Chris Sale traded to Braves

[notin]

56 minutes ago, TheSplinteredSplendor said:

David Price and Gerrit Cole didn't have any injury history until they did.

While it was far from inevitable, Price was 31 years old with a long history of pitching high IP when he signed a 7 year deal, so injuries were certainly not a long shot.

 

My hope was he would pitch 3 years injury-free and opt out.  His physical issues unfortunately started in year two…

[moonslav59]

IMO, the Braves knew no more than the Sox, and maybe even less.

They took a flyer on Sale and gave up a duplicated value player who had no place to play.

They guessed right. We guessed wrong.

We rolled the dice 4-5 years in a row and came up short. They rolled the dice and hit bigtime on year one.

What made things go from terrible to horrific was Grissom's failure and Gio's season ending injury.

[notin]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

IMO, the Braves knew no more than the Sox, and maybe even less.

They took a flyer on Sale and gave up a duplicated value player who had no place to play.

They guessed right. We guessed wrong.

We rolled the dice 4-5 years in a row and came up short. They rolled the dice and hit bigtime on year one.

What made things go from terrible to horrific was Grissom's failure and Gio's season ending injury.

A typical year from Giolito very likely saves the Sox bullpen enough to eke into the postseason.  The only plus to this whole situation was the revelation that Cooper Criswell might not be that bad…

[moonslav59]

Just now, notin said:

While it was far from inevitable, Price was 31 years old with a long history of pitching high IP when he signed a 7 year deal, so injuries were certainly not a long shot.

 

My hope was he would pitch 3 years injury-free and opt out.  His physical issues unfortunately started in year two…

I can see this reasoning, but the worst part is, he never recovered from the injury, enough to come near his former glory. 

Who are the "least (injury) risky" FA SP'ers on the market, this winter?

I'm wondering if a guy like Flaherty, with not a ton of IP over his career, but 28-29 GS'd the last 2 years and who just turns 29, next week. I realize he is not the "ace" many of us crave, but maybe he can be a solid #2/3 type guy. (3.89 FIP '23-'24 and 10K/9, but 3 BB/9)

I will say, it doesn't make me feel any better than we signed a durable guy like Gio, last winter, only to see him with no starts, but I applaud the effort. (I had concerns about just how good Gio was, more than any injury worry.)

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

A typical year from Giolito very likely saves the Sox bullpen enough to eke into the postseason.  The only plus to this whole situation was the revelation that Cooper Criswell might not be that bad…

I almost just posted the same exact thought. Even if Gio had an ERA of 4.30, if he gave us 180+ IP, we might have made the dance. Criswell would have gotten way more pen IP, over guys like Chase Anderson and Uwasawa,

[notin]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I can see this reasoning, but the worst part is, he never recovered from the injury, enough to come near his former glory. 

Who are the "least (injury) risky" FA SP'ers on the market, this winter?

I'm wondering if a guy like Flaherty, with not a ton of IP over his career, but 28-29 GS'd the last 2 years and who just turns 29, next week. I realize he is not the "ace" many of us crave, but maybe he can be a solid #2/3 type guy. (3.89 FIP '23-'24 and 10K/9, but 3 BB/9)

I will say, it doesn't make me feel any better than we signed a durable guy like Gio, last winter, only to see him with no starts, but I applaud the effort. (I had concerns about just how good Gio was, more than any injury worry.)

If you asked me a year ago who was the lowest injury risk, i probably would have said Giolito.  
 

I prefer pitchers without recent significant injury issues.  But at some point, nothing ruins a pitcher more than pitching.  And the pitchers who rack up IP year after year can and will eventually have problems. 
 

That’s a big reason why I prefer trading for starters.  Contracts (or remaining contracts) are often much less than what it takes to sign a player…

[Bellhorn04]

29 minutes ago, notin said:

This new format makes it difficult to go back and find posts.  Also, no post numbers.  
 

But on August 22, for example, Max posted;

 

“That's what the Breslow defenders refuse to acknowledge--that the Braves knew more about Sale than the Sox did--including Breslow, JH, the rest of the front office, and probably even Cora. Sale was also smarter than the Sox because he insisted on at least one more season after this, which the Braves agreed to. The Braves also have an option on a third season in 2026,”

 

He was far from alone in that sentiment…

OK, well, Max tends to say some things that are "not in evidence", as we touched on recently with his "Dombrowski wanted to keep Betts from the Dodgers" comments.  I don't know about the other people you're referencing.

No one can honestly claim that the Braves knew anything about Sale that the Red Sox didn't.  I assume they did know more than us because they had access to Sale's medical records, but that's about it.

 

  

[notin]

Just now, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, well, Max tends to say some things that are "not in evidence", as we touched on recently with his "Dombrowski wanted to keep Betts from the Dodgers" comments.  I don't know about the other people you're referencing.

No one can honestly claim that the Braves knew anything about Sale that the Red Sox didn't.  I assume they did know more than us because they had access to Sale's medical records, but that's about it.

 

  

Others did throw that around, basically any time I said the Braves were rolling the dice.  Some even thought the extension clinched it, and it wasn’tSale exercising his 10/5 rights. (No proof, but we all know how that works.) To me, saying the Braves “knew more” is an odd defense, because it means you’re accusing the Braves of tampering…

[Bellhorn04]

4 minutes ago, notin said:

Others did throw that around, basically any time I said the Braves were rolling the dice.  Some even thought the extension clinched it, and it wasn’tSale exercising his 10/5 rights. (No proof, but we all know how that works.) To me, saying the Braves “knew more” is an odd defense, because it means you’re accusing the Braves of tampering…

What could they possibly know? 

[Old Red]

7 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

OK, well, Max tends to say some things that are "not in evidence", as we touched on recently with his "Dombrowski wanted to keep Betts from the Dodgers" comments.  I don't know about the other people you're referencing.

No one can honestly claim that the Braves knew anything about Sale that the Red Sox didn't.  I assume they did know more than us because they had access to Sale's medical records, but that's about it.

 

  

All Sale needed was to get out of his bad Ju Ju in Boston. I said at the time of the trade I thought Sale would stay healthy, and have a good year with the Braves, which is a better team. Sale got hit with a batted ball, and fell off his bike, so it wasn’t arm related. I think the Braves didn’t see it as any kind of big risk at all especially when they got Brez to pay $17M of his contract. What a deal for the Braves, and it’s really not all that hard to figure all this out.

[Old Red]

17 minutes ago, notin said:

If you asked me a year ago who was the lowest injury risk, i probably would have said Giolito.  
 

I prefer pitchers without recent significant injury issues.  But at some point, nothing ruins a pitcher more than pitching.  And the pitchers who rack up IP year after year can and will eventually have problems. 
 

That’s a big reason why I prefer trading for starters.  Contracts (or remaining contracts) are often much less than what it takes to sign a player…

Gio was just a HR Derby pitcher in 2023. No risk at all.🤭🙈

[moonslav59]

14 minutes ago, notin said:

If you asked me a year ago who was the lowest injury risk, i probably would have said Giolito.  
 

I prefer pitchers without recent significant injury issues.  But at some point, nothing ruins a pitcher more than pitching.  And the pitchers who rack up IP year after year can and will eventually have problems. 
 

That’s a big reason why I prefer trading for starters.  Contracts (or remaining contracts) are often much less than what it takes to sign a player…

I'm all for trading for a SP'er, and there is a better chance of getting a younger one, which normally means less chance of injury or already pitching 180 innings for 5-6 years.

I also agree on signing RP'ers as FAs.

[Bellhorn04]

3 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Gio was just a HR Derby pitcher in 2023. No risk at all.🤭🙈

He was a reclamation project and a pretty pricey one at that.

Horrible, horrible work on the rotation it was.

They kind of deserved what they got.

[Old Red]

2 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

He was a reclamation project and a pretty pricey one at that.

Horrible, horrible work on the rotation it was.

They kind of deserved what they got.

Gio was definitely a lot more pricey than the usual ones they get.

[mvp 78]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

There are none, but are you trying to make the point that adding pitchers like deGrom, Kluber, Richards, Paxton, Hendriks, Paxton II, Wacha and Hill are on the same level as adding pitchers with little or no injury history?

Nobody is making that case. It's just cheaper to acquire deGrom than a guy with no injury history. Also, deGrom is probably much more likely to have a bounce back season than Kluber, Richards, Paxton, Wacha or Hill IMO.

[notin]

29 minutes ago, Bellhorn04 said:

What could they possibly know? 

If they weren’t tampering, very little more than any of us knew.  I doubt anyone was dazzled by his post-shoulder injury 40 IP stretch to end the season.

But for some, hindsight is adequate evidence…

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Nobody is making that case. It's just cheaper to acquire deGrom than a guy with no injury history. Also, deGrom is probably much more likely to have a bounce back season than Kluber, Richards, Paxton, Wacha or Hill IMO.

deGrom was not "cheap," but your point is valid. Had Kluber been healthy for 2-3 years, he'd have gotten more than $10M/1.

I am totally aware of why we signed them and why they were cheaper than healthy pitchers.

I'm just sick of this being our only strategy, and now we are doing it for RP'ers, like hendriks and Fulmer.

Someday, maybe we strike gold. We ended up doing okay with Wacha, although he missed time, when we needed him most.

Even the Sale and Nate deals were injury-risk deals.

The Price and porcello deals seem like the last ones we gave to "healthy" pitchers, although both had maxed out their IP totals for several years, beforehand. Porcello started maxing our IP'd at a very early age.

It's not about misunderstanding why injury prone pitchers are cheaper: it's about me being sick and tired of that being our only strategy. Many of us were fine with the Kluber signing, as long as it wasn't the only SP'er addition we made. Same with the Richards and Paxton deals.

It seems like this was our only strategy until the Gio signing. I fully realize it was a byproduct of tight budgets imposed by JH.

[notin]

26 minutes ago, Old Red said:

All Sale needed was to get out of his bad Ju Ju in Boston. I said at the time of the trade I thought Sale would stay healthy, and have a good year with the Braves, which is a better team. Sale got hit with a batted ball, and fell off his bike, so it wasn’t arm related. I think the Braves didn’t see it as any kind of big risk at all especially when they got Brez to pay $17M of his contract. What a deal for the Braves, and it’s really not all that hard to figure all this out.

Hey Bellhorn, here’s another one who says the Braves knew something.

 

Thanks for timing this post.  Going through the archives in this format is difficult…

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

deGrom was not "cheap," but your point is valid. Had Kluber been healthy for 2-3 years, he'd have gotten more than $10M/1.

I am totally aware of why we signed them and why they were cheaper than healthy pitchers.

I'm just sick of this being our only strategy, and now we are doing it for RP'ers, like hendriks and Fulmer.

Someday, maybe we strike gold. We ended up doing okay with Wacha, although he missed time, when we needed him most.

Even the Sale and Nate deals were injury-risk deals.

The Price and porcello deals seem like the last ones we gave to "healthy" pitchers, although both had maxed out their IP totals for several years, beforehand. Porcello started maxing our IP'd at a very early age.

It's not about misunderstanding why injury prone pitchers are cheaper: it's about me being sick and tired of that being our only strategy. Many of us were fine with the Kluber signing, as long as it wasn't the only SP'er addition we made. Same with the Richards and Paxton deals.

It seems like this was our only strategy until the Gio signing. I fully realize it was a byproduct of tight budgets imposed by JH.

This was Bloom's strategy. Breslow operates under a completely different strategy as you've noted above. Maybe see what he moves forward with before flipping your lid. I highly doubt he trades for deGrom. I think he wants to acquire a young controllable starter who they can develop into an ace, someone a tier above Priester. 

[mvp 78]

Braves didn't know s***. They just had some financial ability to absorb Sale's contract and knew his upside could push them over the top into the upper echelon of teams considering their injury issues with starters. If it didn't work out, it wasn't going to tank them as they have lots of depth starters and could still be relatively competitive. Sale was a lottery ticket and it worked out this year.

[mvp 78]

🤷‍♀️

[Old Red]

10 minutes ago, notin said:

Hey Bellhorn, here’s another one who says the Braves knew something.

 

Thanks for timing this post.  Going through the archives in this format is difficult…

Where does it say that the Braves knew something? It was more that the Red Sox thought they knew something, and obviously they didn’t" They were so sure of themselves they paid the Braves $17M, and also paid Gio $18M, so obviously they didn’t know anything there either except they knew Gio liked giving up the long ball. To say the Braves didn’t see any big risk in trading for Sale is a long way from saying they knew something. The Braves were interested in Sale the year before, so it wasn’t an all of a sudden realization the Braves had some inside info. NNN strikes again, and comes up empty.🙈🤭

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

This was Bloom's strategy. Breslow operates under a completely different strategy as you've noted above. Maybe see what he moves forward with before flipping your lid. I highly doubt he trades for deGrom. I think he wants to acquire a young controllable starter who they can develop into an ace, someone a tier above Priester. 

Agreed, and although the Gio signing did not work, I applauded the effort to attempt to add a durable SP'er, for once. (Again, I was not high on Gio's skills, but I thought his durability was what we needed.)

I really like his other attempts at adding to the staff and farm staffs more than Bloom's attempts. Bloom hit on Pivetta and to some extent on Wink, Schreiber, Bernardino and at least Perez gave us innings, but he was supposed to be the "gem in the rough" GM.

In less than a full year, Brez has already added close to equal to 4 years of Bloom's best additions.

Slaten, Fitts, Priester, Criswell, Sandlin, Weissert, I Campbell, Judice and more pitching draftees than any Bloom draft. Some of these guys have yet to prove they are better than Bloom's additions, and a few downright sucked, this year, but I still like the I Campbell deal and think Weissert is better than some here seem to think he is.

I'm hopeful, we start to see better results from the shift in strategy, and maybe the Hendriks & Fulmer stabs in the dark end up helping us in '25. Of course, Gio will be the big determinator.  

[notin]

8 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Braves didn't know s***. They just had some financial ability to absorb Sale's contract and knew his upside could push them over the top into the upper echelon of teams considering their injury issues with starters. If it didn't work out, it wasn't going to tank them as they have lots of depth starters and could still be relatively competitive. Sale was a lottery ticket and it worked out this year.

That’s been my viewpoint all along.  But you said it more succinctly.

 

The only team that I wonder if they should have “known something” is the Sox concerning Giolito.  I don’t know when his problems started, but they certainly would explain his poor ending to 2023.  Was that unrelated?  Did they see something and decide it was inconsequential?  Or “we see that tear all the time?”  

[Old Red]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Braves didn't know s***. They just had some financial ability to absorb Sale's contract and knew his upside could push them over the top into the upper echelon of teams considering their injury issues with starters. If it didn't work out, it wasn't going to tank them as they have lots of depth starters and could still be relatively competitive. Sale was a lottery ticket and it worked out this year.

Exactly, and the Red Sox paid for that lottery ticket this year. Like I said earlier the Red Sox were the ones who thought they knew something, and as it turned out they didn’t.

[notin]

5 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Where does it say that the Braves knew something? It was more that the Red Sox thought they knew something, and obviously they didn’t" They were so sure of themselves they paid the Braves $17M, and also paid Gio $18M, so obviously they didn’t know anything there either except they knew Gio liked giving up the long ball. To say the Braves didn’t see any big risk in trading for Sale is a long way from saying they knew something. The Braves were interested in Sale the year before, so it wasn’t an all of a sudden realization the Braves had some inside info. NNN strikes again, and comes up empty.🙈🤭

A 35yo pitcher with a total of 150 IP in 4 years isn’t a risk?  

 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

A 35yo pitcher with a total of 150 IP in 4 years isn’t a risk?  

 

Especially not when the other team in this case the Red Sox are paying all his salary. A freebie this year for the Braves.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Exactly, and the Red Sox paid for that lottery ticket this year. Like I said earlier the Red Sox were the ones who thought they knew something, and as it turned out they didn’t.

I think the only thing the Sox knew was they had been paying Sale a lot of money to not pitch for a long time, and they saw an opportunity to shed that payroll and spend on a pitcher with a better track record of showing up for work.  Filling their half-decade long void at 2b certainly factored in.

The neutral third parties that do projections felt Sale was a lost cause as well.  His -$11 mill surplus value at the time suggests he was projected to be a 1 fWAR pitcher paid like a 3 fWAR pitcher.

[notin]

4 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Especially not when the other team in this case the Red Sox are paying all his salary. A freebie this year for the Braves.

As mvp suggested and others had before, they were better positioned if Sale went down.  Boston had Cooper Criswell (eventually).  Atlanta had a slew of MLB-ready pitching prospects to step in, one of whom was already an MLB All Star…

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, notin said:

I think the only thing the Sox knew was they had been paying Sale a lot of money to not pitch for a long time, and they saw an opportunity to shed that payroll and spend on a pitcher with a better track record of showing up for work.  Filling their half-decade long void at 2b certainly factored in.

The neutral third parties that do projections felt Sale was a lost cause as well.  His -$11 mill surplus value at the time suggests he was projected to be a 1 fWAR pitcher paid like a 3 fWAR pitcher.

So much for projections. Shed that payroll? I don’t call the Red Sox paying $17M out of $27.5M as really shedding payroll. Lost on Sale. Lost on Gio. Lost on Grissom. This was A total loss for the Red Sox in this situation.