A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

I would have accepted an overly broad answer. Pretty much anything more specific than “managed better”…

 

Farrell bad. Cora good.

[notin]

The first-place Red Sox already clinched a winning record on this season-opening road trip. If they can just go .500 the rest of the year, they'll finish with a winning record.

 

If Story goes on the IL again for a long time, it's not the end of the world. His defense can be replaced, as good-fielding pro shortstops abound in baseball, and his bat was mediocre. But ownership has no desire for additional spending -- even to reinforce this spirited group of overachievers. They had no desire to acquire a real shortstop last year nor legit starting pitchers this winter, so foegedaboudit.

 

Better prepare for Pablo Reyes and more Romy Gonzalez types. Eddie Alvarez looked pretty slick in Florida. Hamilton is not an option. Hopefully, they don't move Rafaela to the infield and lose the improvements in CF (the ball he dropped looked like he just got lazy, bringing his glove down to his throwing hand instead of the other way around).

 

And forget about "rushing" top prospect Marcelo Mayer up to Boston... even though Henry Davis, the guy the industry thought Mayer would be drafted ahead of at #1 overall, is the starting catcher for the first-place Pirates in the NL. With so many shortstop prospects in the org, wouldn't it be great if Brez and Co. auditioned the top glovemen at all levels to help the best pitching staff in baseball: Franklin, Marvin, Nazzan, come on up, boys!

 

Henry Davis is 3 years older than Marcelo Mayer and has a .479 OPS. He might not be the best argument to support rushing prospects.

 

If the Sox don’t recall David Hamilton, might as well DFA him. If your AAA shortstop is already on the 40 man and isn’t even the backup solution when your starting shortstop goes down, why keep him? DFA him, select and recall ST superhero (and nephew of Steve Blass Disease poster-boy Steve Sax) Nick Sogard…

[Bellhorn04]

My Yankee fan cousin still talks about that play as the turning point; not the Tony Clark long foul... but I still remember another diehard Yankee disappointed when Clark didn't walk off the Series. Yankee fans were so conditioned to always win in the end that they expected it.

 

That play was a redemption of sorts for Nixon, because in the fateful 8th inning of Game 7 in 2003, on the Jeter double to RF that started the rally, some observers felt Nixon got a bad jump and should have made the play.

 

Of course it wouldn't have mattered if Joe Torre didn't make the worst decision of his career in the same game by bringing Gordon in for the 8th instead of Rivera.

[illinoisredsox]

The first-place Red Sox already clinched a winning record on this season-opening road trip. If they can just go .500 the rest of the year, they'll finish with a winning record.

 

If Story goes on the IL again for a long time, it's not the end of the world. His defense can be replaced, as good-fielding pro shortstops abound in baseball, and his bat was mediocre. But ownership has no desire for additional spending -- even to reinforce this spirited group of overachievers. They had no desire to acquire a real shortstop last year nor legit starting pitchers this winter, so foegedaboudit.

 

Better prepare for Pablo Reyes and more Romy Gonzalez types. Eddie Alvarez looked pretty slick in Florida. Hamilton is not an option. Hopefully, they don't move Rafaela to the infield and lose the improvements in CF (the ball he dropped looked like he just got lazy, bringing his glove down to his throwing hand instead of the other way around).

 

And forget about "rushing" top prospect Marcelo Mayer up to Boston... even though Henry Davis, the guy the industry thought Mayer would be drafted ahead of at #1 overall, is the starting catcher for the first-place Pirates in the NL. With so many shortstop prospects in the org, wouldn't it be great if Brez and Co. auditioned the top glovemen at all levels to help the best pitching staff in baseball: Franklin, Marvin, Nazzan, come on up, boys!

 

Davis is also 24 (will be 25 before the end of the season) and played 3 years of relatively high level college ball at Louisville (probably equivalent to Rookie or Low-A). Mayer just turned 22 and came directly of if HS.

[notin]

Farrell bad. Cora good.

 

You do make a solid argument. Still, I’m not convinced. It’s the “Cora good” side that has me waffling…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Henry Davis is 3 years older than Marcelo Mayer and has a .479 OPS. He might not be the best argument to support rushing prospects.

 

If the Sox don’t recall David Hamilton, might as well DFA him. If your AAA shortstop is already on the 40 man and isn’t even the backup solution when your starting shortstop goes down, why keep him? DFA him, select and recall ST superhero (and nephew of Steve Blass Disease poster-boy Steve Sax) Nick Sogard…

 

No disagreement about Hamilton. Never mind for the first-place Red Sox; he wasn't even Plan A, B, C, D, SS when Boston was in last place last year.

 

Fans always need to remember that orgs fill uniforms at every level to field a full team just so their handful of real prospects have somewhere to play as they grow...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Davis is also 24 (will be 25 before the end of the season) and played 3 years of relatively high level college ball at Louisville (probably equivalent to Rookie or Low-A). Mayer just turned 22 and came directly of if HS.

 

I get it, and many top prospects get called up to the majors by age 20, as well.

 

Nolan Schanuel got drafted by the Angels less than a year ago, and he's their starting first baseman. Same age as Mayer.

[Maxbialystock]

Henry Davis is 3 years older than Marcelo Mayer and has a .479 OPS. He might not be the best argument to support rushing prospects.

 

If the Sox don’t recall David Hamilton, might as well DFA him. If your AAA shortstop is already on the 40 man and isn’t even the backup solution when your starting shortstop goes down, why keep him? DFA him, select and recall ST superhero (and nephew of Steve Blass Disease poster-boy Steve Sax) Nick Sogard…

 

I must admit, candidly, that you and a few others, while you may now and then incorrectly second guess Alex Cora, definitely have the goods on what the GM/CBO should or should not do or have done. I mean you have the specifics nailed down.

 

Me, I'm kind of a big picture guy and right now cannot believe how well these Sox are playing--on the West Coast and without the traditional big bats. My take is one big bat, O'Neill's, and two good bats, Duran's and McGuire's.

 

So far--6-2 with 2 more games in Anaheim/LA--it's all about the pitching.

 

Right before the season started I scoffed at the rotation and jumped right on the "this team is going nowhere" anti-bandwagon.

[Maxbialystock]

Davis is also 24 (will be 25 before the end of the season) and played 3 years of relatively high level college ball at Louisville (probably equivalent to Rookie or Low-A). Mayer just turned 22 and came directly of if HS.

 

Good discussion on SS and the likely loss of Story, whose OPS is .617. As you two seem to agree, his strength this year is his defense, so why not look for the best defensive SS's in the system?

[notin]

No disagreement about Hamilton. Never mind for the first-place Red Sox; he wasn't even Plan A, B, C, D, SS when Boston was in last place last year.

 

Fans always need to remember that orgs fill uniforms at every level to field a full team just so their handful of real prospects have somewhere to play as they grow...

 

Hamilton can fill a need in Worcester. It’s just that if he is not needed when the only starter above him on the org depth chart gets hurt, he really had no place on the 40 man roster.

 

If they do call him up, even just to fill a bench role, obviously that’s different.

 

But if not, DFA him, and then you can re-sign him to Worcester if he clears waivers (and accepts assignment)…

[notin]

Good discussion on SS and the likely loss of Story, whose OPS is .617. As you two seem to agree, his strength this year is his defense, so why not look for the best defensive SS's in the system?

 

I doubt the Sox start his service time clock and set him up for free agency at age 28 just so he can field a few grounders while Story heals.

 

Rafaela is already in Boston. Hamilton has played in Boston. Pablo Reyes has proven to be an acceptable short term solution once already. Sogard dazzled in ST. Grissom comes back next week and has MLB SS experience. His defensive shortcomings Atlanta disapproved of might not bother Cora so much and might not be overly exposed if it’s only for two weeks. (More likely he takes over 2b and pushes weak side 2b platoon player Reyes into full time SS.)

 

I think they have other options. I think Rafaela for the next week or so, and then Grissom takes over 2b and pushes Reyes into SS.

 

Not sure who they recall to replace Story if/when he hits the IL…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Good discussion on SS and the likely loss of Story, whose OPS is .617. As you two seem to agree, his strength this year is his defense, so why not look for the best defensive SS's in the system?

 

That's the point -- for a owner guarding a frozen budget. If he's already paying other shortstops at various levels, why shop, when bringing up any one of them will only cost MLB minimum wage...

 

... and sorry, one more year of control sometime in the 2030s (if Boston hasn't become part of the Atlantic Ocean by then)!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I doubt the Sox start his service time clock and set him up for free agency at age 28 just so he can field a few grounders while Story heals.

 

Rafaela is already in Boston. Hamilton has played in Boston. Pablo Reyes has proven to be an acceptable short term solution once already. Sogard dazzled in ST. Grissom comes back next week and has MLB SS experience. His defensive shortcomings Atlanta disapproved of might not bother Cora so much and might not be overly exposed if it’s only for two weeks. (More likely he takes over 2b and pushes weak side 2b platoon player Reyes into full time SS.)

 

I think they have other options. I think Rafaela for the next week or so, and then Grissom takes over 2b and pushes Reyes into SS.

 

Not sure who they recall to replace Story if/when he hits the IL…

 

All likely -- but what if Story needs corrective surgery and is gonzo? Is Brez even allowed to dumpster dive for a good glove/bad bat 4A type? Will the FO curse the 6-2 start, because it will be bad PR not to go for it?

[notin]

I get it, and many top prospects get called up to the majors by age 20, as well.

 

Nolan Schanuel got drafted by the Angels less than a year ago, and he's their starting first baseman. Same age as Mayer.

 

Schaneul is 10 months older. Wyatt Langford is a 13 months older. Certainly not huge differences, but both are playing in their age 22 season while Mayer is in his age 21 season. And Schanuel is certainly displaying his legendary plate discipline, but not much else.

 

The biggest reason NOT to promote Mayer is - when did he last play? Portland’s season was supposed to start last night. Did it? And did Mayer play?

 

If not, he hasn’t played in a real game at any level in quite some time. Even if he did, he’s only played one game since last year’s injury-shortened campaign…

[Maxbialystock]

It is a delight to read "A Realistic View of 2024, Part II" this morning. Lots of good stuff on the Sox overall and especially on options when/if Story goes on the IL for an extended period.

 

I still think moonslav was/is right to say it's better this year than last year despite those two absolutely unforgivable errors--leading to 4 stinking unearned runs and a 5-5 tie--last night by Rafaela and Valdez.

 

Because of what moonslav said before the season started, I now think the defense has been good for the pitching, which has been spectacularly good--for 8 games, anyway.

 

The Sox have traditionally favored hitting over defense--and for the most part it has paid off. Of the 2004, 2007, 2013, or 2018 WS winners, only the 2007 Sox did not lead MLB in runs scored. Even with Manny and Big Papi and Mike Lowell, the 2007 Sox languished in 4th place (in MLB) in runs scored. It helped that the 2007 Sox team ERA was ranked 2d in MLB.

 

So maybe this year the Sox can survive or even thrive on good pitching backed up by above average fielding--and hitting that's mid-range. Right now the Sox team OPS, .720, is mid-range, ranked 14th.

 

I hasten to add that there were few signs--granted, in just 8 games--that Story was about to emerge as a serious offensive threat.

 

But we already know there are some good hitters--Devers, Casas, maybe Yoshida, both catchers, O'Neill, and Duran--who can maybe produce enough runs to put the Sox in the upper third of MLB in hitting/scoring.

Edited April 6, 2024 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

E Valdez is proving he's a DH only player. The problem is, we have a DH only guy, already, and he's making $90M.

 

I'm really hoping Story is not out for long. His defense is not easily matched.

 

He was even starting to heat up, hitting 1.007 in the 4 games, before last night. (4 RBI, too.)

[mvp 78]

Sogardhas a 593 OPS right now and is more UTIL than SS.

[mvp 78]

My guess is Romy is called up.

[moonslav59]

5% of the season played, and we are in 1st place.

 

Only the Tigers have a better AL record at 6-1. (The Brewers are 5-1 in the NL.)

 

It's way to early to start getting giddy, but there is a nice feeling about being in first place, knowing we just about have the west coast trip behind us.

 

Last night's win jumped our team OPS to .720. Those dingers really help with that.

 

Updated OPS Numbers:

1.490 O'Neill (Kaboom!)

.944 Duran (White hit. 6 SBs, too.)

.876 McGuire (I had a feeling our catchers would hit better in '24)

.733 Devers (Not to bad for batting one-armed)

.710 Casas (Let's hope last night was a sign.)

 

.667 Wong (McGuire is the FT catcher, now.)

.623 Yoshida (Gotta lead the league in groundouts to 2B.)

.617 Story (Say your prayers.)

.587 Rafaela (Can his D sustain an OPS this low?)

.516 Reyes (May be playing more, now.)

.428 Valdez (For a DH only type player, not a good start, but he leads the team in rbi)

.421 Abreu

.00 Dalbec (6 PAs)

 

[Maxbialystock]

Schaneul is 10 months older. Wyatt Langford is a 13 months older. Certainly not huge differences, but both are playing in their age 22 season while Mayer is in his age 21 season. And Schanuel is certainly displaying his legendary plate discipline, but not much else.

 

The biggest reason NOT to promote Mayer is - when did he last play? Portland’s season was supposed to start last night. Did it? And did Mayer play?

 

If not, he hasn’t played in a real game at any level in quite some time. Even if he did, he’s only played one game since last year’s injury-shortened campaign…

 

Marcelo Mayer is one of the call-ups I had in mind, but I absolutely agree with you that now is too soon.

[moonslav59]

Our pitching staff has an OPS Against of just .510!

 

That is pretty amazing, despite the small sample size. We have only 2 pitchers with an OPSA of over .652:

.836 Bello (42 PAs Against)

.896 Joely (14 PAs)

 

Our leaders:

.167 Slaten (12)

.200 Anderson (10)

.294 Jansen (17- no hits/ 4BBs)

.333 Houck (21)

.346 Crawford (42)

.357 Campbell (14)

.432 Weissert (12)

.433 Whitlock (19)

.520 Pivetta (41)

.620 Wink (24)

.652 Martin (22) Led the team, last year at .566

 

2023 Leaders:

.566 Martin (199)

.669 Crawford (527)

.685 Pivetta (587)

.693 Jansen (188)

.708 Bernardino (216)

.709 Sale (425)

.729 Wink (367)

 

Last night saw a few too many BBs, but we still have a nice K:BB ratio of 64:13 (4.9 to 1)

 

K leaders w BBs

12:4 Crawford

10:0 Houck

8:0 Whitlock

6:1 Bello

5:0 Martin

4:4 Jansen

4:1 Weissert

3:0 Anderson & Campbell

1:0 Slaten

0:1 Joely

 

Take away Jansen and Joely and the ratio is 60:8 or 7.5 to 1.

 

We have just 1 SB against us. (Our O has 9.)

 

Remember the big worry about facing LHBs? "We need a LH'd RP'er!"

.570 OPSA v RHBs

.442 OPSA v LHBs (.857 v Joely/ .419 v all our RHPs)

 

Here is an interesting stat:

.537 OPSA in wins

.520 OPSA in losses

 

This might surprise you:

.524 OPSA SP

.491 OPSA RP

 

For Bell:

CERA

0.97 McGuire (46 innings)

2.67 Wong (27 Innings)

 

 

 

 

[moonslav59]

My guess is Romy is called up.

 

Agreed.

 

The bigger question might be about Rafaela at SS and Duran in CF.

[dgalehouse]

Meanwhile, pitchers continue to drop like flies. Bieber getting Tommy John. Strider getting MRI on right elbow.

[notin]

Sogardhas a 593 OPS right now and is more UTIL than SS.

 

Small sample. If he goes 3 for 3 with 3 singles it jumps to .752. His biggest issue is Hamilton and likely call up Romy Gonzalez are already on the 40 man.

 

If they call up Romy Gonzalez, he isn’t exactly loaded with out field experience. 712 minor league innings, mostly in LF. That’s roughly half of a season. It’s probably enough for his inevitable bench role, however. And he’s the closest thing to a minor league outfielder on the 40 man…

[notin]

Agreed.

 

The bigger question might be about Rafaela at SS and Duran in CF.

 

Cora won’t hesitate to put Duran in CF…

[notin]

E Valdez is proving he's a DH only player. The problem is, we have a DH only guy, already, and he's making $90M.

 

I'm really hoping Story is not out for long. His defense is not easily matched.

 

He was even starting to heat up, hitting 1.007 in the 4 games, before last night. (4 RBI, too.)

 

Valdez’ leash is tied directly to Vaughn Grissom’s recovery…

[moonslav59]

Cora won’t hesitate to put Duran in CF…

 

Yes.

 

That choice over Romy playing FT looks most likely.

[moonslav59]

Valdez’ leash is tied directly to Vaughn Grissom’s recovery…

 

Indeed.

 

Valdez, our RBI leader, goes to AAA the second Grissom is activated.

[Maxbialystock]

Cora won’t hesitate to put Duran in CF…

 

True.

[mvp 78]

They called up DHam.