Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[notin]

Yamamoto is the best case scenario, but Imanaga + Montgomery might cost the same as Yamamoto alone. I mean, they need to do something big, but if they let their offseason hinge on Yamamoto and he signs elsewhere they're f***ed. They should pivot now if they have the money to spend.

 

No urgent need to pivot now; most of the A List options are still available, and most if not all are unlikely to sign before Yamamoto.

 

Jim Duquette was on MLB Network’s Front Office suggesting Yamamoto would likely sign before Christmas. I have my doubts, but his posting system deadline is January 4. So that’s worst case. And it still leaves plenty of time for the vultures to circle over Montgomery, Snell, etc…

Edited December 19, 2023 by notin

[Dipre]

No urgent need to pivot now; most of the A List options are still available, and most of not all are unlikely to sign before Yamamoto.

 

Jim Duquette was on MLB Network’s Front Office suggesting Yamamoto would likely sign before Christmas. I have my doubts, but his posting system deadline is January 4. So that’s worst case. And it still leaves plenty of time for the vultures to circle over Montgomery, Snell, etc…

 

If he signs somewhere else, all of the losing teams will flood the market trying to sign the alternatives.

[Bellhorn04]

If he signs somewhere else, all of the losing teams will flood the market trying to sign the alternatives.

 

Which was very predictable, of course...but was it factored into the Sox strategy for this offseason?

[Hugh2]

Yamamoto has to take a physical before any deal is finalized. Probably not an issue, but not terribly unlikely something comes up as we've seen this before. Between that and travel time you'd think he would need some time and leway in there from that January 4th deadline. I really really really doubt Yamamoto takes this all the way up to January 4th, I think it's done before christmas.

 

Then again, I thought we'd know by yesterday morning where he would sign.

[mvp 78]

Red Sox don't have to win the offseason, but they have to perform much much better in 2024. And I just don't know how they do that without some roster reconstruction. I think Breslow deserves a year or two to truly assess what type of POBO he can be, but it's not a good look for him and even more so for John Henry at this point if they don't make any big moves this offseason.

 

John Henry deserves to be booed. Like, someone needs to tweet about his whereabouts 24/7 the same way that kid did to Elon Musk and it needs to be a constant stream of Boos everywhere he goes for life until he grows some balls or sells the team. Ok, maybe that's a little too much. I'm still holding out hope for Yama, and ultimately I won't really complain until the season begins because so much can still happen from here until there. But one can be forgiven for getting a little worried that this teams offseason performance will be flaccid.

 

I can give Henry all the credit for 2004-2018, but he has lost the plot. Maybe all the success has led him to believe that there isn't urgency to stay competitive? IDK. He wants a good team, but doesn't want to pay for it. Maybe it's time for him to focus on something else. Maybe sell his stake in FSG?

[sk7326]

Which was very predictable, of course...but was it factored into the Sox strategy for this offseason?

 

I think so ... not to give them too much credit.

[moonslav59]

If he signs somewhere else, all of the losing teams will flood the market trying to sign the alternatives.

 

There aren't many top alternatives.

 

Maybe Bellinger to the Mets or Jays, if they miss out, plus a 2nd or 3rd tier SP.

 

Kershaw to LAD.

 

Does Hader count as a major score?

 

Snell or Monty to a team that falls short on Yamo. Then what? There are at least 6-7 teams looking to make a major addition and only 4-5 high impact FAs available.

 

Even 2 pitchers from the next tier falls way short, IMO. Maybe, Imanaga does better than expected, then there are...

 

Stroman

Giolito

Clevinger

 

Someone will be left out in the cold. It's easy to imagine it being us. It's been out M.O. for 5 years.

 

The trade market might blow up, after these guys are all signed.

 

[mvp 78]

Which was very predictable, of course...but was it factored into the Sox strategy for this offseason?

 

If it wasn't, it's pretty embarrassing.

[moonslav59]

I can give Henry all the credit for 2004-2018, but he has lost the plot. Maybe all the success has led him to believe that there isn't urgency to stay competitive? IDK. He wants a good team, but doesn't want to pay for it. Maybe it's time for him to focus on something else. Maybe sell his stake in FSG?

 

I'm not sure how much different these past 4 years are from 2012-2015. Some view the 2013 ring season as a fluke. Once could view 2021 as one, too.

69, 97, 71, 78 were the win totals from '12-'15

65*, 92, 78, 78 were the win totals from '20-'23 (*2020 pro-rated)

 

This isn't the first time we have had a long stretch of questionable commitment to winning. After the big Dodger salary dump trade, who did we replace AGon, Beckett and CC with? Vic, Napoli & Dempster. At the time, many felt that wasn't even a half-hearted try at building a winning team.

 

I'm not saying history will repeat itself, and ship will be righted, but I don't think we should use a broad brush to paint the 2004-2018 era as all glory and no suffering times.

 

This post is not intended to encourage anyone into thinking JH will do what it takes2, as he did after 2015. I have no idea what he is thinking. I have no optimism he will re-commit himself and the organization to winning.

 

I'm optimistic about the promising farm and decent foundation. In a league that is perhaps as balanced as it has been a long time, I could see us getting relevant, again with just 3 major additions (SP1, SP2/3 and 2B w big RH bat,) and we seem to have the budget space and trade capital to make it happen, but I see no signs it will get done.

 

Winning the Yamo sweepstakes would be a major step forward, but that seems like a small chance. I'm not sure Monty, Imanaga and Merrifield is enough to even make us a favorite to be a WC team. A big trade would have to happen, and that would weaken the longer term outlook, in terms of young, low cost talent joining the team in the next few years.

 

I'm not optimistic, at all. I'm barely hopeful, but history could possibly repeat itself.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This whole month pretending to be big players in the Moto Sweepstakes has been a clever ruse by Breslow and Co. (which is really Company and Brez).

 

Watch: after Yama signs for $400M with a New York team, all the other clubs will scramble to ink the consolation prizes... but not Boston... instead, the Red Sox will shock the world by announcing they paid off Japan to change its rules, and introduce the majors' first $500M-dollar pitcher -- Roki Sasaki!!!

[sk7326]

But what are the chances of him becoming a $30mill version of Michael Kopech?

 

Such is life in acquiring pitching. I mean David Price was one of the most durable pitchers in the majors - until he wasn't. All you can do is get the medical people's sign off and hope.

[moonslav59]

Such is life in acquiring pitching. I mean David Price was one of the most durable pitchers in the majors - until he wasn't. All you can do is get the medical people's sign off and hope.

 

I remember thinking, at the time of the Price signing, that no pitcher has looked like a surer bet than he was.

 

I liked Scherzer, the year before, and I'm not talking hindsight, but I felt like the market was better the following year for SP'ers. It made sense, to me, in theory as a two year rebuild plan to go O in '15 and Pitching in '16. We failed, miserably on all 3 signings: Pablito, HRam & Price.

 

Now, the late '22 and 2023-2024 looks like Story, Yoshi and ______.

 

Yikes!

[Bellhorn04]

If it wasn't, it's pretty embarrassing.

 

It would be dorky indeed.

[moonslav59]

While lacking in big splash moves, the Royals have sure made some significant additions, recently. Maybe more quantity than quality, and we saw how that worked for Bloom, but when you were as bad as KC was, this looks like nice step forward:

 

Wacha

Lugo

Will Smith

Renfroe

Chris Stratton

[mvp 78]

I'm not sure how much different these past 4 years are from 2012-2015. Some view the 2013 ring season as a fluke. Once could view 2021 as one, too.

69, 97, 71, 78 were the win totals from '12-'15

65*, 92, 78, 78 were the win totals from '20-'23 (*2020 pro-rated)

 

In 2021, they basically just ran the same group out there and hoped for the best. The only meaningful additions were Kiké, Renfroe and Garrett Richards.

 

In 2013, they added Gomes, Victorino, Carp, Napoli, Drew, Uehara and Dempster.

[Bellhorn04]

In 2021, they basically just ran the same group out there and hoped for the best. The only meaningful additions were Kiké, Renfroe and Garrett Richards.

 

Call it lucky, but Whitlock was huge that year too.

[harmony]

There aren't many top alternatives.

 

Maybe Bellinger to the Mets or Jays, if they miss out, plus a 2nd or 3rd tier SP.

 

Kershaw to LAD.

 

Does Hader count as a major score?

 

Snell or Monty to a team that falls short on Yamo. Then what? There are at least 6-7 teams looking to make a major addition and only 4-5 high impact FAs available.

 

Even 2 pitchers from the next tier falls way short, IMO. Maybe, Imanaga does better than expected, then there are...

 

Stroman

Giolito

Clevinger

 

Someone will be left out in the cold. It's easy to imagine it being us. It's been out M.O. for 5 years.

 

The trade market might blow up, after these guys are all signed.

 

Should the Red Sox be aiming to contend in 2024? Or do the obstacles appear too steep this offseason?

 

In other words, should the Sox eschew the high-end market until they’re only a piece or two away from contention?

[mvp 78]

While lacking in big splash moves, the Royals have sure made some significant additions, recently. Maybe more quantity than quality, and we saw how that worked for Bloom, but when you were as bad as KC was, this looks like nice step forward:

 

Wacha

Lugo

Will Smith

Renfroe

Chris Stratton

 

Renfroe really struggled last season. As he ages, that -6 run value vs 4 seamers may get even worse. I know he had injuries, but that's kind of the gag with him and why he's gone from team to team.

 

Stratton and Smith are just average to slightly above average bullpen arms.

 

Lugo doesn't have a long track record as a starter.

 

Wacha comes with significant injury risk as we know.

 

It's a lot of journeyman types that are probably being a little overpaid IMO.

[sk7326]

I'm not sure how much different these past 4 years are from 2012-2015. Some view the 2013 ring season as a fluke. Once could view 2021 as one, too.

69, 97, 71, 78 were the win totals from '12-'15

65*, 92, 78, 78 were the win totals from '20-'23 (*2020 pro-rated)

 

This isn't the first time we have had a long stretch of questionable commitment to winning. After the big Dodger salary dump trade, who did we replace AGon, Beckett and CC with? Vic, Napoli & Dempster. At the time, many felt that wasn't even a half-hearted try at building a winning team.

 

I'm not saying history will repeat itself, and ship will be righted, but I don't think we should use a broad brush to paint the 2004-2018 era as all glory and no suffering times.

 

This post is not intended to encourage anyone into thinking JH will do what it takes2, as he did after 2015. I have no idea what he is thinking. I have no optimism he will re-commit himself and the organization to winning.

 

I'm optimistic about the promising farm and decent foundation. In a league that is perhaps as balanced as it has been a long time, I could see us getting relevant, again with just 3 major additions (SP1, SP2/3 and 2B w big RH bat,) and we seem to have the budget space and trade capital to make it happen, but I see no signs it will get done.

 

Winning the Yamo sweepstakes would be a major step forward, but that seems like a small chance. I'm not sure Monty, Imanaga and Merrifield is enough to even make us a favorite to be a WC team. A big trade would have to happen, and that would weaken the longer term outlook, in terms of young, low cost talent joining the team in the next few years.

 

I'm not optimistic, at all. I'm barely hopeful, but history could possibly repeat itself.

 

 

In terms of wins, yes - in terms of hope, less so. I mean 2012 was a disappointment because of injuries, underperformance, and Bobby V's existence. 2013 was a bit of a fluke, though a lot of it came from the Red Sox getting good seasons from their actual stars. Victorino was a miracle, but the rest of it was just folks being healthy. And health was important in the 2014 situation. 2015 included the addition of two huge free agents who were both awful. There were mistakes, and struggles but the team was pretty proactive and each of those seasons had some reasonable ex ante hope.

 

The issue with 2022-23 in particular is the lack of visible ceiling for the ballclub.

[mvp 78]

Call it lucky, but Whitlock was huge that year too.

 

Sure, but when we're talking about "going for it" Rule 5 additions aren't typically in the mix.

[mvp 78]

Should the Red Sox be aiming to contend in 2024? Or do the obstacles appear too steep this offseason?

 

In other words, should the Sox eschew the high-end market until they’re only a piece or two away from contention?

 

How do you know when you are really only a piece or two away? Who knows if those pieces will be ready at that time?

[sk7326]

Should the Red Sox be aiming to contend in 2024? Or do the obstacles appear too steep this offseason?

 

In other words, should the Sox eschew the high-end market until they’re only a piece or two away from contention?

 

I think the team cannot avoid bringing in pitching from the outside because they simply don't have any. They are a slightly above average payroll team - so there is budget room. I mean last year's club with any sort of reliable run prevention, would have likely been in the wild card soup. So I don't think the pathway is that long. Put another way, if we add some decent pitching and upgrade out defense from "actively harmful" to "fine" - we should be in the postseason mix, even if it is the wildcard kind.

 

Now, I do think the team should be hesitant to make a ton of long term commitments to position players. First, it's not a very good group of position players now that Ohtani is off the market. Second, I do want to give runway for the kids we do have to take positions.

[notin]

How do you know when you are really only a piece or two away? Who knows if those pieces will be ready at that time?

 

And no one knows whether or not those key pieces on other tabs will go down for the season…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Should the Red Sox be aiming to contend in 2024? Or do the obstacles appear too steep this offseason?

 

In other words, should the Sox eschew the high-end market until they’re only a piece or two away from contention?

 

Regarding such a concept -- in the John Henry Century -- I've always thought: that does not compute.

 

To any fan of a big market team owned by a multi-billionaire -- saying, "Since we're not good enough, let's not get good players until we're good enough" -- is just not good enough.

[Bellhorn04]

How do you know when you are really only a piece or two away? Who knows if those pieces will be ready at that time?

 

There really is no magic blueprint. Look at the Rangers. What was their plan?

 

"OK, we'll spend $500 mill on 2 star position players this offseason. We'll still really suck in 2022. But then we'll go apeshit on starting pitching for 2023, the biggest names of which will get injured and be virtually useless. This should clearly result in our first World Series title."

[mvp 78]

Regarding such a concept -- in the John Henry Century -- I've always thought: that does not compute.

 

To any fan of a big market team owned by a multi-billionaire -- saying, "Since we're not good enough, let's not get good players until we're good enough" -- is just not good enough.

 

Rangers shouldn't have acquired Semien and Seager until they were one or two pieces away!

[mvp 78]

There really is no magic blueprint. Look at the Rangers. What was their plan?

 

"OK, we'll spend $500 mill on 2 star position players this offseason. We'll still really suck in 2022. But then we'll go apeshit on starting pitching for 2023, the biggest names of which will get injured and be virtually useless. This should clearly result in our first World Series title."

 

Yes. You just gotta get the guys you want when they are available.

[sk7326]

There really is no magic blueprint. Look at the Rangers. What was their plan?

 

"OK, we'll spend $500 mill on 2 star position players this offseason. We'll still really suck in 2022. But then we'll go apeshit on starting pitching for 2023, the biggest names of which will get injured and be virtually useless. This should clearly result in our first World Series title."

 

I do think there IS a lesson there - in that the Rangers went and got good players when they were available, and did not time it. Like the Red Sox decided - whether it be ownership or the baseball ops - to sign the top rated UFAs in two seasons where the top of the class just wasn't particularly good. (Crawford in 2011, Ramirez/Sandoval in 2015) Those were seasons you'd like to sit out - but they were also the seasons that the Red Sox decided "we must go shopping NOW".

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes. You just gotta get the guys you want when they are available.

 

That's why the Betts trade was never going to be a good thing -- no matter how bad the team was going to be because "his salary will suck the budget dry" -- OMG, it would sure suck watching a homegrown fan favorite posting MVP WAR every season, a foundational star to build around. No, we'd rather just suck with a roster full of suck.

[Hugh2]

Rangers shouldn't have acquired Semien and Seager until they were one or two pieces away!

 

 

I think it helps to look at the long term horizon at times. Perhaps this isn't the year for the Sox, maybe they see their window starting in 2025, but if you like a pitcher in this years market better than what may come next year why not go out and make that move now?

 

Yamamoto is going to improve this team in 2024, but beyond that as well. Now maybe it's Montgomery/Snell/Burnes etc.