A Realistic View of 2024: Part II

[mvp 78]

Any thoughts on Abreu? He looks totally lost and nothing like last year. Taking good pitches and swing at bad ones.

He appears to be unconfident.

 

1. It’s early.

2. He was playing over his head last year.

[moonslav59]

1. It’s early.

2. He was playing over his head last year.

 

It's too early to know if he was playing over his head, last season.

[Hitch]

Lots of encouraging signs out of that opening series. Really should have left with a 3-1.

 

Got to punish 2 poor teams now and make this a good West Coast trip.

[Elktonnick]

Lots of encouraging signs out of that opening series. Really should have left with a 3-1.

 

Got to punish 2 poor teams now and make this a good West Coast trip.

Much better than anticipated. Starters all pitched very well.

[notin]

Sox SP through 4 games:

 

25K

1BB

[Maxbialystock]

The complaints about Cora so far have been stupid and unjustified--especially the caterwauling about how he refused to allow Jansen to close last night.

 

I think Cora is just the right guy for this team, who could easily be 3-1 but for those two costly errors last night. Even better would have been Jansen without a stiff back.

 

The real credit, of course, has to go to the rotation. Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and even Whitlock were insanely good in their first starts. I think the defense is better than last year, also the baserunning. The hitting--not so good--but I agree with others it will get better.

[Larry Cook]

Sox SP through 4 games:

 

25K

1BB

 

Sign of an aggressive inexperienced lineup

[Nick]

These guys should be in their prime.

 

25 Bello (7 yrs)

28 Kutter (5 yrs)

28 Whitlock (5 yrs)

28 Houck (4 years)

31 Pivetta (1 year)

 

They have shown they can be decent.

 

Would you trade Pivetta if we are out of it in July and we can't extend him?

[Hitch]

.

Would you trade Pivetta if we are out of it in July and we can't extend him?

 

Absolutely. It would be crazy not to.

[Larry Cook]

These guys should be in their prime.

 

25 Bello (7 yrs)

28 Kutter (5 yrs)

28 Whitlock (5 yrs)

28 Houck (4 years)

31 Pivetta (1 year)

 

They have shown they can be decent.

 

Would you trade Pivetta if we are out of it in July and we can't extend him?

 

I think we have 4 players in the final year of their contract that should be trade bait this year

[sk7326]

The complaints about Cora so far have been stupid and unjustified--especially the caterwauling about how he refused to allow Jansen to close last night.

 

I think Cora is just the right guy for this team, who could easily be 3-1 but for those two costly errors last night. Even better would have been Jansen without a stiff back.

 

The real credit, of course, has to go to the rotation. Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, and even Whitlock were insanely good in their first starts. I think the defense is better than last year, also the baserunning. The hitting--not so good--but I agree with others it will get better.

 

Cora's one of the best managers in the league - he doesn't have to prove anything there.

 

For me, the watch item all season is going to be the defensive metrics. We are still in crazy small sample size theater so far, so nothing conculsive can be had. But on paper, this team should be more like "average or better" - which would be a huge upgrade over "Actively harmful" like they were last season. That alone could add a few wins ... and if it allows the pitchers to not worry about being super fine with hitting spots, so much the better.

[Maxbialystock]

Cora's one of the best managers in the league - he doesn't have to prove anything there.

 

For me, the watch item all season is going to be the defensive metrics. We are still in crazy small sample size theater so far, so nothing conculsive can be had. But on paper, this team should be more like "average or better" - which would be a huge upgrade over "Actively harmful" like they were last season. That alone could add a few wins ... and if it allows the pitchers to not worry about being super fine with hitting spots, so much the better.

 

There are tons of talksoxers who question almost everything Cora does.

 

moonslav talked incessantly about the defense last year and basically said what you've just said. So far, I like the defense. The two errors last night were costly, but the good outweighs the bad so far.

[moonslav59]

There are tons of talksoxers who question almost everything Cora does.

 

moonslav talked incessantly about the defense last year and basically said what you've just said. So far, I like the defense. The two errors last night were costly, but the good outweighs the bad so far.

 

Just so you know, while you were gone, this winter, I've been posting incessantly about how much our defense has improved, especially when Grissom replaces EValdez at 2B.

 

Our D sucked, last year. It was 30th in MLB. That was not Cora's fault.

 

I'm probably second to you in showing support for Cora.

[moonslav59]

I think we have 4 players in the final year of their contract that should be trade bait this year

 

Actually 5...

 

Martin

Jansen

Pivetta

O'Neall

Chase Anderson (easy to forget)

 

(Ref has a club option)

[moonslav59]

Sox SP through 4 games:

 

25K

1BB

 

Who? Seattle?

[Maxbialystock]

Just so you know, while you were gone, this winter, I've been posting incessantly about how much our defense has improved, especially when Grissom replaces EValdez at 2B.

 

Our D sucked, last year. It was 30th in MLB. That was not Cora's fault.

 

I'm probably second to you in showing support for Cora.

 

I completely disagreed with your obsession about defense last year. And I was wrong. These first 4 games have been revelatory for me.

 

For all we know the improved defense has given the rotation a tad more confidence. Someone posted the following, which I just verified: the four starters so far have gone 22 innings while giving up 1 BB. Ain't that something?

[Maxbialystock]

I think we have 4 players in the final year of their contract that should be trade bait this year

 

I'm sure you're right and I suppose that's a great insight.

 

But, frankly, I prefer to think of our current team as keepers, as in, we keep them because they are winning freaking games. You, on the other hand, seem to be planning for and maybe even hoping for failure. Wrong?

[notin]

Who? Seattle?

 

Yes. Those Seattle Sox.

 

 

I can’t get my facepalm emoji to work…

[moonslav59]

4 starts and some encouraging numbers by our rotation:

 

22 IP

4 ER (1.64 ERA)

14 Hits (2 HRs)

1 BB

27 Ks

 

5 pen arms have allowed no runs:

Slaten 2.1 IP, Martin 2.0, Weissert 2.0, Wink 2.0, Jansen 1.0

9.1 IP

5 Hits (0 HRs)

4 BBs

13 Ks

 

Joely + Campbell

4 IP

4 ER (9.00 ERA)

4 Hits

1 BB

 

OPS Leaders

1.538 O'Neill

1.071 McGuire (8 PA)

1.000 Devers

.916 Rafaela

.858 Wong (7 PA)

(Our catcher combination is off to a great start on O and run prevention.)

 

.607 Yoshida

.584 Valdez

.500 Reyes

 

.398 Story

.393 Abreu (7 PA)

.347 Duran

.243 Casas

 

.000 Dalbec (3 PA)

5 Ks

 

ERAs

0.00 Crawford

1.50 Pivetta

1.80 Whitlock

3.60 Bello

 

[Larry Cook]

I thought slaten threw the ball pretty good today. I can’t wait to see how he develops

[moonslav59]

I completely disagreed with your obsession about defense last year. And I was wrong. These first 4 games have been revelatory for me.

 

For all we know the improved defense has given the rotation a tad more confidence. Someone posted the following, which I just verified: the four starters so far have gone 22 innings while giving up 1 BB. Ain't that something?

 

Maybe, I over emphasized defense, last season. I think I've always valued it more than most... maybe because I was not a good hitter, myself, and survived by playing plus D and running the bases well.

 

When a team is losing, like we were last year, bumbling on D is like the second kick in my balls.

 

Our D should be much better, this year, and it could even be above average (slightly.) That makes watching the game less stressful, but also fun to watch, when other things are going badly. We've already seen some great plays in just 4 games- maybe more than we saw in about 15-20 games, last year.

 

I love watching great D. What can I say?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Seattle series featured the top pitching staff in baseball in Runs Against per game 2.50 and WHIP 0.821...

 

... not the Mariners', but the one from BOSTON -- Red Sox pitchers also lead the American League in strikeouts.

[moonslav59]

The Seattle series featured the top pitching staff in baseball in Runs Against per game 2.50 and WHIP 0.821...

 

... not the Mariners', but the one from BOSTON -- Red Sox pitchers also lead the American League in strikeouts.

 

We also have just 6 BBs, which is one away from BAL & DET. (1st in BB% at 4.4%)

 

First in K:BB at 7.50

First in FIP (2.87) and xFIP (2.83)

 

[sk7326]

Just so you know, while you were gone, this winter, I've been posting incessantly about how much our defense has improved, especially when Grissom replaces EValdez at 2B.

 

Our D sucked, last year. It was 30th in MLB. That was not Cora's fault.

 

I'm probably second to you in showing support for Cora.

 

especially with the rule changes limiting the ways that postioning can be used to paper over limitations ... managers and coaching staffs have less power to hide poor infield defense

[moonslav59]

I'm predicting defensive ranking changes from 2023 to 2024 as such:

 

C: slight gain

1B: moderate gain

2B: large gain

SS: large gain

3B: same (maybe slight loss with no Turner)

LF: moderate gain

CF: Large gain

RF: same (maybe slight loss)

 

Team ranking: 30th to 16th.

[harmony]

Seattle batters now lead the league with 45 strikeouts even though the Mariners’ offseason plan was to cut down on strikeouts by jettisoning Eugenio Suarez, Teoscar Hernandez and Jarred Kelenic.

 

The Mariners hope to avoid the slow starts that have plagued the last three seasons. Over the past three years only seven of the other 29 MLB teams have won more regular-season games than Seattle but the Mariners have managed to land only one of the 34 available postseason berths over that period … their only appearance since 2001.

 

Hats off to the Red Sox for their their successful season-opening trip to Seattle.

[moonslav59]

Houck pitches, tonight. Chase Anderson has yet to be given the ball.

 

Only Joely has an ERA above 4.50.

 

Only Joely (13.50) and Campbell (4.50) have an ERA over 3.60 (Bello.)

 

All the other 8 pitchers who have seen action have ERAs at 1.80 or lower.

 

On the flip side, 7 of 11 batters have an OPS below .608.

5 of 11 at .500 or lower and 4 of 11 under .400 (Casas, Story, Duran & Abreu.)

 

Some surprises at positional OPS:

.912 LF

.812 C (1.071 McGuire/ .857 Wong, but RM had a Hit as a PH)

.741 RF

.706 3B

.647 CF

.607 DH

.500 2B

.399 SS

.243 1B

Edited April 1, 2024 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We also have just 6 BBs, which is one away from BAL & DET. (1st in BB% at 4.4%)

 

First in K:BB at 7.50

First in FIP (2.87) and xFIP (2.83)

 

 

ONE walk from the four starters -- throwing mostly offspeed pitches, as directed by the Bailey Blueprints (fast facts: Boston has thrown the least amount of four-seam fastballs so far; San Francisco's staff threw the least amount of four-seamers last year).

 

... wondering: how long will elbow tendons and ligaments last, snapping off slews of sweepers, sliders, curves, change-ups and two-seamers?

[gojohn99]

I'm pleasantly surprised so far, but it's just ONE series.

[Nick]

Basically we have $48M to replace Nick Pivetta's spot in the rotation for 2025. (Gone are Sale, Jansen, Martin and Pivetta's contracts)

 

In theory we have Giolito to replace him. His pay for 2025 is baked in. But he may not be ready on April 2025.

 

We lose Jansen and Martin but Hendriks should take one of the spots. His $5M pay for 2025 is also baked in.

 

Tanner, Reyes, Kutter, Dalbec and Duran will be arbitration eligible for the first time. Kutter and Tanner maybe or should be extended.

 

Cot is showing we have about $110M under the $240M luxury tax for 2025; $90M if we stick to $220M budget.

 

O'Neill will also be FA, we are paying him $5.85M. Looking more and more like we overpaid for Yoshida. We are paying a DH $18M with no power. Good job by Bloom. We really do piss away money. Pay Mookie type $35M and flank him with 2 rookies. We tend to over pay on 'cheap suits' and regret wearing it everytime.

 

I think future is looking up though. This rotation just needs to stay healthy.

Edited April 1, 2024 by Nick