A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Various fWAR projections for our rotation:

 

The BAT

2.2 Pivetta

2.1 Bello

2.1 Giolito

1.9 Crawford

1.8 Houck

 

ATC

2.2 Bello

2.1 Pivetta

2.1 Giolito

1.7 Crawford

1.6 Houck

 

Steamer

2.5 Bello

2.3 Giolito

2.0 Pivetta

1.8 Houck

1.7 Crawford

 

ZIPS

2.5 Giolito

2.3 Bello

1.6 Crawford

1.3 Pivetta

1.2 Houck

 

Average:

2.2 Bello

2.2 Giolito

1.9 Pivetta

1.7 Crawford

1.6 Houck

 

Highest:

2.5 Bello

2.5 Giolito

2.2 Pivetta

1.9 Crawford

1.8 Houck

 

[moonslav59]

Who is our leadoff hitter, this year?

[Bellhorn04]

Who is our leadoff hitter, this year?

 

Duran? We'll find out in spring games.

[mvp 78]

Hard to go LRLR with the best 2 guys being Casas and Raffy...

 

Duran

Grissom

Raffy

Casas

Story

Masa

O'Neillll

Abreu

Wong

[moonslav59]

Duran? We'll find out in spring games.

 

Sounds right. I do worry about his splits v LHPs, despite doing okay, last year with a .327 OBP.

 

Could this be what we see?

 

1. L Duran CF

2. L Devers 3B

3. R O'Neill LF

4. L Casas 1B

5. R Story SS

6. L Yoshida DH

7. R Grissom 2B

8. L Abreu RF

9. L Wong/R McGuire C

Bench: (McGuire or Wong,) Reyes, Refsnyder, Dalbec

 

ML Ready Farm depth:

C: R Perez, T Heineman (Teel)

1B: S Scott © (Jordan)

2B: Reyez, E Valdez (DH)

SS: DHam (mayer?)

3B: Meidroth

OF: Rafaela, R Gonzalez, M Contreras (Anthony, Rosier)

DH: Hickey, Kavadas

[Bellhorn04]

Hard to go LRLR with the best 2 guys being Casas and Raffy...

 

Duran

Grissom

Raffy

Casas

Story

Masa

O'Neillll

Abreu

Wong

 

Looks about as good as any.

[mvp 78]

Looks about as good as any.

 

Grissom has a higher projected OPS, but I'm not sure you'd want to put a younger player in the leadoff spot right away. Also, Duran's projection is way under what he did last year.

[moonslav59]

Grissom has a higher projected OPS, but I'm not sure you'd want to put a younger player in the leadoff spot right away. Also, Duran's projection is way under what he did last year.

 

The 2 slot is considered the sacred slot, in modern times.

 

I'm not sure Grissom is best placed there, either, at least to start the season.

 

If we are going to go back-to-back with 2 lefties, just do it 1-2 (Duran, Devers), not 3-4 (Devers, Casas.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not worried too much about our lefty-heavy order, since most pitchers are righties. Plus, bullpen match-ups in the late innings usually mean the games are at least close.

 

But I do not want a big righty whiffer in the middle, sandwiched around our best batters -- Devers and Casas. So what if they walk a lot getting pitched around; it won't matter if the next guy strikes out.

 

Basically, my ideal line-up has contact men like Yoshida -- and Grissom, if his rep translates to a full MLB season -- on base in front of Story and O'Neill.

 

Duran

Devers

Grissom

Casas

Yoshida

Story

Abreu

O'Neill

Wong

[mvp 78]

The 2 slot is considered the sacred slot, in modern times.

 

I'm not sure Grissom is best placed there, either, at least to start the season.

 

If we are going to go back-to-back with 2 lefties, just do it 1-2 (Duran, Devers), not 3-4 (Devers, Casas.)

 

I initially had Devers at 2 and Story at 3, but liked this lineup better. Sorry.

[Nick]

Various fWAR projections for our rotation:

 

The BAT

2.2 Pivetta

2.1 Bello

2.1 Giolito

1.9 Crawford

1.8 Houck

 

ATC

2.2 Bello

2.1 Pivetta

2.1 Giolito

1.7 Crawford

1.6 Houck

 

Steamer

2.5 Bello

2.3 Giolito

2.0 Pivetta

1.8 Houck

1.7 Crawford

 

ZIPS

2.5 Giolito

2.3 Bello

1.6 Crawford

1.3 Pivetta

1.2 Houck

 

Average:

2.2 Bello

2.2 Giolito

1.9 Pivetta

1.7 Crawford

1.6 Houck

 

Highest:

2.5 Bello

2.5 Giolito

2.2 Pivetta

1.9 Crawford

1.8 Houck

 

 

How do we stack up vs other AL East teams?

 

(mlb.com had projected starting rotation. Whitlock was there instead of Houck)

[mvp 78]

How do we stack up vs other AL East teams?

 

(mlb.com had projected starting rotation. Whitlock was there instead of Houck)

 

5th

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

How do we stack up vs other AL East teams?

 

(mlb.com had projected starting rotation. Whitlock was there instead of Houck)

 

Stack -- as in a stack of hotcakes?

 

Right at the bottom of the stack, the coldest flapjack initially out of the pan, before it was at the right temp... a little raw for the kids, but dad will still eat (pay for) it, if it's drowned in enough syrup (PR dept).

[moonslav59]

It's our weakest area, for sure.

[mvp 78]

Per FanGraphs:

Jays - 12.5

Yanks - 12.4

O's - 10.9

Rays - 10.7 (1/2 year Baz, 1/2 year Bradley)

Sox - 10.3

 

If the O's and Rays weren't facing significant injuries at the moment, the Sox would be left in the dust.

[moonslav59]

Per FanGraphs:

Jays - 12.5

Yanks - 12.4

O's - 10.9

Rays - 10.7 (1/2 year Baz, 1/2 year Bradley)

Sox - 10.3

 

If the O's and Rays weren't facing significant injuries at the moment, the Sox would be left in the dust.

 

Not real big differentials, here.

[mvp 78]

Not real big differentials, here.

 

It's only the top 5 starters.

 

However, 12.5 would be about 8th best starting staff from '23 while 10.3 would be 18th. Jays and Yanks project to have some of the best rotations in all of baseball. The other 3 will be in the squishy middle. Only 2.3 fWAR separated 10th and 20th place teams last year. The real dropoff is when you get to the dregs of the league where the rotations will get 5 or less fWAR. Half the league were between 9.1-11.7 fWAR. That's probably where the Sox are again. Averagish.

[moonslav59]

It's only the top 5 starters.

 

 

Is Whitlock, Wink, Fitts, Walter, Murphy and others all that much worse than other ALE teams 6-10 SP"ers?

 

I would not say we are better, but we might be close.

[moonslav59]

Sow are waiting for the price to drop on Monty, but if it does, other teams will join in the bidding.

 

Sounds like another swing and miss being tee'd up.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/latest-on-red-sox-jordan-montgomery.html

[mvp 78]

Is Whitlock, Wink, Fitts, Walter, Murphy and others all that much worse than other ALE teams 6-10 SP"ers?

 

I would not say we are better, but we might be close.

 

I don't want Walter starting any games this year. I haven't seen Fitts pitch in AAA so I can't comment. Winckowski is a bullpen arm only.

 

I may want Gambrell starting more than Murphy.

[Nick]

Per FanGraphs:

Jays - 12.5

Yanks - 12.4

O's - 10.9

Rays - 10.7 (1/2 year Baz, 1/2 year Bradley)

Sox - 10.3

 

If the O's and Rays weren't facing significant injuries at the moment, the Sox would be left in the dust.

 

Not to be an ass, but how many games separate the Sox from the Jays based on these numbers?

[moonslav59]

I don't want Walter starting any games this year. I haven't seen Fitts pitch in AAA so I can't comment. Winckowski is a bullpen arm only.

 

I may want Gambrell starting more than Murphy.

 

I agree, but how worse off are our 6-10 SP'ers than other ALE teams. I'm sure they have guys they want to keep in the pen or are serious question marks, too.

 

Again, I have no idea how ours compare. The less we use these guys the better.

[moonslav59]

Okay, so our SP'ing is ranked dead last in the ALE.

 

SP MLB

6. NYY 13.5

7. TOR 13.4

13. TBR 12.3

16. BAL 12.2

18. BOS 11.8

 

RP

8. TBR 3.6

11. TOR 3.3

16. BOS 2.8

19. NYY 2.5

27. BAL 1.4

 

SP+RP: BOS 14.6 (4th in ALE) and BAL 13.6 (Last in ALE.)

 

We are also ranked... (projected team fWAR)

 

Red = best in ALE

Blue = worst in ALE

 

T 26th at C 1.5 (1. BAL 5.3, 2. TOR 4.9, 11. NYY 3.5, 21. TBR 2.4)

17th at 2B 2.6 (4. NYY 4.0, 10. TBR 3.4, 13. BAL 3.0, 19. TOR 2.5)

16th at CF 2.7 (2. NYY 5.0, 10. BAL 3.1, 13. TOR 2.9, 18. TBR 2.6)

15th at RF 2.1 (2. NYY 6.4, 6. TOR 2.9, 11. TBR 2.6, 13. BAL 2.4)

14th at SS 3.0 (5. BAL 4.3, 6. TOR 4.3, 13. NYY 3.1, 17. TBR 2.8)

11th at LF 2.5 (2. NYY 3.4, 3. TBR 3.3, 10. TOR 2.6, 15. BAL 2.3)

10th at DH 1.6 (3. NYY 2.4, 5. TOR 1.8, 6. TBR 1.7, 9. BAL 1.7)

8th at 1B 2.6 (4. TBR 3.7, 5. TOR 3.2, 15. BAL 1.8, 17. NYY 1.7)

4th at 3B 4.3 (6. BAL 4.1, 9. TBR 3.8, 12. NYY 2.8, 24. TOR 2.1)

 

We are worst at 4 slots, including the rotation.

 

We are best at 1 slot (3B.)

 

[Deja Doh]

If the Yankees add Snell, without a quality addition, the Sox will be lucky to go 72-90. The team has not been improved at all.

[moonslav59]

If the Yankees add Snell, without a quality addition, the Sox will be lucky to go 72-90. The team has not been improved at all.

 

So, the Yanks will beat the Sox 5 more times with Snell?

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Right-hander Bryan Mata has been shut down due to a pulled hamstring, Alex Cora told reporters. A timetable for Mata’s return is not yet clear. The 24-year-old right-hander has not yet made his big league debut but figured to enter Spring Training with a strong chance to earn a job in the club’s bullpen this spring. Mata does not have options remaining, meaning that he must be carried on the club’s active roster or else designated for assignment and exposed to waivers, running the risk that a rival club would claim him. If Mata’s absence proves to be a lengthy one, of course, he could open the season on the 15- or 60-day injured list, thereby delaying the need for Boston to make a decision regarding his future.

 

Yoshida revealed that he underwent surgery on his jaw shortly after the 2023 season. According to Yoshida, the issue didn’t “necessarily” impact him from a baseball perspective during the 2023 season, though he noted that the surgery alleviated discomfort that nagged him during everyday use of his jaw. Yoshida appeared in 140 games for Boston during his first MLB season last year, slashing a respectable .289/.338/.445 in the first year of his five-year, $90MM pact with the Red Sox. Yoshida figures to look to improve on his 2023 campaign this season after he slowed down a bit in the second half last year,

[notin]

So, the Yanks will beat the Sox 5 more times with Snell?

 

Apparently six more times. Lofty expectations from one pitcher in 4 series. Shows what a pathetic manager Boone is.

[moonslav59]

I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to feel some optimism creeping into my blood.

[notin]

I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to feel some optimism creeping into my blood.

 

I think Giolito-Bello-Pivetta-Crawford is a better front for than many want to accept. Granted, always room for improvement, especially since the only names being bandied about for the #5 spot are names much better at anchoring the bullpen.

 

And to double down on that misstep, no names are mentioned to backfill the bullpen. That (lack of a) plan failed last year and in 2022.

 

“Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss…”

[jad]

I hate to admit it, but I'm starting to feel some optimism creeping into my blood.

 

Are you high?