Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Bellhorn04]

Our problem has been that we are terrible at drafting good pitchers, so the solution must be to draft more bad pitchers and hope we get one right. Is that the best plan?

 

Well, we do have some new people who know lots about pitching...

[Hugh2]

Our problem has been that we are terrible at drafting good pitchers, so the solution must be to draft more bad pitchers and hope we get one right. Is that the best plan?

 

Terrible at drafting pitchers because we don’t invest in pitchers.

 

I was listening to the last episode of Soxprospects yesterday and I forget the exact timeframe here but it’s been something like over the last TEN years the Red Sox are dead last in MLB in bonus money handed out to pitchers in the draft.

 

They don’t even give themselves a chance to develop good pitching.

[moonslav59]

Well, we do have some new people who know lots about pitching...

 

I’m all for changing the set up we’ve had, but until we are confident we’ve reached the point we should be at, I’m not forpicking pitchers just for the sake of their position.

 

Even if you did the impossible and invented a sure fire way to identify Good SPers to draft, there might still be position players worth more on the draft board.

[moonslav59]

Terrible at drafting pitchers because we don’t invest in pitchers.

 

I was listening to the last episode of Soxprospects yesterday and I forget the exact timeframe here but it’s been something like over the last TEN years the Red Sox are dead last in MLB in bonus money handed out to pitchers in the draft.

 

They don’t even give themselves a chance to develop good pitching.

 

We’ve done horribly when we do pick pitchers highly.

 

That does not mean we should give up, but until we have fixed the poor way we identify good pitching prospects, I do r think k picking more will work.

[notin]

Terrible at drafting pitchers because we don’t invest in pitchers.

 

I was listening to the last episode of Soxprospects yesterday and I forget the exact timeframe here but it’s been something like over the last TEN years the Red Sox are dead last in MLB in bonus money handed out to pitchers in the draft.

 

They don’t even give themselves a chance to develop good pitching.

 

Dues that last place include IFA or just draft bonus money?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Well, we do have some new people who know lots about pitching...

 

For a second there, I thought you meant new people on the board -- since Jax the Yankee fan doesn't post here much anymore. But at least he was a pitcher, so knew a few things about actually pitching that the rest of us can't look up on statistical sites.

 

And considering how bad the Red Sox org has been supplying the club with good pitchers for half a decade now, some new forum voices can't make it any worse.

[moonslav59]

Dues that last place include IFA or just draft bonus money?

 

It was just about drafting. Go to soxprospects.com and click on news. It’s a great article.

[notin]

We’ve done horribly when we do pick pitchers highly.

 

That does not mean we should give up, but until we have fixed the poor way we identify good pitching prospects, I do r think k picking more will work.

 

 

I assumed, correctly or not, the primary reason Bloom didn’t take pitchers highly is he was trying to stockpile legitimate prospects into the Sox farm system, and position players are easier to scout and evaluate.

 

I think he passed on pitchers solely to increase the prospect volume in the farm system.

 

My theory anyway…

Edited March 9, 2024 by notin

[notin]

It was just about drafting. Go to soxprospects.com and click on news. It’s a great article.

 

Ok.

 

I’m not surprised the Sox are near the bottom, especially with my theories about Bloom. But it’s not so goood to be at the bottom…

[moonslav59]

I assumed, correctly or not, the primary reason Bloom didn’t take pitchers highly is he was trying to stockpile legitimate prospects into the Sox farm system, and position players are easier to scout and evaluate.

 

I think he passed on pitchers solely to increase the prospect volume in the farm system.

 

My theory anyway…

 

I would think most teams draft the best player, regardless of position.

[moonslav59]

Ok.

 

I’m not surprised the Sox are near the bottom, especially with my theories about Bloom. But it’s not so goood to be at the bottom…

 

The study did include some DD years

[Duran Is The Man]

Just draft the best players available. Don’t worry about position and don’t worry about college vs high school. The pitching situation can work itself out.

 

The Sox have two pitchers they drafted slated to start in their opening day rotation, including one who was a first round pick (and is quite possibly the worst of the five, and definitely one everyone wants to see bumped back into the bullpen). So maybe first round pitchers for the sake of taking first round pitchers isn’t the way to go. In fact, that seems like an even worse strategy than what they’ve been doing.

 

Just take the player you think has the best future…

 

I agree with this to a point. And that point being the Top 30 or so players. After that, I think it’s a crapshoot for position or pitcher either one. Probably not a lot of difference in 30-50 slots. Maybe even 30-100.

[notin]

The study did include some DD years

 

I think it included all them, right?

 

If it’s 10 years, it includes a couple Cherington years, too.

 

The DD years do have some excuse as the Sox were picking 20-30 most of them and bonuses for all players (not just pitchers) were smaller…

[moonslav59]

I think it included all them, right?

 

If it’s 10 years, it includes a couple Cherington years, too.

 

The DD years do have some excuse as the Sox were picking 20-30 most of them and bonuses for all players (not just pitchers) were smaller…

 

I thought it was from 2018-2023

[notin]

I thought it was from 2018-2023

 

I didn’t read the article. But in post 9662 above Hugh does say ten years. I’m going by that…

[moonslav59]

I didn’t read the article. But in post 9662 above Hugh does say ten years. I’m going by that…

 

It mentions pitchers from as far back as 2012, but the draft bonus study part was 2018-2023.

[notin]

It mentions pitchers from as far back as 2012, but the draft bonus study part was 2018-2023.

 

Ok. So Bloom’s strategy is largely the culprit…

[moonslav59]

Ok. So Bloom’s strategy is largely the culprit…

 

From this one study, yes, but my hunch is this goes back much longer. Drafting pitchers highly just has not been our thing for at least a couple decades, IMO.

[Hugh2]

We’ve done horribly when we do pick pitchers highly.

 

That does not mean we should give up, but until we have fixed the poor way we identify good pitching prospects, I do r think k picking more will work.

 

If you want to talk about Ball and Groome then yes but the later of those picks was 8 years ago. In the time since we’ve spent the least amount of money on pitching in the draft.

 

Of course we’ve done horribly picking pitchers since, we have t even given ourselves a chance

[Hugh2]

I think the highest bonuses handed out to pitchers since Tanner in 2017 has been Drohan and Feltman, and without looking it up those guys got around 600k.

 

Drafting a bust 11 years ago is a piss poor excuse for not spending money on pitching. They’re dead last.

 

New prediction.

 

This changes, Sox start spreading the wealth between pitchers and hitters in the draft starting in 2024…..but they still take a high school short stop with their first pick and the board goes ape s***. Book it

[Hugh2]

Since 2018 the Sox have drafted:

60 pitchers

53 position players

 

That probably surprises people, but this won’t. Those 60 pitchers have accounted for 19% of the bonus pool money while the hitters have eaten up well….81% lol.

 

I got this information from this read, which is pretty darn good and I suggest others to take a look.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/02/how-red-sox-draft-strategy-has-affected.html?m=1

[moonslav59]

Since 2018 the Sox have drafted:

60 pitchers

53 position players

 

That probably surprises people, but this won’t. Those 60 pitchers have accounted for 19% of the bonus pool money while the hitters have eaten up well….81% lol.

 

I got this information from this read, which is pretty darn good and I suggest others to take a look.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/02/how-red-sox-draft-strategy-has-affected.html?m=1

 

Yes, it’s a great read and one of the most in-depth articles I’ve ever seen on do’s.

 

The IFA route has not been much better.

 

I will say, as bad as we have done with pitching since maybe Lester, we have had a few more decent pitchers come up in the last 2-4 years than we had in the previous 4-6 years.

 

Bello

Houck

Crawford

Rule 5 Whitlock

Trade Winckowski

 

We are missing an ace. I’m not trying to gloss over what has been going on. The current farm looks horrible on future SPers, but we did see a little window of near decency.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Since 2018 the Sox have drafted:

60 pitchers

53 position players

 

That probably surprises people, but this won’t. Those 60 pitchers have accounted for 19% of the bonus pool money while the hitters have eaten up well….81% lol.

 

I got this information from this read, which is pretty darn good and I suggest others to take a look.

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2024/02/how-red-sox-draft-strategy-has-affected.html?m=1

 

Thanks for the link. Red Sox fans aren't surprised Boston ranks dead last in investing in pitching prospects since 2018. We get what they don't pay for.

 

In that span, the two teams who spent the highest percentage of draft bonus bucks on pitching are also recent World Series champs: Texas and Atlanta. At the same time, neither of those clubs have been shy about spending large to lock up star position players at the big league level.

 

Data shows the Sox have preferred drafting hitters, but the author (obviously a devoted reader of of talksox) adds this: "The Red Sox’s hitter-centric strategy could still be successful in developing a balanced roster, especially if the pitching staff was buoyed by external investment in the free agent market and/or via trades of hitting prospects for pitching."

 

Giolito looks like a bad buoy so far, but there's still hope for guys like Fitts and Sandlin (acquired for another pitcher, but at least through trade). Breslow still has a lot of hitting prospect depth that he could part with -- like the example given of Arizona swapping Jazz Chisholm for Zac Gallen.

[moonslav59]

Thanks for the link. Red Sox fans aren't surprised Boston ranks dead last in investing in pitching prospects since 2018. We get what they don't pay for.

 

In that span, the two teams who spent the highest percentage of draft bonus bucks on pitching are also recent World Series champs: Texas and Atlanta. At the same time, neither of those clubs have been shy about spending large to lock up star position players at the big league level.

 

Data shows the Sox have preferred drafting hitters, but the author (obviously a devoted reader of of talksox) adds this: "The Red Sox’s hitter-centric strategy could still be successful in developing a balanced roster, especially if the pitching staff was buoyed by external investment in the free agent market and/or via trades of hitting prospects for pitching."

 

Giolito looks like a bad buoy so far, but there's still hope for guys like Fitts and Sandlin (acquired for another pitcher, but at least through trade). Breslow still has a lot of hitting prospect depth that he could part with -- like the example given of Arizona swapping Jazz Chisholm for Zac Gallen.

 

We also added a couple RPers that look promising: Campbell and Slater, but Breslow’s first IFA round showed no increase in pitchers of bonuses for pitchers.

[Randy Red Sox]

I think the highest bonuses handed out to pitchers since Tanner in 2017 has been Drohan and Feltman, and without looking it up those guys got around 600k.

 

Drafting a bust 11 years ago is a piss poor excuse for not spending money on pitching. They’re dead last.

 

New prediction.

 

This changes, Sox start spreading the wealth between pitchers and hitters in the draft starting in 2024…..but they still take a high school short stop with their first pick and the board goes ape s***. Book it

 

so you are advocating that they pick a HS SS with their 1st rd pick?

[Randy Red Sox]

Just draft the best players available. Don’t worry about position and don’t worry about college vs high school. The pitching situation can work itself out.

 

The Sox have two pitchers they drafted slated to start in their opening day rotation, including one who was a first round pick (and is quite possibly the worst of the five, and definitely one everyone wants to see bumped back into the bullpen). So maybe first round pitchers for the sake of taking first round pitchers isn’t the way to go. In fact, that seems like an even worse strategy than what they’ve been doing.

 

Just take the player you think has the best future…

 

"the pitching situation can work itself out" ??? When might that happen I ask?

[Hugh2]

so you are advocating that they pick a HS SS with their 1st rd pick?

 

Exactly my point here.

 

But no, I am not, I am saying I can see the a scenario where the Sox start drafting pitchers higher, spend more bonus money on pitching talent, but still go position player at 12 if they think the BPA is a position player.

 

I’m not advocating, I’m predicting.

[notin]

"the pitching situation can work itself out" ??? When might that happen I ask?

 

When they make moves to do so.

 

Is drafting the only way to get pitchers?

 

The Sox didn’t draft a single starting pitcher who made their rotation between Clay Buchholz (debuted in 2007) and Tanner Houck (debuted in 2020). Know what else they did in that time?

 

Won three World Series…

[notin]

so you are advocating that they pick a HS SS with their 1st rd pick?

 

I advocate that if the SS is the best player left on the board. Drafting pitching for the sake of drafting pitching doesn’t work so well if the pitchers flame out High A ball.

 

The high school SS could flame out as well, but when you take the best player available and he doesn’t work out, you didn’t really do anything wrong.

 

Are you advocating the Sox take lesser pitchers solely for the sake of taking pitchers?

[dgalehouse]

I think it is legitimate to ask why the Red Sox , who seem to be forever in need of starting pitchers, don't draft more highly rated college pitchers. I don't think the old bromide of " draft the best player available " is a sufficient reason. Of course, high schoolers are usually cheaper, but certainly not as tested as the college athletes. It is a little dubious to call a high school kid the best player available.