A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[dgalehouse]

The Diamondbacks finished 16 games behind the Dodgers , then swept them in the playoffs. Crapshoot.

[moonslav59]

The Diamondbacks finished 16 games behind the Dodgers , then swept them in the playoffs. Crapshoot.

 

This certainly bolsters the position that it is or in large part is a crapshoot, especially since the playoffs were expanded to 12 teams.

 

Still, there is evidence the better teams have a better chance, so it's not toally random, as a crapshoot implies.

 

Since 10-12 teams made the playoffs, each year....

 

2022: Astros 106 wins (1st in wins)

 

2021: Braves 88 wins (12th in wins)

 

2020: Dodgers (Most wins)

 

2019: Nationals 93 wins (8th in wins out of 10 teams)

 

2018: Red Sox 108 wins (1st out of 10)

 

2017: Astros 101 wins (3rd out of 10)

 

2016: Cubs 103 wins (1st out of 10)

 

2015: Royals 95 wins (3rd out of 10)

 

2014: Giants 88 wins (T8th-10th out of 10)

 

2013: Red Sox 97 wins (T 1st out of 10)

 

2012: Giants 90 wins (10th out of 10)

 

It seems like only the top 3 or bottom 3 teams almost always win it all.

[notin]

The Diamondbacks finished 16 games behind the Dodgers , then swept them in the playoffs. Crapshoot.

 

The alternate theory is that if a team doesn’t win a postseason game, that team was overrated. In fact, it means the entire division was overrated. Possibly the entire league!! Heck maybe it means all of MLB is watered down!!

Edited October 29, 2023 by notin

[moonslav59]

The alternate theory is that if a team doesn’t win a postseason game, that team was overrated. In fact, it means the entire division was overrated. Possibly the entire league!! Heck maybe it means all of MLB is watered down!!

 

Are you trolling, again?

[harmony]

At next July's MLB draft the Seattle Mariners face the indignity of drafting after the National League champions for the third year in a row.

 

But who better to suffer an indignity?

[Bellhorn04]

At next July's MLB draft the Seattle Mariners face the indignity of drafting after the National League champions for the third year in a row.

 

But who better to suffer an indignity?

 

That is rather absurd.

[notin]

Are you trolling, again?

 

I got caught up in the rhetoric…

[notin]

That is rather absurd.

 

Agreed. Why does MLB keep letting the Mariner’s draft?

[moonslav59]

Speaking of the 2024 MLB Draft, here is the odds simulator for pick order.

 

Top Pick

16.5% OAK, KCR, COL

13.3% CWS

10.0% STL

7.5% LAA

5.5% NYM

3.9% PIT

2.7% CLE

1.4% DET

1.1% BOS

 

Here are some mock drafts:

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10082215-2024-mlb-mock-draft-early-predictions-for-top-1st-round-baseball-prospects

 

1. Oakland Athletics: Vance Honeycutt, OF, North Carolina

2. Kansas City Royals: Jac Caglianone, 1B/LHP, Florida

3. Colorado Rockies: Chase Burns, RHP, Tennessee

4. Washington Nationals: Konnor Griffin, SS/OF, Jackson Prep (Miss.)

5. Chicago White Sox: Brody Brecht, RHP, Iowa

6. St. Louis Cardinals: Derek Curiel, OF, Orange Lutheran (Calif.)

7. Detroit Tigers: Tommy White, 1B/3B/, LSU

8. Pittsburgh Pirates: Braden Montgomery, RHP/OF, Stanford

9. New York Mets: Bryce Rainer, SS, Harvard-Westlake (Calif.)

10. Chicago Cubs: Carter Holton, LHP, Vanderbilt

11. San Diego Padres: Cam Caminiti, LHP, Saguaro (Ariz.)

12. Los Angeles Angels: Travis Bazzana, 2B, Oregon State

13. Minnesota Twins: Pierce Coppola, LHP, Florida

14. Seattle Mariners: Thatcher Hurd, RHP, LSU

15. Boston Red Sox: Paxton Kling, OF, LSU

 

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/MLB-Mock-Draft (AUG 29th, draft order has changed.)

1. OAK Chase Burns RHP

2. KCR Travis Bazzana 2B/SS

3. COL Vance Honeycutt OF

4. CWS JJ Wetherholt 3B/3B

5. STL Konnor Griffin SS/OF

6. PIT Jac Caglianone LHP/1B

7. DET Brody Brecht RHP

8. NYM Nick Kutz 1B/OF

9. Cam Caminiti LHP

10. SDP Charlie Condon 1B/OF

11. CLE Tommy White 1B

12. LAA Derek Curiel OF

13. NYY PJ Morlando OF

14. MIA Braden Montgomery OF/RHP

15. CIN Bryce Rainer SS

16. Pierce Coppola LHP

17. BOS Hagen Smith LHP

 

[Duran Is The Man]

agreed. Why does mlb keep letting the mariner’s draft?

 

lololol...

[harmony]

Agreed. Why does MLB keep letting the Mariner’s draft?

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2023/8/10/23826775/the-mariners-have-drafted-and-developed-an-entire-rotation-in-just-five-years

[moonslav59]

https://www.lookoutlanding.com/platform/amp/2023/8/10/23826775/the-mariners-have-drafted-and-developed-an-entire-rotation-in-just-five-years

 

Notin worded it wrongly. He meant to say, "Why doesn't MLB make the Mariners draft for the Sox."

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted these two trades, which would clear up a lot of roster slots for Rule 5 plus 3-4 FA signings:

 

Duran, Rafaela, Yorke, Drohan & Mata

for

Mitch Keller

 

Jansen, Verdugo & Kavadas

for

Christian Javier

 

Sign one from Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Nola

 

Sign Bellinger & Duvall

 

SP: Gray, Keller, Bello, Javier, Sale/Pivetta

RP: Bednar, Martin, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Schreiber

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas (Devers)

2B: Urias & Reyes

SS: Story (Mayer)

3B: Devers (Urias)

LF: Abreu & Refsnyder (Yoshida/Rosier)

CF: Bellinger (Abreu)

RF: Duvall/Abreu

DH: Yoshida (EValdez)

 

[notin]

BTV accepted these two trades, which would clear up a lot of roster slots for Rule 5 plus 3-4 FA signings:

 

Duran, Rafaela, Yorke, Drohan & Mata

for

Mitch Keller

 

Jansen, Verdugo & Kavadas

for

Christian Javier

 

Sign one from Yamamoto, Gray, Snell, Montgomery, Nola

 

Sign Bellinger & Duvall

 

SP: Gray, Keller, Bello, Javier, Sale/Pivetta

RP: Bednar, Martin, Winckowski, Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Schreiber

C: Wong & McGuire

1B: Casas (Devers)

2B: Urias & Reyes

SS: Story (Mayer)

3B: Devers (Urias)

LF: Abreu & Refsnyder (Yoshida/Rosier)

CF: Bellinger (Abreu)

RF: Duvall/Abreu

DH: Yoshida (EValdez)

 

 

 

And yet signing Matt Chapman was too much…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we want to go with just anecdotal evidence, let's take the team we know the very most about: the Boston Red Sox.

 

Rotations: focus on 1-2 punches and how many GS outside the top 4-5 SP'ers.)

 

1967: Lonborg "and 3 days of rain." (He started 39 games in a different era.)

Lee Stange 2.77 is awesome, but he pitched in relief for 11 of his 35 games.

Gary Bell 3.16 for 24 starts was awesome, too.

Darrell Brandon 4.17 (19 GS and 20 RP gms)

56 GS by 8 others (including 11 Bennett & Santiago, 9 Morehead, 8 by Rohr & Waslewski)

By the stats, it looks like they had 2-3 solid SP'ers, but in that era, it was really only 1.

 

1972 (missed the ALCS by 0.5 games in the unbalanced games played strike year)

35 Pattin 3.24 (looks like an ace in today's game, but not then.)

30 Siebert 3.80 (a decent #2)

22 McGlothen 3.41

21 Curtis 3.73

19 Tiant 1.91

(27 GS by others, including 16 by Culp and 7 Krausse)

This was a decent rotation, and we don't know how they might have done had they made the 4 team playoffs.)

 

(The '73 team won more games than '72 but finished 6 games out: Tiant 35/3.34, Lee 33/2.75, Curtis 30/3.58, Pattin 30/4.32, 15 Moret 15/3.17 and only 19 GS by others.)

 

Here is where I feel "the era" changed...

 

1975 Does not checked either box, but Tiant, Wise and Lee were a better 1-2-3 than surrounding years.

35 Tiant 4.02 (Hero in the playoffs)

35 Wise 3.95

34 Lee 3.95

20 Cleveland 4.43

16 Moret 3.60

20 by others: 11 Pole 4.42

I'd argue this was a deeper rotation than previous seasons, but it still lacked a serious 1-2 punch.

 

1977 team won more games than 1975, but finished 2.5 out.

4 of the top 4 SP'ers by GS had ERAs over 4.26. (Tiant was at 4.53 and Jenkins was #2 at 3.68)

 

1978 won 99 games and missed playoffs due to 163 game loss to NYY

36 Torres 3.96

35 Eck 2.99

31 Tiant 3.31

24 Lee 3.46

16 Wright 3.57

(11 Ripley 5.55 & 10 by others.)

This team seemed to have the formula to win. A nice 1-2-3 punch with Lee as the #4.

 

1986 lost WS in 7 games to NYM

33 Clemens 2.48 (perhaps the best SP the Sox have ever had, along with Pedro.)

30 Boyd 3.78 (nice numbers, but I'm not sure we can say he was a solid #2 punch.)

26 Nipper 5.38 (Yikes!)

25 Hurst 2.99 (could be viewed as a solid #2)

16 Seaver 3.80

31 by others (10 Sellers 4.94/ 6 by Brown 5.34)

 

1995 finished first in 3 division AL

29 Erik Hanson 4.24

27 Wake 2.95

23 Clemens 4.18

21 Z Smith 5.61

14 Eshelman 4.85

32 by others (12 Cormier 4.07)

 

1998 a 92 win team that made the playoffs as a WC team thanks to Pedro

33 Pedro 2.89

33 Wake 4.58

31 Saberhagen 3.96 (a decent #2, that year)

23 Avery 5.02

10 Lowe 4.03

32 by others (8 by Wasdin 5.25, Schourek 4.30 and Rose 6.93)

 

1999 a 94 win team that lost in the ALCS

29 Pedro 2.07 (WOW!)

27 Portugal 5.51

26 Rapp 4.12

22 Saberhagen 2.95

18 Rose 4.87

40 by others (17 Wake 5.08)

 

(2002 won 93 games and missed the playoffs: (32 Lowe 2.58, 30 Pedro 2.26 was a great 1-2 punch! Then, 29 Burkett 4.53, 23 Castillo 5.07, 15 Wake 2.81 w 30 gms as RP) 33 GS by others (12 Fossum 3.46)

 

2003 We all know the story of 2003

33 Wake 4.09

33 Lowe 4.47

30 Burkett 5.15

29 Pedro 2.22

That's a lot of starts from the top 4, but no solid 1-2 punch)

14 Fossum 5.47

23 by others is low. (10 Suppan 5.57)

 

2004 First Ring in over 8 decades! Checked both boxes: Great 1-2 punch and minimal starts outside the top 4-5 in the rotation:

33 Pedro 3.90 124 ERA+ in this hitter's era

33 Lowe 5.42

32 Schill 3.26 148 ERA+

30 Wake 4.87

29 Arroyo 4.03 (120 ERA+)

Only 5 GS outside the top 5! Lowe and Wake did not have great seasons.

 

2005 won 95 games but lost in ALDS (No Pedro & Lowe)

33 Wake 4.15

32 Arroyo 4.51

32 Clement 4.57

30 Wells 4.45

16 W Miller 4.95

19 by others (11 by Schill 5.69)

It's amazing we won so many games with this rotation, but we did not get far in the playoffs.

 

2007 World Champs, again! (Beckett & Schilling as the solid 1-2 punch, but not much support beyond them.)

32 Dice-K 4.40

31 Wake 4.76 (almost 400 IP from our 3-4 SP'ers)

30 Beckett 3.27

24 Schilling 3.87

23 Tavarez 5.15

22 GS from others (11 by Lester at 4.57 and 7 by Gabbard at 3.73)

 

(2008 won 95 games and lost in the ALCS: 33 Lester 3.21, 30 Wake 4.13, 29 Dice-K 2.90- maybe a good #2, that year, 27 Beckett 4.03, 15 Buch 6.75) 29 by others. Once could argue this rotation had a pretty solid 1-2-3 and they should have gone farther.)

 

(2009 also won 95 games but lost in the ALDS: 32 Beckett 3.86, 32 Lester 3.41, 24 Penny 5.61, 21 Wake 4.58, 16 Buch 4.21 but 37 by others w 12 by Dice-K 5.76 and 8 by Smoltz at 8.33.) We had a decent 1-2 punch but not much more.)

 

2013 was the 3rd ring! 97 win team: Had a 1-2 punch but 28 GS outside the top 5.

33 Lester 3.75

29 Lackey 3.52

29 Dempster 4.57

27 Doubront 4.32

16 Buch 1.74 (WOW!)

Added Peavy 10 GS with a 4.04 ERA

 

(2016 won 93 games and lost in ALDS: 35 Price 3.99, 33 Porcello 3.15 was a solid 1-2, but then... 24 Wright 3.33, 21 Buch 4.78, 20 ERod 4.71 and 29 by others w 13 by Pom at 4.59.)

 

(2017 also won 93 games, but Price was hurt: 33 Porcello 4.65, 32 Sale 2.90, 32 Pom 3.32, 24 ERod 4.19, 15 Fister 4.88 and 26 by others w Price at 11/3.38)

 

2018 was the 4th ring year! It had a very decent 1-2-3 and even 1-2-3-4 punch- 5 with Nate added.

33 Porcello 4.28

30 Price 3.58

27 Sale 2.11 (WOW!)

23 ERod 3.82

11 Nate 3.33

38 by others does not "check the second box, but the trade for Nate explains some of this. 13 GS by Johnson 4.17, 11 by Pom 6.08, 8 Velezquez 3.28)

 

(2021 won 92 games and went farther than many imagined: 32 Nate 3.75, 31 ERod 4.74, 31 Pivetta 4.53, 22 Richards 4.87 some as RP, 22 Perez 4.74 some as RP, 25 by others w 13 by Houck at 3.52. Erod did not really provide the 2nd "punch.")

 

It's my contention that having a solid 1-2 (or 1-2-3) punch with fewer GS outside the top 4-5 best SP'ers does not guarantee a ring, but with very few exceptions, every ring year we had checked both boxes. Many seasons we came close also checked both boxes or checked one box with emphasis.

 

There are other ways to win rings. The Sox have not been very good at winning rings without 2-3 solid SP'ers in the rotation. This does not mean we cannot win, unless we have 2-3, but to me, pitching has always been the best key to winning. Not the only one, but the best.

 

 

Moon, kudos for this breakdown. A lot of research, much appreciated, showing virtually any contending Red Sox team the past half-century plus had at least two solid starting pitchers.

 

I'd add that a bonafide 1-2 punch in pennant stretch-runs can also evolve, and supersede season totals for games started.

 

For example, the '67 Impossible Dream team's #2 man became Jose Santiago, who went unbeaten in his last six decisions and wound up leading the majors with a .750 winning percentage. Santiago was good enough to start World Series Games 1 and 4 vs. Bob Gibson, then made the All-Star team the next season before elbow injuries basically ended his career.

 

The other instance was obviously 1972, when Tiant's comeback not only made him Boston's main man, but also the majors ERA king. His last days in a Sox uniform were at the end of '78, when any fan who lived through it would still pick Looie and Eck as their 1-2 starters...

 

We also know Eovaldi and Price evolved into the top two guys in Cora's multi-role staff plan in the '18 postseason, as both starters and relievers. Remember, Price carried the stigma as a playoff failure, and had been surpassed as staff ace, first by Porcello (in his Cy season), then by Sale. But Price found a new pitch/delivery in a Houston bullpen, warming up late in a close ALCS game... then won two World Series starts vs. LA.

 

But what a mound mess in '05, after the Sox let Pedro and Lowe go. They won 95 because their offense scored 5.62 runs per game, but good pitching wiped out crapshooting in the postseason. That October the White Sox went 11-1 with a rock solid starting four. Intuitive Red Sox fans sensed it was already over when Game 1 starter Matt Clement hit his first batter (by the end, it was confirmed: Chicago 14, Boston 2).

[Bellhorn04]

and yet signing matt chapman was too much…

 

lol

[moonslav59]

And yet signing Matt Chapman was too much…

 

I actually did this one with you in mind, particularly the Jansen trade component.

[moonslav59]

Moon, kudos for this breakdown. A lot of research, much appreciated, showing virtually any contending Red Sox team the past half-century plus had at least two solid starting pitchers.

 

I'd add that a bonafide 1-2 punch in pennant stretch-runs can also evolve, and supersede season totals for games started.

 

For example, the '67 Impossible Dream team's #2 man became Jose Santiago, who went unbeaten in his last six decisions and wound up leading the majors with a .750 winning percentage. Santiago was good enough to start World Series Games 1 and 4 vs. Bob Gibson, then made the All-Star team the next season before elbow injuries basically ended his career.

 

The other instance was obviously 1972, when Tiant's comeback not only made him Boston's main man, but also the majors ERA king. His last days in a Sox uniform were at the end of '78, when any fan who lived through it would still pick Looie and Eck as their 1-2 starters...

 

We also know Eovaldi and Price evolved into the top two guys in Cora's multi-role staff plan in the '18 postseason, as both starters and relievers. Remember, Price carried the stigma as a playoff failure, and had been surpassed as staff ace, first by Porcello (in his Cy season), then by Sale. But Price found a new pitch/delivery in a Houston bullpen, warming up late in a close ALCS game... then won two World Series starts vs. LA.

 

But what a mound mess in '05, after the Sox let Pedro and Lowe go. They won 95 because their offense scored 5.62 runs per game, but good pitching wiped out crapshooting in the postseason. That October the White Sox went 11-1 with a rock solid starting four. Intuitive Red Sox fans sensed it was already over when Game 1 starter Matt Clement hit his first batter (by the end, it was confirmed: Chicago 14, Boston 2).

 

This doesn't mean we can never win without two solid SP'ers, but it seems to help- maybe for the Sox more than other teams. It does seem like other teams can win with just one mega ace who just dominates... like Bumgarner, Beckett (w MIA), but when you look closely at most WS winners, they had 2-3 solid SP'er with 25+ GS and were strong through the playoffs.

 

Good point about Nate becoming the #2 in 2018 (over Sale.) Sale was a big part of getting us to 108 wins.

[mvp 78]

The Diamondbacks finished 16 games behind the Dodgers , then swept them in the playoffs. Crapshoot.

 

The top 3 of the Diamondbacks rotation was formidable when the playoffs came around. The top 3 of the Dodgers was just crap. Without a rotation, the Dodgers weren't built for a good playoff run this year.

[moonslav59]

The top 3 of the Diamondbacks rotation was formidable when the playoffs came around. The top 3 of the Dodgers was just crap. Without a rotation, the Dodgers weren't built for a good playoff run this year.

 

Indeed, and that is a flaw in looking at just season GS'd and ERAs to determine if a team had 2-3 solid SP'ers.

 

If a team makes the playoffs and at that time has 2-3 solid SP'ers, their odds go way up, IMO.

 

The 2018 Sox team was a fine example. Looking at the season stats, Nate did not look great. He only started 21 games, all year (10 for TBR.) His 11 starts with the Sox were good enough for that status, and his playoff record spoke for itself.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This doesn't mean we can never win without two solid SP'ers, but it seems to help- maybe for the Sox more than other teams. It does seem like other teams can win with just one mega ace who just dominates... like Bumgarner, Beckett (w MIA), but when you look closely at most WS winners, they had 2-3 solid SP'er with 25+ GS and were strong through the playoffs.

 

Good point about Nate becoming the #2 in 2018 (over Sale.) Sale was a big part of getting us to 108 wins.

 

I've made fun of Sale the past few years for the absurd chain of events that has derailed his career. But I've also said I've never seen a more dominant pitcher in my life in person than Sale in '18 (and that includes all the Sox greats in their primes: Tiant, Clemens, Martinez).

 

When Sale returned from another IL stint on August 12, 2018, in Baltimore, he was literally unhittable. Sitting behind home plate, fans could see what helpless batters did: an extended release point that was closer to the 45-foot mound distance in Little League than the 60-foot "big" diamond -- and then a complete blur... 100 mph fastballs and 90 mph sliders, both that moved down and to the left that it made it nigh-impossible to even make contact.

 

In five shutout innings, Chris Sale gave up one hit, one fly ball, and two grounders. He struck out all the other batters, 12 total.

 

When Sale was on like that, the best chance a hitter had was to stick his bat out in time and hope a pitch hit the sweet spot. Unfortunately, the strain of all those deliveries took its toll on Sale's body, which has just never been the same.

 

He only had two great seasons for Boston -- as unbelievable as it may be now, Sale led the majors in innings pitched in 2017 -- but never forget the impact a lights-out ace can have on a franchise. One guy's dominance can breed the confidence of a winning culture that can last even beyond his brilliance. An enduring image of '18 is the standing ovation teammates gave him when Sale stormed out of the bullpen to pitch the last inning of the World Series...

[mvp 78]

You can win 100 games with a loaded offense and a mediocre rotation. However, once you get to the playoffs, that teams is more likely to struggle against a team with plus pitching especially if it's in the rotation.

[moonslav59]

I've made fun of Sale the past few years for the absurd chain of events that has derailed his career. But I've also said I've never seen a more dominant pitcher in my life in person than Sale in '18 (and that includes all the Sox greats in their primes: Tiant, Clemens, Martinez).

 

When Sale returned from another IL stint on August 12, 2018, in Baltimore, he was literally unhittable. Sitting behind home plate, fans could see what helpless batters did: an extended release point that was closer to the 45-foot mound distance in Little League than the 60-foot "big" diamond -- and then a complete blur... 100 mph fastballs and 90 mph sliders, both that moved down and to the left that it made it nigh-impossible to even make contact.

 

In five shutout innings, Chris Sale gave up one hit, one fly ball, and two grounders. He struck out all the other batters, 12 total.

 

When Sale was on like that, the best chance a hitter had was to stick his bat out in time and hope a pitch hit the sweet spot. Unfortunately, the strain of all those deliveries took its toll on Sale's body, which has just never been the same.

 

He only had two great seasons for Boston -- as unbelievable as it may be now, Sale led the majors in innings pitched in 2017 -- but never forget the impact a lights-out ace can have on a franchise. One guy's dominance can breed the confidence of a winning culture that can last even beyond his brilliance. An enduring image of '18 is the standing ovation teammates gave him when Sale stormed out of the bullpen to pitch the last inning of the World Series...

 

Nice post.

 

I do think Pedro had times like this, too. When you look at the era he was pitching in, he was the most dominant pitcher- compared to his peers, than Clemens and Sale.

 

Years with BOS, only...

 

Best fWAR seasons:

11.6 Pedro '99

9.4 Pedro '00

9.2 Clemens '88

8.5 Clemens '91

8.4 Clemens '87

8.2 Clemens '90

7.6 Sale '17

7.6 Clemens '92

7.4 Pedro '02

7.4 Pedro'03

7.1 Clemens '86

6.8 Clemens '96

6.2 Sale '18

6.1 Pedro '05

 

ERA- (which speaks more to the era)

31 Pedro '99

38 Pedro '01

47 Sale '18

47 Clemens '90

48 Pedro '00

51 Pedro '03

54 Pedro '02

57 Clemens '86

57 Clemens '94

58 Clemens '92

 

To me, pedro's 5 year stretch was the best of alltime in MLB!

 

(If you count his last year with MTL and 1998 with BOs, he mght have the best 7 game stretch, ever, too.

 

ERA+

219 MTL '97

163 BOS '98

243 '99

291 '00

188 '01

202 '02

211 '03

 

Red= led league

 

 

1999-2003

82-21 2.10 in a hitter's era. (228 ERA+ over 5 straight seasons!)

0.905 WHIP

1.95 FIP

 

1997-2003

118-36 2.20 (213 ERA+) 0.940 WHIP and a 2.26 FIP

 

From 199-2003, the league ERAs were: 4.28 to 4.71.

TOP ERA- from 1999-2003

45 Pedro (41.3 fWAR)

59 Randy J (39.3)

67 K Brown (23.9)

 

 

Edited October 30, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/looking-for-a-match-in-an-alex-verdugo-trade.html

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/10/looking-for-a-match-in-an-alex-verdugo-trade.html

 

VerduGottaGo.

[notin]

VerduGottaGo.

 

Why?

 

He’s they one guy who has expressed an interest in being extended. And the guy who wouldn’t extend him is no longer in charge…

[moonslav59]

VerduGottaGo.

 

He's not our weakest link, by far, but with one year left and some attitude issues, I think he's a goner.

 

Maybe Breslow will see him differently.

 

I do not think it is wise to turn over CF and RF to a mix of Duran (LF/CF), Rafaela (CF/SS/2B) and Abreu (OF.) Refsnyder should only be an emergency RF'er, unless it is NY or a park with a short RF.

 

I'd add Duvall, who might cost about as much as Dugo's $9M arb estimate. No added cost. A gain of a RHB. A better attitude.

 

[Nick]

MassLive positional review, Catching

 

WHAT’S COMING FROM THE MINORS?

 

 

"The Red Sox believe they found their catcher of the future in the draft, as they selected Virginia standout Kyle Teel with the 14th overall pick. Teel, already ranked as Boston’s No. 5 prospect by SoxProspects.com after raking (.363 average, .977 OPS) in his first 26 pro games and reaching Double-A, is the Sox’ best catching prospect in years and could be ready to impact the major league roster at some point in 2024.

 

The Red Sox are also excited about 18-year-old Johanfran Garcia and also have Nathan Hickey, Brooks Brannon and Stephen Scott in the system. But Teel is the star of the catching ranks and the organization’s future plans at the position revolve around him.

 

Wong’s season was generally impressive. Though he posted just a .673 OPS and struck out 134 times, he showed some pop (25 doubles, 9 homers) and the Red Sox believe there’s more in the tank offensively. Wong, however, was most impressive defensively, ranking fourth among all catchers with 4 defensive runs saved (DRS) and throwing out 21% of would-be base stealers (league average). For most of the season, he ranked among the top of the league in many defensive metrics."

 

Definitely we saved money here trading Vaz.....twins are obligated for 2 more years at 10M per year. And look what we got in return for a 3 month rental. Good job, Bloom.

 

Any questions? next...

Edited October 30, 2023 by Nick

[mvp 78]

Interesting how it is framed.

 

Masataka Yoshida is entrenched in left field after a strong first stateside campaign, while the likes of Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, and Ceddanne Rafaela all represent solid young outfield options that the Red Sox have previously expressed belief in.

[mvp 78]

MassLive positional review, Catching

 

WHAT’S COMING FROM THE MINORS?

 

 

"The Red Sox believe they found their catcher of the future in the draft, as they selected Virginia standout Kyle Teel with the 14th overall pick. Teel, already ranked as Boston’s No. 5 prospect by SoxProspects.com after raking (.363 average, .977 OPS) in his first 26 pro games and reaching Double-A, is the Sox’ best catching prospect in years and could be ready to impact the major league roster at some point in 2024.

 

The Red Sox are also excited about 18-year-old Johanfran Garcia and also have Nathan Hickey, Brooks Brannon and Stephen Scott in the system. But Teel is the star of the catching ranks and the organization’s future plans at the position revolve around him.

 

Wong’s season was generally impressive. Though he posted just a .673 OPS and struck out 134 times, he showed some pop (25 doubles, 9 homers) and the Red Sox believe there’s more in the tank offensively. Wong, however, was most impressive defensively, ranking fourth among all catchers with 4 defensive runs saved (DRS) and throwing out 21% of would-be base stealers (league average). For most of the season, he ranked among the top of the league in many defensive metrics."

 

Any questions? next...

 

Hickey isn't a Catcher. Scott is a UTIL guy that has picked up C late. Brannon is far away and didn't impress last year.

 

Garcia is a very interesting prospect that we should be paying attention to. He can hit the snot out of the ball and can field the position really well.

 

Teel is far and away the best of the bunch though. He should be taking over full time duties by '26 at the latest.