A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Nick]

Good summary, Moon

 

So our starting point is this; I think this is what the management is banking on to keep us competitive while waiting results on our pitching staff.

 

CC Wong (waiting on Teel)

1B Casas

2B Grissom

3B Devers

SS Story (waiting on Mayer)

LF Duran

CF Rafaela (waiting on Anthony)

RF Abreu

DH Yoshida

Super Utility Rafaela

 

We only have $70M committed to 3 players. I can see either Yoshida or Story being traded along with some cash at some point.

 

SP Giolito (1 yr deal unless he has a bad year)

SP Bello (let's hope he stays healthy)

SP Pivetta (final year, if he has a break out year, he's gone, maybe he'll come back with a mediocre year at lower price)

SP Kutter (I think the management is high on him)

SP Houck (no matter what any of you say, HE thinks HE's a starter)

SP Whitlock (talk is cheap but all indication is he's stronger and healthy, if he breaks down one more time, I'm jumping off his bandwagon)

SP Winckowski (I don't see anyway he's a starter despite some optimism by our baseball people)

 

I know most of you are very negative and understandably so.

 

I guess my optimism is on our youth and the baseball people that's been brought into the organization, especially on the pitching side. Theo addition won't hurt.

 

Maybe I'm just weird but I'm looking forward to seeing our position players. Spring Training is critical in terms of NONE of our pitchers getting hurt.

 

It really is a WAIT AND SEE time. How John Henry reacts to this year will be telling....the final straw.

Edited February 4, 2024 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Good summary, Moon

 

So our starting point is this; I think this is what the management is banking on to keep us competitive while waiting results on our pitching staff.

 

CC Wong (waiting on Teel)

1B Casas

2B Grissom

3B Devers

SS Story (waiting on Mayer)

LF Duran

CF Rafaela (waiting on Anthony)

RF Abreu

DH Yoshida

Super Utility Rafaela

 

We only have $70M committed to 3 players. I can see either Yoshida or Story being traded along with some cash at some point.

 

SP Giolito (1 yr deal unless he has a bad year)

SP Bello (let's hope he stays healthy)

SP Pivetta (final year, if he has a break out year, he's gone, maybe he'll come back with a mediocre year at lower price)

SP Kutter (I think the management is high on him)

SP Houck (no matter what any of you say, HE thinks HE's a starter)

SP Whitlock (talk is cheap but all indication is he's stronger and healthy, if he breaks down one more time, I'm jumping off his bandwagon)

SP Winckowski (I don't see anyway he's a starter despite some optimism by our baseball people)

 

I know most of you are very negative and understandably so.

 

I guess my optimism is on our youth and the baseball people that's been brought into the organization, especially on the pitching side. Theo addition won't hurt.

 

Maybe I'm just weird but I'm looking forward to seeing our position players. Spring Training is critical in terms of NONE of our pitchers getting hurt.

 

It really is a WAIT AND SEE time. How John Henry reacts to this year will be telling....the final straw.

 

It's been over 70 for a week straight, here near Houston, so I guess some spring fever is setting in.

 

I think there will be a lot of enjoyable things to watch.

 

I do think it is wishful thinking on our rotation, but I've got that wrong a few times over the years, and maybe 2024 is the next one.

 

I like our line-up.

 

Our defense should be better- maybe near average.

 

Our pen looks good and pretty deep.

 

It's just the rotation that looks bad.

 

I know: it's like saying you are in excellent health, except for the brain tumor.

[moonslav59]

A while ago, I posted a breakdown of the best, somewhat long, stretches of good to excellent starting pitching by 6 of our current pitchers: Bello, Gio, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and to a lesser extent Whitlock. There is some reason to think, they could stretch this out to a full season of good pitching. my worry is that we are hoping than 3-4 of them can all do it at the same time, while a 1-2 of the others don't suck.

 

It just seems like way too much to hope for.

 

Maybe the rest of the team can take up the slack. Maybe improved defense can help the pitching do better. (Maybe the pitching wasn't as bad as we thought, because our D sucked, last year.)

 

Maybe, maybe, maybe...

[dgalehouse]

We are making lists of mostly guys who were on last year's team. And saying , this lineup looks pretty good. Well, it didn't look too good last year.

[Old Red]

We are making lists of mostly guys who were on last year's team. And saying , this lineup looks pretty good. Well, it didn't look too good last year.

 

Didn’t you hear that Bailey is going to coach up the pitchers better, and the infield D is going to get coached up better. I don’t know who’s going to make up for JT’s, and Duvall’s production though.

[dgalehouse]

Didn’t you hear that Bailey is going to coach up the pitchers better, and the infield D is going to get coached up better. I don’t know who’s going to make up for JT’s, and Duvall’s production though.

 

Red, always remember, it's a tough division. That is always a useful excuse when things go wrong.

[Duran Is The Man]

We are making lists of mostly guys who were on last year's team. And saying , this lineup looks pretty good. Well, it didn't look too good last year.

 

and hoping that nobody gets hurt. one SP goes on the DL for an extended time and this team might struggle to win 70 games. it is a gigantic clusterf*** built by a greedy, egotistical owner and an incompetent front office.

[Larry Cook]

A while ago, I posted a breakdown of the best, somewhat long, stretches of good to excellent starting pitching by 6 of our current pitchers: Bello, Gio, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and to a lesser extent Whitlock. There is some reason to think, they could stretch this out to a full season of good pitching. my worry is that we are hoping than 3-4 of them can all do it at the same time, while a 1-2 of the others don't suck.

 

It just seems like way too much to hope for.

 

Maybe the rest of the team can take up the slack. Maybe improved defense can help the pitching do better. (Maybe the pitching wasn't as bad as we thought, because our D sucked, last year.)

 

Maybe, maybe, maybe...

 

Defensively:

Catcher - Wong and McGuire - maybe just below average to average at best!

1st base - cassas - at best dumpster fire.

2nd base - Grissom - impossible to know. But best case could be average

SS - story - maybe average to a little better than average.

3rd base - devers - dumpster fire

LF - Duran - dumpster fire bring marshmallows.

CF - rafeala - best guess is average to above average

RF - abreau - best guess is average.

 

Our starting pitching is a massive dumpster fire, if our defense gives teams extra outs, we are battling for the first pick in the draft!!!!!!!!

[moonslav59]

We are making lists of mostly guys who were on last year's team. And saying , this lineup looks pretty good. Well, it didn't look too good last year.

 

We were like 5th to 10th in most categories until September. We ended up around 11th in runs and OPS.

 

We need some health and things to go right.

 

We can't just focus on losing JT, Duvall & Dugo: we also lost Kike, Arroyo and other poor hitters.

[moonslav59]

Defensively:

Catcher - Wong and McGuire - maybe just below average to average at best!

1st base - cassas - at best dumpster fire.

2nd base - Grissom - impossible to know. But best case could be average

SS - story - maybe average to a little better than average.

3rd base - devers - dumpster fire

LF - Duran - dumpster fire bring marshmallows.

CF - rafeala - best guess is average to above average

RF - abreau - best guess is average.

 

Our starting pitching is a massive dumpster fire, if our defense gives teams extra outs, we are battling for the first pick in the draft!!!!!!!!

 

For many of these positions, average is way better than 2023.

 

BTW, Story is way better than average on D.

Edited February 4, 2024 by moonslav59

[Randy Red Sox]

For many of these positions, average is way better than 2023.

 

BTW, Story is way better than average on D.

 

but below average at the plate

[moonslav59]

but below average at the plate

 

The post was about D.

 

Yes, Story has been below average in batting, when he has played over the past two years, but over his career- no.

 

Even going by just the last 3 years, among the 29 SSs with 700+ PAs, Story placed 8th in OPS at .770.

[Larry Cook]

For many of these positions, average is way better than 2023.

 

BTW, Story is way better than average on D.

 

Story’s 2023 defense was better then average????

[moonslav59]

Story’s 2023 defense was better then average????

 

Yes. It was astoundingly great.

 

Eye Test: Gold Glove quality

UZR/150: 2nd to G Henderson at +12.8

DRS: 7th but kille everyone in DRS per Inning

8 in 314 innings

10 in 585 Gunnar

16 in 948 Franco

18 in 1279 Swanson

 

Outs Above Average: same thing. He blew everyone away in OAA per inning.

He finished 8th at +8 while playing 1/3 to 1/4 the innings.

 

He was incredible.

 

[mvp 78]

I know most of you are very negative and understandably so.

 

I guess my optimism is on our youth and the baseball people that's been brought into the organization, especially on the pitching side. Theo addition won't hurt.

 

 

For me, it's just that the farm is very barren of pitching talent (ranked 29th). They had opportunities to trade expiring contracts for young pitching and we didn't do it. I'm told that they will trade for a controllable starter, but they haven't done that yet.

 

Revamping a pitching pipeline takes time and right now, I'm not sure they even have the right horses in the stable.

[mvp 78]

A while ago, I posted a breakdown of the best, somewhat long, stretches of good to excellent starting pitching by 6 of our current pitchers: Bello, Gio, Pivetta, Crawford, Houck and to a lesser extent Whitlock. There is some reason to think, they could stretch this out to a full season of good pitching. my worry is that we are hoping than 3-4 of them can all do it at the same time, while a 1-2 of the others don't suck.

 

It just seems like way too much to hope for.

 

Maybe the rest of the team can take up the slack. Maybe improved defense can help the pitching do better. (Maybe the pitching wasn't as bad as we thought, because our D sucked, last year.)

 

Maybe, maybe, maybe...

 

It's just not a reasonable expectation that every pitcher has an optimal season. Some will be better, some will be worse (injury or otherwise). Without adding higher quality arms, the team most likely won't be in a better spot than last year. The best hope is for health and that they aren't relying on bullpen games or openers from Ort/Jacques/et al.

[mvp 78]

We are making lists of mostly guys who were on last year's team. And saying , this lineup looks pretty good. Well, it didn't look too good last year.

 

The bullpen was really good. The lineup was good until the late season swoon. The starting rotation was bad. The defense was atrocious.

 

If the first two stay the same, some work on the margins of the last two could get them above .500. It's not a playoff team though.

[moonslav59]

For me, it's just that the farm is very barren of pitching talent (ranked 29th). They had opportunities to trade expiring contracts for young pitching and we didn't do it. I'm told that they will trade for a controllable starter, but they haven't done that yet.

 

Revamping a pitching pipeline takes time and right now, I'm not sure they even have the right horses in the stable.

 

That is certainly the main reason we can't get over the hump, or even to the top of the hump.

 

We keep "putting it off" another year and snow-jobbing the fans into thinking an effort is being made.

[mvp 78]

and hoping that nobody gets hurt. one SP goes on the DL for an extended time and this team might struggle to win 70 games. it is a gigantic clusterf*** built by a greedy, egotistical owner and an incompetent front office.

 

For all his faults, I'm not sure egotistical is at the top of the list. I think he's spread too thin in too many ventures (absenteeism). He's greedy for sure and has surrounded himself with yes men.

[moonslav59]

It's just not a reasonable expectation that every pitcher has an optimal season. Some will be better, some will be worse (injury or otherwise). Without adding higher quality arms, the team most likely won't be in a better spot than last year. The best hope is for health and that they aren't relying on bullpen games or openers from Ort/Jacques/et al.

 

That's all we got, right now: hope.

 

We need a 2013 type confluence of good luck, good health and some career years mixed in.

 

We have 6 pitchers who have some hope as starters. All but maybe Whitlock have some pretty long stretches of pitching like a solid #2 or #3. They pretty much all have to gel at once, and for longer stretches than ever before. (Gio excepted- he's had some good full seasons.)

[Bellhorn04]

For all his faults, I'm not sure egotistical is at the top of the list. I think he's spread too thin in too many ventures (absenteeism). He's greedy for sure and has surrounded himself with yes men.

 

This is where the return of Theo is hopefully a positive sign - just the fact that Henry acknowledged it was a good idea.

[mvp 78]

Defensively:

Catcher - Wong and McGuire - maybe just below average to average at best!

1st base - cassas - at best dumpster fire.

2nd base - Grissom - impossible to know. But best case could be average

SS - story - maybe average to a little better than average.

3rd base - devers - dumpster fire

LF - Duran - dumpster fire bring marshmallows.

CF - rafeala - best guess is average to above average

RF - abreau - best guess is average.

 

Our starting pitching is a massive dumpster fire, if our defense gives teams extra outs, we are battling for the first pick in the draft!!!!!!!!

 

This team was pretty bad last year. Defensively, they should be better than last year. They won't even pick in the top 10 this year. They would really have to drop off substantially to be one of the dregs of MLB. They are just a mediocre ballclub. Purgatory.

[mvp 78]

but below average at the plate

 

Story's offense will be better than 2023 Yu Chang and Kiké. I'm really going out on a limb there.

[mvp 78]

That is certainly the main reason we can't get over the hump, or even to the top of the hump.

 

We keep "putting it off" another year and snow-jobbing the fans into thinking an effort is being made.

 

At least more fans are waking up about it.

[mvp 78]

This is where the return of Theo is hopefully a positive sign - just the fact that Henry acknowledged it was a good idea.

 

Yeah, but my concern is that the initial press releases and discussion points from FSG all mentioned him working with all the FSG holdings. I just want him working with the Sox. I don't want Theo wasting time on the Penguins.

[Old Red]

Yeah, but my concern is that the initial press releases and discussion points from FSG all mentioned him working with all the FSG holdings. I just want him working with the Sox. I don't want Theo wasting time on the Penguins.

 

The word I just got was he would be mostly working out of his house in Connecticut. I don’t think he is going to have really much to do with the daily running of the Red Sox unless he puts a few bugs in JH ear.

[Bellhorn04]

Yeah, but my concern is that the initial press releases and discussion points from FSG all mentioned him working with all the FSG holdings. I just want him working with the Sox. I don't want Theo wasting time on the Penguins.

 

From the sounds of it this is what Theo wanted - a new challenge.

 

But the man's main expertise, experience and achievement is obviously in baseball. And I like the fact that he and Crag have already worked together and have a good relationship.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

We need a 2013 type confluence of good luck, good health and some career years mixed in.

 

 

Posters have been clinging to that once-in-a-franchise hope since I joined this forum after the '19 season.

 

"We" -- as in talksox -- need to move on. Ortiz, Pedroia, Ellsbury and Lester aren't the returning core of any Red Sox team the past five years.

 

If a miracle is to happen in '24 and Boston has a winning record and makes the playoffs, it won't be because of comebacks from rehabbing veterans with something to prove. It will be because of the development of young players establishing themselves into bonafide big leaguers -- and even All-Stars.

 

Whether that's realistic or not -- the front office is telling us that's all we got. So let's root root-root for the HOMEGROWN.

[Old Red]

At least more fans are waking up about it.

 

I don’t think at this point unless something major happens between now, and Mar 28 that zRed Sox fans now know what direction the team is taking. It wasn’t all that long ago that fans were all excited about a new HOBO, and a promised full throttle approach. Promises aren’t always made to be kept.

[mvp 78]

The word I just got was he would be mostly working out of his house in Connecticut. I don’t think he is going to have really much to do with the daily running of the Red Sox unless he puts a few bugs in JH ear.

 

I don't need him to run the Sox, I need him to hear what Crag needs and either let Crag go for it or jam it up Henry's flagpole until he says yes.