A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

When you look at the FA list, I have a feeling that any second SP the Sox get is going to look more and more like a 3 or 4. Flaherty had the 8th highest fWAR of the available FA's. If the Sox nab Yamamoto, it means they'll be out on Snell, Nola, Montgomery, Gray and Ohtani. That puts them into the Kyle Gibson/Jack Flaherty tier for he next pitcher.

 

If they push the $70M winter budget, they can get 2 top SP'er.

 

They could also trade for someone like Burnes and sign Yamamoto. That would leave enough money to sign Duvall and a LH RP'er sand maybe some MI depth.

[mvp 78]

If they push the $70M winter budget, they can get 2 top SP'er.

 

They could also trade for someone like Burnes and sign Yamamoto. That would leave enough money to sign Duvall and a LH RP'er sand maybe some MI depth.

 

Not sure the Brewers are going to deal Burnes now that Woodruff is out.

[moonslav59]

Not sure the Brewers are going to deal Burnes now that Woodruff is out.

 

Less likely, but the right offer might get him.

 

Maybe MIA trades someone good.

 

Maybe CLE.

[notin]

Would you prefer Rosario to urias, or would you keep both- spending over $10M on the combo?

 

I think I'd rather spend $5M on a LH RP'er and let Joely walk.

 

I don’t even think you get Rosario for $10mill…

[notin]

Not sure the Brewers are going to deal Burnes now that Woodruff is out.

 

Actually they might be more likely. Why keep him now for his one final year?

[moonslav59]

Actually they might be more likely. Why keep him now for his one final year?

 

They hav4e a few player who will need to be extended in the next 1-2 years. They can afford some, but not all.

 

Make the right offer, and they would likely trade Burnes or Adames.

[mvp 78]

I don’t even think you get Rosario for $10mill…

 

Rosario made 8M last season and only had 0.2 fWAR. He can no longer reliably field SS. I don't see him getting a raise.

[moonslav59]

I don’t even think you get Rosario for $10mill…

 

Agreed, and MI help is like 5th or 6th on my priority list, unless he also fills the big RHB priority I have at #3.

[notin]

Rosario made 8M last season and only had 0.2 fWAR. He can no longer reliably field SS. I don't see him getting a raise.

 

He is helped by the absolute death of shortstops of the free agent market. And he was a 4 fWAR player not long ago…

[mvp 78]

He is helped by the absolute death of shortstops of the free agent market. And he was a 4 fWAR player not long ago…

 

-16 DRS, -14 OAA which are both worse than Kiké at SS last year.

[notin]

-16 DRS, -14 OAA which are both worse than Kiké at SS last year.

 

First off, apparently Rosario was never a 4 fWAR player. My bad. I misremembered.

 

But he was a 2.7 fWAR player in 2022 and 2.5 fWAR in 2021. Some teams will be turned off by his lackluster 2023, but others might look at more of his recent seasons.

 

He is helped by the lack of free agent shortstops. I think he will do better than $5mill. And if that’s the Sox limit at 2b, simply keeping Urias makes more sense…

[moonslav59]

-16 DRS, -14 OAA which are both worse than Kiké at SS last year.

 

He did play 300 more innings than Kike to squeak by him -14 to -13, but we don't need a crappy SS.

 

Odds are he'd be okay at 2B, but I'm not sure he's all that much better than Urias.

 

If 2021 to 2022 is the time period of worth:

fWAR

5.2 Rosario

4.4 Urias

 

OPS

.766 Urias

.722 Rosario

[Nick]

This fan base was willing to give Christian Arroyo a starting spot at 2B. Not sure what all the commotion is about, isn't Reyes capable defensive 2B?

 

Everything else other than acquiring starting pitching is meaningless.

[Nick]

Kike has made me blow up twice on this forum. First was Cora's insistence that he lead off. After getting demoted finally, he reestablished his offense enough to regain his leadoff spot. (ie, he earned it, not given to him)

 

Then the fiasco at short on top of not hitting.

 

I finally have a peace of mind. I hated everything about Cora when Kike was around the last two years.

[moonslav59]

It's interesting to note, Cora once called Kike the best defensive 2Bman in MLB, then moved him to CF.

 

Once Kike established himself as one of the best defensive CF'ers in MLB, he moved him to SS.

 

Once Kike established himself as one of the worst defensive SSs in memory, he moved him to LA.

[notin]

This fan base was willing to give Christian Arroyo a starting spot at 2B. Not sure what all the commotion is about, isn't Reyes capable defensive 2B?

 

Everything else other than acquiring starting pitching is meaningless.

 

Reyes really isn’t an everyday player. And just because Tori n need starting pitching didn’t mean ask other positions should absolutely, positively be 100% ignored this off-season.

 

The Sox pitching wasn’t any worse than Arizona’s this past season, yet somehow the Diamondbacks made the NLCS.

 

Pitching tops the list, specially starting pitching. But that doesn’t mean its the only item on it…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's interesting to note, Cora once called Kike the best defensive 2Bman in MLB, then moved him to CF.

 

Once Kike established himself as one of the best defensive CF'ers in MLB, he moved him to SS.

 

Once Kike established himself as one of the worst defensive SSs in memory, he moved him to LA.

 

... and the Dodgers played him at SS every game in the playoffs -- and lost them all. Kike also played a little CF and 2B, and outhit Betts and Freeman...

[moonslav59]

318 MLB players had 500+ PAs since 2022. Here are how some place in OPS:

 

6. Betts .932

11. Soto .893

17. Devers .864

22. Casas .842

25. JD .836

30. Schwarber .822

39. Bogey .811

40. Suzuki .811

63. J Turner .795

79. Yoshida .783

113. Duvall .760

116. Renfroe .759

117. Duran .758

146. Dugo .738

 

.733 is the median OPS

 

172. T Pham .724

175. Beni .723

181. L Urias .712

208. Arroyo .696

224. Story .685

256. Vaz .661

270. Chavis .648

285. Kike .639

 

[moonslav59]

2023 wOBA (490 players with 80+ PAs)

18. Abreu .375

33. Casas .367

42. Devers .359

58. Duran.354

79. Duvall .347

91. Turner .346

122. Yoshida .339

161. EValdez .328

189. Dugo .322

214. Reyes .315

219. Ref .314

297. Urias .298

321. McGuire .293

328. Wong .292

348. Rafaela .287

447. Story .249

 

[mvp 78]

He did play 300 more innings than Kike to squeak by him -14 to -13, but we don't need a crappy SS.

 

Odds are he'd be okay at 2B, but I'm not sure he's all that much better than Urias.

 

If 2021 to 2022 is the time period of worth:

fWAR

5.2 Rosario

4.4 Urias

 

OPS

.766 Urias

.722 Rosario

 

If Kiké had 300 more innings his OAA would have been -17.

[moonslav59]

If Kiké had 300 more innings his OAA would have been -17.

 

Most likely, unless they were all with LAD and he's be -11.

 

LOL.

[harmony]

This year that Red Sox ranked 22nd in position player fWAR despite a near league-average wRC+ of 99:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The Red Sox were 20th in pitching fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The Sox have room for improvement in what should be an interesting offseason.

[moonslav59]

This year that Red Sox ranked 22nd in position player fWAR despite a near league-average wRC+ of 99:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The Red Sox were 20th in pitching fWAR:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2023&season1=2023&ind=0&team=0%2Cts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

 

The Sox have room for improvement in what should be an interesting offseason.

 

No doubt, and like most teams, some hopes are being placed on players returning from injury and returning to glory. We have our fair share of both.

 

We seem to have a bunch of capable players filling 20-21 slots on the 26, but many have at least one serious flaw or lingering question mark (like health.)

 

We don't have many really old players, except for Jansen & Martin.

 

We have a bunch of younger and promising players and prospects that can be added to the mix, but we've all seen what the quantity over quality approach has gotten us.

 

Our positional rankings:

 

20th: Catcher- Wong and McGuire took a dip, at the end of 2023 and are young enough to improve in 2024, but it's hard to know they will or to project it happening.

 

T10th 1B- I think this is one position we can expect a top 10 slot- maybe higher.

 

29th 2B- Seems to be one area we can improve on, since there is just about no way to go down. I like Urias and Reyes, but expecting more than 20th place might be wishful thinking. EValdez offers some offensive support, but his D is so bad, one wonders if he is meant for 2B.

 

26th SS- Is likely the one position we can see a major improvement without any additions to the system. It remains to be seen, if it happens.

 

T12th 3B- One can expect a top 10-12 ranking for 2024.

 

13th LF- It's hard to know, if Yoshida will be out FT DH or not. A Duran- Refsnyder platoon could hit as well as MY and should be better on D.

 

T8th CF- That was with Duvall and Duran. Who plays CF in '24? Rafaela, Duran, bring Duvall back? Abreu? Hard to project.

 

13th RF- If Dugo returns, we should expect about the same. Abreu could give the slot a boost.

 

T14th DH- No Turner? Yes Yoshida? Maybe close to the same?

 

The big if is the rotation. 27th in IP. 22nd in fWAR, but if we had a better D, maybe it could have been top 20.

 

The pen was 4th in IP and 13th in fWAR. We used 33 pitchers in 2023- 24 for more than 9 IP. We ad 21 over 18 IP.

 

Hopefully we can find 16-18 to give almost all the innings to.

 

 

 

 

 

[oldtimer]

No doubt, and like most teams, some hopes are being placed on players returning from injury and returning to glory. We have our fair share of both.

 

We seem to have a bunch of capable players filling 20-21 slots on the 26, but many have at least one serious flaw or lingering question mark (like health.)

 

We don't have many really old players, except for Jansen & Martin.

 

We have a bunch of younger and promising players and prospects that can be added to the mix, but we've all seen what the quantity over quality approach has gotten us.

 

Our positional rankings:

 

20th: Catcher- Wong and McGuire took a dip, at the end of 2023 and are young enough to improve in 2024, but it's hard to know they will or to project it happening.

 

T10th 1B- I think this is one position we can expect a top 10 slot- maybe higher.

 

29th 2B- Seems to be one area we can improve on, since there is just about no way to go down. I like Urias and Reyes, but expecting more than 20th place might be wishful thinking. EValdez offers some offensive support, but his D is so bad, one wonders if he is meant for 2B.

 

26th SS- Is likely the one position we can see a major improvement without any additions to the system. It remains to be seen, if it happens.

 

T12th 3B- One can expect a top 10-12 ranking for 2024.

 

13th LF- It's hard to know, if Yoshida will be out FT DH or not. A Duran- Refsnyder platoon could hit as well as MY and should be better on D.

 

T8th CF- That was with Duvall and Duran. Who plays CF in '24? Rafaela, Duran, bring Duvall back? Abreu? Hard to project.

 

13th RF- If Dugo returns, we should expect about the same. Abreu could give the slot a boost.

 

T14th DH- No Turner? Yes Yoshida? Maybe close to the same?

 

The big if is the rotation. 27th in IP. 22nd in fWAR, but if we had a better D, maybe it could have been top 20.

 

The pen was 4th in IP and 13th in fWAR. We used 33 pitchers in 2023- 24 for more than 9 IP. We ad 21 over 18 IP.

 

Hopefully we can find 16-18 to give almost all the innings to.

 

 

 

 

 

No way to rank the front office and coaches. Cora will stay although we will have some new coaches. I expect that Bloom leaving will be a positive, although that remains to be seen.

[moonslav59]

No way to rank the front office and coaches. Cora will stay although we will have some new coaches. I expect that Bloom leaving will be a positive, although that remains to be seen.

 

A better GM should be reflected in better 2024 rankings.

[Randy Red Sox]

A better GM should be reflected in better 2024 rankings.

 

hopefully the new GM isn't another Henry puppet

[Randy Red Sox]

Reyes really isn’t an everyday player. And just because Tori n need starting pitching didn’t mean ask other positions should absolutely, positively be 100% ignored this off-season.

 

The Sox pitching wasn’t any worse than Arizona’s this past season, yet somehow the Diamondbacks made the NLCS.

 

Pitching tops the list, specially starting pitching. But that doesn’t mean its the only item on it…

 

yes we need a 2B as well but eventually Story will slide there when Mayer arrives

[moonslav59]

yes we need a 2B as well but eventually Story will slide there when Mayer arrives

 

That's one reason I think we don't touch 2B for '24, unless it's a one year deal.

 

Urias, Reyes and EValdez might work out well.

 

SP

SP

RHB (CF?)

SP

LH RP

 

(2B is about 6th on my list.)

[mvp 78]

That's one reason I think we don't touch 2B for '24, unless it's a one year deal.

 

Urias, Reyes and EValdez might work out well.

 

SP

SP

RHB (CF?)

SP

LH RP

 

(2B is about 6th on my list.)

 

No, but you have the realistic expectation of them getting 3 starters!

[moonslav59]

No, but you have the realistic expectation of them getting 3 starters!

 

I've answered this several times: no. You confuse what I want with what I think we'll do.

 

I doubt we get one top SP'er and one second tier SP.

 

More likely we get 2 second tier guys or one second tier and someone like Seth Lugo or Flaherty.

 

I listed what I felt were our top 5 priorities, based on our highest need areas.

 

I hope we don't go light on 7-8 signings, which might include a MI'er.

 

If the goal is 2025, then let the kids play and make 1-3 longer term signings as a step towards more additions before 2025, once we have a better idea of what our kids can do.

 

If we want to win in 2024, I think we need to come close to my list of 5. One SP could come from a trade, and the rest would seem more affordable.