A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Trade: (BTV Accepted)

Mayer, Dugo & Dalbec for Jesus Luzardo (3 years of control via arbs. His 2024 arb estimate is $6M. Verdugo's in $9M) We save $3M and add a solid SP'er, while seriously downgrading our farm and Middle Infield depth.

 

Sign:

Sonny Gray to $26M x 5 (or Montgomery to $27M x 7)

Charlie Morton $22M x 1

Adam Duvall to $9M x 2

 

I think this keeps us under tax line 1.

 

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas (Devers)

2B: Urias & Reyes

SS: Story (Reyes)

3B: Devers (Urias)

LF: Duran-Refnsyder platoon (Yoshida)

CF: Rafaela & Abreu (Duran/Duvall)

RF: Duvall (Abreu)

DH: Yoshida (Devers/Casas)

 

The D looks better.

The O looks worse, unless Story can replace JT's bat.

The pitchings looks like nails:

 

SP1: Gray

SP2: Morton

SP3: Luzardo

SP4: Bello

SP5: Sale

SP6/LR3: Pivetta (Drohan/Gambrell/Walter/Hagenman/Wikelman)

LR1: Houck

LR2: Crawford

MR3: Whitlock

MR4: Schreiber

MR5: Winckowski (Bernardino/Murphy/Mata/Kelly/Mills)

SR6: Martin

SR7: Jansen

 

NOTE to MVP: This is not what I think will happen.

 

 

[moonslav59]

I know we won't sign 3 SP'ers, unless Breslow is a miracle worker.

 

We'll be lucky to see us add 2 high quality SP'ers, this winter, despite seeming to have the funds and trade capital to pull it off, while still signing a big RH'd bat.

 

Let's see what Breslow can do! I'm hoping for a big sea change, but will believe it when I see it.

[Hugh2]

I know we won't sign 3 SP'ers, unless Breslow is a miracle worker.

 

We'll be lucky to see us add 2 high quality SP'ers, this winter, despite seeming to have the funds and trade capital to pull it off, while still signing a big RH'd bat.

 

Let's see what Breslow can do! I'm hoping for a big sea change, but will believe it when I see it.

 

There aren't any big RH bats to sign.

[mvp 78]

Sox should sign:

 

Gray

Montgomery

Snell

Nola

 

That will probably put them over the CBT a little so they shouldn't sign Ohtani or anyone else.

[moonslav59]

Sox 2023 WAR leaders:

fWAR

Crawford 2.4

C Sale 2.1

Pivetta 1.9

B Bello 1.6

Martin 1.5

Houck 1.2

Jansen 1.1

Paxton 1.0

0.8 Whitlock

0.8 Winckowski

0.7 Bernardino

0.4 Murphy

0.1 Schreiber

 

bWAR

3.2 Martin

3.1 Bello

2.5 Crawford

2.4 Pivetta

1.9 Wink

1.7 Sale

1.3 Bernardino & Houck

1.1 Paxton

0.8 Schreiber

0.7 Jansen

...

0.2 Whitlokc

...

0.1 Murphy

 

fWAR + bWAR/2

2.5 Crawford

2.4 Bello

2.2 Pivetta

2.4 Martin

1.9 Sale

1.4 Winckowski

1.3 Houck

1.1 Paxton

1.0 Bernardino

0.9 Jansen

0.5 Whitlock & Schreiber

0.3 Murphy

 

Everyday Players bWAR + fWAR/2:

3.3 Devers

2.3 Dugo

2.3 Duran

2.0 Casas

1.7 Duvall

1.7 Turner

1.4 Wong

1.0 Yoshida

0.7 Abreu (28 gms)

0.5 Story (43 gms)

0.5 Reyes (64 gms)

0.4 Tapia (39 gms)

0.3 Refsnyder (89 gms)

0.2 Chang (39 gms)

0.2 EValdez (49 gms)

0.1 McGuire (72 gms)

0.1 urias (32 gms)

0.1 Rafaela (28 gms)

-0.3 Arroyo (66 gms)

-1.1 Kike (86 gms)

[notin]

Sox should sign:

 

Gray

Montgomery

Snell

Nola

 

That will probably put them over the CBT a little so they shouldn't sign Ohtani or anyone else.

 

So no Adam Frazier?

[moonslav59]

There aren't any big RH bats to sign.

 

Duvall may have to be the one, unless we trade for one.

[notin]

There aren't any big RH bats to sign.

 

Trade for Tyler O’Neill?

[notin]

Duvall may have to be the one, unless we trade for one.

 

Duvall is a very good option…

[moonslav59]

Duvall is a very good option…

 

I'd prefer he play RF, so it might take signing him and trading Dugo. That may also lessen the overall budget hit, so more can be spent on pitching.

 

LF: Duran & Refsnyder (Yoshida)

 

CF: Rafaela & Abreu (Duvall)

 

RF: Duvall & Abreu (Refsnyder)

[mvp 78]

So no Adam Frazier?

 

No room at the inn. He needs to sleep in back in the manger with the animals. Sorry!

[mvp 78]

Trade for Tyler O’Neill?

 

Does that move the needle at all?

[notin]

Does that move the needle at all?

 

It does.

 

RHH. 30 HR power. Two Gold Gloves. Struggled with injuries the last couple years and St. Louis keeps bouncing around the OF. Keep him in LF where he belongs…

[notin]

No room at the inn. He needs to sleep in back in the manger with the animals. Sorry!

 

He’s used to it. That’s typical for Pirates’ road game accommodations…

[mvp 78]

It does.

 

RHH. 30 HR power. Two Gold Gloves. Struggled with injuries the last couple years and St. Louis keeps bouncing around the OF. Keep him in LF where he belongs…

 

I spun the BTV wheel and came up with Refsnyder and Romero for O'Neill. Fine...

[mvp 78]

He’s used to it. That’s typical for Pirates’ road game accommodations…

 

Ben the Boob can't get anything right! That's why he should just be a coffee boy!

[moonslav59]

I spun the BTV wheel and came up with Refsnyder and Romero for O'Neill. Fine...

 

I'd do that.

[notin]

I spun the BTV wheel and came up with Refsnyder and Romero for O'Neill. Fine...

 

Or Verdugo straight up…

[moonslav59]

Or Verdugo straight up…

 

O'Neil does have power from the right side, but do we really need another LF'er?

 

I said, "I'd do it" a few minutes ago, but now I'm not so sure.

 

We need a big RHB who plays CF or RF well.

[mvp 78]

Or Verdugo straight up…

 

Trade Verdugo to the Marlins for De La Cruz.

[moonslav59]

Trade Verdugo to the Marlins for De La Cruz.

 

Another poor defensive LF'er?

 

No, thanks.

[notin]

O'Neil does have power from the right side, but do we really need another LF'er?

 

I said, "I'd do it" a few minutes ago, but now I'm not so sure.

 

We need a big RHB who plays CF or RF well.

 

I don’t think the Sox OF alignment is set at all right now. They might actually need a LF, and if the goal is a RHH, to here are more options for LF than RF.

 

If Yoshida moves to DH, the Sox still have Duran, Verdugo, Abreu, Refsnyder and Rafaela. Refsnyder is a role player and clearly not a starter.

 

Duran - will he move to LF or will he play CF? I don’t eliminate the latter possibility.

 

Verdugo - traded by many already, but until he is he’s on the Sox next year. He’s expressed an interest in being extended. The guy who ignored that request is gone.

 

Rafaela - Cora did say his future is in CF, but that’s not the same as anointing him starting CF in April 20/4. Really it could just mean no more 2b or SS. He might starting in CF in Boston in 2024, but he also might start the year in Worcester.

 

Abreu - like Rafaela, has the option of opening 2024 in Worcester. Reportedly capable at any OF position, but we shall see.

 

An OF of O’Neil-Duran-Verdugo isn’t exactly out of play at this point…

[moonslav59]

I don’t think the Sox OF alignment is set at all right now. They might actually need a LF, and if the goal is a RHH, to here are more options for LF than RF.

 

If Yoshida moves to DH, the Sox still have Duran, Verdugo, Abreu, Refsnyder and Rafaela. Refsnyder is a role player and clearly not a starter.

 

Duran - will he move to LF or will he play CF? I don’t eliminate the latter possibility.

 

Verdugo - traded by many already, but until he is he’s on the Sox next year. He’s expressed an interest in being extended. The guy who ignored that request is gone.

 

Rafaela - Cora did say his future is in CF, but that’s not the same as anointing him starting CF in April 20/4. Really it could just mean no more 2b or SS. He might starting in CF in Boston in 2024, but he also might start the year in Worcester.

 

Abreu - like Rafaela, has the option of opening 2024 in Worcester. Reportedly capable at any OF position, but we shall see.

 

An OF of O’Neil-Duran-Verdugo isn’t exactly out of play at this point…

 

To me, Duran, Refsnyder and Yoshida are best in LF over CF and RF. Until 2023, I'd have said the same about Dugo.

 

Our need seems to be more for CF than RF, but the big RHB might trump that.

[Hugh2]

If you didn't have Verdugo, and you had an outfielder out there who could play good defense in RF, and had an average to better bat, about a TWO WAR player who would sign for one year 9.5 million you would BE ALL OVER THAT GUY.

 

I don't think it's a safe assumption at this point, but I think it's a good one Verdugo is still here come spring time.

[moonslav59]

If you didn't have Verdugo, and you had an outfielder out there who could play good defense in RF, and had an average to better bat, about a TWO WAR player who would sign for one year 9.5 million you would BE ALL OVER THAT GUY.

 

I don't think it's a safe assumption at this point, but I think it's a good one Verdugo is still here come spring time.

 

If he batted RH'd, he'd be a 100% lock.

 

He's probably 85-90%, now.

[Old Red]

If you didn't have Verdugo, and you had an outfielder out there who could play good defense in RF, and had an average to better bat, about a TWO WAR player who would sign for one year 9.5 million you would BE ALL OVER THAT GUY.

 

I don't think it's a safe assumption at this point, but I think it's a good one Verdugo is still here come spring time.

 

Agree on Dugo. Duvall would have been an option for another year, but at 35 he’s lost a step from when he last won a Gold Glove a few years ago, and that wasn’t playing RF in Fenway. I wouldn’t give him 2-3 years now.

[notin]

To me, Duran, Refsnyder and Yoshida are best in LF over CF and RF. Until 2023, I'd have said the same about Dugo.

 

Our need seems to be more for CF than RF, but the big RHB might trump that.

 

They might be best in LF (which really applies to almost every outfielder) but right now Duran ranks number two on the Sox CF Defense Depth chart.

 

If Rafaela is the starter in CF, Duran could also be trade bait.

 

And Verdugo is fine in RF. If the OF winds up being Duran-Rafaela-Verdugo - also certainly possible - then adding a RH bat many want simply might not happen…

[moonslav59]

Agree on Dugo. Duvall would have been an option for another year, but at 35 he’s lost a step from when he last won a Gold Glove a few years ago, and that wasn’t playing RF in Fenway. I wouldn’t give him 2-3 years now.

 

It's hard to know how his D will age, and RF in Fenway is a very difficult position to play. So is CF, and he wasn't too bad. (-4 on OAA disagrees.)

 

Dugo was never considered a good RF'er, until suddenly he looked good in 2023.

 

He does seem like the easy guy to trade and replace with a RHB, but just doing so for the sake of it, may backfire.

 

Chances are, he will be back in 2024.

 

I really like Duvall, but 3 years might be too much.

[moonslav59]

They might be best in LF (which really applies to almost every outfielder) but right now Duran ranks number two on the Sox CF Defense Depth chart.

 

If Rafaela is the starter in CF, Duran could also be trade bait.

 

And Verdugo is fine in RF. If the OF winds up being Duran-Rafaela-Verdugo - also certainly possible - then adding a RH bat many want simply might not happen…

 

It's true. most OF'ers would be best in LF, but the guys I'm talking about would be downright scary in CF and RF, especially in Fenway.

 

Yoshida

Refsnyder

Duran

[moonslav59]

I get the need for a big RH'd bat, but I'm tired of having a team with 3 LF'ers and hardly anyone who can hit and play CF or RF for 2 straight seasons.