A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Rankings (190+ PAs)

 

273 Players with 190+ PAs (30 teams x 9 batters-270)

 

1.112 Judge

1.036 Ohtani

.985 Soto

.983 Harper

.979 Tucker

.974 Devers

.960 Ozuna

.956 G Henderson

.941 T Turner

18. Betts .892

27. Refsnyder .860 (Top 1/9th in MLB!)

 

31. O'Neill .839

37. Schwarber .830

45. Duran .818

54. Abreu .810

58. JD M .806

 

102. DHam .741 (above the mean)

147. Pham .706

162. Yoshida .696

169. Rafaela .692

171. D Smith .690 (in the middle third of MLB)

175. Dubon .689

 

182. Renfroe .685 (lower 1/3)

191. J Turner .678

200. Verdugo .670

230. Rizzo .630

233. Margot .627

247. Bogey .597

254. Espinal .585

267. Kike .557

273. Vazquez .514

 

[moonslav59]

MLB OPS Rankings (190+ PAs)

 

273 Players with 190+ PAs (30 teams x 9 batters-270)

 

1.112 Judge

1.036 Ohtani

.985 Soto

.983 Harper

.979 Tucker

.974 Devers

.960 Ozuna

.956 G Henderson

.941 T Turner

18. Betts .892

27. Refsnyder .860 (Top 1/9th in MLB!)

 

31. O'Neill .839

37. Schwarber .830

45. Duran .818

54. Abreu .810

56. Wong .809

58. JD M .806

 

102. DHam .741 (above the mean)

147. Pham .706

162. Yoshida .696

169. Rafaela .692

171. D Smith .690 (in the middle third of MLB)

175. Dubon .689

 

182. Renfroe .685 (lower 1/3)

191. J Turner .678

200. Verdugo .670

230. Rizzo .630

233. Margot .627

247. Bogey .597

254. Espinal .585

267. Kike .557

273. Vazquez .514

 

[moonslav59]

Nice to see Duran get the spotlight shown on him.

 

So many of us were ready to move on from him.

[Bellhorn04]

Nothing to do with anything, but watching Triston Casas and hearing him talk , he looks and sounds a lot like the former boxing champion, Oscar De La Hoya. If he has an MLB career like De La Hoya had in the ring , it will be great to see.

 

Oddly enough I saw a comparison elsewhere between Aaron Judge and Primo Carnera.

[Hugh2]

Nice to see Duran get the spotlight shown on him.

 

So many of us were ready to move on from him.

 

Time and time again we see examples of player development not being linear. People almost expect players to be Mookie Betts or bust.

 

Take a guy like Vaughn Grissom, maybe he’s the next star, or maybe….hes the next Middlebrooks and after a brief stint of MLB success never finds it again.

[Bellhorn04]

Time and time again we see examples of player development not being linear. People almost expect players to be Mookie Betts or bust.

 

Take a guy like Vaughn Grissom, maybe he’s the next star, or maybe….hes the next Middlebrooks and after a brief stint of MLB success never finds it again.

 

It's one of the things that makes baseball unique. In other sports development seems a lot faster and more linear.

 

Being able to pitch or hit a baseball successfully at the MLB level are extremely advanced and variable skills.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Time and time again we see examples of player development not being linear. People almost expect players to be Mookie Betts or bust.

 

Take a guy like Vaughn Grissom, maybe he’s the next star, or maybe….hes the next Middlebrooks and after a brief stint of MLB success never finds it again.

 

But maybe (Will will say) he'll find the next Jenny Dell.

[Bellhorn04]

But maybe (Will will say) he'll find the next Jenny Dell.

 

It's good to see a guy like Will have a life after a baseball career that flamed out much earlier than expected.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nice to see Duran get the spotlight shown on him.

 

So many of us were ready to move on from him.

 

Move on? How about just move him -- anywhere! But I'm glad to admit my mistake, and already praised him before this All-Star MVP year for turning around his career and being a role model for improving life.

 

And I still think Duran is underrated -- at least by some fans, who may have no idea how rare it is to have a player on their side who can bounce a base-hit up the middle and surprise the ballpark by roaring into second base with a hustle double!

 

While I'm at it, there's another guy I was wrong about -- the other key to the Red Sox offense. Looking at the lefty-heavy batting order, and seeing absolutely no one would could legitimately protect Rafael Devers in the line-up, I doubted he'd have a good season when pitchers had zero reason to ever throw him a strike. But here's the thing: they still don't - and it doesn't matter!

 

Only Devers swings away at waste pitches and balls outside the zone... and blasts them out of the park. Second-half prediction: Raffy will lead the AL in intentional walks or hit by pitches. Or both.

[Hugh2]

But maybe (Will will say) he'll find the next Jenny Dell.

 

Not the worse outcome in life. Got 1 million dollars to play ball, went pro (more than most people can ever say) now he has a good job and is married to Jenny Dell.

 

Perspective is everything.

[Bellhorn04]

As to the talk about trading Duran, there are no two words more beloved by armchair baseball wheeler dealers than "sell high".

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As to the talk about trading Duran, there are no two words more beloved by armchair baseball wheeler dealers than "sell high".

 

Not in the middle of a playoff run, not even for Garrett Crochet, do you trade the heart and sole of your team.

[Dipre]

I kept telling y'all to wait on Duran. Now I'm telling y'all to wait on Grissom. Mark my words.

[Maxbialystock]

It's one of the things that makes baseball unique. In other sports development seems a lot faster and more linear.

 

Being able to pitch or hit a baseball successfully at the MLB level are extremely advanced and variable skills.

 

And that's the truth! Even MLB has had exceptions to that developmental truth--like Bryce Harper--but the NBA finally had to install a "no draft until 19 rule" to keep coaches from drafting high school grads. And the NFL has been aided by the obvious requirement to see a budding star play NCAA Div I for at least a year or two. Hockey and soccer also allow great talents to be revealed at early ages.

 

But baseball is centered around hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely--and pitching to prevent that from happening. Exactly one half of each MLB roster is expected to master one skill or the other. Teddy Ballgame argued hitting was harder, but 1/2 of every MLB roster is pitchers, and you only play one pitcher at a time in a game.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

But baseball is centered around hitting a round ball with a round bat squarely--and pitching to prevent that from happening. Exactly one half of each MLB roster is expected to master one skill or the other. Teddy Ballgame argued hitting was harder, but 1/2 of every MLB roster is pitchers, and you only play one pitcher at a time in a game.

 

The premise is that pitchers and catchers know what pitch they're going to throw, while the hapless hitter has nothing but reactions or guesses...

 

... unless, of course, someone on the offense can break the secret codes of the battery -- now armed and headed with electronic communication devices; baseball refers to that as sign stealing, but it has to be in a way that is deemed legal stealing...

 

(Why aren't the batter and his coaches allowed to be fitted with devices of their own, then? Not that it would matter to mere mortals, who could be told by the pitcher they're getting a fastball upwards of 100 mph right down the middle, and still not be able to make contact)

[Maxbialystock]

As to the talk about trading Duran, there are no two words more beloved by armchair baseball wheeler dealers than "sell high".

 

Right now he is almost certainly at peak value. His WAR is 5.0, 5th highest among MLB hitters/fielders. He is about to turn 28 (Sep 5) and has several years of team control ahead of him. He just might be the biggest bargain in the known universe.

 

Chris Sale paid him a great compliment at the All-Star Game, that Duran basically leaves nothing on the field of play and spends himself fully on every play--in the field, at bat, and on the basepaths. For us fans that means he's great fun to watcher whatever he's doing.

 

Which raises this question.

 

Why are Sox fans so reluctant to come to games at Fenway to see Duran in action? Also Devers, Rafaela, Abreu, Jansen, Houck, Crawford, O'Neill, Wong, and even Hamilton and Pivetta?

 

The Sox are 95 games into this season, and 53-42. They own (for now) the 3d wild card slot, are just 1/2 game back of the Twins for the 2d place wild card and 3.5 games back of the Yankees.

 

Oh, and this season once again the AL East has the best W-L record of 6 MLB Divisions, and the Sox are just 4.5 games behind the division-leader Orioles.

 

Anyone remember the 2012 Sox? Anyone? The were a bunch of losers and finished 69-93--and they hadn't won a WS since 2007.

 

Anyone remember the 2012 Sox average attendance? Anyone? 37, 567.

 

This year the Sox attendance is 32,503, which is less than last year's 32,989 when the Sox finished 78-84, dead last in the AL East.

[Bellhorn04]

Attendance has been picking up recently if I'm not mistaken.

 

Have to remember that a lot of those tickets are purchased a long time in advance, which is one reason the team's play doesn't always line up with ticket sales.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Right now he is almost certainly at peak value. His WAR is 5.0, 5th highest among MLB hitters/fielders. He is about to turn 28 (Sep 5) and has several years of team control ahead of him. He just might be the biggest bargain in the known universe.

 

Chris Sale paid him a great compliment at the All-Star Game, that Duran basically leaves nothing on the field of play and spends himself fully on every play--in the field, at bat, and on the basepaths. For us fans that means he's great fun to watcher whatever he's doing.

 

Which raises this question.

 

Why are Sox fans so reluctant to come to games at Fenway to see Duran in action? Also Devers, Rafaela, Abreu, Jansen, Houck, Crawford, O'Neill, Wong, and even Hamilton and Pivetta?

 

The Sox are 95 games into this season, and 53-42. They own (for now) the 3d wild card slot, are just 1/2 game back of the Twins for the 2d place wild card and 3.5 games back of the Yankees.

 

Oh, and this season once again the AL East has the best W-L record of 6 MLB Divisions, and the Sox are just 4.5 games behind the division-leader Orioles.

 

Anyone remember the 2012 Sox? Anyone? The were a bunch of losers and finished 69-93--and they hadn't won a WS since 2007.

 

Anyone remember the 2012 Sox average attendance? Anyone? 37, 567.

 

This year the Sox attendance is 32,503, which is less than last year's 32,989 when the Sox finished 78-84, dead last in the AL East.

 

Regarding attendence I think we need to consider how angry the fanbase was and still is at John Henry and this is how they voice that displeasure

[moonslav59]

Time and time again we see examples of player development not being linear. People almost expect players to be Mookie Betts or bust.

 

Take a guy like Vaughn Grissom, maybe he’s the next star, or maybe….hes the next Middlebrooks and after a brief stint of MLB success never finds it again.

 

So true, Hugh.

It's hard for organizations to project these players.

Plus, Duran was tweaking his hitting approach, so often, it was hard to keep track. How long do you give a kid, after a tweak. It's almost like it's a whole new prospect, everytime a major tweak is made.

 

I'm glad we kept most of these kids, and did not chase after some sort of miracle glory run.

When Houck was down, not many of us would have been upset had we traded him with a package of prospects like 1-3 from Duran, Abreu, Wong, Crawford, Kelly and others for a proven SP'er nearing the end of his prime years.

 

Houck, Crawford, Duran, Abreu and others were "suspects," not long ago. Sure, some never work out. In fact, many don't. We've had our fair share of Jeter Downs and Middlebrooks, but patience is still a virtue, despite the "me now, now, NOW" movement.

 

It took a while to build up our young foundation and farm, and that's not a diss on DD. (I love what he did.) We are seeing the results of DD, Bloom and Brez's foundation building in action. The sacrifice was great, and it was painful. The 2021 season was not enough to ease the tide of angst and anger of Sox fans. 5 years of near uninterrupted suffering.

 

Despite major, season-ending injuries to Giolito & Whitlock, our pitching staff is putting up numbers not seen in a very long time. The best news is that all of our best pitchers, besides Gio, Pivetta & Jansen are under team control for many more years.

 

2 years: Whitlock, Hendriks (incl option)

3 years: Houck

4 years: Crawford, Wink

5 years: Slaten, Bernardino, Criswell, Weissert, Kelly, Booser, I Campbell, Murphy, Mata

6 years: Bello

 

Our everyday player set-up looks very nice (2 or more years of control:)

 

2:

3: Dalbec

4: Duran, Casas, Wong, Story (incl option), Romy

5: Abreu, DHam, Valdez, Grissom

7: Rafaela

9: Devers

 

The short list of players losing control in 3 months or 1.3 years:

After '24: Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, O'Neill, DSmith, Anderson

After '25: Refsnyder, McGuire, Westbrook

 

The upgrade of the farm has already been outlined.

 

[moonslav59]

Move on? How about just move him -- anywhere! But I'm glad to admit my mistake, and already praised him before this All-Star MVP year for turning around his career and being a role model for improving life.

 

And I still think Duran is underrated -- at least by some fans, who may have no idea how rare it is to have a player on their side who can bounce a base-hit up the middle and surprise the ballpark by roaring into second base with a hustle double!

 

While I'm at it, there's another guy I was wrong about -- the other key to the Red Sox offense. Looking at the lefty-heavy batting order, and seeing absolutely no one would could legitimately protect Rafael Devers in the line-up, I doubted he'd have a good season when pitchers had zero reason to ever throw him a strike. But here's the thing: they still don't - and it doesn't matter!

 

Only Devers swings away at waste pitches and balls outside the zone... and blasts them out of the park. Second-half prediction: Raffy will lead the AL in intentional walks or hit by pitches. Or both.

 

We may see Devers walked more as the season ends, but I think we make up for the lack of protection by having a balanced line-up that can have all 9 batters over .700.

 

Also, while we don't seem to have big name players to protect Devers in the line-up, on paper we have more than one top 30-60 batters to hit in front of or behind.

6. Devers .974

27. Refsnyder .860 (could bat after Devers, if Cora puts him there v LHPs)

31. O'Neill .839 (offers decent support if batting next, after Devers v RHPs)

45. Duran .818 (has to bat leadoff)

54. Abreu .810 (.880 career OPS v RHPs, so could protect Devers, nicely.)

56. Wong .809

 

There are 30 teams in MLB. Each team should have an average of 2 top 30 batters in the rankings. Some have zero or 1. The Sox have 6!!!!

 

There is something to be said about having a 1-2 combo like Manny & Ortiz or Jusge & Soto, but I like what we have with balance, too.

 

 

 

Top OPS in MLB (190+ PAs:)

6. Devers

[moonslav59]

For one fan, myself, I don't go to Fenway, because it is not comfortable for a large guy. It has nothing to do with high ticket prices.

 

I am not speaking for others. I know the prices keep many fans away, but I've paid hundreds of dollars for certain concert tickets, over the last few years- some in the nose-bleed sections.

[dgalehouse]

Oddly enough I saw a comparison elsewhere between Aaron Judge and Primo Carnera.

 

I don't know if that was meant as a compliment. Carnera was known as "The Ambling Alp."

[dgalehouse]

I always argued against trading Duran. Always said he was a very key member of this team. Good thing Breslow felt the same way.

[notin]

I always argued against trading Duran. Always said he was a very key member of this team. Good thing Breslow felt the same way.

 

I promoted dealing him because he was redundant in CF with Rafaela. Interestingly enough, I was always told he wasn’t good enough to bring back good pitching…

[Bellhorn04]

None of us really know what the eff we're talking about.

[mvp 78]

I kept telling y'all to wait on Duran. Now I'm telling y'all to wait on Grissom. Mark my words.

 

Uh, ok.

[notin]

None of us really know what the eff we're talking about.

 

Also, none of it matters to anyone else…

[mvp 78]

Right now he is almost certainly at peak value. His WAR is 5.0, 5th highest among MLB hitters/fielders. He is about to turn 28 (Sep 5) and has several years of team control ahead of him. He just might be the biggest bargain in the known universe.

 

Chris Sale paid him a great compliment at the All-Star Game, that Duran basically leaves nothing on the field of play and spends himself fully on every play--in the field, at bat, and on the basepaths. For us fans that means he's great fun to watcher whatever he's doing.

 

Which raises this question.

 

Why are Sox fans so reluctant to come to games at Fenway to see Duran in action? Also Devers, Rafaela, Abreu, Jansen, Houck, Crawford, O'Neill, Wong, and even Hamilton and Pivetta?

 

The Sox are 95 games into this season, and 53-42. They own (for now) the 3d wild card slot, are just 1/2 game back of the Twins for the 2d place wild card and 3.5 games back of the Yankees.

 

Oh, and this season once again the AL East has the best W-L record of 6 MLB Divisions, and the Sox are just 4.5 games behind the division-leader Orioles.

 

Anyone remember the 2012 Sox? Anyone? The were a bunch of losers and finished 69-93--and they hadn't won a WS since 2007.

 

Anyone remember the 2012 Sox average attendance? Anyone? 37, 567.

 

This year the Sox attendance is 32,503, which is less than last year's 32,989 when the Sox finished 78-84, dead last in the AL East.

 

Fan attendance lags. Just because a player is exciting today, doesn't mean fans will be pounding the ticket office. It takes awhile to gain momentum back.

[mvp 78]

For one fan, myself, I don't go to Fenway, because it is not comfortable for a large guy. It has nothing to do with high ticket prices.

 

I am not speaking for others. I know the prices keep many fans away, but I've paid hundreds of dollars for certain concert tickets, over the last few years- some in the nose-bleed sections.

 

This didn't stop people 10 years ago though.

[notin]

This didn't stop people 10 years ago though.

 

Unless they shrink-flated the seats…