Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports on the Mets:

 

Should they fail to land Yamamoto, Sammon suggests that the club doesn’t plan on pivoting to other top-of-the-market free agents such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Rather, Sammon suggests the Mets could pivot to a mid-market arm like Lucas Giolito...

[moonslav59]

MLBTR reports on the Mets:

 

Should they fail to land Yamamoto, Sammon suggests that the club doesn’t plan on pivoting to other top-of-the-market free agents such as Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery. Rather, Sammon suggests the Mets could pivot to a mid-market arm like Lucas Giolito...

 

Does this mean if SFG or NYY get Yamo, we have a better shot at Monty or Snell?

 

It looks like LAD does not want Snell, so that might be one team out on him.

 

NYY Yamo

SFG Imanaga

LAD Monty

BOS Snell

NYM Giolito

 

[Bellhorn04]

Also some seem to think Ohtani’s “selfless” contract might be little more than a tax dodge…

 

https://www.yahoo.com/news/baseball-star-shohei-ohtanis-contract-185523206.html

 

Personally I find "tax dodge" to be ******** terminology.

 

If it's tax evasion (a very similar word to "dodging"), it's illegal, and you can go to jail for it.

 

But if it's legal, then it's what most people would call "smart". Everyone has the right to minimize their tax liabilities by any legal means.

 

I guess it is kind of comical that it's the Dodgers enabling this scheme, though...

[redsoxrules]

After Ohtani's contact is done aren't the Dodgers still going to be on the hook for luxury tax purposes for the 10 following years?

[Bellhorn04]

After Ohtani's contact is done aren't the Dodgers still going to be on the hook for luxury tax purposes for the 10 following years?

 

No, they'll *just* be on the hook for the actual payments of 680 mill.

 

This is not the first contract with big deferrals. Scherzer's contract with the Nats was officially 7 years and 210 mill, but the actual payments are 14 years at 15 mill.

 

Ohtani's obviously blows all the others away, of course.

 

I imagine this will be discussed in the next round of CBA negotiations.

[oldtimer]

I think the Sox have made a good faith offer to Yamamoto but the probability off winning the bidding war is around 20%. I think the Sox are awaiting settlement of that issue, by Jan 4th, before committing to other expensive offers. It is a risky approach as other quality arms might take offers before the Sox get in the mix for others. My fear is that the Sox will wind up not getting anyone of note and go into the 2024 season no better off than during Blooms years. We have seen talk the talk before, now it's time to walk the walk. Still, moves have to be made wisely. So far, there have been no high level acquisitions.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

My fear is that the Sox will wind up not getting anyone of note and go into the 2024 season no better off than during Blooms years. We have seen talk the talk before, now it's time to walk the walk. Still, moves have to be made wisely. So far, there have been no high level acquisitions.

 

Even fans who still do the wave and sing "so good" know that unless significant changes are made, the Sox will just be in Full Prattle.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the Sox have made a good faith offer to Yamamoto but the probability off winning the bidding war is around 20%. I think the Sox are awaiting settlement of that issue, by Jan 4th, before committing to other expensive offers. It is a risky approach as other quality arms might take offers before the Sox get in the mix for others. My fear is that the Sox will wind up not getting anyone of note and go into the 2024 season no better off than during Blooms years. We have seen talk the talk before, now it's time to walk the walk. Still, moves have to be made wisely. So far, there have been no high level acquisitions.

 

I will say that the size of the offer to Yamamoto does suggest they're not totally yanking our chains, at least.

[Bellhorn04]

Even fans who still do the wave and sing "so good" know that unless significant changes are made, the Sox will just be in Full Prattle.

 

Full Waddle was a good one.

[notin]

No, they'll *just* be on the hook for the actual payments of 680 mill.

 

This is not the first contract with big deferrals. Scherzer's contract with the Nats was officially 7 years and 210 mill, but the actual payments are 14 years at 15 mill.

 

Ohtani's obviously blows all the others away, of course.

 

I imagine this will be discussed in the next round of CBA negotiations.

 

If deferred payments don’t impact luxury tax, why isn’t every team doing this? All the time?

[Bellhorn04]

If deferred payments don’t impact luxury tax, why isn’t every team doing this? All the time?

 

The player has to agree to it too.

 

This was a perfect setup for Ohtani. He makes a ton off the field so he doesn't need a big paycheque from the Dodgers. Most players want the paycheques ASAP, I figure.

[notin]

I think the Sox have made a good faith offer to Yamamoto but the probability off winning the bidding war is around 20%. I think the Sox are awaiting settlement of that issue, by Jan 4th, before committing to other expensive offers. It is a risky approach as other quality arms might take offers before the Sox get in the mix for others. My fear is that the Sox will wind up not getting anyone of note and go into the 2024 season no better off than during Blooms years. We have seen talk the talk before, now it's time to walk the walk. Still, moves have to be made wisely. So far, there have been no high level acquisitions.

 

The Sox aren’t getting Yamamoto, but it’s not because of some half as effort; they simply cannot outbid the Mets and for the same reason I can’t outbid Jeff Bezos for something he wants.

 

It is a dicey situation if waiting for Yamamoyo means watching Montgomery, etc. sign elsewhere.

 

Fortunately Montgomery/Snell/Stroman have no deadline for when they can sign, and Yamamoto does. The posting process requires he reach an agreement within a certain number of days of being posted, or he returns to Japan. I think his deadline is January 4. Unless some team stops up and blows away Montgomery or Snell, either is unlikely to sign anywhere before then. With all the big spenders linked to Yamamoto, they have interest in seeing who loses…

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox aren’t getting Yamamoto, but it’s not because of some half as effort; they simply cannot outbid the Mets and for the same reason I can’t outbid Jeff Bezos for something he wants.

 

It is a dicey situation if waiting for Yamamoyo means watching Montgomery, etc. sign elsewhere.

 

Fortunately Montgomery/Snell/Stroman have no deadline for when they can sign, and Yamamoto does. The posting process requires he reach an agreement within a certain number of days of being posted, or he tries to Japan. I think his deadline is January 4. Unless some team stops up and blows away Montgomery or Snell, either is unlikely to sign anywhere before then. With all the big spenders linked to Yamamoto, they have interest in seeing who loses…

 

Mostly agree, but one or two of the big spenders might give up on Moto and seize the moment to swoop on Snell or Monty with an offer they can't refuse.

[notin]

The player has to agree to it too.

 

This was a perfect setup for Ohtani. He makes a ton off the field so he doesn't need a big paycheque from the Dodgers. Most players want the paycheques ASAP, I figure.

 

Do they?

 

Most of them make far more than they actually need, and anyone with any sponsorship deals is even more well off.

[Bellhorn04]

Do they?

 

Most of them make far more than they actually need, and anyone with any sponsorship deals is even more well off.

 

Right, but what's the incentive for the player to agree to the deferrals, is the question.

[dgalehouse]

The Sox organization is definitely in the doghouse of many, many fans. Yamamoto is the big prize out there, but if they pay the price for him, there are going to be cries of why didn't they have the money for Mookie but now have it for a guy who has yet to win a game in MLB. I think that only by winning can they get out of this self- created doghouse. Not to mention that Yamamoto better be as good as advertised. The organization has put themselves in this situation through a series of bad decisions.

[notin]

Mostly agree, but one or two of the big spenders might give up on Moto and seize the moment to swoop on Snell or Monty with an offer they can't refuse.

 

Maybe. But if you see Snell’s or Montgomery’s agent, wouldn’t you advise your client “let’s just wait this out”?

 

That team isn’t so likely to pull an offer that blows a player away. If the last remaining prizes are Yamamoto, Snell and Montgomery, pulling that offer would take two of those options away..

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox organization is definitely in the doghouse of many, many fans. Yamamoto is the big prize out there, but if they pay the price for him, there are going to be cries of why didn't they have the money for Mookie but now have it for a guy who has yet to win a game in MLB. I think that only by winning can they get out of this self- created doghouse. Not to mention that Yamamoto better be as good as advertised. The organization has put themselves in this situation through a series of bad decisions.

 

Agree on all counts.

[notin]

Right, but what's the incentive for the player to agree to the deferrals, is the question.

 

Salary would not be limited by luxury tax impact…

[notin]

The Sox organization is definitely in the doghouse of many, many fans. Yamamoto is the big prize out there, but if they pay the price for him, there are going to be cries of why didn't they have the money for Mookie but now have it for a guy who has yet to win a game in MLB. I think that only by winning can they get out of this self- created doghouse. Not to mention that Yamamoto better be as good as advertised. The organization has put themselves in this situation through a series of bad decisions.

 

Did anyone ask why the Sox couldn’t afford Mookie when Devers was signed?

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe. But if you see Snell’s or Montgomery’s agent, wouldn’t you advise your client “let’s just wait this out”?

 

That team isn’t so likely to pull an offer that blows a player away. If the last remaining prizes are Yamamoto, Snell and Montgomery, pulling that offer would take two of those options away..

 

It's been done though, right? Teams are always pivoting. The Jays might make a take it or leave it offer to Monty and if he declines, turn to Bellinger or re-signing Chapman or whatever.

 

It's wacky stuff. Rich men being fought over by even richer men. Not necessarily rational or predictable.

[Bellhorn04]

Did anyone ask why the Sox couldn’t afford Mookie when Devers was signed?

 

Oh yeah.

[Bellhorn04]

Salary would not be limited by luxury tax impact…

 

There's still impact. Ohtani's AAV is $46 mill. Not $70 mill, but still a fairly hefty number.

[notin]

There's still impact. Ohtani's AAV is $46 mill. Not $70 mill, but still a fairly hefty number.

 

Deferred salary, I mean.

 

If any player is reluctant, just have the benefits explained to them by Bobby Bonilla…

[dgalehouse]

Snell and Montgomery are both Boras' clients, so they are not going to be so easy to sign either.

[notin]

It's been done though, right? Teams are always pivoting. The Jays might make a take it or leave it offer to Monty and if he declines, turn to Bellinger or re-signing Chapman or whatever.

 

It's wacky stuff. Rich men being fought over by even richer men. Not necessarily rational or predictable.

 

These richer men didn’t get to be so ridiculously wealthy by being as impulsive as your scenario requires…

[Bellhorn04]

These richer men didn’t get to be so ridiculously wealthy by being as impulsive as your scenario requires…

 

You don't think any free agent signings qualify as "impulsive" or some other word connoting less than brilliant ideas?

[Bellhorn04]

Snell and Montgomery are both Boras' clients, so they are not going to be so easy to sign either.

 

Yoshida is a Boras client too. If a team makes a big enough offer, Scott will advise his client to jump on it. He doesn't necessarily advocate the waiting game.

[jad]

Did anyone ask why the Sox couldn’t afford Mookie when Devers was signed?

 

No. Because the RS could afford Mookie. It's just that JH's wallet was more important.

[Hugh2]

If deferred payments don’t impact luxury tax, why isn’t every team doing this? All the time?

 

It happens fairly often, just never on this scale. And it probably never will for a long time.

 

Ohtani is different, both as a player and as a marketable asset.

 

He made $40 million in endorsements last year, the next two highest were Trout and Judge at $5 and $6 million. If those guys did what Ohtani did they’d be making what a bench bat does. Ohtani however? Still a 40 million dollar player.

 

Crazy