Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[mvp 78]

This offseason is similar to what Boras did in 2018 when he held a bunch of players out and threatened to have his guys form their own Spring Training team. The general feeling was that Boras was holding the market hostage at the time. I'm not sure he's taking as much of the blame this go around.

 

Hosmer - new team

JD - new team

Moustakas - returned

Arrieta - new team

Holland - new team

[notin]

I don't know any Sox fans that think O'Neill with replace both Turner and Duvall, but apparently the front office does, since -- after losing those two -- Tyler's the only batter with any MLB power success they've added.

 

And no one said the goal is to replicate last season; my post about concerns was in reply to someone who said "Offense should be better."

 

Again -- even if you expect every single hitter will improve, does the offense appear to have more or less depth than last season?

 

If Cora is intent to bat a righty after Devers, how much protection will he get from Story or O'Neill, who each strikeout in 30% of their ABs?

 

Doesn’t Duvall strike out roughly 30% of the time as well?

[mvp 78]

I don't know any Sox fans that think O'Neill with replace both Turner and Duvall, but apparently the front office does, since -- after losing those two -- Tyler's the only batter with any MLB power success they've added.

 

And no one said the goal is to replicate last season; my post about concerns was in reply to someone who said "Offense should be better."

 

Again -- even if you expect every single hitter will improve, does the offense appear to have more or less depth than last season?

 

If Cora is intent to bat a righty after Devers, how much protection will he get from Story or O'Neill, who each strikeout in 30% of their ABs?

 

I think the Offense could be about the same. Story could be a big hinge point, but we've been waiting on him for 2 years.

 

Bullpen should be about the same depending on trades.

 

Rotation is a big unknown as it was last season, but I'm not sure it could be worse.

 

The defense should be better only because it was awful last season.

[notin]

Would these kind of stats be acceptable for Grissom's first full season: .290ish with 15 HRs, about 10 SBs, and close to .800 OPs?

 

That would give him Masa appeal...

 

I certainly hope those numbers are acceptable…

[Bellhorn04]

When you look at the offense's numbers last year, trading Duran seems like a really bad idea. He was #3 in Offensive WAR.

[mvp 78]

When you look at the offense's numbers last year, trading Duran seems like a really bad idea. He was #3 in Offensive WAR.

 

Do you expect him to repeat what he did last year?

[notin]

What do the projections say about the whole team.

 

Does Fangraphs have that?

[mvp 78]

Does Fangraphs have that?

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team

[Bellhorn04]

Do you expect him to repeat what he did last year?

 

I hate trying to project, personally. I just look at actual numbers and what the so-called experts project.

[mvp 78]

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/depth-chart

 

774 OPS for the '24 BoSox

[Hitch]

Sure it would. Give him some exposure to MLB pitching and see whether or not he really is a solution.

 

You can still do that and not burn a year of control.

[mvp 78]

Kavadas is projected to come up and provide one bomb this season. Looking forward to it.

[Hitch]

IDK, I wouldn't worry about years of control for Rafaela. He's not a max contract guy that you have to manage the years for. You will go crazy if you start doing it for every player. Just play the guys when they are ready.

 

I wouldn't worry personally, I'd love to see him up if ready. Not sure that's how the FO will look at it though.

[mvp 78]

I hate trying to project, personally. I just look at actual numbers and what the so-called experts project.

 

ZiPS didn't project him to OPS 828 last year, so you're good to project anything you want. The projections are basically putting his career line out there and going with that for '24.

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.fangraphs.com/teams/red-sox/depth-chart

 

774 OPS for the '24 BoSox

 

553 PA's for O'Neill! B-R projects 371.

532 for Grissom! B-R projects 256.

 

Crazy spreads.

[mvp 78]

553 PA's for O'Neill! B-R projects 371.

532 for Grissom! B-R projects 256.

 

Crazy spreads.

 

Grissom will get fulltime run. O'Neilllll will most likely not be healthy enough.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Doesn’t Duvall strike out roughly 30% of the time as well?

 

Even if we call O'Neill replacing Duvall even, the Sox are still down arguably their best hitter for most of last summer -- and certainly their most consistent RHH for five months (pre ankle-injury) -- in Turner.

 

I understand the need to free up the DH to improve the overall team, but is it really reasonable to expect improvement in yet another area -- in this case, the offense -- that the front office chose not to compensate with established MLB talent?

[mvp 78]

Even if we call O'Neill replacing Duvall even, the Sox are still down arguably their best hitter for most of last summer -- and certainly their most consistent RHH for five months (pre ankle-injury) -- in Turner.

 

I understand the need to free up the DH to improve the overall team, but is it really reasonable to expect improvement in yet another area -- in this case, the offense -- that the front office chose not to compensate with established MLB talent?

 

Per ZiPS projections:

 

Turner 749 OPS

Story 755 OPS

 

I think this is what they are relying on.

[moonslav59]

Sox got a .267 wOBA from the SS position last year. Story is projected to get between .312 and .323. Sox 2b last year had a .306 wOBA last year. Grissom’s projections run from .320 to .337…

 

The defensive improvement should be even better.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Per ZiPS projections:

 

Turner 749 OPS

Story 755 OPS

 

I think this is what they are relying on.

 

Don't let Werner see this -- next thing you know, he'll be telling reporters in Florida that the Red Sox making comebacks will be better than any talent available in free agency... or on the trading block... but maybe not in the draft, where they can pick more shortstops they'll be afraid to deal for real pitchers.

[sk7326]

I don't think they make the trade if they believe he's a bullpen arm. They are keeping him as a starter for the next few years.

 

Oh I think they are going to start him until he proves otherwise. He (sadly) immediately if the best starter prospect in the org.

[sk7326]

Honestly, Boston was 78-84 last year and I see no reason to think they are worse. The defense has the promise of at least being average, and the pitching has not backslid (though it has not improved). A lot depends on Story and some youngsters - but in the land of the 3 wild cards, not all THAT much has to go right to see October baseball. It'd be nice if one of the Boras pitchers shows up - even on a short deal, but I am not betting anything important on that.

[Larry Cook]

Grissom will get fulltime run. O'Neilllll will most likely not be healthy enough.

 

Does janson start the year on the DL

[moonslav59]

Does janson start the year on the DL

 

I'll guess no.

[moonslav59]

A lot depends on Story and some youngsters - but in the land of the 3 wild cards, not all THAT much has to go right to see October baseball.

 

If I had to pick 3 guys that could make or break this season, I'd go with...

 

Story

Giolito

Grissom

 

The next 3 might be...

Duran

Pivetta

Crawford

 

Okay, I'll go 9...

O'Neill

Rafaela

Houck

 

I'm banking on Devers, Casas and Bello to be steady.

[cp176]

2b could be better. The Sox didn’t even have a regular 2b last year.

 

If they don’t get another OF and go with Duran in LF and Rafaela in CF, those are both upgrades over Yoshida in LF and Duran in CF.

 

We’ll see if O’Neill (and his two Gold Gloves) is better than Verdugo in RF.

 

There’s a chance the Sox have upgraded the defense everywhere except catcher, 1b and 3b…

 

I agree that the "potential" to be a better defensive team than last year does exist.

[mvp 78]

Does janson start the year on the DL

 

He should be throwing soon, so probably not.

[mvp 78]

If I had to pick 3 guys that could make or break this season, I'd go with...

 

Henry

Crag

Unnamed FO Sources

[moonslav59]

I agree that the "potential" to be a better defensive team than last year does exist.

 

As long as Rafaela or Abreu are in CF, I think it is beyond potential. Rafaela in CF, Abreu in RF and Duran/O'Neill in LF is the ideal defensive OF, but I think we need Duran & O'Neill's bats in the line-up almost everyday.

 

Duran has yet to prove he can hit lefties, consistently, but when both are healthy, which might not be all that often, they should NOT platoon. That is where things start to get dicey. Duran LF, Rafaela/Abreu CF and O'Neill in RF, when all are healthy is still a step up on OF D.

 

To me, the IF depth is a lock to be better. Only injuries can change that.

[mvp 78]

Ride O'Neillll hard and put him away wet until he breaks down. Abreu takes over while O'Neillllll is on IL.