Chris Sale traded to Braves

[Bellhorn04]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Ok, but how did they project him before 2021, 2022 and 2023?  The risk with Sale wasn’t necessarily about pitching well…

Those are WAR projections, which necessarily include innings projections...

Projections are obviously just best guesses, but they are based on statistical models, so they're about all you can ask for.

[moonslav59]

46 minutes ago, notin said:

Then suggest another topic…

then, talk amongst yourselves...

[notin]

11 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

Those are WAR projections, which necessarily include innings projections...

Are you arguing that projections aren't reliable, but our gut feelings based on the past are?

WAR projections are based on past performances and expected growth or decline.

They cannot predict injuries.  Steamer600 has never put out a projection that says “Will not play in 202X, as he will tear his ACL.”

[Bellhorn04]

The best news about the Sale trade right now is that the Red Sox are pretty much making it irrelevant for this year.

[mvp 78]

Just now, notin said:

WAR projections are based on past performances and expected growth or decline.

They cannot predict injuries.  Steamer600 has never put out a projection that says “Will not play in 202X, as he will tear his ACL.”

We'll have to wait for SteAImer600 to do that. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The best news about the Sale trade right now is that the Red Sox are pretty much making it irrelevant for this year.

"Well, if the Sox kept Sale, they had an option to keep him for 2025 so we'll just have to keep this thread going through 9/30/25!"

[Bellhorn04]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

WAR projections are based on past performances and expected growth or decline.

They cannot predict injuries.  Steamer600 has never put out a projection that says “Will not play in 202X, as he will tear his ACL.”

What, nobody can predict injuries?  Interesting.

[Bellhorn04]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

"Well, if the Sox kept Sale, they had an option to keep him for 2025 so we'll just have to keep this thread going through 9/30/25!"

I think notin's strategy here is to keep saying Sale is due for an injury until it actually happens.

[mvp 78]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

I think notin's strategy here is to keep saying Sale is due for an injury until it actually happens.

Knowing how long this thread will go, I bet some sort of injury will happen before we're done with the convo. 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I think notin's strategy here is to keep saying Sale is due for an injury until it actually happens.

No.  I believe the front office considered Sale a high, possibly very high risk for more missed time.  And at $27mill, it was too much for them to simply replace him.  As the most significant injury, that made him most likely to be the dead money on the roster.  
 

And most of us felt this way, too, if you go back and read the early posts on this thread.  Then Sale showed up healthy and suddenly the cries were “why did we trade him?”  And “past injuries can’t predict future ones.”  That’s the logic that keeps putting Whitlock in the rotation every year.

The trade has turned out disastrous for the Sox.  Some of us just remember how it looked in December…

 

 

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, Bellhorn04 said:

The best news about the Sale trade right now is that the Red Sox are pretty much making it irrelevant for this year.

Nope.  Wrong again.  With Sale, the Sox would obviously be in the hunt for the postseason because he's that good.  Plus he would be "free" because the Sox are actually paying him right this minute to pitch for the Braves.

I also disagree with Notin's assertion that it's impossible to predict or even guess at a pitcher's future health.  The Braves looked at how Sale finished last season and decided he was worth a risk.  The Sox were so sure Sale was DOA then even agreed to pay Sale's salary this year.   Smart Braves, stupid Breslow.  

As for Giolito, he was clearly struggling his last few starts last season, which should have been a warning to Breslow.  

I read a piece recently that Sale knew in 2019 his arm/elbow weren't in good shape, which is why he didn't insist on more money when the Sox extended him.  If I recall, DD was the CBO who re-signed Sale to the long contract.  

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

Nope.  Wrong again.  With Sale, the Sox would obviously be in the hunt for the postseason because he's that good.  Plus he would be "free" because the Sox are actually paying him right this minute to pitch for the Braves.

I also disagree with Notin's assertion that it's impossible to predict or even guess at a pitcher's future health.  The Braves looked at how Sale finished last season and decided he was worth a risk.  The Sox were so sure Sale was DOA then even agreed to pay Sale's salary this year.   Smart Braves, stupid Breslow.  

As for Giolito, he was clearly struggling his last few starts last season, which should have been a warning to Breslow.  

I read a piece recently that Sale knew in 2019 his arm/elbow weren't in good shape, which is why he didn't insist on more money when the Sox extended him.  If I recall, DD was the CBO who re-signed Sale to the long contract.  

100% agree. 👍👍👍

[Old Red]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

No.  I believe the front office considered Sale a high, possibly very high risk for more missed time.  And at $27mill, it was too much for them to simply replace him.  As the most significant injury, that made him most likely to be the dead money on the roster.  
 

And most of us felt this way, too, if you go back and read the early posts on this thread.  Then Sale showed up healthy and suddenly the cries were “why did we trade him?”  And “past injuries can’t predict future ones.”  That’s the logic that keeps putting Whitlock in the rotation every year.

The trade has turned out disastrous for the Sox.  Some of us just remember how it looked in December…

 

 

You’re possibly right about how the Red Sox felt about Sale being a very high risk for more missed time, but on the other hand I don’t believe Atlanta thought he was ANY risk at all. Brez, and the Red Sox were wrong, and the Braves were right, and the Braves are reaping the rewards, because of it. Speaking of awards how does Chris Cy Young Sale sound?

[notin]

13 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You’re possibly right about how the Red Sox felt about Sale being a very high risk for more missed time, but on the other hand I don’t believe Atlanta thought he was ANY risk at all. Brez, and the Red Sox were wrong, and the Braves were right, and the Braves are reaping the rewards, because of it. Speaking of awards how does Chris Cy Young Sale sound?

I doubt Atlanta thought he was no risk at all.   There’s been talk about the risk of injury on Sale since he was drafted.  And probably before…

[notin]

24 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Nope.  Wrong again.  With Sale, the Sox would obviously be in the hunt for the postseason because he's that good.  Plus he would be "free" because the Sox are actually paying him right this minute to pitch for the Braves.

I also disagree with Notin's assertion that it's impossible to predict or even guess at a pitcher's future health.  The Braves looked at how Sale finished last season and decided he was worth a risk.  The Sox were so sure Sale was DOA then even agreed to pay Sale's salary this year.   Smart Braves, stupid Breslow.  

As for Giolito, he was clearly struggling his last few starts last season, which should have been a warning to Breslow.  

I read a piece recently that Sale knew in 2019 his arm/elbow weren't in good shape, which is why he didn't insist on more money when the Sox extended him.  If I recall, DD was the CBO who re-signed Sale to the long contract.  

Well that’s a misinterpretation of everything I’ve said.

Theres a massive difference between predicting injuries and expecting injuries.  And if a player was injured and missed all of 2020, and then got injured and missed most of 2021.  And 2022.  And 2023.  Are the Sox supposed to think he’s clear for 2024?

And you made.a point once about Casas’ recovery from pulling a muscle swinging a bat, and how it didn’t bode well for his recovery. Well, Sale once cracked a rib throwing a pitch.  But that gets overlooked?

[Maxbialystock]

I have an alternative theory about Sale.  

I believe tommy john surgery is regenerative.  It doesn't just fix the elbow, it makes it stronger.  

Sale had the surgery done in 2020,  when he was about 31.  In 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, he had a total of 31 starts and 150 IP, most of which occurred last year with 20 starts and 103 IP.  

So my thinking is that it was/is a mistake to think of Sale as a 35 year old pitcher who is also frail and unreliable.  He just had a bad elbow, which came out of the surgery better than ever.  However, his recovery and other injuries, including one on the dadgum bike, delayed his return to the mound.  When he finally did for real last season, he had some ups and downs, but he finished pretty well.  Plus he's Chris freaking Sale, one of  the most professional pitchers I've ever seen.  He has terrific command of his pitches and is completely focused when he is on the mound--and that means playing defense as well. 

 I think the Sox, what with all the turnover in the front office (from DD to CB to Breslow), simply forgot who and what they had.  Plus they assumed the 35 years applied to his arm/elbow, which it clearly does not. 

Also, one more time to all the Breslow apologists:  the Braves, another team from the other League, for crying out loud, saw Sale's potential when the Sox didn't--on top of which the Sox gladly shelled out $17M to the Braves/Sale to "sweeten" giving away a candidate for the Cy Young this year.  

 

[Old Red]

9 minutes ago, notin said:

I doubt Atlanta thought he was no risk at all.   There’s been talk about the risk of injury on Sale since he was drafted.  And probably before…

No matter how you want to look at it on the Braves part whether it was a hunch, a guess, an opinion, or just no worry at all the Braves came out on top, and Brez, and the Red Sox drew the short straw, and are coming out as BIG losers in all this. 

[notin]

3 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I have an alternative theory about Sale.  

I believe tommy john surgery is regenerative.  It doesn't just fix the elbow, it makes it stronger.  

Sale had the surgery done in 2020,  when he was about 31.  In 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, he had a total of 31 starts and 150 IP, most of which occurred last year with 20 starts and 103 IP.  

So my thinking is that it was/is a mistake to think of Sale as a 35 year old pitcher who is also frail and unreliable.  He just had a bad elbow, which came out of the surgery better than ever.  However, his recovery and other injuries, including one on the dadgum bike, delayed his return to the mound.  When he finally did for real last season, he had some ups and downs, but he finished pretty well.  Plus he's Chris freaking Sale, one of  the most professional pitchers I've ever seen.  He has terrific command of his pitches and is completely focused when he is on the mound--and that means playing defense as well. 

 I think the Sox, what with all the turnover in the front office (from DD to CB to Breslow), simply forgot who and what they had.  Plus they assumed the 35 years applied to his arm/elbow, which it clearly does not. 

Also, one more time to all the Breslow apologists:  the Braves, another team from the other League, for crying out loud, saw Sale's potential when the Sox didn't--on top of which the Sox gladly shelled out $17M to the Braves/Sale to "sweeten" giving away a candidate for the Cy Young this year.  

 

Tommy John surgery does NOT strengthen the elbow beyond its original strength, much to the dismay of all those middle school baseball parents who elected to have their sons have the procedure unnecessarily in order to get better radar gun readings and in turn scholarships and/or signing bonuses.  This was a real medical issue in the early 2000s…

[notin]

12 minutes ago, Old Red said:

No matter how you want to look at it on the Braves part whether it was a hunch, a guess, an opinion, or just no worry at all the Braves came out on top, and Brez, and the Red Sox drew the short straw, and are coming out as BIG losers in all this. 

You do realize no one thinks the Sox did well in this trade.  Not even Breslow.  But did it make sense at the time? You remember, back when you said you were not sorry to see Sale go, you just wish the Sox also didn’t post $17mill?

[notin]

19 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I have an alternative theory about Sale.  

I believe tommy john surgery is regenerative.  It doesn't just fix the elbow, it makes it stronger.  

Sale had the surgery done in 2020,  when he was about 31.  In 2020, 2021, 2022, and 2023, he had a total of 31 starts and 150 IP, most of which occurred last year with 20 starts and 103 IP.  

So my thinking is that it was/is a mistake to think of Sale as a 35 year old pitcher who is also frail and unreliable.  He just had a bad elbow, which came out of the surgery better than ever.  However, his recovery and other injuries, including one on the dadgum bike, delayed his return to the mound.  When he finally did for real last season, he had some ups and downs, but he finished pretty well.  Plus he's Chris freaking Sale, one of  the most professional pitchers I've ever seen.  He has terrific command of his pitches and is completely focused when he is on the mound--and that means playing defense as well. 

 I think the Sox, what with all the turnover in the front office (from DD to CB to Breslow), simply forgot who and what they had.  Plus they assumed the 35 years applied to his arm/elbow, which it clearly does not. 

Also, one more time to all the Breslow apologists:  the Braves, another team from the other League, for crying out loud, saw Sale's potential when the Sox didn't--on top of which the Sox gladly shelled out $17M to the Braves/Sale to "sweeten" giving away a candidate for the Cy Young this year.  

 

Not to mention, his TJ was over 4 years ago.  Most of us on this board aren’t doctors, but we’ve all seen enough pitchers recover from the surgery so that we have a solid grasp of the timeline…

[Maxbialystock]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

Well that’s a misinterpretation of everything I’ve said.

Theres a massive difference between predicting injuries and expecting injuries.  And if a player was injured and missed all of 2020, and then got injured and missed most of 2021.  And 2022.  And 2023.  Are the Sox supposed to think he’s clear for 2024?

And you made.a point once about Casas’ recovery from pulling a muscle swinging a bat, and how it didn’t bode well for his recovery. Well, Sale once cracked a rib throwing a pitch.  But that gets overlooked?

 2018, when Sale's IP dropped from 214 in 2017 to 158 in 2018, was the first sign Sale had a bad elbow.  2019 simply confirmed it.  2020 was the surgery to fix it, but with a mandatory recovery period of what seems like centuries.  I think the cracked rib was in 2021, and the bicycle wreck in 2022.  

The point is that 2023 was the first season since the surgery when the elbow was really tested.  And my version of the test is that Sale did better than the Sox gave him credit for--and that the Braves saw what the Sox did not. 

Besides, the proof is in the pudding.  Sale's pitched more innings this year, 161, than he did in 2018 (158 IP), and his ERA is 2.46.   

Thanks for the reminder on Casas.  I was almost positive he was a goner.  But I'm 84, so what do I know?  My point in all this is not that I am smarter than the Sox, because that is impossible.  My point is that the Braves are smarter than the Sox, and I think that's irrefutable.   Do I also need to drag out Giolito, yet again?  

How about David Price, whom DD signed for $217M for 7 seasons ($31M/season), which turned out to be $217M for 4 seasons--and maybe just 2 good seasons?  

[Old Red]

5 minutes ago, notin said:

You do realize no one thinks the Sox did well in this trade.  Not even Breslow.  But did it make sense at the time? You remember, back when you said you were not sorry to see Sale go, you just wish the Sox also didn’t post $17mill?

Making sense at the time does not change the outcome now. The old woulda, shoulda, coulda. I know what I said at the time of the trade, but once again that doesn’t change the outcome of the trade, and that’s what matters most IMO.

[notin]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

Making sense at the time does not change the outcome now. The old woulda, shoulda, coulda. I know what I said at the time of the trade, but once again that doesn’t change the outcome of the trade, and that’s what matters most IMO.

Nobody ever said it would.

The outcome matters, but so does the process that gets you there.  After all, the same people who made that decision will make future ones.  I’d rather have a CBO whose unlucky than stupid.

[notin]

8 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

 2018, when Sale's IP dropped from 214 in 2017 to 158 in 2018, was the first sign Sale had a bad elbow.  2019 simply confirmed it.  2020 was the surgery to fix it, but with a mandatory recovery period of what seems like centuries.  I think the cracked rib was in 2021, and the bicycle wreck in 2022.  

The point is that 2023 was the first season since the surgery when the elbow was really tested.  And my version of the test is that Sale did better than the Sox gave him credit for--and that the Braves saw what the Sox did not. 

Besides, the proof is in the pudding.  Sale's pitched more innings this year, 161, than he did in 2018 (158 IP), and his ERA is 2.46.   

Thanks for the reminder on Casas.  I was almost positive he was a goner.  But I'm 84, so what do I know?  My point in all this is not that I am smarter than the Sox, because that is impossible.  My point is that the Braves are smarter than the Sox, and I think that's irrefutable.   Do I also need to drag out Giolito, yet again?  

How about David Price, whom DD signed for $217M for 7 seasons ($31M/season), which turned out to be $217M for 4 seasons--and maybe just 2 good seasons?  

I hated the Price signing before the ink was dry.

It turned out to be more like $174 mill for 2 seasons and some change.  LA picked up some of the tab…

[Maxbialystock]

27 minutes ago, notin said:

Tommy John surgery does NOT strengthen the elbow beyond its original strength, much to the dismay of all those middle school baseball parents who elected to have their sons have the procedure unnecessarily in order to get better radar gun readings and in turn scholarships and/or signing bonuses.  This was a real medical issue in the early 2000s…

I would love to disagree, but am positive you are better informed. 

So, fine, his elbow was simply brought back to snuff, average, whatever.  But snuff for Sale was/is better than for most other pitchers.  Again I must assert that Chris Sale is more determined and more professional and more skillful than 90% of MLB pitchers.  

For evidence of that, we need only look at the current MLB individual pitcher stats.  Chris Sale's WAR is 5.5, 3d best in MLB.  His ERA of 2.46 is ranked first. 

FWIW, in 2014, 10 years ago, his ERA was 2.17, 3d best in MLB, and his WAR was 6.6, tied for 4th.  In 2017, his first year with the Sox, his ERA was 2.90 and 7th in MLB, and his WAR, 6.0, was tied for 6th.  In 2018, his ERA, 2.11, was not ranked because he didn't pitch enough innings, but his WAR, 6.9, was 6th best.  

[notin]

48 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

I would love to disagree, but am positive you are better informed. 

So, fine, his elbow was simply brought back to snuff, average, whatever.  But snuff for Sale was/is better than for most other pitchers.  Again I must assert that Chris Sale is more determined and more professional and more skillful than 90% of MLB pitchers.  

For evidence of that, we need only look at the current MLB individual pitcher stats.  Chris Sale's WAR is 5.5, 3d best in MLB.  His ERA of 2.46 is ranked first. 

FWIW, in 2014, 10 years ago, his ERA was 2.17, 3d best in MLB, and his WAR was 6.6, tied for 4th.  In 2017, his first year with the Sox, his ERA was 2.90 and 7th in MLB, and his WAR, 6.0, was tied for 6th.  In 2018, his ERA, 2.11, was not ranked because he didn't pitch enough innings, but his WAR, 6.9, was 6th best.  

Sale is a lock for Comeback Player of the Year.  If he doesn’t win the award, then they need to stop giving it because they clearly don’t know what they’re doing.  But this comeback is unprecedented in MLB history.  That you have to go back 7 years to see a season like this from him, and to do so at age 35.  No one has ever done that.  And I doubt the Braves expected him to be THIS good.

I’m far from a medical expert, but my daughter did a project for school on the trend of high schoolers getting TJ in order to increase their velocity, and the universal medical opinion was, it’s a sham.  The procedure can restore your elbow, but it doesn’t increase your velocity from your starting point…

[moonslav59]

Sale is a lock to win the Cy Young Award.

Could Houck win the AL Comeback Player Award?

If Duran wasn't pretty good, last year, he could have won it.

[Bellhorn04]

17 hours ago, notin said:

No.  I believe the front office considered Sale a high, possibly very high risk for more missed time.  And at $27mill, it was too much for them to simply replace him.  As the most significant injury, that made him most likely to be the dead money on the roster.  
 

And most of us felt this way, too, if you go back and read the early posts on this thread.  Then Sale showed up healthy and suddenly the cries were “why did we trade him?”  And “past injuries can’t predict future ones.”  That’s the logic that keeps putting Whitlock in the rotation every year.

The trade has turned out disastrous for the Sox.  Some of us just remember how it looked in December…

 

 

I did go back and look at the early posts in this thread and re-posted a sample of them.  They showed a very mixed reaction to the trade.  Old school types like jad, iortiz, cp176 and a700 absolutely hated it!

My initial reaction was positive but after a couple of days of thinking about it I amended to say the trade would look very questionable if they did nothing more than sign Giolito.

My big problem with their approach to the 2024 rotation is really not that much different from yours, we only differ on the particulars.  You have excoriated them for not doing anything to replace Giolito when he went down.  I'm excoriating them for trading Sale when we had such a desperate need for starting pitching and clearly had no intention to do much about it..

I think some hindsight is fair in evaluating this trade not because of Sale's shockingly good health and performance, but because of the overall negligence of the rotation that we saw.  That negligence basically nullified any sense this trade might have made in isolation IMHO.

 

     

[notin]

52 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

I did go back and look at the early posts in this thread and re-posted a sample of them.  They showed a very mixed reaction to the trade.  Old school types like jad, iortiz, cp176 and a700 absolutely hated it!

My initial reaction was positive but after a couple of days of thinking about it I amended to say the trade would look very questionable if they did nothing more than sign Giolito.

My big problem with their approach to the 2024 rotation is really not that much different from yours, we only differ on the particulars.  You have excoriated them for not doing anything to replace Giolito when he went down.  I'm excoriating them for trading Sale when we had such a desperate need for starting pitching and clearly had no intention to do much about it..

I think some hindsight is fair in evaluating this trade not because of Sale's shockingly good health and performance, but because of the overall negligence of the rotation that we saw.  That negligence basically nullified any sense this trade might have made in isolation IMHO.

 

     

All I said about this trade is it made sense at the time.  I hated that they at a minimum they did nothing to replace Giolito (I was more on board with Houck/Bello/Crawford than most, and still am).   I also didn’t like that they did no minor league depth signings beyond some guy named Criswell.

Now in hindsight, the trade was a disaster.  That’s not exclusive from whether or not it made sense at the time.  It made sense and it still bombed.  Yes, they needed pitching.  Sale was doing a poor job at providing it for 4 years at that point.  I get moving on and looking elsewhere.

Last year after the deadline, there was a story about Bloom receiving offers on Sale the previous summer, and declining them. I’m guessing they were from a Atlanta. The alleged offers were for Sale’s whole contract and nothing in return.  A lot of people were mad at Bloom for not taking that offer.  Would that really have been better?

I would have liked more pitching even before the Giolito injury.  And certainly after it.  But that doesn’t mean Sale was a logical choice there any more than acquiring deGrom from Texas would be.  They had options and did nothing.  That’s a big problem.  Not whether or not Sale pitched.  Because will we see this passive approach again?

[Bellhorn04]

I could be wrong but I thought the earlier offer for Sale came from Texas.

I wasn't one of the people who was mad at Bloom for not doing it.  I supported him on that.  I've pretty much been a Sale Pollyanna all along.