A Realistic View at 2024: Part I

[Old Red]

For fans, the benefit of the Dodger Way is a perennial contender led by favorite players, year after year after year. It used to be like that in Boston.

 

LA has averaged 94 wins for the past 11 seasons -- and that includes 2020, when they only won 43 (most in majors). It used to be like that in Boston.

 

The Dodgers are defined by star players. Like the Red Sox from 1967 through 2019. Kershaw has been there for 16 years. Jansen was there for 12, Turner for 9. Max Muncy and Chris Taylor are still around, having seen the transition to Betts, Freeman, Smith and Ohtani.

 

Maybe the best thing for fans: the Dodgers might not keep every great player, but they have -- and use -- the resources to always replace them with other greats.

 

It used to be like that when Henry and Werner owned the Red Sox.

 

👍👍👍👏.

[Duran Is The Man]

For fans, the benefit of the Dodger Way is a perennial contender led by favorite players, year after year after year. It used to be like that in Boston.

 

LA has averaged 94 wins for the past 11 seasons -- and that includes 2020, when they only won 43 (most in majors). It used to be like that in Boston.

 

The Dodgers are defined by star players. Like the Red Sox from 1967 through 2019. Kershaw has been there for 16 years. Jansen was there for 12, Turner for 9. Max Muncy and Chris Taylor are still around, having seen the transition to Betts, Freeman, Smith and Ohtani.

 

Maybe the best thing for fans: the Dodgers might not keep every great player, but they have -- and use -- the resources to always replace them with other greats.

 

It used to be like that when Henry and Werner owned the Red Sox.

 

Henry would rather have a revolving door of faceless nobodies because....cheap.

[notin]

Henry would rather have a revolving door of faceless nobodies because....cheap.

 

I wouldn’t cater of it worked, but they haven’t made it work yet…

[notin]

For fans, the benefit of the Dodger Way is a perennial contender led by favorite players, year after year after year. It used to be like that in Boston.

 

LA has averaged 94 wins for the past 11 seasons -- and that includes 2020, when they only won 43 (most in majors). It used to be like that in Boston.

 

The Dodgers are defined by star players. Like the Red Sox from 1967 through 2019. Kershaw has been there for 16 years. Jansen was there for 12, Turner for 9. Max Muncy and Chris Taylor are still around, having seen the transition to Betts, Freeman, Smith and Ohtani.

 

Maybe the best thing for fans: the Dodgers might not keep every great player, but they have -- and use -- the resources to always replace them with other greats.

 

It used to be like that when Henry and Werner owned the Red Sox.

 

But when I vote the recent success of the Rays, I’m always Always ALWAYS told (including by you) “but no titles.” So apparently titles are all that matter, at least when it helps your argument.

 

Because the Dodgers aren’t stacking up titles either. They have one, but it was against the Rays, and since the Rays Way didn’t work, that title shouldn’t really count.

 

So really, the Dodgers aren’t that much more successful than the Rays, except when it comes to spending money. They excel there. Yet everyone wants to be the next Dodgers and no one wants to be the next Rays.

 

And then people tell me free agency isn’t about PR. Really?

 

Fine, don’t think of it as public relations. Think of it as Starf***er Foreplay…

[notin]

Maybe the best thing for fans: the Dodgers might not keep every great player, but they have -- and use -- the resources to always replace them with other greats.

 

It used to be like that when Henry and Werner owned the Red Sox.

 

They replaced Corey Seager with Miguel Rojas. They replaced Cody Bellinger with James Outman. They replaced Kenley Jansen with Ethan Phillips.

 

You’ve missed all the things this team has been doing right and focused solely on their spending and then glorified them for it…

[moonslav59]

They replaced Corey Seager with Miguel Rojas. They replaced Cody Bellinger with James Outman. They replaced Kenley Jansen with Ethan Phillips.

 

You’ve missed all the things this team has been doing right and focused solely on their spending and then glorified them for it…

 

I'll take the Sox 11 year and 21 year history over the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants or anyone else.

 

[Old Red]

I'll take the Sox 11 year and 21 year history over the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants or anyone else.

 

 

21 year History yes, but not the here, and NOW.

Edited January 29, 2024 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

You’ve missed all the things this team has been doing {wrong} and focused solely on their spending and then glorified them for it…

 

Buehler's Day off

 

Bauer's excellent signing.

[moonslav59]

I'll take the Sox 11 year and 21 year history over the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants or anyone else.

 

 

Even cherry-picking to the last 6 years, the Sox are one of the top 5 MLB teams to follow, if you weight rings very highly:

 

1 ring, 6 POs, Best record: LAD (2 WS showings)

1 ring, 6 POs, 2nd best record: HOU (3 WS showings)

1 ring, 6 POs, 3rd best record: ATL (1 WS)

0 rings, 5 POs, 4th best record: TBR (1WS)

1 ring, 2 POs and 8th best record: BOS (1 WS)

1 ring, 2 POs, 12th best record: PHI (1)

0 rings, 5 POs, 5th best record: NYY (0)

0 rings, 5 POs, 6th best record: MIL (0)

0 rings, 4 POs, 9th best record: STL (0)

0 rings, 3 POs, 7th best record: CLE (0)

0 rings, 3 POs, 10th best record: MIN (0)

0 rings, 1 POs, 11th best record: SEA (0)

[jad]

If the criticism of the Rays Way is no titles (which I’m constantly reminded of), what’s the benefit of the Dodger Way?

 

Is it because they market them with the slogan “Come see overpriced stars choke in October”?

 

Because they have better players and play better baseball than the RS? That's why I go. If you don't care about watching good baseball, then you might as well stick with fantasy sports.

[jad]

I'll take the Sox 11 year and 21 year history over the Rays, Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Giants or anyone else.

 

 

If all you care about is the past, why not become a Yankees fan?

[moonslav59]

If all you care about is the past, why not become a Yankees fan?

 

1. Where did I ever even hint at only caring about the past?

2. Some other poster blasts me for having too much hope in the future.

3. From your post #4780, it sounds like you should be the one to change your loyalty.

 

I'm not happy about where we are, right now. None of us are. I'm never changing teams. I'll always be a Sox fan and try to watch as many games as possible.

 

You do what you want.

 

I'd rather be a Sox fan, right now, than any other MLB team. That's not saying I'm okay with losing. It's just saying I'm a Sox fan- win or lose.

 

[notin]

Buehler's Day off

 

Bauer's excellent signing.

 

The thing is, the Dodgers are not all about free agency.

 

They absolutely play in that market. But they have a great farm and player development system. And they do a great job dumpster-diving and grabbing utility infielders on other teams that they then turn into All Stars, including Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy and Chris Taylor. They make moves that Sox fans would hate - repeatedly bringing back Jason Heyward (the de facto replacement for Seager now). They pick and choose free agent moments; prior to signing Ohtani and Yamamoto this year, they’ve taken the last year or two off from big contracts while losing Seager, Turner and Scherzer etc.

[Old Red]

1. Where did I ever even hint at only caring about the past?

2. Some other poster blasts me for having too much hope in the future.

3. From your post #4780, it sounds like you should be the one to change your loyalty.

 

I'm not happy about where we are, right now. None of us are. I'm never changing teams. I'll always be a Sox fan and try to watch as many games as possible.

 

You do what you want.

 

I'd rather be a Sox fan, right now, than any other MLB team. That's not saying I'm okay with losing. It's just saying I'm a Sox fan- win or lose.

 

 

🤭🙈🤮!

[moonslav59]

The thing is, the Dodgers are not all about free agency.

 

They absolutely play in that market. But they have a great farm and player development system. And they do a great job dumpster-diving and grabbing utility infielders on other teams that they then turn into All Stars, including Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez, Max Muncy and Chris Taylor. They make moves that Sox fans would hate - repeatedly bringing back Jason Heyward (the de facto replacement for Seager now). They pick and choose free agent moments; prior to signing Ohtani and Yamamoto this year, they’ve taken the last year or two off from big contracts while losing Seager, Turner and Scherzer etc.

 

Indeed. They have even been known to trade good players for prospects or have prospects included in their return packages.

 

It does seem like these recent signings are so outlandish, that they dwarf everything else they do and have done.

 

If I had to bet, I would take the field vs LAD. I'd take the field vs LAD+ PHI. I'd take the field vs LAD, PHI & HOU.

 

I'm not sure I'd go much further.

[moonslav59]

Here are some farm rankings:

 

Fangraphs:

1, CHC

2. BOS

4. TBR

5. TEX

6. LAD

8. BAL

 

Bleacher Report

1. BAL

2. CHC

3. BOS

5. TEX

7. TBR

10. LAD

 

MLB Execs

1. BAL

2. LAD

3. PIT

Votes: CHC, BOS, TEX, NYY

 

[notin]

Indeed. They have even been known to trade good players for prospects or have prospects included in their return packages.

 

It does seem like these recent signings are so outlandish, that they dwarf everything else they do and have done.

 

If I had to bet, I would take the field vs LAD. I'd take the field vs LAD+ PHI. I'd take the field vs LAD, PHI & HOU.

 

I'm not sure I'd go much further.

 

Houston is really the franchise to mimic. They’re like the Dodgers, but with rings.

 

Of course the Astros are stronger adherents to the Rays Way than they are to the Dodgers way…

[moonslav59]

Houston is really the franchise to mimic. They’re like the Dodgers, but with rings.

 

Of course the Astros are stronger adherents to the Rays Way than they are to the Dodgers way…

 

Agreed.

 

Their farm sucks, now, so let's see what happens in the next few years.

 

It was a long window, they created after tanking for several years, but they sustained it, while losing so many key players to free agency, along the way.

[moonslav59]

Houston is really the franchise to mimic. They’re like the Dodgers, but with rings.

 

Of course the Astros are stronger adherents to the Rays Way than they are to the Dodgers way…

 

ATL has a pretty nice set-up, too.

[Nick]

We win it all in 2018 with top payroll.

Our payroll goes up in 2019, again leading the league in payroll.

 

We have a rotation of Price, Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi and E Rod.

It's a star studded team with Betts, Xander, JD, Devers, Beni, JBJ. Paper tiger but all goes to hell.

 

We purposely throw away 2020. Horrendous season is mitigated by the fact it was shortened by COVID.

 

In 2021, we are up 2-1 vs Houston with a home game coming up. It erases bad taste of 2019 and 2020 seasons.

 

Then it's been a s*** show.

 

Maybe all Henry sees is not getting value from signings of Price, Sale, Story and Yoshida along with last 2 years of Kike or throwing good money on the likes of Kluber.

 

He maybe thinking or is convinced more than ever why gamble on big contracts when you can go with young controllable talent that's cheap.

 

Maybe he's looking at the Orioles model and not the Rangers. (2 years of heavy spending for quick turnaround)

Edited January 29, 2024 by Nick

[notin]

ATL has a pretty nice set-up, too.

 

And for some reason, all those Atlanta stars sign dirt cheap extensions. Even the ones they acquire via trade. What is so exciting about Atlanta that players are willing to give up huge chunks of cash to play there? Is there some sort of Waffle House addiction problem rampant in MLB?

Edited January 29, 2024 by notin

[Hugh2]

And for some reason, all those Atlanta stars sign dirt cheap extensions. Even the ones they acquire via trade. What is so exciting about Atlanta that players are willing to give up huge chunks of cash to play there? Is there some sort of Waffle House addiction problem rampant in MLB?

 

They sign extensions early, buying out more team-controlled years. You take a big paycut but you take guaranteed millions with a chance of still hitting free agency around 30. A lot can happen in 5-6 years so that has appeal to a lot of players. There's risk there for the team too.

[moonslav59]

We win it all in 2018 with top payroll.

Our payroll goes up in 2019, again leading the league in payroll.

 

We have a rotation of Price, Sale, Porcello, Eovaldi and E Rod.

It's a star studded team with Betts, Xander, JD, Devers, Beni, JBJ. Paper tiger but all goes to hell.

 

We purposely throw away 2020. Horrendous season is mitigated by the fact it was shortened by COVID.

 

In 2021, we are up 2-1 vs Houston with a home game coming up. It erases bad taste of 2019 and 2020 seasons.

 

Then it's been a s*** show.

 

Maybe all Henry sees is not getting value from signings of Price, Sale, Story and Yoshida along with last 2 years of Kike or throwing good money on the likes of Kluber.

 

He maybe thinking or is convinced more than ever why gamble on big contracts when you can go with young controllable talent that's cheap.

 

Maybe he's looking at the Orioles model and not the Rangers. (2 years of heavy spending for quick turnaround)

 

The O's tanked to get several years of high draft picks.

 

The Astros did, too.

 

We have not done that.

[mvp 78]

If the criticism of the Rays Way is no titles (which I’m constantly reminded of), what’s the benefit of the Dodger Way?

 

Is it because they market them with the slogan “Come see overpriced stars choke in October”?

 

They've spent a lot, been competitive every year AND have won a WS.

[moonslav59]

And for some reason, all those Atlanta stars sign dirt cheap extensions. Even the ones they acquire via trade. What is so exciting about Atlanta that players are willing to give up huge chunks of cash to play there? Is there some sort of Waffle House addiction problem rampant in MLB?

 

They have produced some great players in their system, including... gasp... starting pitchers.

 

They spend, when needed.

 

They keep most of their stars, but aren't afraid to let some walk.

 

Yes, they get many to extend, but hey, it's a nice place to play.

[mvp 78]

And against the Rays, whose entire plan (I’m told repeatedly) is incapable of winning. So it really shouldn’t count…

 

"Well, actually, THAT World Series title doesn't count because it hurts my argument!!!"

[mvp 78]

To account for the 2020 season, let's use the .556 win% (90 wins.)

 

Since 2008, a .556 + % ...

16 Seasons

12 LAD, including 11 straight

10 TBR

9 NYY

8 BOS (13 in last 22 and 14 in last 25)

 

Wins since 2008:

1458 LAD

1419 NYY

1366 TBR

1360 STL

1334 BOS

1329 ATL

1296 MIL

 

Since 2018:

558 LAD

530 HOU

515 ATL

511 TBR

509 NYY

487 MIL

467 CLE

464 BOS

463 STL

453 MIN

 

 

Since the Sox won't likely be competitive for a title until '26 or later, being a Dodger fan from 19-26 and maybe beyond is the better bet.

[mvp 78]

They replaced Corey Seager with Miguel Rojas. They replaced Cody Bellinger with James Outman. They replaced Kenley Jansen with Ethan Phillips.

 

You’ve missed all the things this team has been doing right and focused solely on their spending and then glorified them for it…

 

They cut costs SO THAT THEY COULD SPEND ON OHTANI AND YAMAMOTO. Everyone knew they were going to get Ohtani. They already had Betts and Freeman. I don't think Doyers fans were worried about why the front office was cutting costs. They knew what train was coming.

[mvp 78]

And they replaced Corey Seager with Gavin Lux, not Miguel Rojas. Lux just got injured.

[Hugh2]

After this season the Astros will lose

 

Jose Altuve

Alex Bregman

Justin Verlander

Ryan Pressly

 

Two big bats up an ace and their closer. They also have zero top 100 prospects.

 

I'd much certainly rather be any one of the Dodgers or the Braves right now than the Astros. Even the Orioles, if they ever decide to spend....look out.