Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Even if we call O'Neill replacing Duvall even, the Sox are still down arguably their best hitter for most of last summer -- and certainly their most consistent RHH for five months (pre ankle-injury) -- in Turner.

 

I understand the need to free up the DH to improve the overall team, but is it really reasonable to expect improvement in yet another area -- in this case, the offense -- that the front office chose not to compensate with established MLB talent?

 

If we think of 29yo Tyler O'Neill as a replacement for 36yo Adam Duvall, that means 27yo Jarren Duran des replace 39yo Justin Turner. Duran was fairly close to Turner at the plate most of the summer, and given their ages, might be the more likely to repeat.

 

For all this talk bout how the Sox didn't replace their best hitters (which they did), why not also look at how they replaced their worst ones?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we think of 29yo Tyler O'Neill as a replacement for 36yo Adam Duvall, that means 27yo Jarren Duran des replace 39yo Justin Turner. Duran was fairly close to Turner at the plate most of the summer, and given their ages, might be the more likely to repeat.

 

For all this talk bout how the Sox didn't replace their best hitters (which they did), why not also look at how they replaced their worst ones?

 

I have hopes for Grissom, and think that trade could define early Brez blows. In BP vids from FLA, Grizzley looks like Bogaerts from afar...

[Dipre]

If we think of 29yo Tyler O'Neill as a replacement for 36yo Adam Duvall, that means 27yo Jarren Duran des replace 39yo Justin Turner. Duran was fairly close to Turner at the plate most of the summer, and given their ages, might be the more likely to repeat.

 

For all this talk bout how the Sox didn't replace their best hitters (which they did), why not also look at how they replaced their worst ones?

 

Because that would be objective analysis instead of outright whining. Duh.

[notin]

Because that would be objective analysis instead of outright whining. Duh.

 

I think we need to abandon threads with titles like “realistic” and just have two threads labeled “An Optimistic Look at 2024” and “A Pessimistic Look at 2024”…

[Dipre]

I think we need to abandon threads with titles like “realistic” and just have two threads labeled “An Optimistic Look at 2024” and “A Pessimistic Look at 2024”…

 

So, the "Old Red thread" and the "moonslav thread" got it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think we need to abandon threads with titles like “realistic” and just have two threads labeled “An Optimistic Look at 2024” and “A Pessimistic Look at 2024”…

 

That's it -- no more gray threads! Only blue and yellow, city connected threads. Or teel and roman...

[mvp 78]

If we think of 29yo Tyler O'Neill as a replacement for 36yo Adam Duvall, that means 27yo Jarren Duran des replace 39yo Justin Turner. Duran was fairly close to Turner at the plate most of the summer, and given their ages, might be the more likely to repeat.

 

For all this talk bout how the Sox didn't replace their best hitters (which they did), why not also look at how they replaced their worst ones?

 

Are we sure Duran is a 120 wRC+ player going forward? Most projections have him at 98 and below. Until he can replicate it again, I can't say he's likely to outhit Turner. We've seen many one year wonders before.

[mvp 78]

I have hopes for Grissom, and think that trade could define early Brez blows. In BP vids from FLA, Grizzley looks like Bogaerts from afar...

 

Even a little Adalbertoish!

[mvp 78]

So, the "Old Red thread" and the "moonslav thread" got it.

 

As a REALIST, let me just say that the Sox will go 162-0 if they win the first game and 0-162 if they lose the first game.

[mvp 78]

https://twitter.com/redsoxstats/status/1759997554521935888

 

Raffy gives ownership a ringing endorsement.

[mvp 78]

@jcmccaffrey

Rafael Devers was about as outspoken as he’s ever been saying he was disappointed the team didn’t add more this winter and even at the trade deadline last year

[moonslav59]

Are we sure Duran is a 120 wRC+ player going forward? Most projections have him at 98 and below. Until he can replicate it again, I can't say he's likely to outhit Turner. We've seen many one year wonders before.

 

He may out hit the 2024 Turner.

[moonslav59]

@jcmccaffrey

Rafael Devers was about as outspoken as he’s ever been saying he was disappointed the team didn’t add more this winter and even at the trade deadline last year

 

Good for him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

@jcmccaffrey

Rafael Devers was about as outspoken as he’s ever been saying he was disappointed the team didn’t add more this winter and even at the trade deadline last year

 

What a whiner, what a pessimist; can't he see how sunny it is, with all the citrus fruit dangling around him, just waiting to be picked off by the two dozen teams actually trying to win this year?

[dgalehouse]

Duran and Turner were both regulars last year. How is Duran replacing Turner now ?

[moonslav59]

Duran and Turner were both regulars last year. How is Duran replacing Turner now ?

 

I think the idea is Duran ploays FT and stay healthy, but yes, that might ony cover half of Turner's missing PAs.

 

The other half?

 

Maybe O'Neill can get much more PAs than Duvall had, and fill most of the gap.

 

The rest has to come from more PAs by Story, Rafaela & Abreu.

[notin]

Duran and Turner were both regulars last year. How is Duran replacing Turner now ?

 

Well Duran really replaced Duvall last year. And when the Sox had Yoshida-Duvall-Verdugo with Turner at DH, where did Duran play his regular time?

[moonslav59]

Well Duran really replaced Duvall last year. And when the Sox had Yoshida-Duvall-Verdugo with Turner at DH, where did Duran play his regular time?

 

He played mostly CF after starting with the big club in mid April.

 

He was pretty close to FT from his first game of 2023 in MLB to his IL stint in AUG to the end of the year.

 

Duran played in 102 games from team game 17 to 124, so basically 102 out of 118, which is about 6-8 games from FT as Cora allows.

 

[moonslav59]

There is not an easy way to show who replaces who, since some is based on more projected PAs from players that were on the 2023 team, and some position swaps will occur, most notably, Yoshida will DH more, but his PAs are not really replacing Turner's. It will be whoever plays LF in his place.

 

Here are the PAs lost (GS Position)

 

626 Turner (98 DH, 35 1B, 7 3B, 4 2B) Yoshida started 49 at DH. For argument's sake, let's say Yoshida plays all Turner's games at DH, so OF'ers will replace those PAs by Turner. Who plays 3B and 1B as a back-up is unknown.)

 

602 Dugo (140 RF): We do not know who will play RF, but it looks like Abreu & O'Neill might combine for 602 PAs in RF.

 

353 Duvall (61 CF, 20 RF, 3 LF, 3 DH)- looks like Duran can add some PAs and Rafaela will get the rest in CF.

 

323 Kike (64 SS, 14 2B. 14 CF)- Looks like Story, Grissom and Reyes will add at least the 750 PAs of these 4 guys.

206 Arroyo (51 2B)

112 Chang (30 SS, 2 2B)

109 Urias (24 2B, 4 3B)

 

97 Tapia (9LF, 5 RF, 4 CF)- more PAs from Refsnyder, Rafaela and Abreu.

 

another 100 or so with odds and ends- who knows?

 

It's about 2500 total PAs lost- not all by plus batters. (Note: Dugo had a 100 OPS+)

 

My guess:

+550 Grissom

+450 Story (to 618)

+450 O'Neill (could be 550)

+400 Rafaela (to 489)

+400 Abreu (to 485)

+200 Duran (to 562)

+50 Casas (to 552)

 

Of course, people will get hurt. We may see Dalbec, DHam and guys like Reyes get a lot more PAs than 2023.

 

I do think we should be okay. I think posters are only looking at the top 3 players lost and are maybe remembering Dugo as some sort of plus bat. He wasn't in 2023.

 

Kike had 20 fewer PAs than Duvall, but only replacing Duval is mentioned. Kike had a 62 OPS+, which is horrific and should be easy to improve upon by Story, Reyes, and Grissom.

 

Same with...

Arroyo's 206 PAs and 70 OPS+.

Chang's 112 PAs and 45 OPS+.

Urias 109 PAs and 91 OPS+.

Tapia's 97 PAs and 90 OPS+

 

Kike and these other 4 players, alone, combined for 750 PAs, which is more than Turner or Dugo.

 

Our offense should be fine, assuming the norm on injuries. We have some unknowns, like Grissom, Abreu and Rafaela and the injury-prone O'Neill, but it's not like we had perfect health, last year.

[notin]

He played mostly CF after starting with the big club in mid April.

 

He was pretty close to FT from his first game of 2023 in MLB to his IL stint in AUG to the end of the year.

 

Duran played in 102 games from team game 17 to 124, so basically 102 out of 118, which is about 6-8 games from FT as Cora allows.

 

 

Mid-April was about when Duvall broke his wrist, right?

[moonslav59]

Mid-April was about when Duvall broke his wrist, right?

 

Duvall broke his wrist APR 9.

 

Duran's first game in APR was the 17th, so yes.

 

When Duvall returned in early June, he played mostly CF and some RF.

[Larry Cook]

I think the idea is Duran ploays FT and stay healthy, but yes, that might ony cover half of Turner's missing PAs.

 

The other half?

 

Maybe O'Neill can get much more PAs than Duvall had, and fill most of the gap.

 

The rest has to come from more PAs by Story, Rafaela & Abreu.

 

Our starting outfield could project to be abreau in left: Duran in center and O’Neil in right! With yoshida and refsynder as spares. Rafeala starts the year in Worcester

[moonslav59]

Our starting outfield could project to be abreau in left: Duran in center and O’Neil in right! With yoshida and refsynder as spares. Rafeala starts the year in Worcester

 

I'm not expert on O'Neill or Abreu's defense, but I'm leaning towards O'Neill in LF (maybe RF in Yankee Stadium) and Abreu in RF.

 

Where does Duran fit in? (Traded?) Refsnyder? (Traded?)

 

Here could be how it shakes out, if we try hard to not play Duran in CF:

 

LF:

107 gms Duran

50 gms O'Neill

5 gms Yoshida

 

CF:

102 gms Rafaela

60 gms Abreu

 

RF:

82 gms Abreu

80 gms O'Neill

 

The way this shakes out, Abreu plays the most, but I think Duran will, barring injury. I think Cora does this:

 

LF

87 O'Neill

70 Duran

5 Yoshida

 

CF

82 Duran

80 Rafaela (plays some SS & 2B)

 

RF

100 Abreu

62 O'Neill

 

Total in OF

152 Duran

149 O'Neill

100 Abreu

80 Rafaela

5 Yoshida

[Larry Cook]

Rafaela’s time in Boston could be directly tied to O’Neil. When O’Neil goes on the DL, Rafaela is probably called up. Or if O’Neil is traded at the deadline, Rafaela is probably called up.

[notin]

Our starting outfield could project to be abreau in left: Duran in center and O’Neil in right! With yoshida and refsynder as spares. Rafeala starts the year in Worcester

 

I could see those three but with O’Neill and Abreu flipped…

[moonslav59]

Rafaela’s time in Boston could be directly tied to O’Neil. When O’Neil goes on the DL, Rafaela is probably called up. Or if O’Neil is traded at the deadline, Rafaela is probably called up.

 

Even if we trade Refsnyder, I can't see how Abreu and Rafaela get enough PAs to be on the 26, all year, if everyone is healthy.

 

O"Neill is not a platoon player.

 

Duran could be a platoon, but I think he earned a shot to play vs LHPs for a while- just to see if 2023 was a fluke.

 

Let's assume no Ref and no platoon of Duran:

 

LF:

Duran 82

O'Neill 80

 

CF

Rafaela 92

Duran 70

 

RF

Abreu 92

O'Neill 70

 

92 games is about 3 out of 5. Rafaela & Abreu need to play 9 out of 10, somewhere.

 

Let's say we platoon Duran and no Ref:

 

LF:

Duran 120 v RHP

O'Neill 42 v LHPs

 

CF

Rafaela 107

Abreu 55

 

RF

O'Neill 110 v RHPs

Abreu 52 v LHPs and some RHPs

 

This way, Rafaela and Abreu get 107 GS, each and maybe some late inning defense and PR chances. I'd say, that is still not enough.

 

This is why some think trading Duran for a SP'er makes sense, but if Rafaela or Abreu flame out, and Duran looks good, we'd never hear the end of it... well, maybe an Anthony call- up might make people forget Duran.

[moonslav59]

I could see those three but with O’Neill and Abreu flipped…

 

Agreed.

[Hitch]

O'Neil is not staying fit for 150 games. We'll be lucky to get 100 out of him.

[moonslav59]

O'Neil is not staying fit for 150 games. We'll be lucky to get 100 out of him.

 

True, but this would be possible templates. Less time for O'Neill and more for Rafaela & Abreu is an easy choice, unless one or both are stinking up the place.

 

(This might be why we are keeping Refsnyder around and are reluctant to trade Duran.)

Edited February 21, 2024 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

True, but this would be possible templates. Less time for O'Neill and more for Rafaela & Abreu is an easy choice, unless one or both are stinking up the place.

 

(This might be why we are keeping Refsnyder around and are reluctant to trade Duran.)

 

There are a number of reasons to keep Duran. The only reason not to keep him is if you can get a legit starting pitcher for him.