and Whitlock as who knows what key role they assign him for 2025. IMO, I would not discount their "additions," as well as Fulmer's and maybe a full season from Slaten & Criswell and upticks from Weissert, I Campbell and others who underperformed in 2024.

 

No doubt, our top brass values these guys more than we do.

 

I'd count on Hendrick as the back-up closer and top 2 set-up man with an eye on needing depth, in case of further injury.

I'd count on Gio as a pretty safe bet to stay healthy and maybe give us 25 GS and 150 IP, but with numbers like a 3/4 SP'er.

I'd count on Whitlock to be a decent middle RP or set-up man, but if they slot him as a SP'er his over-under on GS might be 4.5.

Fulmer should be viewed as our 9th RP, at best.

Slaten should be good.

Not sure what we can count on from Criswell & Priester (Fitts & Dobbins)

 

The rest or our pen is as questionable as they are now... (Will they be this bad, is the question for most)

Bernardino

Kelly

Winckowski (make him a SP'er, again?)

Booser

Weissert

I Campbell

Horn

Guerrero

Mata & Murphy

 

I see it like this:

__Add___ to replace Jansen

Hendriks replaces the 2024 Martin (not the 2023 Martin)

Gio replaces Pivetta

Whitlock replaces Whitlock (2024 or which one?)

Crawford replaces a pen slot from 2024, wich creates a SP opening.

Criswell stays as our rotation depth (in AAA) or a mid-relief guy

 

Minimum needed to be significantly better in 2025 (still might not be enough) :

SP1 ___ add___

SP2 Houck

SP3 Giolito

SP4 ___add____

SP5 Bello

(SP Depth: Criswell, Wink, Preister, Fitts, Crawford/Whitlock)

 

Closer: ___ add___

RP2 Hendriks

RP3 ___add____

RP4 Slaten

RP5 Crawford

RP6 Whitlock

RP7 Winckowski

RP8 Fulmer

Pen depth: Bernardino, Kelly, Booser, (SP depth list,) I Campbell, Horn, Guerrero

 

I see 4 key pitcher additions needed, at minimum. I will not be surprised if we only add 1-2. (I'd prefer 5-6 additions.)

Posted
They should absolutely not feel that way about Bello. I think we should be happy if Bello turns out as a solid #3 who takes the ball every 5 days.

 

Maybe they shouldn’t, but he’s not as hopeless as this board portrays.

 

His similarity scores by age do include Pablo López and Kevin Gausman, which would be terrific if that trend continues. Of course they also include guts like Jason Dickson, who had a minimal career cut short by injury…

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