A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[moonslav59]

Sox and Casas have had extension talks. Casas indicates the Sox did not come close to what he wants. No surprise, here.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/red-sox-triston-casas-have-discussed-possible-extension.html

[Randy Red Sox]

Sox and Casas have had extension talks. Casas indicates the Sox did not come close to what he wants. No surprise, here.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/02/red-sox-triston-casas-have-discussed-possible-extension.html

 

exactly

[dgalehouse]

" Locking up" your young players is not always as easy as it sounds. If these players have enough confidence in themselves , they can see the money that lies ahead in arbitration and free agency. You are not going to be able to extend them with some mediocre or low ball offer.

[notin]

" Locking up" your young players is not always as easy as it sounds. If these players have enough confidence in themselves , they can see the money that lies ahead in arbitration and free agency. You are not going to be able to extend them with some mediocre or low ball offer.

 

… unless you run the Braves…

[Larry Cook]

Are we really making up nick names already? This team hasn’t even played one game yet and we have already moved into aligning ourselves as supporters or haters of Breslow?

 

What did we expect him to do in his first offseason? Sign Yamamoto or Ohtani? Or is it the other free agents that the other 29 teams haven’t signed either?

 

It’s painstakingly obvious ownership has given him a budget to operate under. And all trades he’s made with the Sale trade aside as brought in what this organization significantly lacks. In the absence of ownership telling him to go big after free agents the only other thing he can do is draft, and he hasn’t even had one yet.

 

Look, it’s a free country, but calling him “Bres-slow” at this point just seems a little ridiculous.

 

One of the reporters had said the budget was reduced to 200 million this year. Have you heard any different?

[moonslav59]

One of the reporters had said the budget was reduced to 200 million this year. Have you heard any different?

 

I don't think anyone knows, and if you asked each of the many "honchos," you'd probably get different answers from each.

 

If it's $200M, cots has us $10M under. Spotrac has us about $15M under.

 

Maybe, trading Jansen would allow us to sign Monty, but I doubt that happens.

[Duran Is The Man]

I don't think anyone knows, and if you asked each of the many "honchos," you'd probably get different answers from each.

 

If it's $200M, cots has us $10M under. Spotrac has us about $15M under.

 

Maybe, trading Jansen would allow us to sign Monty, but I doubt that happens.

 

What conceivable reason other than greed would they limit the budget to $200M?

[notin]

I don't think anyone knows, and if you asked each of the many "honchos," you'd probably get different answers from each.

 

If it's $200M, cots has us $10M under. Spotrac has us about $15M under.

 

Maybe, trading Jansen would allow us to sign Monty, but I doubt that happens.

 

 

And maybe trading Jansen would make ownership think “Now this team isn’t good enough to keep investing in” and then they pass on Montgomery…

[moonslav59]

What conceivable reason other than greed would they limit the budget to $200M?

 

Greed is the American way.

 

Except for baseball.

[moonslav59]

And maybe trading Jansen would make ownership think “Now this team isn’t good enough to keep investing in” and then they pass on Montgomery…

 

They would be a tandem choice.

[moonslav59]

They would be a tandem choice.

 

Or, just have a fire sale on all 1 year guys.

[jad]

Liam Freakin' Hendricks, baby! We don't need no stinkin' closer. (at least, once he recovers from his 15th TJ surgery next year maybe). Two-year contract, but he won't play this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Liam Freakin' Hendricks, baby! We don't need no stinkin' closer. (at least, once he recovers from his 15th TJ surgery next year maybe). Two-year contract, but he won't play this year.

 

It's ok, he's working out with Micheal Fulmer in the ghost gym that Sale, Paxton, Story and Mondesi haunted last year... or was it the year before?

 

Remember, Sam and Tom said our players returning after the trade deadline will be better than anyone they could actually deal for. Wait, do they mean this summer or next?

[mvp 78]

Liam Freakin' Hendricks, baby! We don't need no stinkin' closer. (at least, once he recovers from his 15th TJ surgery next year maybe). Two-year contract, but he won't play this year.

 

This is his first TJS. Was Hendriks considered injury prone at some point?

 

The second time is generally the career killer.

 

People that have had it more that 2 times:

 

Jason Isringhausen 3 TJS, 90 IP, -0.6 fWAR after 3rd surgery

Josh Johnson 3 TJS, no MLB innings since 2nd TJS

Jonny Venters 3 TJS, 42 MLB innings -0.1 fWAR after 3rd surgery

[moonslav59]

As much as we have crapped on Sale and Paxton, the last couple years, they were 4th and 5th in SP IP for the team, last year and had the 3rd and 4th best ERAs out of our 8 SP'ers with 7 plus starts.

 

Combined, they started 39 games and were 1 & 1/3 of an inning from 200 IP. That seems hard to replace by Gio, as the most he can start is maybe 33-34 games. However, those two are not the only SP'ers we lost and need to replace.

 

(Team SP ERA: 4.68 as a reference point)

4.30 Sale 20 GS/103 IP

4.50 Paxton 19 GS/96 IP

6.26 Kluber 9 GS/42 IP

plus 16 GS'd by openers and the likes of Dermody & Garza

 

In the 47 GS by Sale, Paxton & Kluber, they combined for a 4.72 ERA (126 ER in 240.1 IP). That is slightly higher than the team SP ERA.

 

The numbers for those 16 scrub starts:

5.47 ERA (24.2 IP and 15 ERs)

They averages about 1 1/2 IP per start, which really taxed the pen, mightily, and often the opener was a RP'er.

 

So, who gets the 47 GS lost plus the 16 odd starts? That's 62 GS to replace. (4.79 ERA in those 62 GS.)

 

Here is my stab at the question, assuming everyone is healthy.

 

Perfect world: (2023 ERAs as SP'ers)

+32 Giolito 4.88

+14 Pivetta (16>30) 4.66

+7 Houck (21>28) 5.01

+6 Crawford (23>29) 4.51

+3 Bello (28>31) 4.24

 

It's nearly impossible to use just 5 SP'ers over a season, so I know this won't happen, but this may show we can come close to the same sucky numbers our rotation put up, last year, or even better, assuming Gio snaps out of his funk, and nobody shits the bed in '24.

 

Who is the 6th starter?

Whitlock?

Winckowski?

Criswell?

Murphy/Walter/Fitts?

 

I think one key to winning more than expected is to limit the starts by anyone below those 5 SP'ers.

 

 

[notin]

This is his first TJS. Was Hendriks considered injury prone at some point?

 

The second time is generally the career killer.

 

People that have had it more that 2 times:

 

Jason Isringhausen 3 TJS, 90 IP, -0.6 fWAR after 3rd surgery

Josh Johnson 3 TJS, no MLB innings since 2nd TJS

Jonny Venters 3 TJS, 42 MLB innings -0.1 fWAR after 3rd surgery

 

Eovaldi had his second one nine years ago, so he really did beat those odds. But it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for him…

[Bellhorn04]

Eovaldi had his second one nine years ago, so he really did beat those odds. But it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for him…

 

Hasn't been bad, either. 2 World Series rings and $120 million in contracts.

[notin]

As much as we have crapped on Sale and Paxton, the last couple years, they were 4th and 5th in SP IP for the team, last year and had the 3rd and 4th best ERAs out of our 8 SP'ers with 7 plus starts.

 

Combined, they started 39 games and were 1 & 1/3 of an inning from 200 IP. That seems hard to replace by Gio, as the most he can start is maybe 33-34 games. However, those two are not the only SP'ers we lost and need to replace.

 

(Team SP ERA: 4.68 as a reference point)

4.30 Sale 20 GS/103 IP

4.50 Paxton 19 GS/96 IP

6.26 Kluber 9 GS/42 IP

plus 16 GS'd by openers and the likes of Dermody & Garza

 

In the 47 GS by Sale, Paxton & Kluber, they combined for a 4.72 ERA (126 ER in 240.1 IP). That is slightly higher than the team SP ERA.

 

The numbers for those 16 scrub starts:

5.47 ERA (24.2 IP and 15 ERs)

They averages about 1 1/2 IP per start, which really taxed the pen, mightily, and often the opener was a RP'er.

 

So, who gets the 47 GS lost plus the 16 odd starts? That's 62 GS to replace. (4.79 ERA in those 62 GS.)

 

Here is my stab at the question, assuming everyone is healthy.

 

Perfect world: (2023 ERAs as SP'ers)

+32 Giolito 4.88

+14 Pivetta (16>30) 4.66

+7 Houck (21>28) 5.01

+6 Crawford (23>29) 4.51

+3 Bello (28>31) 4.24

 

It's nearly impossible to use just 5 SP'ers over a season, so I know this won't happen, but this may show we can come close to the same sucky numbers our rotation put up, last year, or even better, assuming Gio snaps out of his funk, and nobody shits the bed in '24.

 

Who is the 6th starter?

Whitlock?

Winckowski?

Criswell?

Murphy/Walter/Fitts?

 

I think one key to winning more than expected is to limit the starts by anyone below those 5 SP'ers.

 

 

 

The Sox will mend at least 10 SP.

 

Right now Bello, Pivetta, Giolito, Crawford, and Houck are the top 5.

 

 

Annoyingly, 6 and 7 appear to be Whitlock and Winckowski. Because - why have a bullpen?

 

That leaves Criswell, Walter, and Murphy as the only other starters on the 40 man, and calling Murphy a starter is such a stretch it makes me ignore that I listed Walter.

 

They really, really need starter depth. I know they have some non-40 man options. But an experienced one won’t kill this team. If the Nationals can sign Zack Davies to a minor league deal, can the Sox get a pitcher to sign one as well?

[notin]

Hasn't been bad, either. 2 World Series rings and $120 million in contracts.

 

He’s had numerous injuries. I was talking about the physical toll the man takes…

[moonslav59]

The Sox will mend at least 10 SP.

 

Right now Bello, Pivetta, Giolito, Crawford, and Houck are the top 5.

 

 

Annoyingly, 6 and 7 appear to be Whitlock and Winckowski. Because - why have a bullpen?

 

That leaves Criswell, Walter, and Murphy as the only other starters on the 40 man, and calling Murphy a starter is such a stretch it makes me ignore that I listed Walter.

 

They really, really need starter depth. I know they have some non-40 man options. But an experienced one won’t kill this team. If the Nationals can sign Zack Davies to a minor league deal, can the Sox get a pitcher to sign one as well?

They can add Fitts (or Gambrell), once they have an IL placement, DFA Mata, Jacques or send Slaten back. [/b]

[notin]

They can add Fitts (or Gambrell), once they have an IL placement, DFA Mata, Jacques or send Slaten back. [/b]

 

I know they can add people. But how about an arm or two on a minor league deal that has actually pitched in MLB before? Depth is a big, big deal…

[mvp 78]

As much as we have crapped on Sale and Paxton, the last couple years, they were 4th and 5th in SP IP for the team, last year and had the 3rd and 4th best ERAs out of our 8 SP'ers with 7 plus starts.

 

Combined, they started 39 games and were 1 & 1/3 of an inning from 200 IP. That seems hard to replace by Gio, as the most he can start is maybe 33-34 games.

 

 

He has thrown over 160 innings every year since 2018 except for 2020. Last year he threw 184. It wouldn't be unbelievable for him to match the innings that Paxton and Sale threw last year on his own. It's really not saying much.

[mvp 78]

Eovaldi had his second one nine years ago, so he really did beat those odds. But it hasn’t exactly been smooth sailing for him…

 

That's why I said "generally." Taillon had his second as well. Each surgery just compounds the risk of being able to come back healthy.

[mvp 78]

The Sox will mend at least 10 SP.

 

Right now Bello, Pivetta, Giolito, Crawford, and Houck are the top 5.

 

 

Annoyingly, 6 and 7 appear to be Whitlock and Winckowski. Because - why have a bullpen?

 

That leaves Criswell, Walter, and Murphy as the only other starters on the 40 man, and calling Murphy a starter is such a stretch it makes me ignore that I listed Walter.

 

They really, really need starter depth. I know they have some non-40 man options. But an experienced one won’t kill this team. If the Nationals can sign Zack Davies to a minor league deal, can the Sox get a pitcher to sign one as well?

 

Boyd

Teheran

Velasquez

Lauer

 

Names running out for the bottom tier.

[mvp 78]

Monty

Snell

Clevinger

Lorenzen

Ryu

German

Greinke

Syndergaard

Hill

Cueto

Odorizzi

Kuechel

Keller

Urias

Bauer

[notin]

Boyd

Teheran

Velasquez

Lauer

 

Names running out for the bottom tier.

 

Boyd is already out with TJ. Velasquez is out as well.

 

I would have zero issues with Lauer and Teheran on MiLB deals…

[notin]

That's why I said "generally." Taillon had his second as well. Each surgery just compounds the risk of being able to come back healthy.

 

I’m more shocked that Eovaldi got 9 years out of his second TJ…

[mvp 78]

Boyd is already out with TJ. Velasquez is out as well.

 

I would have zero issues with Lauer and Teheran on MiLB deals…

 

I haven't paid much attention to the bottom of the barrel.

[mvp 78]

I’m more shocked that Eovaldi got 9 years out of his second TJ…

 

660 innings. Maybe coming close to an end if the 600 innings rule is correct?

[Bellhorn04]

660 innings. Maybe coming close to an end if the 600 innings rule is correct?

 

Hopefully there are exceptions.