A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[notin]

Fans aren't going to buy more tickets just to see Theo waving at them from the owner's box.

 

There has to be the acquisition of an impact player to go with this...

 

Jordan Montgomery…

[moonslav59]

Jordan Montgomery…

 

It's not going to be Snell.

 

We aren't trading top prospects for an ace.

 

Cleninger is not going to excite enough fans to make a difference.

 

It does seem like it's Monty or bust.

 

I do think adding Monty gives us enough hope for 2024 to keep interest barely high enough. Bare minimum.

 

Monty, Gio, Bello, Pivetta & Crawford

 

Houk & Whit in the pen as long men

 

Wink as the innings eater middle man

 

Jansen & Martin as the 8/9th innings blood & guts guys.

 

That leaves 3 pen slots for the rest to fight over, and there seems to be enough decent pitchers to fill those 3 slots, very well:

 

Schreiber

Bernardino

Campbell

Slatten (Rule 5 restrictions)

Mata (out of options)

 

Extended depth:

Murphy & Walter

Fitts & Gambrell

Criswell & Weissert

Kelly & Guerrero

 

Long shots:

Benitez, Olivares & Song

 

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I totally agree.

 

The Theo addition is not going to placate any fans, if we lose.

 

It might help raise some hopes, right now, for some, but if nothing more is added to the roster, this winter, most fans will not be any more joyful.

 

If you think posters here are bitter this winter -- after the last deadline, after the last winter, after the deadline before that, after the... Dombrowski Era -- you should see the comments section of the Boston Globe article about Epstein's return.

 

It has to be about 80% negative, mainly because Theo can't pitch!

 

Forget about any bridges; the Red Sox burned all theirs already -- and used TNT to level all the concrete piles, posts, footings and piers... plus, they stocked the river with crocodiles and piranhas.

[notin]

It's not going to be Snell.

 

We aren't trading top prospects for an ace.

 

Cleninger is not going to excite enough fans to make a difference.

 

It does seem like it's Monty or bust.

 

I do think adding Monty gives us enough hope for 2024 to keep interest barely high enough. Bare minimum.

 

Monty, Gio, Bello, Pivetta & Crawford

 

Houk & Whit in the pen as long men

 

Wink as the innings eater middle man

 

Jansen & Martin as the 8/9th innings blood & guts guys.

 

That leaves 3 pen slots for the rest to fight over, and there seems to be enough decent pitchers to fill those 3 slots, very well:

 

Schreiber

Bernardino

Campbell

Slatten (Rule 5 restrictions)

Mata (out of options)

 

Extended depth:

Murphy & Walter

Fitts & Gambrell

Criswell & Weissert

Kelly & Guerrero

 

Long shots:

Benitez, Olivares & Song

 

 

 

I think you’re too far down on Edward Cabrera.

 

I think he has raw stuff to be an ace and I think (re:hope) Bailey can do for him what he did for Gausman. I’d give up Duran for Cabrera yesterday, but Miami’s top priority is a shortstop, and presumably not for one year. Teams that could definitely use Duran include Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Anaheim, Detroit, Kansas City, Washington, and San Diego. But what shortstop would any of them party with for Duran that’s good enough to snag Cabrera? (And why not just go get Cabrera with said shortstop, since they probably all need a pitcher or two as well.)

[moonslav59]

If you think posters here are bitter this winter -- after the last deadline, after the last winter, after the deadline before that, after the... Dombrowski Era -- you should see the comments section of the Boston Globe article about Epstein's return.

 

It has to be about 80% negative, mainly because Theo can't pitch!

 

Forget about any bridges; the Red Sox burned all theirs already -- and used TNT to level all the concrete piles, posts, footings and piers... plus, they stocked the river with crocodiles and piranhas.

 

I agree that the vast majority see the FO for what it is: a sham.

 

The Theo addition barely makes a dent in that impression. Unless the results change, or the perception of the team's strength- here and now i proves, it won't matter.

 

I still think that 2021 team allowed the FO enough cover to keep many fans "fooled" for a year or two longer than had we sucked in '21, but the jig is up, now.

 

The thing is, I'm not sure they realize 80-90% of the fanbase knows this. In some ways, I think if this is true, it's even worse than thinking they know but just don't care enough to change things, this year or next.

 

They have to know, right?

[moonslav59]

I think you’re too far down on Edward Cabrera.

 

I think he has raw stuff to be an ace and I think (re:hope) Bailey can do for him what he did for Gausman. I’d give up Duran for Cabrera yesterday, but Miami’s top priority is a shortstop, and presumably not for one year. Teams that could definitely use Duran include Houston, Cleveland, Cincinnati, Anaheim, Detroit, Kansas City, Washington, and San Diego. But what shortstop would any of them party with for Duran that’s good enough to snag Cabrera? (And why not just go get Cabrera with said shortstop, since they probably all need a pitcher or two as well.)

 

Too many ifs and hopes for my liking.

 

I can't stop thinking about DHern when Cabrera talk comes up. I know not all high K & BB are doomed to failure, but Cabrera has had a pretty long time to at least show improvement on the BB rate, and seems to be getting worse- not better.

 

He'll be 26, soon, and that is still young enough to turn a corner, but is BB/9 and WHIP was worse than his career numbers in 2023. I'm not sure Bailey can do anything for him. If he can, then maybe he can just do it for Whit, Houck and others we have, right now.

 

Career:

ECab: 10.1 K/9 and 5.4 BB/9 (197 IP)

DHern: 14.0 K/) and 7.7 BB/9 (85 IP)

 

Note: Out of 3,200 pitchers with 80+ IP over the last 50 years, the K/9 leaders are:

 

15.0 Josh Hader

14.8 Edwin Diaz

14.8 A Chapman

14.2 D Betances

14.2 G Kimbrel

14.1 F Bautista

14.0 DHern

 

Worst BB/9 rates:

8.3 J Briscoe

7.9 S Randolph

7.7 K Coffman

7.7 DHern

 

That being said, I'd like to add ECab to our staff, but not at what you have suggested as the return (Duran.)

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

If all it took to get Ecabrera was Duran, I’d literally drive him to the airport.

[Duran Is The Man]

If you think posters here are bitter this winter -- after the last deadline, after the last winter, after the deadline before that, after the... Dombrowski Era -- you should see the comments section of the Boston Globe article about Epstein's return.

 

It has to be about 80% negative, mainly because Theo can't pitch!

 

Forget about any bridges; the Red Sox burned all theirs already -- and used TNT to level all the concrete piles, posts, footings and piers... plus, they stocked the river with crocodiles and piranhas.

 

well said.

 

they want to be Tampa north because Henry is a cheap greedy bastard. and if Fenway didn't have the history that it does, they'd for sure have Tampa crowds.

[moonslav59]

If all it took to get Ecabrera was Duran, I’d literally drive him to the airport.

 

We do have a glut of LF'ers, and trading Duran does keep Cora from playing him in CF, but for Duran for a pitcher who walked 6 batter per 9, last year is not worth it, to me.

 

For what it's worth, BTV has Duran at 34. 0 and Cabrera at 19.6.

 

It does accept Duran + Mata for Cabrera + AJ Puk. (Having Puk might allow us to trade Jansen's salary and then sign a SP'er.)

 

I'd give them Bernardino & Duran for the two. Trade Jansen to LAD for a nice prospect and sign Monty.

 

Monty

Gio

Bello

Pivetta

Cabrera

 

Crawford

Houk

Whitlock

 

Puk

Martin

Wink

Schreiber

Campbell/Slaten/Mata

[moonslav59]

BTV accepts...

 

To LAD: Jansen & Yorke

 

To MIA: Grove & Duran

 

To BOS: ECabrera, AJ Puk & Berti

[notin]

If all it took to get Ecabrera was Duran, I’d literally drive him to the airport.

 

Opinion is divided on that, which tells me it’s probably a fair deal. Except that Miami needs a shortstop more than they need an outfielder, even one who is probably better than at least two of their three (projected) starters…

[notin]

BTV accepts...

 

To LAD: Jansen & Yorke

 

To MIA: Grove & Duran

 

To BOS: ECabrera, AJ Puk & Berti

 

So Miami makes their SS situation worse? Because right now Berti is their starter according to Roster Resource…

[Hugh2]

I dont care what BTV says, Cabrera offers more upside than Duran does.

 

But I don’t think it’s a good match, and Cabrera wouldn’t be my first choice.

[moonslav59]

So Miami makes their SS situation worse? Because right now Berti is their starter according to Roster Resource…

 

Ho won't be.

 

Hell, we can throw in DHam... LOL.

 

If it were up to me, I'd find a way to get Luzardo or Garrett for Mayer, and let them keep ECab.

[notin]

I dont care what BTV says, Cabrera offers more upside than Duran does.

 

But I don’t think it’s a good match, and Cabrera wouldn’t be my first choice.

 

Henry won’t pay for your first choice.

 

Cabrera might have more upside but until he taps into it, he’s just a guy throwing 97mph who is as likely to walk you as fan you. Reportedly Miami offered him for Justin Turner last year at the deadline…

[moonslav59]

I dont care what BTV says, Cabrera offers more upside than Duran does.

 

But I don’t think it’s a good match, and Cabrera wouldn’t be my first choice.

 

I've never been high on Duran, but if he just repeats 2023 over a full season, his "upside" is better than ECab's, who has never really done squat.

 

(2022 was not too bad, but not Duran good.)

[notin]

Ho won't be.

 

Hell, we can throw in DHam... LOL.

 

If it were up to me, I'd find a way to get Luzardo or Garrett for Mayer, and let them keep ECab.

 

I don’t think DHam is a deal changer.

 

If they would deal Luzardo for Mayer, it might be worth it.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think DHam is a deal changer.

 

If they would deal Luzardo for Mayer, it might be worth it.

 

I think 3 years of Luzardo is about equal to 5 years of Garrett.

 

BTV has...

 

65.4 Luzardo (91 value-26 salary) value: 30 per season

57.7 Garrett (103 value-46 salary) value: 21 per season

 

44.4 Mayer

 

We'd need to add:

22.2 Houck

21.5 Bleis

15.6 Teel

13.8 Rafaela

 

Would you do Mayer & Rafaela for Garrett?

 

Mayer & Bleis for Luzardo?

[Hugh2]

I think 3 years of Luzardo is about equal to 5 years of Garrett.

 

BTV has...

 

65.4 Luzardo (91 value-26 salary) value: 30 per season

57.7 Garrett (103 value-46 salary) value: 21 per season

 

44.4 Mayer

 

We'd need to add:

22.2 Houck

21.5 Bleis

15.6 Teel

13.8 Rafaela

 

Would you do Mayer & Rafaela for Garrett?

 

Mayer & Bleis for Luzardo?

 

Sox have done deals like this in the past and it works out. But it’s always been to make a good team great and put them over the top. Never to make a bad team just good.

 

I wouldn’t prematurely blow our load. This crap team isn’t worth it.

 

I’d rather draft and develop guys, and spend money up to the tax limit.

 

The type of move you’re talking about is something I can see in about two years.

 

Would have been this year if maybe Bloom was better at his job.

[moonslav59]

Sox have done deals like this in the past and it works out. But it’s always been to make a good team great and put them over the top. Never to make a bad team just good.

 

I wouldn’t prematurely blow our load. This crap team isn’t worth it.

 

I’d rather draft and develop guys, and spend money up to the tax limit.

 

The type of move you’re talking about is something I can see in about two years.

 

Would have been this year if maybe Bloom was better at his job.

 

I don't disagree, but I think we could compete in 2024 with Luzardo or Garrett AND Monty.

[notin]

Sox have done deals like this in the past and it works out. But it’s always been to make a good team great and put them over the top. Never to make a bad team just good.

 

I wouldn’t prematurely blow our load. This crap team isn’t worth it.

 

I’d rather draft and develop guys, and spend money up to the tax limit.

 

The type of move you’re talking about is something I can see in about two years.

 

Would have been this year if maybe Bloom was better at his job.

 

I don’t remember the last trade in which the Sox acquired two starting pitchers…

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t remember the last trade in which the Sox acquired two starting pitchers…

 

Workman for Pivetta and Seabold.

[moonslav59]

Here's another one"

 

To LAD: Yorke and Jansen

 

To MIA: Mayer, Rafaela, Wikelman & Grove

 

To BOS: Garrett & Puk

 

With some of the savings from the Jansen trade, maybe we can then sign Monty.

 

I'd even sub Duran for Rafaela & Wikelman, and maybe they add Berti.

[moonslav59]

Workman for Pivetta and Seabold.

 

Yes, Workman & Hembree.

[moonslav59]

We all remember the Pedro, Schilling, Beckett and Sale trades for top pitchers and rings, but another great trade that brought us a SP'er and great catcher was the Slocumb for DLowe & VTek trade.

 

Another was Andrew Miller for ERod (a prospect, at the time.)

 

Jalen Beeks for Eovaldi

 

Going back farther: Mike Paxton, Rick Wise & others for Eckersley (later converted to RP by OAK)

 

Other trades for SP'ers had mixed results:

 

Cespedes for Porcello

Iggy & Montas for Peavy

Lackey for Kelly (later converted to the pen) & Allen Craig

Allen Webster & Rubby DLR for Wade Miley

 

A trip down memory lane...

 

Brady Anderson & Curt Schilling for Mike Biddicker

Reggie Smith & Ken Tatum for Rick Wise & Bernie Carbo

Ken Harrelson, Dick Ellsworth & Juan Pizarro for Sonny Siebert & others,

John Curtis, Lynn McGlothen & Mike Garman for Reggie Cleveland & Diego Segui

Ken Brett, Billy C, Jim Lonborg, & Others for Marty Pattin, Lew Krausse & Tommy Harper

Juan Benitez, Steve Barr and Craig Skok for Fergie Jenkins

Steve Lyons for Tom Seaver

Fred Lynn & Steve Renko for Frank Tanana & Joe Rudi

 

 

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

I don't disagree, but I think we could compete in 2024 with Luzardo or Garrett AND Monty.

 

no chance in hell that Mayer should be traded for luzardo. tightwad Henry simply should have let Breslow sign a top FA SP. Now we need to give up our future SS for the next 6-8 yrs to acquire a top SP??? Give them Story and go with a BBB till Mayer is ready.

[Randy Red Sox]

Workman for Pivetta and Seabold.

 

Seabold was a SP??

[moonslav59]

no chance in hell that Mayer should be traded for luzardo. tightwad Henry simply should have let Breslow sign a top FA SP. Now we need to give up our future SS for the next 6-8 yrs to acquire a top SP??? Give them Story and go with a BBB till Mayer is ready.

 

Monty is not enough.

 

 

Yes, a possible future SS for a top 30 SP;er.

[moonslav59]

Seabold was a SP??

 

He still is.

 

He started 13 games, last year- a career high.

[moonslav59]

The holes in the rotation, SP'er depth and farm SP'ers has been well documented and dissected. I think we all agree that it is our highest need area. I'd say it is our #1 and #2 weakness, in terms of needing at least 2 SP'ers before any other position.

 

The rest of the team may have some areas in question, but all have some sort of hope- now and or in the future.

 

Catcher: Wong and McGuire are not a top 15 tándem in MLB, but they are not awful and still have room to improve. The bigger hope is with the future. Teel could end up being the best Sox homegrown catcher since Fisk. Even if we did not have Teel, the remaining catching prospects look pretty good, too:

Joh Garcia (19 y/o)

Nathan Hickey (24 and may not stick as a catcher)

Brooks Brannon (19 and has a lot to prove)

Stephen Scott may never make the bigs and has Roberto Perez & T Heineman ahead of him.

 

1B: may have the least organization depth of any non pitching position, but it also has our best 24 or younger MLB player in Casas.

Dalbec seems doomed to be a AAAA player.

Jordan has to prove a lot. Kavadas has all but lost any hopes. EValdez may be given a 1Bman mitt, despite being just 5-8.

 

2B: Grissom looks like a very promising 2Bman, but still has to show he belongs. I like his chances. Reyes is a decent back-up and EValdez and Yorke offer some long term depth, despite some defensive limitations. (Story may move back to 2B, someday.)

 

SS: Story is a great defender, but he needs to bring his bat back to respectability. Mayer is a top 50 prospect, who did not really jump up, last season, maybe due to injury. I'm a huge Cespedes fan, but he is far away. Rafaela is a decent SS, but is better in CF.

Zanetello may end up in the OF.

Romero needs to show growth, this year.

Paulino is a super longshot, and is not really a SS.

DHam could be DFA'd. Alcantara may end up at 2B.

 

3B: Devers has a lot of years left on his deal. He may end up at 1B or DH, someday, but not likely this year or next.

Meidroth offers some hope.

 

OF: We seem loaded with LF'er at the big league level (Yoshida, O'Neill, Duran & Refsnyder,) but we have some young ML ready or near ML ready OF'ers knocking loudly on the door:

Rafaela: Great D but questionable O. He is best in CF.

Abreu: Good O promise and okay D. He could play CF and maybe CF.

Anthony (19) might be our most promising prospect and can play CF.

Bleis (19) lost a year to injury, but he still has a lot of promise.

Castro (20) is still promising. (Others mentioned as maybe moving to OF.)

 

So, our 3 weakest non pitching positions: catcher, OF and middle IF seem have our best prospects.