A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[mvp 78]

That’s really it.

 

Houck, in the right hands, is a lights out multi-inning reliever (3 innings max). Pfaadt is a potential starter…

 

We'll see if Crag has some ideas about how to handle Houck.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Not sure if starting two rookie outfielders is the way to go. Not like these guys are the Gold Dust Twins 2.0…

 

... or Vampire Dust, like Bello turned into when pitching in the daylight.

[Bellhorn04]

... or Vampire Dust, like Bello turned into when pitching in the daylight.

 

Hopefully it wasn't a booze thing like Derek Lowe in 2004.

 

I'm only saying that because it's so outrageous and wrong.

[notin]

... or Vampire Dust, like Bello turned into when pitching in the daylight.

 

I cut Bello some slack. He’s not the first pitcher to slow down as his first MLB season wore on…

[notin]

We'll see if Crag has some ideas about how to handle Houck.

 

 

I’m hoping it’s the bullpen. If he is a starter, it might be dictated by finances…

[moonslav59]

That’s really it.

 

Houck, in the right hands, is a lights out multi-inning reliever (3 innings max). Pfaadt is a potential starter…

 

I'd be okay with Houck starting and yanking him after 18 batters, but we need our other 4 SP'ers to be innings eaters, so we don't overtax the pen, again.

[notin]

I'd be okay with Houck starting and yanking him after 18 batters, but we need our other 4 SP'ers to be innings eaters, so we don't overtax the pen, again.

 

The Sox have 4 SP candidates IMO not counting Houck. They don’t need to put him in the rotation.

 

Granted one of those candidates is Sale, not exactly a bastion of durability. On this site, the mantra (true as it is) is that the Six shouldn’t count on Sale. Breslow, however, might not have that luxury…

[mvp 78]

Hopefully it wasn't a booze thing like Derek Lowe in 2004.

 

I'm only saying that because it's so outrageous and wrong.

 

Worked for David Wells.

[mvp 78]

I’m hoping it’s the bullpen. If he is a starter, it might be dictated by finances…

 

Houck needs a specific spot and for him to maximize his arsenal. Watching him now just feels like he's holding back.

[notin]

Worked for David Wells.

 

Also Ellis Kinder.

 

If the reference is too obscure, read “The Summer of ‘49” by David Halberstam…

[mvp 78]

Also Ellis Kinder.

 

If the reference is too obscure, read “The Summer of ‘49” by David Halberstam…

 

On May 17, 1947, a seagull flew over Fenway Park and dropped a three-pound smelt on Kinder while he was pitching for the St. Louis Browns. Nevertheless, Kinder beat Boston 4–2.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Lucky for Kinder the Exit Dropocity only registered a mercury level of 0.15. But what was his Fins Above Replacement Minnow?

[moonslav59]

Some of the earlier FA signings, last winter:

 

11/15 Rizzo (NYY)

11/28 J Abreu (HOU)

12/6 Haniger (SFG)

12/8 T Turner (PHI)

12/9 Bogey (SDP), Contreras (STL)

12/10 Nimmo (NYM)

12/12 Josh Bell (CLE)

12/14 Jace peterson (OAK)

12/14 Bellinger (CHC)

12/15 Yoshida (BOS), Kiermaier (TOR) & A Frazier (BAL)

12/16 Vaz (MN)

12/20 Judge (NYY) & J Gallo (MN)

 

We are just weeks away...

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Some of the earlier FA signings, last winter:

 

11/15 Rizzo (NYY)

11/28 J Abreu (HOU)

12/6 Haniger (SFG)

12/8 T Turner (PHI)

12/9 Bogey (SDP), Contreras (STL)

12/10 Nimmo (NYM)

12/12 Josh Bell (CLE)

12/14 Jace peterson (OAK)

12/14 Bellinger (CHC)

12/15 Yoshida (BOS), Kiermaier (TOR) & A Frazier (BAL)

12/16 Vaz (MN)

12/20 Judge (NYY) & J Gallo (MN)

 

We are just weeks away...

 

 

Looking at that list, the one guy (besides Bogey) I was all in for was Mitch Haniger. He would have surely supplied the right-handed power subtracted from the line-up with the loss of JD Martinez...

 

... at least I got the math operation right -- Haniger was only minus-3 WAR.

[moonslav59]

Looking at that list, the one guy (besides Bogey) I was all in for was Mitch Haniger. He would have surely supplied the right-handed power subtracted from the line-up with the loss of JD Martinez...

 

... at least I got the math operation right -- Haniger was only minus-3 WAR.

 

Bloom's choice was apparently Jose Abreu, so you were not alone on near misses.

[Duran Is The Man]

Also Ellis Kinder.

 

If the reference is too obscure, read “The Summer of ‘49” by David Halberstam…

 

some thought Oct 2, 1949 was the worst day in Red Sox history after Joe McCarthy pulled Kinder for Mel Parnell. i wasn't around then but Oct 2, 1978 was the worst for me.

[Bellhorn04]

some thought Oct 2, 1949 was the worst day in Red Sox history after Joe McCarthy pulled Kinder for Mel Parnell. i wasn't around then but Oct 2, 1978 was the worst for me.

 

1978 was the worst for me too.

[moonslav59]

1978 was the worst for me too.

 

'75 was so exciting, and the Reds seemed like heavy favorites. The Carbo & Fisk homers, along with Tiant's greatness cushioned the blow, a bit. Yes, that '78 loss was the stab in the heart. That was a great '78 team.

[notin]

1978 was the worst for me too.

 

1986. Up 3 games to 2. Two run lead with 2 outs in the last inning…

[mvp 78]

Bloom's choice was apparently Jose Abreu, so you were not alone on near misses.

 

Abreu's 2022 Statcast looked like ass, so it's not surprising that he fell to earth.

[mvp 78]

1978 was the worst for me too.

 

10/25/86 for me.

[mvp 78]

1986. Up 3 games to 2. Two run lead with 2 outs in the last inning…

 

Stanley throwing the ball to the backstop.

[moonslav59]

1986. Up 3 games to 2. Two run lead with 2 outs in the last inning…

 

That was horrible. I was older, then, and the culture of losing was so prevalent, it was almost expected.

 

Still, it hurt like hell. I felt we finally had the pitching, that year, but it just didn't work out.

 

Sox fans that have been watching for 45-50+ years have certainly had our share or grief, sorrow and disgust. This is one reason, I don't get as angry at the current situation as some seem to get. I'd be more upset, if I didn't feel like the future looked brighter, but I think we are headed in the right direction.

 

I had hopes it would not take 5+ years to get to this point, which is still short of the type of roster needed to be a serious contender.

 

I truly feel like we are just 3-4 major pieces away. In some ways, that does not sound like much, especially when you figure, we could spend near $50M without even going over the tax line. (There is also no reason to think we can't go over that line by $18-19M, either.) I know it's not easy to add two top of the rotation pitchers in one winter, along with a solid RHB, when few are available on the FA market at positions of high need for the Sox.

 

I will understand, if we hold firm on the idea of not trading any top prospects for a quick fix, or even a longer term solution, but I think we can afford one such trade, this winter. To me, we will need to do one of two things, this winter, to add those 3-4 players needed and be considered a top contender:

 

1. Spend up to but below the second tax line.

 

2. Spend near the first tax line AND make one big trade involving a top 5 prospect and maybe 1-2 second tier prospects for one of those key pieces.

 

Has the culture changed enough for either or both of these things to happen?

 

Stay tuned.

[moonslav59]

Abreu's 2022 Statcast looked like ass, so it's not surprising that he fell to earth.

 

What a horrible start he has to 2023.

.515 on May 14th.

He did go .745, after that, and did well in the playoffs, but I'm sure glad we missed out on him. Turner did much better.

[mvp 78]

What a horrible start he has to 2023.

.515 on May 14th.

He did go .745, after that, and did well in the playoffs, but I'm sure glad we missed out on him. Turner did much better.

 

745 for the guy who would have been the DH is not great though. That's worse than Valdez.

[Bellhorn04]

1986. Up 3 games to 2. Two run lead with 2 outs in the last inning…

 

And nobody on base. Yes, 1986 was a solid #2 to 1978 for me. And then 2003 was a solid #3.

[mvp 78]

And nobody on base. Yes, 1986 was a solid #2 to 1978 for me. And then 2003 was a solid #3.

 

2003 really sucked, but I don't think it lingered the way other seasons did. Even the replays of the Boone walkoff didn't bother me after the fact. I was just really pissed off that night.

 

2011 was just frustrating the month of September to see it all fall apart. It was just witnessing the end of the Theo/Tito era. Just kind of sad in a different way.

[Bellhorn04]

2003 really sucked, but I don't think it lingered the way other seasons did. Even the replays of the Boone walkoff didn't bother me after the fact. I was just really pissed off that night.

 

2011 was just frustrating the month of September to see it all fall apart. It was just witnessing the end of the Theo/Tito era. Just kind of sad in a different way.

 

And it's been a bizarro roller coaster ever since.

[moonslav59]

745 for the guy who would have been the DH is not great though. That's worse than Valdez.

 

Indeed. He did show signs of life in the playoffs, but that was a short sample size.

 

I think I'd rather have Yoshida than Abreu.

 

I wonder, if the plan was to get both.

[Bellhorn04]

Indeed. He did show signs of life in the playoffs, but that was a short sample size.

 

I think I'd rather have Yoshida than Abreu.

 

I wonder, if the plan was to get both.

 

Why must you wonder such things.