A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

the C position is another position the Sox pale in comparison to contending teams.

 

With Teel reaching AA last year, I get not investing in catching right now. Teel could be behind home plate in Fenway by July…

[notin]

Sox are 27th in FanGraphs C Power Rankings.

 

Connor Wong floundered in his first full season in the majors, where his proclivity to whiff and chase kept his OBP below .290. And while his maximum exit velocities sat in premium territory, he clubbed just nine homers in 403 plate appearances, too often hitting the ball on the ground. Wong’s struggles will open up more playing time for backup Reese McGuire, who lacks Wong’s raw strength but makes more contact and is more defensively sure-handed.

 

Roberto Pérez also figures to enter this playing time mix, especially if either Wong or McGuire fails to meet their offensive projections. Pérez, who signed a split contract this winter, is one of the most talented framers in baseball, but has played just 26 games across the past two years due to injuries, including a surgery to his throwing shoulder that ended his 2023 season just a week in. We have him projected as an emergency call-up, but he could play his way into a much larger role.

 

FanGraphs grades Pérez out better than Wong or McGuire per PA due to his defense. FanGraphs does not like Wong's defense even though he has a cannon for an arm.

 

Wong has an option left. Perez might have a chance to make the Sox…

[moonslav59]

Wong has an option left. Perez might have a chance to make the Sox…

 

Wong is hitting 1.300 in ST.

 

I think he and McGuire are undervalued.

[Randy Red Sox]

With Teel reaching AA last year, I get not investing in catching right now. Teel could be behind home plate in Fenway by July…

 

i don't disagree on not spending money on that position but think it is optimistic that Teal is in Boston by July given that he did not get hardly any ST games.

[mvp 78]

i don't disagree on not spending money on that position but think it is optimistic that Teal is in Boston by July given that he did not get hardly any ST games.

 

If he's playing great this year, he's in WOO in July.

[Bellhorn04]

Teeeeeeeeeel

[moonslav59]

If he's playing great this year, he's in WOO in July.

 

Agreed- best case: Boston in September.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

With Teel reaching AA last year, I get not investing in catching right now. Teel could be behind home plate in Fenway by July…

 

OMG! Kid's only had 114 plate appearances in the pros! We don't want to wreck him!

 

... if a ballplayer plays ball good enough, then he's good enough.

 

And as an old fan, I could care less if my favorite team gets one extra year of control -- in the next six years. I just want to watch the best possible Red Sox team in the next six months.

[notin]

OMG! Kid's only had 114 plate appearances in the pros! We don't want to wreck him!

 

... if a ballplayer plays ball good enough, then he's good enough.

 

And as an old fan, I could care less if my favorite team gets one extra year of control -- in the next six years. I just want to watch the best possible Red Sox team in the next six months.

 

He was drafted in June of last year, has already played in AA, and probably debuts this year.

 

He is clearly being fast tracked. Are the complaints now that it still isn’t fast enough? Since he hasn’t even played professional ball for a full year yet, maybe they’re still trying to determine if he is ready. If he debuts in June/July, he isn’t being held back for an extra year; it’s because he’s only played for one year.

 

Nick Yorke looked like a sure thing within a year of getting drafted. Did you want him starting at 2b in 2022?

[mvp 78]

Agreed- best case: Boston in September.

 

IDK, for a young catcher I wouldn't rush them to MLB. Teel is 22. Rutschman didn't have an MLB appearance until 24. No reason to push it with him. He still has a lot to learn about receiving.

[mvp 78]

He was drafted in June of last year, has already played in AA, and probably debuts this year.

 

He is clearly being fast tracked. Are the complaints now that it still isn’t fast enough? Since he hasn’t even played professional ball for a full year yet, maybe they’re still trying to determine if he is ready. If he debuts in June/July, he isn’t being held back for an extra year; it’s because he’s only played for one year.

 

Nick Yorke looked like a sure thing within a year of getting drafted. Did you want him starting at 2b in 2022?

 

Probably? No. There's a non-zero chance. Less than 10%.

[moonslav59]

IDK, for a young catcher I wouldn't rush them to MLB. Teel is 22. Rutschman didn't have an MLB appearance until 24. No reason to push it with him. He still has a lot to learn about receiving.

 

True.

 

I thought the soxprospects podcast said they felt Tell had the best chance of a 2024 call-up over Anthony and Mayer.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He was drafted in June of last year, has already played in AA, and probably debuts this year.

 

He is clearly being fast tracked. Are the complaints now that it still isn’t fast enough? Since he hasn’t even played professional ball for a full year yet, maybe they’re still trying to determine if he is ready. If he debuts in June/July, he isn’t being held back for an extra year; it’s because he’s only played for one year.

 

Nick Yorke looked like a sure thing within a year of getting drafted. Did you want him starting at 2b in 2022?

 

I've been on board with Keel making the majors this year since last summer. But if you want to compare #1 picks, you can do better than the Yorke comp...

 

... Division I for three years and top-rated college catcher in the nation vs. high school kid who DHed for a few weeks before Covid shut down his senior year -- and who nobody but the Bloom Administration had as a first-rounder... and who some raters didn't even have as a top 100 prospect (but raters gotta rate).

[notin]

Probably? No. There's a non-zero chance. Less than 10%.

 

I would never equate “probably” with a 10% chance. So I’ll defer to “non-zero”.

 

I do think his playing in AA last year made me think the path would be quicker…

[mvp 78]

True.

 

I thought the soxprospects podcast said they felt Tell had the best chance of a 2024 call-up over Anthony and Mayer.

 

Does that mean one of those three has to be called up this year?

 

I think Anthony is more likely to be called up IMO. If he's raking, he can slide right in on defense. With Teel, the offense is secondary.

[moonslav59]

Does that mean one of those three has to be called up this year?

 

 

No.

 

My position is that September is the "best case scenario."

 

That does not say I think 2024 is his year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Does that mean one of those three has to be called up this year?

 

I think Anthony is more likely to be called up IMO. If he's raking, he can slide right in on defense. With Teel, the offense is secondary.

 

Unfortunately, the reality of tanking might mean no prospects get brought up this year. It's different if a club is goin for it, and an injury requires a replacement on the fasttrack like Carter on the Rangers last Fall.

 

Fans of doormats might clamor for promotions and "What have we got to lose!" -- but posters here know the answer the front office won't say publicly: "One more year of control."

 

In the olden days, teams always gave top prospects a taste of the bigs every September. Nowadays, they save big bucks by serving those cups of coffee at the Prospects Camp in the offseason.

[notin]

Unfortunately, the reality of tanking might mean no prospects get brought up this year. It's different if a club is goin for it, and an injury requires a replacement on the fasttrack like Carter on the Rangers last Fall.

 

Fans of doormats might clamor for promotions and "What have we got to lose!" -- but posters here know the answer the front office won't say publicly: "One more year of control."

 

In the olden days, teams always gave top prospects a taste of the bigs every September. Nowadays, they save big bucks by serving those cups of coffee at the Prospects Camp in the offseason.

 

In the olden days, call ups after August 31 got no credit for service time. They were still into maintaining control even then…

[notin]

Unfortunately, the reality of tanking might mean no prospects get brought up this year. It's different if a club is goin for it, and an injury requires a replacement on the fasttrack like Carter on the Rangers last Fall.

 

Fans of doormats might clamor for promotions and "What have we got to lose!" -- but posters here know the answer the front office won't say publicly: "One more year of control."

 

In the olden days, teams always gave top prospects a taste of the bigs every September. Nowadays, they save big bucks by serving those cups of coffee at the Prospects Camp in the offseason.

 

Are the Sox even tanking? It seems like they’re just not spending, which isn’t the same. In fact, it’s probably worse.

 

To truly tank, they should also be dealing way any valuable asset. Not only to save money, but also to get some Future Hopeful. That Jansen, Martin and Pivetta are still here, along with a few others, seems more like apathy than actual rebuilding…

[Bellhorn04]

Are the Sox even tanking? It seems like they’re just not spending, which isn’t the same. In fact, it’s probably worse.

 

What the Sox are doing seems more like the Dead Man's Float...

[mvp 78]

Unfortunately, the reality of tanking might mean no prospects get brought up this year. It's different if a club is goin for it, and an injury requires a replacement on the fasttrack like Carter on the Rangers last Fall.

 

Fans of doormats might clamor for promotions and "What have we got to lose!" -- but posters here know the answer the front office won't say publicly: "One more year of control."

 

In the olden days, teams always gave top prospects a taste of the bigs every September. Nowadays, they save big bucks by serving those cups of coffee at the Prospects Camp in the offseason.

 

In the olden days, the rosters expanded in September. Under the new rules, the rosters don't really allow for a bunch of prospects to appear in 4-5 meaningless games anymore. The only way someone gets called up is if they are actually going to play for a few weeks like Rafaela and Abreu did last year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Are the Sox even tanking? It seems like they’re just not spending, which isn’t the same. In fact, it’s probably worse.

 

To truly tank, they should also be dealing way any valuable asset. Not only to save money, but also to get some Future Hopeful. That Jansen, Martin and Pivetta are still here, along with a few others, seems more like apathy than actual rebuilding…

 

Pivetta? Isn't he the kind of average starter the Sox will be looking to sign or trade for next winter, just to eat innings and field a team so they can sell tickets and play the games?

 

Like I said, adding Hendricks for the future makes it more likely Jansen and Martin will at least be gone by the deadline -- when they've had enough time to show contenders they're healthy enough to contribute. Brez can't sell low now, even if he wants to.

 

The Sox may not be holding a preseason firesale, but that doesn't mean it's a tankless operation, either.

[mvp 78]

Are the Sox even tanking? It seems like they’re just not spending, which isn’t the same. In fact, it’s probably worse.

 

To truly tank, they should also be dealing way any valuable asset. Not only to save money, but also to get some Future Hopeful. That Jansen, Martin and Pivetta are still here, along with a few others, seems more like apathy than actual rebuilding…

 

They are the embodiment of the Beetlejuice "just hangin' around" TikTok. They aren't doing anything. They are just there.

[mvp 78]

Pivetta? Isn't he the kind of average starter the Sox will be looking to sign or trade for next winter, just to eat innings and field a team so they can sell tickets and play the games?

 

Like I said, adding Hendricks for the future makes it more likely Jansen and Martin will at least be gone by the deadline -- when they've had enough time to show contenders they're healthy enough to contribute. Brez can't sell low now, even if he wants to.

 

The Sox may not be holding a preseason firesale, but that doesn't mean it's a tankless operation, either.

 

Tanking, but not for a high draft pick. They may acquire some other prospects via trades, but I think Breslow is using this year to evaluate what he has.

[Bellhorn04]

Tanking, but not for a high draft pick. They may acquire some other prospects via trades, but I think Breslow is using this year to evaluate what he has.

 

Crag has been assured he has a longer leash than his predecessors, no doubt...

[sk7326]

Are the Sox even tanking? It seems like they’re just not spending, which isn’t the same. In fact, it’s probably worse.

 

To truly tank, they should also be dealing way any valuable asset. Not only to save money, but also to get some Future Hopeful. That Jansen, Martin and Pivetta are still here, along with a few others, seems more like apathy than actual rebuilding…

 

The NICE version I think is ..

 

They had a couple of premium targets they really wanted to sign - like Yamamoto. Once that didn't happen - they decided to keep the CBT powder clean and to try to give a runway for some young talent to take some big league positions. Giolito was supposed to be a floor raiser, and we see how that went.

 

Breslow is taking inventory - but I think his biggest job is how to fix the pitching infrastructure in the org.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

I don't know if this has already been posted, but Cora has named Bello as the opening day starter. It was a choice between him and Pivetta.

[notin]

In the olden days, the rosters expanded in September. Under the new rules, the rosters don't really allow for a bunch of prospects to appear in 4-5 meaningless games anymore. The only way someone gets called up is if they are actually going to play for a few weeks like Rafaela and Abreu did last year.

 

MLB has made some dumb rule changes recently, a list topped by the ghost runner, but one very good rule was limiting September call ups...

[iortiz]

We are literally going to enter into the season without a rotation lol just wow!

 

If you think last two seasons were a nightmare wait to see this one.

 

This team has turned into a complete disaster.

 

That’s my reality check.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The SOX BP looks pretty good. My question is at what point in the season will most of the BP arms be exhausted?