A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[Hugh2]

Grow up.

 

Please, this is the second time you’ve done this. Red will spend all day attacking multiple posters and then you come in and take his side. I don’t care that you think I’m a jerk, but it’s laughable that you can make that statement after hearing him go at everyone all morning.

[notin]

Some people just don’t think before they post. Or at all.

 

The concept behind keeping salary is to get a better prospect in return. Which if it’s one year. WTF wouldn’t you do that? O’Neill, Pivetta, Jansen, Martin.

 

Imagine a contender comes to you, wants one of those guys, but to stay under budget they want you to kick in the money and in return they offer you a better prospect.

 

If you’re already under the luxury tax, and you’re sellers giving up on the season, why wouldn’t you maximize your return.

 

Every GM from Bloom to DD would in that scenario.

 

 

Pretty sure a700 was referring to the Grest Reset Button trade in which the Sox unloaded AGon, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Punto’s contracts and got back what turned out to be nothing. The Sox actually did include money in that deal, but that’s besides the point. They spent their massive savings on a slew of short term free agents and won the World Series 14 months later…

[Hugh2]

Pretty sure a700 was referring to the Grest Reset Button trade in which the Sox unloaded AGon, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckett and Nick Pinto’s contracts and got back what turned out to be nothing. The Sox actually did include money in that deal, but that’s besides the point. They spent their massive savings on a slew of short term contracts and won the World Series 14 months later…

 

That would make more sense.

 

I’m not sure that’s the same reset, besides some young guys worth being part of a core I guess you could build a package around Yoshida/Devers.

[moonslav59]

This team has been fun to watch a lot of the time. Cora is managing well and the players are busting their asses.

 

It's the front office that has f***ed up once again. They are the failures. Because of their failure, we have the prospect of it making sense for the future of the team to sell off. It sucks.

 

I agree 100%.

 

Nobody wants or enjoys us being sellers, especially multiple years in a row.

 

I will add that not being sellers, some years, might add to the chances of having another failing season the next year or more.

 

It sucks even having to entertain the idea of needing to sell to get better next year.

[moonslav59]

I would prefer we do the 'buying' during winter.

 

Post of the week.

[moonslav59]

This team has no shot. Sell everyone. I hope they don’t keep so much salary like they have been doing to get busted prospects. I’d rather dump the whole salary and get nothing in return like Ben did in 2012.

 

I’m assuming you mean no shot at a ring and not the playoffs.

 

BTW, we did pay the Dodgers several million dollars for several years as part of the mega trade.

[moonslav59]

Grow up.

 

Truth hurts, sometimes, and we all know Hugh was telling it straight.

[Dipre]

dgale loves calling people know it alls and going off on posters who don't agree with his or Old Red's bs takes. They both suck.

[Bellhorn04]

This place could use some moderation from time to time.

[Maxbialystock]

Sox losing record at Fenway vs winning on road probably because of lack of good righty bats. Lefty bats normally hit to the largest part of the Fenway outfield—right and center.

[Randy Red Sox]

This place could use some moderation from time to time.

 

that is a fine line though. if people go off on each other i simply ignore those battles

[Bellhorn04]

that is a fine line though. if people go off on each other i simply ignore those battles

 

Ignoring all those posts, or giving them the quick scroll and chuckle, is definitely a sensible approach.

[Old Red]

I agree 100%.

 

Nobody wants or enjoys us being sellers, especially multiple years in a row.

 

I will add that not being sellers, some years, might add to the chances of having another failing season the next year or more.

 

It sucks even having to entertain the idea of needing to sell to get better next year.

I will add that NOT being buyers might add to the chances of having another failing season next year, or more also. It doesn’t suck to entertain the idea of buying to get better for the here, and now, and also next year.

[Maxbialystock]

I will add that NOT being buyers might add to the chances of having another failing season next year, or more also. It doesn’t suck to entertain the idea of buying to get better for the here, and now, and also next year.

 

Buying is only a good idea when your CBO knows what he is doing, and ours dumped Sale while also paying $17M of his salary this year. Then he acquired Giolito for $38M for 2 years, one of which is already gone and the other is suspect.

[moonslav59]

Buying is only a good idea when your CBO knows what he is doing, and ours dumped Sale while also paying $17M of his salary this year. Then he acquired Giolito for $38M for 2 years, one of which is already gone and the other is suspect.

 

There is a lot of luck involved, too.

 

That’s not to say mistakes were not made. I was not a big Gio fan, but I never expected less than 150 IP, let slo e zero!

[moonslav59]

Buying is only a good idea when your CBO knows what he is doing, and ours dumped Sale while also paying $17M of his salary this year. Then he acquired Giolito for $38M for 2 years, one of which is already gone and the other is suspect.

 

Buying at the deadline is almost always for rentals and rarely for long term improvement.

 

I hope we end up being buyers, but a lot can happen in the next4 weeks.

 

If somehow we could find someone to trade us a SPer under control for 2025 and 2026, I’d consider dealing a top prospect, hopefully not from the big 3 or Cespedes and K Campbell.

[moonslav59]

The more we win, the harder it will be for JH to insist on selling.

[notin]

The more we win, the harder it will be for JH to insist on selling.

 

Ok but what’s more important here? Winning or Henry selling?

 

I mean, if we win, isn’t that enough?

[Bellhorn04]

The more we win, the harder it will be for JH to insist on selling.

 

Pretty sure JH leaves the deadline decisions up to his CBO. The deadline decisions/indecision are a big reason why Bloom is no longer here.

[Bellhorn04]

Ok but what’s more important here? Winning or Henry selling?

 

I mean, if we win, isn’t that enough?

 

Very confused and confusing response LOL

[Old Red]

The more we win, the harder it will be for JH to insist on selling.

JH insisting on the Red Sox selling? Why now? He obviously hasn’t done it the last two years.

[Old Red]

Pretty sure JH leaves the deadline decisions up to his CBO. The deadline decisions/indecision are a big reason why Bloom is no longer here.

 

I can’t imagine that Brez would look for that third option in that fork in the road like Bloom did.

[Bellhorn04]

JH insisting on the Red Sox selling? Why now? He obviously hasn’t done it the last two years.

 

Yeah, no idea where moon got that from.

[Old Red]

Yeah, no idea where moon got that from.

 

That’s Moon’s normal thought process. Sell, sell, sell to get more suspects.

[Bellhorn04]

Nice to see our old friend Iggy off to an amazin' start with the Mets. Not sure why he was on the MLB sidelines so long. Bloom should have signed him last year to play SS.

[Old Red]

Nice to see our old friend Iggy off to an amazin' start with the Mets. Not sure why he was on the MLB sidelines so long. Bloom should have signed him last year to play SS.

 

That was mentioned more than once last year. He’s not as good as he was, but it would have definitely better than the Kike disaster.

[notin]

Very confused and confusing response LOL

 

Yeah I misunderstood it at the early hour

Edited July 3, 2024 by notin

[Maxbialystock]

Buying at the deadline is almost always for rentals and rarely for long term improvement.

 

I hope we end up being buyers, but a lot can happen in the next4 weeks.

 

If somehow we could find someone to trade us a SPer under control for 2025 and 2026, I’d consider dealing a top prospect, hopefully not from the big 3 or Cespedes and K Campbell.

 

So far I think it is fair to say that the offseason acquisition of starters by both Chaim Bloom and Craig Breslow has been uniformly disastrous. Breslow giving up Sale and plumping down $38M for Giolito is just the latest example.

 

Midseason deals need not be terrible. Eovaldi was one--2018. So was Schwarber--2021. In both cases the Sox still had the option to keep both of them, for a price of course.

 

I like this current Sox team despite the weak infield defense and the so-so RISP hitting. The pitching--without Sale, Giolito, Whitlock, et al--is the best it's been in a long time. Even Story on the IL hasn't hurt much because of his weak hitting. Casas is missed, but not his defense. Besides, I continue to believe that the Sox biggest lineup need is a good righty bat because Fenway Park favors righty bats.

 

I completely agree that, if the Sox stay comfortably above .500 and in the hunt for a wild card slot, they should be buyers later this month. I would love to see Breslow make a deal that isn't idiotic.

[Maxbialystock]

Ok but what’s more important here? Winning or Henry selling?

 

I mean, if we win, isn’t that enough?

 

Two kinds of winning--before July 31 and after July 31. While a win is a win is a win, it's the wins after July 31 that seem to ensure making it into the postseason.

 

If the Sox dump Jansen, O'Neill, Pivetta, and whoever on or before July 31, I think that could adversely affect their ability to get to the postseason.

 

If the Sox keep everyone and maybe add a player or two, that should improve their ability to get to the postseason, but it also means that all three will be free agents at the end of this season and therefore have no trade value.

 

Right now this Sox team of mostly no-names is pretty likeable, despite the weak defense, etc. Given the losing record at Fenway, I think a good righty bat would help in the stretch run. Same goes for a good arm or two.

 

I think Jansen's salary of $16M is insane. Last year he was also paid $16M--for 44.2 IP, which translates to $362K per IP. This year so far he's pitched 28.1 innings, so the cost per innings is $285K. But right now I think he is worth it.

[Bellhorn04]

I think Jansen's salary of $16M is insane. Last year he was also paid $16M--for 44.2 IP, which translates to $362K per IP. This year so far he's pitched 28.1 innings, so the cost per innings is $285K. But right now I think he is worth it.

 

Edwin Diaz is now the standard-setter for closer contracts - 5 years, $102 million.

 

In my view it's fair that the highest-paid closers make about half as much as the highest-paid starters.

 

They only pitch about 1/3 the innings, but the innings are much higher leverage on average, so that justifies the bump to 50%.