Chris Sale traded to Braves

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's just no comparison in the situations.  The Braves got Sale on the cheap.  That's what really mitigated their risk.  

deGrom would be full price - 37 million * 3.

Who says?

He's not worth $37M x 3.

They might take Yoshida + Abreu for deGrom and save $19M a year.

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Who says?

He's not worth $37M x 3.

Why not?  

[Bellhorn04]

Man, he is a pretty good comp for Sale-ability, age, recent injury history.  The big difference is the $111 million left on the contract. 

[moonslav59]

8 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Why not?  

Not everybody is the next Chris Sale.

This guy makes Sale look like Gehrig.

5 straight seasons under 92 IP.

4 of the last 4 under 68 IP.

 

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Man, he is a pretty good comp for Sale-ability, age, recent injury history.  The big difference is the $111 million left on the contract. 

That alone answers the "why not?"

Now, look at my IP post.

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

That alone answers the "why not?"

Now, look at my IP post.

Oh, I know all about it.  And the Rangers knew a lot of it when they signed him.  They were gambling, because of the elite level talent.   

The Dodgers did the same with Glasnow.  Not to mention Yamamoto.  Both got injured already!

The injuries to top level pitchers are just an epidemic at this point and there's no real way to steer around them.  The Sox thought Giolito was a healthy horse.  Nope.  Cole missed a lot of time this year.

And whoever the Sox finally do make a move for will not come with a guarantee of clean health either.

[moonslav59]

Chris left off WC roster.

[notin]

7 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

The trade sucked, but Chris Sale was great for BOS while he was here. I hope he can get back on a HOF track.

Sale won the NL pitching Triple Crown

Skubal won the AL pitching Triple Crown

Ohtani missed the NL Triple Crown by .004 in BA.

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh, I know all about it.  And the Rangers knew a lot of it when they signed him.  They were gambling, because of the elite level talent.   

The Dodgers did the same with Glasnow.  Not to mention Yamamoto.  Both got injured already!

The injuries to top level pitchers are just an epidemic at this point and there's no real way to steer around them.  The Sox thought Giolito was a healthy horse.  Nope.  Cole missed a lot of time this year.

And whoever the Sox finally do make a move for will not come with a guarantee of clean health either.

So why is it people get the Rangers were gambling on talent with deGrom, and the Dodgers were gambling on talent with Glashow, but then think the Braves “knew something” about Sale?

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh, I know all about it.  And the Rangers knew a lot of it when they signed him.  They were gambling, because of the elite level talent.   

The Dodgers did the same with Glasnow.  Not to mention Yamamoto.  Both got injured already!

The injuries to top level pitchers are just an epidemic at this point and there's no real way to steer around them.  The Sox thought Giolito was a healthy horse.  Nope.  Cole missed a lot of time this year.

And whoever the Sox finally do make a move for will not come with a guarantee of clean health either.

You also left out the biggest Dodger pitching gamble - Ohtani.  He’s clearly a great hitter, but they didn’t commit a $70mill AAV to him so he could DH…

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

There's just no comparison in the situations.  The Braves got Sale on the cheap.  That's what really mitigated their risk.  

deGrom would be full price - 37 million * 3.

I bet if the Sox tried to acquire deGrom, Texas would chip in some cash…

[notin]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Not everybody is the next Chris Sale.

This guy makes Sale look like Gehrig.

5 straight seasons under 92 IP.

4 of the last 4 under 68 IP.

 

That doesn’t make 2020-2023 Chris Sale look like Gehrig.  

[moonslav59]

20 minutes ago, notin said:

That doesn’t make 2020-2023 Chris Sale look like Gehrig.  

On a moonless night, it does.

[sk7326]

5 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Oh, I know all about it.  And the Rangers knew a lot of it when they signed him.  They were gambling, because of the elite level talent.   

The Dodgers did the same with Glasnow.  Not to mention Yamamoto.  Both got injured already!

The injuries to top level pitchers are just an epidemic at this point and there's no real way to steer around them.  The Sox thought Giolito was a healthy horse.  Nope.  Cole missed a lot of time this year.

And whoever the Sox finally do make a move for will not come with a guarantee of clean health either.

Until the sport figures out how to change the pitching paradigm, it's going to be a gray area for sure.  

[notin]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

On a moonless night, it does.

Fair.  

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, notin said:

So why is it people get the Rangers were gambling on talent with deGrom, and the Dodgers were gambling on talent with Glashow, but then think the Braves “knew something” about Sale?

Hey, I would love to see those posts about how the Braves "knew something".  

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Not everybody is the next Chris Sale.

This guy makes Sale look like Gehrig.

5 straight seasons under 92 IP.

4 of the last 4 under 68 IP.

 

You included 2020, how kind of you! 

He was still a 4.5 bWAR pitcher in 2021 with 92 IP. 

Even with the COVID shortened 2020, deGrom pitched 104 more innings than Sale from 2020-2023.

An argument could have been made that he should have had his second TJS after getting injured in 2021, but he tried rehabbing and making it until the end of 2022 so that he could reach FA. He got surgery after signing his deal. 

Also, 4 years ago was 2021 when he pitched 92 IP an amount NOT under 68 IP. If you were trying to say 4 of the last 5 then fine, but I'd argue that 68.1 IP is not UNDER 68 IP either.

[Bellhorn04]

13 hours ago, notin said:

You also left out the biggest Dodger pitching gamble - Ohtani.  He’s clearly a great hitter, but they didn’t commit a $70mill AAV to him so he could DH…

True.  That was one nutty offseason for the Dodgers with Ohtani, Moto and Glasnow, 

AAV is only 46.07 million though. 😎

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

True.  That was one nutty offseason for the Dodgers with Ohtani, Moto and Glasnow, 

AAV is only 46.07 million though. 😎

His fWAR this year shows the contract was worth it so far. Just needs more 50/50 seasons as a DH.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

You included 2020, how kind of you! 

He was still a 4.5 bWAR pitcher in 2021 with 92 IP. 

Even with the COVID shortened 2020, deGrom pitched 104 more innings than Sale from 2020-2023.

An argument could have been made that he should have had his second TJS after getting injured in 2021, but he tried rehabbing and making it until the end of 2022 so that he could reach FA. He got surgery after signing his deal. 

Also, 4 years ago was 2021 when he pitched 92 IP an amount NOT under 68 IP. If you were trying to say 4 of the last 5 then fine, but I'd argue that 68.1 IP is not UNDER 68 IP either.

Okay, make it 69 IP and that changes everything.

The similarities to Sale are remarkable, except he has not had a 2024 type Sale season in a very long time.

The success of Sale, this year does not improve the odds on deGrom. $37M was a gross overpay, just as $25M per year for Sale turned out to be.

The Sox have made a habit out of having injured SP'ers, and our solution should not be to add another one.

[mvp 78]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Okay, make it 69 IP and that changes everything.

The similarities to Sale are remarkable, except he has not had a 2024 type Sale season in a very long time.

The success of Sale, this year does not improve the odds on deGrom. $37M was a gross overpay, just as $25M per year for Sale turned out to be.

The Sox have made a habit out of having injured SP'ers, and our solution should not be to add another one.

Sale hadn't had a 24 type season in a long time either (since 2018) and I think that was the original point. There's no indicators that deGrom is more likely to be better next season, but he looked good at the end of this year and had surgery to fix the problem he was struggling with. If the Sox need an ace, deGrom is a guy with ace upside. If the Sox relied on the oft injured Sale for 24, I'm sure you could use all these arguments to say it was a bad idea, but it would have worked out. There's a chance that it could work out with deGrom and there aren't many guys in MLB with true ace upside.

[Old Red]

40 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hey, I would love to see those posts about how the Braves "knew something".  

The Braves took Sale’s bike away from him in Atlanta. That was an easy one. Must of known something.

[moonslav59]

There was also a chance Kluber and Richards could find their old glory days, again.

I'm tired of these false hopes. Just because Sale's "false hope" turned into a truth doesn't change the equation, for me. We keep rolling the dice while betting on snake eyes. Instead, we get snake-bitten.

[Bellhorn04]

7 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There was also a chance Kluber and Richards could find their old glory days, again.

I'm tired of these false hopes. Just because Sale's "false hope" turned into a truth doesn't change the equation, for me. We keep rolling the dice while betting on snake eyes. Instead, we get snake-bitten.

And where are the sure things?  

[moonslav59]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

And where are the sure things?  

There are none, but are you trying to make the point that adding pitchers like deGrom, Kluber, Richards, Paxton, Hendriks, Paxton II, Wacha and Hill are on the same level as adding pitchers with little or no injury history?

I'm fed up with these type of signings. I'm not letting the Gio-Sale outcomes make me think it is totally random.

[Bellhorn04]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There are none, but are you trying to make the point that adding pitchers like deGrom, Kluber, Richards, Paxton, Hendriks, Paxton II, Wacha and Hill are on the same level as adding pitchers with little or no injury history?

No.  I think we'd all prefer to sign guys with clean health records.     

I'm just saying most pitchers are health risks now.  

Yamamoto was supposed to be a unicorn and all that.

 

[TheSplinteredSplendor]

12 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

There are none, but are you trying to make the point that adding pitchers like deGrom, Kluber, Richards, Paxton, Hendriks, Paxton II, Wacha and Hill are on the same level as adding pitchers with little or no injury history?

I'm fed up with these type of signings. I'm not letting the Gio-Sale outcomes make me think it is totally random.

David Price and Gerrit Cole didn't have any injury history until they did.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

No.  I think we'd all prefer to sign guys with clean health records.     

I'm just saying most pitchers are health risks now.  

Yamamoto was supposed to be a unicorn and all that.

 

I get that. The Giolito signing was supposed to be a departure from the high injury-risk signings.

Nothing is ever certain in baseball, but our recent history, other than Gio, has been signing higher risk pitchers, and just about all of them missed significant time or just plain sucked- or both.

The thing about Yamo is his age. He will likely still give some value. When you sign injury prone pitchers to 1 year deals, sometimes with no recent high IP seasons, the dynamic is different.

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

David Price and Gerrit Cole didn't have any injury history until they did.

Yup, and more can be added to the list. 

I'd rather take a chance on someone like them than 7 consecutive one year deals to guys like Kluber.

[notin]

2 hours ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Hey, I would love to see those posts about how the Braves "knew something".  

This new format makes it difficult to go back and find posts.  Also, no post numbers.  
 

But on August 22, for example, Max posted;

 

“That's what the Breslow defenders refuse to acknowledge--that the Braves knew more about Sale than the Sox did--including Breslow, JH, the rest of the front office, and probably even Cora. Sale was also smarter than the Sox because he insisted on at least one more season after this, which the Braves agreed to. The Braves also have an option on a third season in 2026,”

 

He was far from alone in that sentiment…