A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[moonslav59]

Right now, the Sox do not have any position players on their 40 man roster that are not in MLB. They called up minor league journeyman catcher Tyler Heineman once Casas was on the IL, but not because he earned the promotion and not because they needed a catcher; he’s was promoted because there was no one else left…

 

Grissom is on the 40 but he is rehabbing in AAA, now. He will be called up, soon.

 

I'm not sure who we have, who could be added to the 40 and is better than what we have (besides Dalbec) and can play 1B and or 3B.

 

1B Kavadas (Jordan AA)

3B Westbrook (might be the best choice)

3B Meidroth (has been hot, lately)

UT Sogard, E Alvarez

3B Paulino (AA)

2B Yorke (AA)

 

Nobody jumps out as being held back from greatness.

SS Mayer (AA)

 

 

[moonslav59]

Greg Weissert has been a huge plus so far as well…

 

Yup. and Slaten, Bernardino and Anderson.

[moonslav59]

Our top 13 Pitchers all have ERAs below 4.26, counting Pivetta and Whitlock.

 

Listed in order of most IP

 

0.66 Crawford 27.1

3.04 Bello 26.2

1.35 Houck 26.2

1.96 Whitlock 18.0 (IL)

4.20 Wink 15.0

0.63 Slaten 14.1

2.77 Anderson 13.0

0.82 Pivetta 11.0 (IL)

1.86 Weissert 9.2

4.00 Martin 9.0

5.63 Joely 8.0

2.35 Jansen 7.2

1.23 Bernardino 7.1

12.79 Campbell 6.1 (IL)

4.26 Criswell 6.1

4.50 Booser 2.0

5.40 Jacques 1.2 (DFA'd)

 

 

Edited April 22, 2024 by moonslav59

[notin]

Yup. and Slaten, Bernardino and Anderson.

 

I am hoping Criswell and/or Anderson can grab rotation spot and convince the Sox to move Whitlock (once healthy) back to the bullpen...

[moonslav59]

I am hoping Criswell and/or Anderson can grab rotation spot and convince the Sox to move Whitlock (once healthy) back to the bullpen...

 

I don't disagree, but I'm not sure they will do this. They may just try to start Whitlock and pull him after 55-65 pitches. Maybe the dreaded "piggyback" word comes out, again.

 

We do have Wink, Anderson and Criswell who can go 2-3 IP (Criswell & Anderson 4 or 5,) so maybe they just stick with the original rotation.

 

I worry about Pivetta being able to return. We might need Criswell or Anderson for him more than Whitlock.

[notin]

I don't disagree, but I'm not sure they will do this. They may just try to start Whitlock and pull him after 55-65 pitches. Maybe the dreaded "piggyback" word comes out, again.

 

We do have Wink, Anderson and Criswell who can go 2-3 IP (Criswell & Anderson 4 or 5,) so maybe they just stick with the original rotation.

 

I worry about Pivetta being able to return. We might need Criswell or Anderson for him more than Whitlock.

 

I’m positive they will NOT move Whitlock out of the rotation, even if Anderson and Criswell combine for 1000 hitless IP between now and Garret’s return…

[moonslav59]

Before today's win, our pitching staff was...

 

SP:

1st in fWAR at 3.2

2nd in xFIP- at 81

4th in SIERA ay 3.37

 

 

RP:

11th in fWAR 0.5

5th in xFIP- at 88

6th in SIERA at 3.34

 

Overall:

fWAR

3.8 PHI

3.7 BOS

3.2 WSH

2.9 KCR

2.7 NYM

2.5 BAL & OAK

 

xFIP-

84 BOS

85 PHI

86 SEA & MIN

89 BAL

 

SIERA

3.24 MIN

3.33 SEA

3.36 BOS

3.42 PHI

3.49 BAL

 

(Note: we have played 2 of the top pitching teams from each of these 3 categories, already.)

[moonslav59]

MLB SP Leaders (146 Pitchers with 10+ IP)

 

fWAR

1. Crawford 1.1

3. Houck 1.0

48. Whitlock & Pivetta 0.4

67. Bello 0.3

 

ERA-

4. Crawford 16

6. Pivetta 20

14. Houck 33

24. Whitlock 48

53. Bello 74

 

xFIP-

5. Houck 52

7. Pivetta 63

28. Bello 79

54. Whitlock 93

66. Crawford 98

 

 

[Larry Cook]

I have a plan for making our team better.

 

1.) we hire MIT students to hack joely’s gps on his phone and car.

2.) get the MIT students to replace fenway’s address with the Yankees address in joely’s car and phone

3.) get the MIT students to send an email to the league office that we have traded joely to New York Yankees for weaver

4.) get the MIT students to send an email informing the Yankees baseball operations dept to add joely to the roster and remove weaver.

5.) send a jet to pick up weaver and bring him to Fenway.

6.) hope joely stays healthy all year long

[Nick]

I know I harp on this, but if you have a guy who goes 1 for 30 AB (2 were walks)and strikes out 19 times would you keep him on the 40 man? The same guy is a marginal fielder. Why not bring up a vaunted rookie who is much morew valuable defensively and might just get a hit here and there? The Sox management inaction is frustrating. Dalbec is the player and it is not his first time around the May pole. What makes management feel things would change?

I agree. It's time to give someone else a chance.

 

This is good time to do it. Maybe even bringing up a third base man and experiment Devers at 1B. I have a feeling Casa will be out for extended period. His injury hinders his swing. He won't return for couple of months I predict.

Edited April 22, 2024 by Nick

[Nick]

Yup. and Slaten, Bernardino and Anderson.

 

I don't see what the staff sees in Joely.....okay so he was injured last year. What's the excuse this year? Bernardino got screwed.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kutter Crawford leads the American League in WAR... not just AL pitchers -- but all players. He is second in baseball to Mookie Betts.

 

Overall, of the Red Sox' top 12 WAR players, eight are pitchers. Rule V acquisition Justin Slaten is third on the club in WAR, behind Crawford and Jarren Duran. The only other position players in the Sox' top 12 are O'Neill, Abreu and McGuire. Duran leads the league in stolen bases. O'Neill still leads in Slugging and OPS.

 

Someone said posters here think Boston's success is lucky. When eight of your best players are pitchers, that's not luck -- but good pitching does makes good luck. The only bad luck is the number of injuries already to so many significant players.

 

Maybe the most lucky break the Sox had this winter is when Andrew Bailey agreed to join them. Alex Cora has also been a huge factor keeping the vibe positive throughout adversity -- just like he did leading the '21 club to the ALCS when the roster was decimated by Covid.

[moonslav59]

Sox fWAR leaders through 1/7th of the season: (bWAR)

 

1.1 Crawford (1.7)

1.0 Houck (0.9)

0.9 O'Neill (0.8)

0.8 Duran (1.2)

0.5 Slaten (1.0)

0.5 Casas (0.2)

0.4 Whitlock (0.9)

0.4 Pivetta (0.6)

0.4 Abreu (0.9)

0.3 Bello (0.5)

0.3 Wong (0.1)

0.3 Refsnyder (0.3)

0.2 Wink (-0.5)

0.2 Bernardino (0.4)

0.2 McGuire (0.3)

0.1 Devers (0.1), Martin (-0.1), Anderson (0.2), Jansen (0.3)

 

Take the average and multiply by 7, and you get:

9.8 Crawford

7.0 Duran

6.7 Houck

6.0 O'Neill

4.6 Abreu

4.6 Whitlock

3.5 Pivetta

2.8 Bello

2.5 Casas

2.1 Slaten, Ref , Bernardino

1.8 McGuire

1.4 Wong, Jansen

0.7 Devers

[mvp 78]

I don't see what the staff sees in Joely.....okay so he was injured last year. What's the excuse this year? Bernardino got screwed.

 

1. Doesn't throw a 4 seamer.

2. 88th percentile in exit velo.

3. 93rd percentile in bb rate.

4. 80th percentile in ground ball rate.

[mvp 78]

Kutter Crawford leads the American League in WAR... not just AL pitchers -- but all players. He is second in baseball to Mookie Betts.

 

Overall, of the Red Sox' top 12 WAR players, eight are pitchers. Rule V acquisition Justin Slaten is third on the club in WAR, behind Crawford and Jarren Duran. The only other position players in the Sox' top 12 are O'Neill, Abreu and McGuire. Duran leads the league in stolen bases. O'Neill still leads in Slugging and OPS.

 

Someone said posters here think Boston's success is lucky. When eight of your best players are pitchers, that's not luck -- but good pitching does makes good luck. The only bad luck is the number of injuries already to so many significant players.

 

Maybe the most lucky break the Sox had this winter is when Andrew Bailey agreed to join them. Alex Cora has also been a huge factor keeping the vibe positive throughout adversity -- just like he did leading the '21 club to the ALCS when the roster was decimated by Covid.

 

The baserunning and fielding has just been bad. I'm not sure 3 months of a new coach can fix the fielding issues though.

[moonslav59]

We are in 3rd place, by ourselves.

2 GB BAL

2.5 GB NYY

 

5th Best record in the AL (.5 GB KCR for 4th)

 

11th best record in MLB but tid for 9th in GB (0.5 GB 7th best)

 

8th best run diff at +18.

 

Nice start.

[mvp 78]

We are in 3rd place, by ourselves.

2 GB BAL

2.5 GB NYY

 

5th Best record in the AL (.5 GB KCR for 4th)

 

11th best record in MLB but tid for 9th in GB (0.5 GB 7th best)

 

8th best run diff at +18.

 

Nice start.

 

Imagine if they had even average defense!

[moonslav59]

Imagine if they had even average defense!

 

My dream.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A few of the latest polls: MLB.com Power Rankings: Yankees #2, O's #3, Jays #12, Red Sox #14... USA Today: O's #2, Yankees #3, Jays #9, Red Sox #12. We all know how great the Yanks are, because they're from New York. But let's look at the reasons why they're so much better than Boston... so far.

 

It can't be pitching, where the Sox lead the majors in ERA, Strikeouts and FIP. Must be the offense and defense...

 

Runs scored per game: NY 4.55, Bos 4.48 -- a whooping crane 7/100th of a run difference; OPS: NY .706, Bos .702 -- 4/1,000th better. LOB: NY 158, Bos 155 -- uhh. Runs scored: Bos 103, NY 100 (whoops)... HRs: Bos 29, NY 22... Boston batters do lead MLB in Ks -- but NY leads in Grounded Into Double Plays with 24; Bos has 11.

 

If comparisons with bats were indecisive, the voters must expect Aaron Judge, 32, to be the one to bust out, and not Rafael Devers, 27, who has more extra base hits than anyone since 2019. But let's be honest -- the Yankees are better than the Red Sox because of defense. Boston has the most errors, with the worst fielding percentage in the bigs.

 

Such disparities on D between the archrivals... E's: Bos 21, NY 19... Fielding %: Bos .975, NY .977... Defensive Efficiency: NY .700, Bos .698. With such stark differences, along with Boone in the dugout over Cora, face it, Sox fans -- doomnation.

[mvp 78]

A name that has popped out to replace Casas temporarily: Jared Walsh:

 

Walsh

 

for

 

Juan Chacon or similar

 

IDK, he seems to be a LH Dalbec. I don't know how much you're really getting out of him.

[mvp 78]

A few of the latest polls: MLB.com Power Rankings: Yankees #2, O's #3, Jays #12, Red Sox #14... USA Today: O's #2, Yankees #3, Jays #9, Red Sox #12. We all know how great the Yanks are, because they're from New York. But let's look at the reasons why they're so much better than Boston... so far.

 

It can't be pitching, where the Sox lead the majors in ERA, Strikeouts and FIP. Must be the offense and defense...

 

Runs scored per game: NY 4.55, Bos 4.48 -- a whooping crane 7/100th of a run difference; OPS: NY .706, Bos .702 -- 4/1,000th better. LOB: NY 158, Bos 155 -- uhh. Runs scored: Bos 103, NY 100 (whoops)... HRs: Bos 29, NY 22... Boston batters do lead MLB in Ks -- but NY leads in Grounded Into Double Plays with 24; Bos has 11.

 

If comparisons with bats were indecisive, the voters must expect Aaron Judge, 32, to be the one to bust out, and not Rafael Devers, 27, who has more extra base hits than anyone since 2019. But let's be honest -- the Yankees are better than the Red Sox because of defense. Boston has the most errors, with the worst fielding percentage in the bigs.

 

Such disparities on D between the archrivals... E's: Bos 21, NY 19... Fielding %: Bos .975, NY .977... Defensive Efficiency: NY .700, Bos .698. With such stark differences, along with Boone in the dugout over Cora, face it, Sox fans -- doomnation.

 

NY - 10th in batting fWAR (Sox 23rd), better bb rate, better k rate, wRC+ is 14 points higher, 5th in DRS (Sox 12th), tied for 14th in OAA (Sox are 25th)

[notin]

A name that has popped out to replace Casas temporarily: Jared Walsh:

 

Walsh

 

for

 

Juan Chacon or similar

 

IDK, he seems to be a LH Dalbec. I don't know how much you're really getting out of him.

 

He was ok a couple years ago with Anaheim.

 

Recently DFAd by Texas, which makes him much easier to acquire for almost any non-prospect

[mvp 78]

He was ok a couple years ago with Anaheim.

 

Recently DFAd by Texas, which makes him much easier to acquire for almost any non-prospect

 

Joe Jacques?

[mvp 78]

My favorite non-prospect is Cash.

[Maxbialystock]

A few of the latest polls: MLB.com Power Rankings: Yankees #2, O's #3, Jays #12, Red Sox #14... USA Today: O's #2, Yankees #3, Jays #9, Red Sox #12. We all know how great the Yanks are, because they're from New York. But let's look at the reasons why they're so much better than Boston... so far.

 

It can't be pitching, where the Sox lead the majors in ERA, Strikeouts and FIP. Must be the offense and defense...

 

Runs scored per game: NY 4.55, Bos 4.48 -- a whooping crane 7/100th of a run difference; OPS: NY .706, Bos .702 -- 4/1,000th better. LOB: NY 158, Bos 155 -- uhh. Runs scored: Bos 103, NY 100 (whoops)... HRs: Bos 29, NY 22... Boston batters do lead MLB in Ks -- but NY leads in Grounded Into Double Plays with 24; Bos has 11.

 

If comparisons with bats were indecisive, the voters must expect Aaron Judge, 32, to be the one to bust out, and not Rafael Devers, 27, who has more extra base hits than anyone since 2019. But let's be honest -- the Yankees are better than the Red Sox because of defense. Boston has the most errors, with the worst fielding percentage in the bigs.

 

Such disparities on D between the archrivals... E's: Bos 21, NY 19... Fielding %: Bos .975, NY .977... Defensive Efficiency: NY .700, Bos .698. With such stark differences, along with Boone in the dugout over Cora, face it, Sox fans -- doomnation.

 

Absolutely fascinating. Great stuff!

[notin]

Joe Jacques?

 

I would assume they want a non-40 man player, so maybe?

 

I was just looking into Walsh, who was pretty good in 2021, but has battled Thoracic Outlet Syndrome since and been awful.

 

Meanwhile Brandon Belt is still unemployed despite coming off a season in which he had a .858 OPS/136OPS+ and 19 HRs…

[mvp 78]

@SoxNotes

The Red Sox are 13-10 (.565), a 91-win pace.

 

Most recent Red Sox teams to go 13-10 or better through 23 games:

 

2024

2021*

2018*

2016*

2013*

2009*

2008*

2007*

 

*Made Postseason

[moonslav59]

@SoxNotes

The Red Sox are 13-10 (.565), a 91-win pace.

 

Most recent Red Sox teams to go 13-10 or better through 23 games:

 

2024

2021*

2018*

2016*

2013*

2009*

2008*

2007*

 

*Made Postseason

 

It would not be the first time a Sox team made the playoffs after not having high hopes in March.

[jgar658]

Our top 13 Pitchers all have ERAs below 4.26, counting Pivetta and Whitlock.

 

Listed in order of most IP

 

0.66 Crawford 27.1

3.04 Bello 26.2

1.35 Houck 26.2

1.96 Whitlock 18.0 (IL)

4.20 Wink 15.0

0.63 Slaten 14.1

2.77 Anderson 13.0

0.82 Pivetta 11.0 (IL)

1.86 Weissert 9.2

4.00 Martin 9.0

5.63 Joely 8.0

2.35 Jansen 7.2

1.23 Bernardino 7.1

12.79 Campbell 6.1 (IL)

4.26 Criswell 6.1

4.50 Booser 2.0

5.40 Jacques 1.2 (DFA'd)

 

 

 

Campbell has to go

[Bellhorn04]

Campbell has to go

 

Only 6.1 IP.