A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

It’s a bold statement.

 

You are blatantly stating “I don’t see how this team was able to compete so therefore an Ivy League educated baseball career professional obviously did not expect them to as well and was only able to achieve success through luck.”

 

Maybe, just maybe, the handful of people capable of getting these jobs actually do know more about what they are doing than we do.

 

I am not basing that success on anything (except maybe the huge roster overlap with 2018).

 

The difference is I thought maybe he knew what he was doing. And let’s face it, going from winning 40% to winning 60% - all that MLB requires to go from Worst to first, simply is not a big jump…

 

I don't think we were trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021. We could have done more, and did at the deadline.

 

I don't think it is all that bold to think we purposely did not spend enough to be serious contenders for even a playoff slot.

 

We signed one guy to two year (Kike.) You don't get serious impact players for $10M/1 (Richards was the one guy at $10M) or less.

 

Come on! Richards, Kike, Marwin, Santana, Andriese, Sawamura and Renfroe?

 

These guys scream for 2022 to arrive.

 

I suppose the hope of ERod and Sale was enough to give hope, but IMO, we did next to nothing to improve our chances significantly.

 

You speak of the core from 2018: they were closer to the core from 2019, minus Betts, Price, Porcello and others.

 

To think the list of guys we signed plus Dugo, Ottavino, Pivetta and a couple other add ons was enough to improve on the non playoff team of 2019 was not enough to think it made us a playoff team is BOLD, I think we differ on what "bold" means..

[moonslav59]

Defensively they are. In fact, using OAA and RAA, Guerrero is the only 1b worse than Casas. And on those same metrics, no third basemen is worse than Devers.

 

So yes, not only is the Sox defense at these positions a weakness, it’s a league worst weakness…

 

Is 3B and 1B a higher overall need area than any other Sox positions?

 

I know the two corner IF'ers we have were worst or near worst in '23 on D. D is not everything.

 

Besides, we could also play Urias at 3B and rotate Devers/Casas at 1B/DH, if you see corner IF defense as more important that fixing the rotation and lack of a big RH's bat.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't think we were trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021. We could have done more, and did at the deadline.

 

I don't think it is all that bold to think we purposely did not spend enough to be serious contenders for even a playoff slot.

 

We signed one guy to two year (Kike.) You don't get serious impact players for $10M/1 (Richards was the one guy at $10M) or less.

 

Come on! Richards, Kike, Marwin, Santana, Andriese, Sawamura and Renfroe?

 

These guys scream for 2022 to arrive.

 

I suppose the hope of ERod and Sale was enough to give hope, but IMO, we did next to nothing to improve our chances significantly.

 

You speak of the core from 2018: they were closer to the core from 2019, minus Betts, Price, Porcello and others.

 

To think the list of guys we signed plus Dugo, Ottavino, Pivetta and a couple other add ons was enough to improve on the non playoff team of 2019 was not enough to think it made us a playoff team is BOLD, I think we differ on what "bold" means..

 

Man, we will argue about anything here LOL

[moonslav59]

Man, we will argue about anything here LOL

 

It's that time of year!

 

What else is there to talk about?

 

[notin]

I don't think we were trying to win enough to make the playoffs in 2021. We could have done more, and did at the deadline.

 

I don't think it is all that bold to think we purposely did not spend enough to be serious contenders for even a playoff slot.

 

We signed one guy to two year (Kike.) You don't get serious impact players for $10M/1 (Richards was the one guy at $10M) or less.

 

Come on! Richards, Kike, Marwin, Santana, Andriese, Sawamura and Renfroe?

 

These guys scream for 2022 to arrive.

 

I suppose the hope of ERod and Sale was enough to give hope, but IMO, we did next to nothing to improve our chances significantly.

 

You speak of the core from 2018: they were closer to the core from 2019, minus Betts, Price, Porcello and others.

 

To think the list of guys we signed plus Dugo, Ottavino, Pivetta and a couple other add ons was enough to improve on the non playoff team of 2019 was not enough to think it made us a playoff team is BOLD, I think we differ on what "bold" means..

 

The main problem against your argument is that it worked…

[notin]

Is 3B and 1B a higher overall need area than any other Sox positions?

 

I know the two corner IF'ers we have were worst or near worst in '23 on D. D is not everything.

 

Besides, we could also play Urias at 3B and rotate Devers/Casas at 1B/DH, if you see corner IF defense as more important that fixing the rotation and lack of a big RH's bat.

 

Urias is probably more likely than dropping $150mill plus on Chapman. But most likely we see the clumsy status quo at the corners and have neither Chapman nor Urias.

 

 

I mean, why is a right had need such a high need? Wouldn’t adding Story and Chapman fill that void?

[moonslav59]

The main problem against your argument is that it worked…

 

I get that.

 

What’s worse is that I thought they tried harder in 2022 and 2023 and got worse results

[moonslav59]

Urias is probably more likely than dropping $150mill plus on Chapman. But most likely we see the clumsy status quo at the corners and have neither Chapman nor Urias.

 

 

I mean, why is a right had need such a high need? Wouldn’t adding Story and Chapman fill that void?

 

Chapman would fill that need. It would also force Yoshida to LF and lessen the need to bolster the OF.

[notin]

Chapman would fill that need. It would also force Yoshida to LF and lessen the need to bolster the OF.

 

Yoshida was worth -9 OAA.

Devers was worth -9 OAA

Casas was worth -10 OAA

 

Why is everyone screaming about this urgent need to move Yoshida to DH but thinks Devers and Casas are just fine?

 

To me, the smart move is to hopefully fix two positions. But on this board consensus is Casas and Devers will just have to “get better” like it’s just a matter of 10 more minutes per day of grounders until they magically unlock some secret they never knew before. (“Ohhhh !! I can SQUEEZE the glove!!”)

 

Hey let’s use the “just get better” logic on pitchers. Screw Nola and Yamamoto. Why not have Whitlock just “get better” at starting pitching?

 

 

Not so sure the Sox outfield needs bolstering. If anything, it’s overcrowded out there…

[moonslav59]

Yoshida was worth -9 OAA.

Devers was worth -9 OAA

Casas was worth -10 OAA

 

Why is everyone screaming about this urgent need to move Yoshida to DH but thinks Devers and Casas are just fine?

 

To me, the smart move is to hopefully fix two positions. But on this board consensus is Casas and Devers will just have to “get better” like it’s just a matter of 10 more minutes per day of grounders until they magically unlock some secret they never knew before. (“Ohhhh !! I can SQUEEZE the glove!!”)

 

Hey let’s use the “just get better” logic on pitchers. Screw Nola and Yamamoto. Why not have Whitlock just “get better” at starting pitching?

 

 

Not so sure the Sox outfield needs bolstering. If anything, it’s overcrowded out there…

 

Certainly 3B defense is more important than LF. Your idea does have merit, but moving Yoshida to DH costs nothing, and we have 3 LFs to take his place

[notin]

Certainly 3B defense is more important than LF. Your idea does have merit, but moving Yoshida to DH costs nothing, and we have 3 LFs to take his place

 

Costs nothing?

 

This right-handed bat the Sox need, where will he play and is he free?

Edited October 28, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

Costs nothing?

 

This right-handed bat the Sox need, where will he play and is he free?

 

If we went with Yoshida in LF, Rafaela/Duran in CF, and Dugo/Abreu in RF, it is no added cost.

 

If we add Duvall and trade Dugo it may cost next to nothing.

 

If we add Duvall and trade Duran, it would still cost way less than Chapman.

 

I agree, improving 3B and 1B D id better than improving LF D, and Chapman fills the RHB role, well.

 

I just don't think we should spend that big of a percent of our winter budget on 3B/RHB.

 

I'd rather send Yoshida to DH, sign Duvall and use the difference in spending on a better pitcher (s.)

[Nick]

Are we now saying that in order for us to win the World Series, we'd win despite having Devers and Casas? The guy we gave $300M and the guy more likely to get a long term deal in near future?

 

We also gave a long term deal to a shortstop who hasn't played much and doesn't know the strike zone if I drew it up? Or another long term guy who hits for average but has no power and a liability in left field? So much so that instead of paying JD $10M but now we will pay $18M to fill the DH slot.

 

My head is spinning.

Edited October 28, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Are we now saying that in order for us to win the World Series, we'd win despite having Devers and Casas? The guy we gave $300M and the guy more likely to get a long term deal in near future?

 

We also gave a long term deal to a shortstop who hasn't played much and doesn't know the strike zone if I drew it up? Or another long term guy who hits for average but has no power and a liability in left field? So much so that instead of paying JD $10M but now we will pay $18M to fill the DH slot.

 

My head is spinning.

 

Like on the Exorcist?

 

Apparently, OAA has replaced fWAR as the most important stat of the day.

 

Don't get me wrong, I'd love to see us improve our corner IF defense, and moving Devers to 1B has almost always appealed to me. If Chapman costs as much as Duvall, I'd be driving notin's bandwagon, but we need funds for pitching- the more the better. (The more, the more likely we do better, is more like it.)

 

I'd almost rather have us add no RHB and spend it all on pitching, and even trade a top prospect for another pitcher than to spend over 30% of our winter budget on 3B/RHB.

 

I'd rather spend it all on pitching and play Urias at 3B 75% of the time than sign Chapman while skimping on pitching.

 

I think we can cobble together a good enough OF with Yoshida at DH:

 

LF: Duran-Refsnyder platoon (Abreu/Yoshida as depth) Should end up near or over .800

 

CF: Rafaela (Abreu/Duran as depth) The big gamble.

 

RF: Dugo or Duvall, if we trade Dugo (Abreu as depth) Most easily predictable results, here.

 

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

Point?

 

The Sox starter ERA was 4.68. The NL Champion DBacks was 4.67.

 

The DBacks starters had better fWAR, but the Sox had better xFIP.

 

And the Sox staff as a whole absolutely crushed the NL Champion DBacks in bWAR, but I can’t separate starters from relievers. Given the difference was 17.3 to 10.4, safe bet the Sox starters were better using this metric.

 

So was starting pitching what held the Sox back this year? A roughly equivalent staff is in the World Series…

 

So let me know if I have your view correct. The Sox overall pitching is good enough to get to a WS so we can stand pat with where are currently at pitching wise???

[moonslav59]

Costs nothing?

 

This right-handed bat the Sox need, where will he play and is he free?

 

You can sign any two of these guys, which two do you choose?

 

Hypothetical: same cost at a 4 year deal for all.

 

Chapman

Gray

Snell

Yamamoto

Montgomery

 

To me, any combination without Chapman is better than any with Chapman.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

So let me know if I have your view correct. The Sox overall pitching is good enough to get to a WS so we can stand pat with where are currently at pitching wise???

 

For those watching the postseason or just about any postseason, it's obvious that teams that go deep into October have at least a one-two punch at the top of the rotation.

 

Two starting pitchers of near-ace quality, taking the ball around twice each in every series, isn't rare for good teams.

 

Stat people somehow comparing staffs of the NL champs to the last-place Red Sox should stop right at the top: in Gallen and Kelly, Arizona boasts two men who made at least 30 starts and 177 IP. Boston had zero. The D-back duo has made an additional nine starts in the postseason so far...

 

Which two current Red Sox pitchers would be Game 1 and Game 2 starters in any playoff series? The only guys not hurt all the time are Bello and Pivetta... but, you know, young Bello's workload... and Pivetta is better as a bulkster, after an opener.

 

So for now, the greatest last-place club in the history of an overrated division will start Kutter Crawford and Brennan Bernardino. Ya, we're just two pitchers away...

[oldtimer]

For those watching the postseason or just about any postseason, it's obvious that teams that go deep into October have at least a one-two punch at the top of the rotation.

 

Two starting pitchers of near-ace quality, taking the ball around twice each in every series, isn't rare for good teams.

 

Stat people somehow comparing staffs of the NL champs to the last-place Red Sox should stop right at the top: in Gallen and Kelly, Arizona boasts two men who made at least 30 starts and 177 IP. Boston had zero. The D-back duo has made an additional nine starts in the postseason so far...

 

Which two current Red Sox pitchers would be Game 1 and Game 2 starters in any playoff series? The only guys not hurt all the time are Bello and Pivetta... but, you know, young Bello's workload... and Pivetta is better as a bulkster, after an opener.

 

So for now, the greatest last-place club in the history of an overrated division will start Kutter Crawford and Brennan Bernardino. Ya, we're just two pitchers away...

Interestingly, a look at the Diamondbacks makes one wonder about all the whining by Sox fans about how little JH spends to get competitive players. Somehow, the Diamondbacks have put together a very competitive team while spending a very low $119 Mil. How have they done that? Well, they have very capable people coaching and in the front office. Louvollo and Hazen come to mind. As you point out, their pitching is very solid but without having the biggest names. The do feature a very good defensive team with a lot of speed. They seem to be a determined bunch who look to get on base and are willing to run and do it effectively to get into scoring position. Getting a run or two is enough in some cases, with their pitching and defense.

 

So far they have shown themselves competitive with teams with more than double their spending budget. Does that mean I am against spending big bucks to get very competitive players? Not at all, as I would love to see a Cory Seager in a Red Sox uni for instance. What I would like is for our baseball operations to be wise enough to go after or develop players who have speed, play defense, can pitch and or hit better than some of those we currently have. I use Yoshida as a case-in-point. A decent hitter but slow and below average defensive player who we overspent for.

 

I'm optimistic that we have new key management and hope he has the talent and will be allowed to use the talent we all ready have along with moves to replace substandard talent to produce at least a competitive team in 2024. Time will tell.

[Bellhorn04]

You can sign any two of these guys, which two do you choose?

 

Hypothetical: same cost at a 4 year deal for all.

 

Chapman

Gray

Snell

Yamamoto

Montgomery

 

To me, any combination without Chapman is better than any with Chapman.

 

 

You're presenting no data as to why. This is based solely on the general premise that we need starting pitching more than anything, which I do agree with. But you'd have to do a dive into projected WAR to compare these players. I suspect Chapman's projected 2024 WAR will be a bit higher than Montgomery's, although Monty did have a higher fWAR in 2023.

[notin]

For those watching the postseason or just about any postseason, it's obvious that teams that go deep into October have at least a one-two punch at the top of the rotation.

 

Two starting pitchers of near-ace quality, taking the ball around twice each in every series, isn't rare for good teams.

 

Stat people somehow comparing staffs of the NL champs to the last-place Red Sox should stop right at the top: in Gallen and Kelly, Arizona boasts two men who made at least 30 starts and 177 IP. Boston had zero. The D-back duo has made an additional nine starts in the postseason so far...

 

Which two current Red Sox pitchers would be Game 1 and Game 2 starters in any playoff series? The only guys not hurt all the time are Bello and Pivetta... but, you know, young Bello's workload... and Pivetta is better as a bulkster, after an opener.

 

So for now, the greatest last-place club in the history of an overrated division will start Kutter Crawford and Brennan Bernardino. Ya, we're just two pitchers away...

 

 

Can you define “ace” or “ace quality”? And you can omit any effects from the weather…

[notin]

You can sign any two of these guys, which two do you choose?

 

Hypothetical: same cost at a 4 year deal for all.

 

Chapman

Gray

Snell

Yamamoto

Montgomery

 

To me, any combination without Chapman is better than any with Chapman.

 

 

That premise is loaded with assumptions. And no support.

 

I do doubt the Sox sign Chapman, but that didn’t mean the defense is fine.

 

Do you think of Team ERA as a measure of pitching? Or does it really look at pitching plus defense?

[Bellhorn04]

Can you define “ace” or “ace quality”? And you can omit any effects from the weather…

 

Gallen 2023 fWAR 5.2

Kelly 2023 fWAR 3.2

 

Conclusion:

 

Gallen pitched at ace or near-ace level this year.

Kelly pitched like a solid #2.

 

My personal, informal definition of "ace", which is sort of meant to be funny but might also be perfectly accurate, is that the fan consensus definition of "ace" is a guy who is either a lock for the Hall of Fame or looks like they're on a Hall of Fame track. Most pitchers that everyone calls an ace are in the Hall of Fame or on their way there.

[notin]

Gallen 2023 fWAR 5.2

Kelly 2023 fWAR 3.2

 

Conclusion:

 

Gallen pitched at ace or near-ace level this year.

Kelly pitched like a solid #2.

 

My personal, informal definition of "ace", which is sort of meant to be funny but might also be perfectly accurate, is that the fan consensus definition of "ace" is a guy who is either a lock for the Hall of Fame or looks like they're on a Hall of Fame track. Most pitchers that everyone calls an ace are in the Hall of Fame or on their way there.

 

 

It bothers 5Gold that statistically the DBacks pitching isn’t any different than the Sox pitching.

 

Now if Bloom had brought in KBO veteran Merrill Kelly, who before the season was a 3.96 ERA/4.01FIP/107ERA+ pitcher, what label would we apply to that acquisition - ace caliber or dumpster dive?

 

And Kelly, who was already 31 when the DBacks signed him, didn’t even have those qualifications yet.

 

Also why do we judge the AL East solely by their postseason record but Zac Gallen gets judged solely by his regular season? People who have been following the postseason might have noticed Gallen has been getting hit hard.

 

I’m really not sure why there is a struggle to believe the DBacks pitching is not much better than Boston’s. Not like their W-L record was all that much better. And their run differential was actually worse.

 

You’d think a team with two “ace caliber” pitchers could at least get a better Pythagorean W-L record than 80-82. Even the ace-less Red Sox did…

Edited October 29, 2023 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

It bothers 5Gold that statistically the DBacks pitching isn’t any different than the Sox pitching.

 

Now if Bloom had brought in KBO veteran Merrill Kelly, who before the season was a 3.96 ERA/4.01FIP/107ERA+ pitcher, what label would we apply to that acquisition - ace caliber or dumpster dive?

 

And Kelly, who was already 31 when the DBacks signed him, didn’t even have those qualifications yet.

 

Also why do we judge the AL East solely by their postseason record but Zac Gallen gets judged solely by his regular season? People who have been following the postseason might have noticed Gallen has been getting hit hard.

 

I’m really not sure why there is a struggle to believe the DBacks pitching is not much better than Boston’s. Not like their W-L record was all that much better…

 

The 2023 regular season DBacks were not much better than the 2023 regular season Red Sox except in the W-L record.

 

The 2023 DBacks highlight the magnification of the crapshoot factor that has resulted from the expansion of the field to 12.

 

Any discussion of the DBacks has to be put in that context.

 

As it pertains to the Red Sox going forward, the question is do you try to put together a team that has a shot at 85 wins and the big crapshoot, or do you aim a little higher to give yourself more of a margin for error? Because there's no guarantee 85 wins will get you in, even if an 84 win, -15 run differential team is your 2023 champs.

[Randy Red Sox]

You can sign any two of these guys, which two do you choose?

 

Hypothetical: same cost at a 4 year deal for all.

 

Chapman

Gray

Snell

Yamamoto

Montgomery

 

To me, any combination without Chapman is better than any with Chapman.

 

 

Yamamoto

Snell

[Randy Red Sox]

That premise is loaded with assumptions. And no support.

 

I do doubt the Sox sign Chapman, but that didn’t mean the defense is fine.

 

Do you think of Team ERA as a measure of pitching? Or does it really look at pitching plus defense?

 

Signing Chapman is a complete waste of $$$. Like it or not we are stuck with Devers at 3B for the foreseeable future.

[Randy Red Sox]

Point?

 

The Sox starter ERA was 4.68. The NL Champion DBacks was 4.67.

 

The DBacks starters had better fWAR, but the Sox had better xFIP.

 

And the Sox staff as a whole absolutely crushed the NL Champion DBacks in bWAR, but I can’t separate starters from relievers. Given the difference was 17.3 to 10.4, safe bet the Sox starters were better using this metric.

 

So was starting pitching what held the Sox back this year? A roughly equivalent staff is in the World Series…

 

still awaiting a reply to my followup post to this thread

[Bellhorn04]

still awaiting a reply to my followup post to this thread

 

I can answer for notin. He wants a starting pitcher in the Sonny Gray price range and he wants Chapman. He's open to trading Duran + for a pitcher. He thinks mega-expensive free agent pitchers are a horrible investment.

[Old Red]

I can answer for notin. He wants a starting pitcher in the Sonny Gray price range and he wants Chapman. He's open to trading Duran + for a pitcher. He thinks mega-expensive free agent pitchers are a horrible investment.

 

Chapman is NOTHING, but a pipe dream like it was with him, and Gallo, and he liked the JBJ trade.🙈

[Bellhorn04]

Yamamoto

Snell

 

I think it's extremely unlikely we sign the top two targets. If we get one of Yamamoto, Snell or Nola we'll be doing well.