Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Wacha was still out there I believe

 

Wacha's always hurt! He must be a pitcher... the guy who had 11 wins for a last place club last year, and who has another 11 Ws this season for a team that's 10 games under .500.

 

Kluber has three wins. Where would the Sox be with another eight victories? (said the fan who doesn't give a crap about Wacha's four-year contract for a whopping whatever million dollars... not when we're all alive this summer)

[Randy Red Sox]

Wacha's always hurt! He must be a pitcher... the guy who had 11 wins for a last place club last year, and who has another 11 Ws this season for a team that's 10 games under .500.

 

Kluber has three wins. Where would the Sox be with another eight victories? (said the fan who doesn't give a crap about Wacha's four-year contract for a whopping whatever million dollars... not when we're all alive this summer)

 

Wacha despite his injury history would have been a much better signing than Klubber. that is not even debatable

[Nick]

This board is fickle.

 

Are we now regretting giving Devers the contract that many clamored for here?

 

Same goes for Yoshida now? Offensively he may get better next year after spending a year on the 'state side'.

 

It appears Paxton is gassed. It's a good thing we didn't do anything silly like extending him.

 

I'm not the GM. Bloom can not go into 2024 wishing we have enough starting arms. He has to go get them this winter. Please, no one coming off an injury. Quit looking at the bargain bin. Go spend some money. I don't have full understanding of what's available other than THAT Japanese pitcher.

 

Can we package anything with Yoshida and trade with Seattle? Japanese players enjoy the west coast it seems. What can we get for Yoshida and Casas?

Edited September 2, 2023 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

This board is fickle.

 

Are we now regretting giving Devers the contract that many clamored for here?

 

Same goes for Yoshida now? Offensively he may get better next year after spending a year on the 'state side'.

 

Fans are supposed to be optimists, but when reality settles in they can become bitter.

 

I wanted them to extend Devers. The problem is he's having a horrible season with the glove and as a result he's not living up to his contract. Meanwhile we see Betts having a monster season and realize he's making about the same money as Devers.

 

Yoshida was a good story for a while, until you took a look at FanGraphs and realized the guy is a huge negative in the field and on the bases. Plus he stopped drawing walks. And now apparently he's pooped.

 

Reality bites sometimes, it's as simple as that.

[Dipre]

This board is fickle.

 

Are we now regretting giving Devers the contract that many clamored for here?

 

Same goes for Yoshida now? Offensively he may get better next year after spending a year on the 'state side'.

 

It appears Paxton is gassed. It's a good thing we didn't do anything silly like extending him.

 

I'm not the GM. Bloom can not go into 2024 wishing we have enough starting arms. He has to go get them this winter. Please, no one coming off an injury. Quit looking at the bargain bin. Go spend some money. I don't have full understanding of what's available other than THAT Japanese pitcher.

 

Can we package anything with Yoshida and trade with Seattle? Japanese players enjoy the west coast it seems. What can we get for Yoshida and Casas?

 

Good post until you shot yourself in the foot in the end. Why trade two good to great offensive players when we can just buy pitching in the offseason.

[Dipre]

Casas has been our best OBP guy and is only in his first full year. The promise is there for 30 HR in future years and probably his fielding will improve, particularly if he can take off 10 pounds. Who is to say that Devers can really be any better at first defensively. For those reasons I would keep Casas and I know you are not advocating trading him but instead looking for any solution to the improving the 2024 Sox. I too with be fine with keeping Duvall as either a RF or CF in future.

 

We should seriously look at our leadership going forward. Have we really improved much in the last 3 years?

 

Great logic, great post. I think this is really Bloom's make or break offseason. The farm is on point, so if they'll ever loosen the purse strings, it should be now.

[dgalehouse]

The team was basically shamed into extending Devers. Letting him walk could have led to an all out mutiny.

[oldtimer]

This board is fickle.

 

Are we now regretting giving Devers the contract that many clamored for here?

 

Same goes for Yoshida now? Offensively he may get better next year after spending a year on the 'state side'.

 

It appears Paxton is gassed. It's a good thing we didn't do anything silly like extending him.

 

I'm not the GM. Bloom can not go into 2024 wishing we have enough starting arms. He has to go get them this winter. Please, no one coming off an injury. Quit looking at the bargain bin. Go spend some money. I don't have full understanding of what's available other than THAT Japanese pitcher.

 

Can we package anything with Yoshida and trade with Seattle? Japanese players enjoy the west coast it seems. What can we get for Yoshida and Casas?

I would like to see us find a way to unload Sale and save at least a part of his remaining salary. We might need to include a prospect to do that. I don't know if there would be any takers, but Sale's ship has sailed for the Sox.

[Dipre]

The team was basically shamed into extending Devers. Letting him walk could have led to an all out mutiny.

 

Devers is also a great offensive player who has some untapped potential left. The move made sense, regardless of circumstance.

[Dipre]

I would like to see us find a way to unload Sale and save at least a part of his remaining salary. We might need to include a prospect to do that. I don't know if there would be any takers, but Sale's ship has sailed for the Sox.

 

Yeah, Sale is a sunk cost.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Fans are supposed to be optimists, but when reality settles in they can become bitter.

 

I wanted them to extend Devers. The problem is he's having a horrible season with the glove and as a result he's not living up to his contract. Meanwhile we see Betts having a monster season and realize he's making about the same money as Devers.

 

Yoshida was a good story for a while, until you took a look at FanGraphs and realized the guy is a huge negative in the field and on the bases. Plus he stopped drawing walks. And now apparently he's pooped.

 

Reality bites sometimes, it's as simple as that.

 

What really bites is the Red Sox have 27 games left, and in order to exceed last year's win total, will have to somehow win 10 more.

 

Let's see: maybe Bello and Crawford win 2 each before being shut down for the season. Houck should be able to manage a couple (right?), Pivetta's got two Ws left in him... or one for him, one for Wink (they're both hanging, huh)... anyway, that's eight...

 

Whitlock... just doesn't look right. But Bernie can throw a scoreless inning in the middle somewhere while the troops take a lead. Let's call that nine. Who does that leave (notice, I'm not mentioning Sale nor Paxton, because neither may win another in their careers).

 

Martin and Jansen are both good enough to hold the fort and triumph late... but that would then mean the Dead Sox would have to rally-- damn.

[notin]

I would like to see us find a way to unload Sale and save at least a part of his remaining salary. We might need to include a prospect to do that. I don't know if there would be any takers, but Sale's ship has sailed for the Sox.

 

No one wants Sale. It would be easier to get rid of herpes…

[notin]

Good post until you shot yourself in the foot in the end. Why trade two good to great offensive players when we can just buy pitching in the offseason.

 

Free agent pitching sucks.

 

Who was the last free agent starting pitcher the Sox signed that worked out?

[notin]

Wacha despite his injury history would have been a much better signing than Klubber. that is not even debatable

 

But Kluber is already gone. Wacha and his injury history will be around for 2-3 more years…

[Dipre]

Free agent pitching sucks.

 

Who was the last free agent starting pitcher the Sox signed that worked out?

 

It does if you overcommit. But it works out for other teams if they manage for risk. I wouldn't sign a deal like the one the Rangers gave "On the shelf Jacob De", but I'd sign several pitchers at market value in a post I made before.

[Dipre]

But Kluber is already gone. Wacha and his injury history will be around for 2-3 more years…

 

Good point.

[Bellhorn04]

Free agent pitching sucks.

 

Who was the last free agent starting pitcher the Sox signed that worked out?

 

Michael Wacha.

[Bellhorn04]

Good point.

 

It's a debatable point. Even with the injuries Wacha has a 2.1 fWAR this year, worth 16.7 million, and last year he had a 1.5 fWAR, worth 12.3 million. He's actually been a huge bargain 2 years in a row.

[moonslav59]

Michael Wacha.

 

I'd say Rich Hill "worked out" for $5M, too, but yes, the question exposes a weakness in the idea that buying SP'ers is the best plan.

 

1. We'd need to spend more than $5M/1 and $10M/1 (our 4 year range on SP'er signings) to get a better SP'er.

2. You'd need to not only beat our poor odds on big FA SP'er signings, but also the whole league's odds. The track record has been somewhere between bad and horrible for years. It's an outlier to have one work our well for the team, and the ones that do work are more like the Eflin signings than the Scherzer signing the year before Price's signing.

 

Check out the records of the top pitchers signed since Price. It cannot look like a good plan.

[mvp 78]

Michael Wacha.

 

Sale has more fWAR this season in only 77 innings and not many people on here are saying he’s having a good year. 1.6 isn’t that much.

[Old Red]

Sale has more fWAR this season in only 77 innings and not many people on here are saying he’s having a good year. 1.6 isn’t that much.

 

It doesn’t matter what Chris Frail has for fWAR, or any other stat. 77 innings is the biggest problem, which is the most since 2019.

[Bellhorn04]

Sale has more fWAR this season in only 77 innings and not many people on here are saying he’s having a good year. 1.6 isn’t that much.

 

We're leaving out their salaries?

 

The FanGraphs number is legit, it's based on actual historical data of the average cost of wins for free agent players.

[moonslav59]

We're leaving out their salaries?

 

The FanGraphs number is legit, it's based on actual historical data of the average cost of wins for free agent players.

 

In bWAR Wacha 2022 blows Sale 2023 away.

[Bellhorn04]

In bWAR Wacha 2022 blows Sale 2023 away.

 

Yeah, trying to be a little consistent here. As we've said there are big differences between fWAR and bWAR for pitchers.

[Randy Red Sox]

I'd say Rich Hill "worked out" for $5M, too, but yes, the question exposes a weakness in the idea that buying SP'ers is the best plan.

 

1. We'd need to spend more than $5M/1 and $10M/1 (our 4 year range on SP'er signings) to get a better SP'er.

2. You'd need to not only beat our poor odds on big FA SP'er signings, but also the whole league's odds. The track record has been somewhere between bad and horrible for years. It's an outlier to have one work our well for the team, and the ones that do work are more like the Eflin signings than the Scherzer signing the year before Price's signing.

 

Check out the records of the top pitchers signed since Price. It cannot look like a good plan.

 

heaven forbid we actually draft a few pitchers and then develop them. Much better to sign guys like Richards, Hill, Kluber etc.

[moonslav59]

heaven forbid we actually draft a few pitchers and then develop them. Much better to sign guys like Richards, Hill, Kluber etc.

 

1. You assume drafting pitchers means we end up with a top starter in 4-6 years.

2. You seem to want us to draft by position of need, instead of drafting by who you think has the best chance of being a productive player in 4-6 years, regardless of position.

3. The method of not drafting and developing top pitchers and getting our rotation via trades and free agency has worked 4 times for rings and several other times for damn good runs.

 

BTW, I asked to check out teh record of top FA pitchers signings, recently.

 

I ask you to check out the record of pitchers drafted highly in recent drafts (and those are pitchers drafted by teams we think are better at developing than we are.)

 

Neither method has a good track record.

 

We have a good track record of drafting every day players.

 

[moonslav59]

A look at the 2024 Lux Tax Budget:

$M

29.1 Devers

26.6 Sale (last year)

23.3 Story

18.0 Yoshida

16.0 Jansen (last year)

7.5 Martin (last year)

4.7 Whitlock

4.2 Joely (option given?)

2.0 Refsnyder

Sub Total: 131.4 Signed (128.3 no Joely and $500K buyout)

 

Arb Est

9.5 Dugo (3 of 3)

8.5 Pivetta (3 of 3)

5.1 Urias (3 of 4)

1.5 McGuire (2 of 3)

Sub Total: 156.0 (about 152 w/o Joely)

 

17.0 Player Benefits

13.0 Pre arbs on 26

1.3 40 man players in minors

1.7 0-3 year bonus pool

 

$189M before any additions

 

$48M below first tax line ($237M)

$68M below second tax line ($257M)

 

IMO, we need 2-3 SP'er and maybe one big RH'd bat (CF/RF/2B?) In reality, we might add 2 SP'er, 1 RP'er and 2 everyday players, because we usually go for quantity over quality.

 

5 Player possible budget at tax line ($48M:)

$20M SP

$7M SP

$7M RP

$7M CG (RH'd)

$7M UT

 

5 Players at 2nd lone ($68M)

30M SP

17M SP

7M RP

7M CF

7M UT

 

4 Players at $68M

$30M SP

$20M SP

$10M Utility (RH'd CF/2B)

$8M RP

 

 

 

[Randy Red Sox]

1. You assume drafting pitchers means we end up with a top starter in 4-6 years.

2. You seem to want us to draft by position of need, instead of drafting by who you think has the best chance of being a productive player in 4-6 years, regardless of position.

3. The method of not drafting and developing top pitchers and getting our rotation via trades and free agency has worked 4 times for rings and several other times for damn good runs.

 

BTW, I asked to check out teh record of top FA pitchers signings, recently.

 

I ask you to check out the record of pitchers drafted highly in recent drafts (and those are pitchers drafted by teams we think are better at developing than we are.)

 

Neither method has a good track record.

 

We have a good track record of drafting every day players.

 

 

To be totally honest that is too much work. Why does it take it 4-6 years for a player to develop?? I'll tell you why- it's because Bloom wants to draft HS players rather than college players. Somehow teams like Cleveland and Seattle manage to draft and develop young quality pitching and they have been picking not much lower than the sox recently. And then I should mention that Bloom came from Tampa which has probably been the best example of developing young top P talent yet he has brought very little if any of that from there.

 

Now you are wanting him to sign some top fA pitching this offseason and the name that seems to be getting tossed around is Aaron Nola who will likely take 5-6 yrs at 25-30 million per and is already 30. We have already found out with guys like Price and Sale that this often does not work out. This type of pitching costs big $$ and is a big risk in my view. To sign quality 2B and OF types is MUCH MUCH cheaper. The Sox need more Bello types and I would certainly go after Yamamoto who is only 25. If I am Henry I do not allow Bloom to be outbid on him.

[moonslav59]

To be totally honest that is too much work. Why does it take it 4-6 years for a player to develop?? I'll tell you why- it's because Bloom wants to draft HS players rather than college players. Somehow teams like Cleveland and Seattle manage to draft and develop young quality pitching and they have been picking not much lower than the sox recently. And then I should mention that Bloom came from Tampa which has probably been the best example of developing young top P talent yet he has brought very little if any of that from there.

 

Now you are wanting him to sign some top fA pitching this offseason and the name that seems to be getting tossed around is Aaron Nola who will likely take 5-6 yrs at 25-30 million per and is already 30. We have already found out with guys like Price and Sale that this often does not work out. This type of pitching costs big $$ and is a big risk in my view. To sign quality 2B and OF types is MUCH MUCH cheaper. The Sox need more Bello types and I would certainly go after Yamamoto who is only 25. If I am Henry I do not allow Bloom to be outbid on him.

 

Most college drafted pitchers take 4 years to develop and actually start contributing at the ML level- minimum, except for very few exceptions. HS players take 5-6 or more. I stand by my 4-6 years for all pitching prospects as the vast majority fall in that range. Look it up.

 

BTW, TBR had a pretty bad hit and miss rate on pitchers drafted. They are best known for scavenging other team's rosters and farm systems and acquiring good pitching, like Springs from us.

 

Yes, they are known for developing some very well.

 

Not a single poster disagrees on the idea that we need to improve our pitching prospect development system. Nobody. It's not an easy task, and if we have not done enough to do that, so far, that is a big mark against Bloom & Co. I'll drive that bandwagon. However, how will we know he hasn't or has done it until at least 4-6 years have gone by?

 

I've already seen improvement on the pitchers we have called up since Bloom took over: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Wink and Bello are better than any group of 5 since Theo. You assume we have done nothing. Maybe you are right, but it takes time to know, and you seem to expect aces in 3-4 years. You are in a tiny minority on that opinion.

 

You point to Price and Sale and you are right. They may have helped us win in 2018, but they did not earn their money. What about others not from our system? Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and ERod? Those guys have worked out better than Lester, Buch, Masterson and Bello.

 

I'm all for developing aces. I'm all for drafting better pitching, but no GM drafts pitching just because they are pitchers. They draft the best available player and maybe, just maybe, use position as the tie-breaker.

[Randy Red Sox]

Most college drafted pitchers take 4 years to develop and actually start contributing at the ML level- minimum, except for very few exceptions. HS players take 5-6 or more. I stand by my 4-6 years for all pitching prospects as the vast majority fall in that range. Look it up.

 

BTW, TBR had a pretty bad hit and miss rate on pitchers drafted. They are best known for scavenging other team's rosters and farm systems and acquiring good pitching, like Springs from us.

 

Yes, they are known for developing some very well.

 

Not a single poster disagrees on the idea that we need to improve our pitching prospect development system. Nobody. It's not an easy task, and if we have not done enough to do that, so far, that is a big mark against Bloom & Co. I'll drive that bandwagon. However, how will we know he hasn't or has done it until at least 4-6 years have gone by?

 

I've already seen improvement on the pitchers we have called up since Bloom took over: Houck, Whitlock, Crawford, Wink and Bello are better than any group of 5 since Theo. You assume we have done nothing. Maybe you are right, but it takes time to know, and you seem to expect aces in 3-4 years. You are in a tiny minority on that opinion.

 

You point to Price and Sale and you are right. They may have helped us win in 2018, but they did not earn their money. What about others not from our system? Pedro, Schilling, Beckett, Lackey and ERod? Those guys have worked out better than Lester, Buch, Masterson and Bello.

 

I'm all for developing aces. I'm all for drafting better pitching, but no GM drafts pitching just because they are pitchers. They draft the best available player and maybe, just maybe, use position as the tie-breaker.

 

i don't think we are that far apart on our views but I think it is a stretch to go back to the Schilling, Pedro, etc days. And who is to say that Bello doesn't turn out better than some you mention. i think he will. So does Pedro who should be our PC and Varietk our manager.