Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Old Red]

He already is..

 

100% wrong. Show me where I said I want to sign Monty, Gray, or Snell. Even though they all would help I’m 100% against signing any of them unless the money was right.

[moonslav59]

But will you be complaining when they fail to sign these guys?

 

He doesn't want us to overpay for anybody, then complains that our GM does nothing.

[mvp 78]

If the failed talks with the Mariners are any indication, there's a good chance the Sox find it's not the best time for them to swing a big trade for a pitcher either.

 

They also didn't like the asks from the ChiSox last season for Cease. If the Brewers aren't looking to deal, the Sox better pony up some $$$.

[mvp 78]

Not at all, and I’ve been saying that since before all this offseason stuff even started. I’m not for over paying in money, and years for the Gray, Monty, and Snell types. Go make some trades. I know you guys are all in for these pitches, because the Red Sox have the big need, but I just don’t think they are worth what they will get.

 

Ok, at least I know your position now.

[mvp 78]

He doesn't want us to overpay for anybody, then complains that our GM does nothing.

 

He wants the CBO to trade our farm to bring guys in rather than go the FA route.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Money will play a big part too, but when you really get right down to it what’s the big lure of coming to Boston?

 

If you're a smart pitcher, it's all those raw and crappy nights through March/April/May when you can constantly break bats by cutting deliveries into hitters' hands for six innings.

 

Would you really rather throw in the NL West, where balls fly in Colorado and Arizona, and temps are too comfy for batters in California (except late innings in San Francisco, at any time, day or night).

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not saying he won't spend. I'm saying at some point, he might think, "I can do better with my money" than signing Yamo.

 

Let's say the price gets so high, he could sign Imanaga and Monty, instead. Might he not decide to do that, and let the Sox have Yamo?

 

More likely, let the Yankees have him...

[moonslav59]

He wants the CBO to trade our farm to bring guys in rather than go the FA route.

 

I'm not against that idea to some extent, but he also complains we don't spend as much as we used to, and JH needs to go.

 

If we don't overpay, how else do we spend?

 

26 tem million dollar guys like Richards and Kluber?

[moonslav59]

More likely, let the Yankees have him...

 

I do agree, it is more likely the Mets or Yanks get 2 from Yamo, Snell and Monty, but I don't think it's a slam dunk we have no or very long odds at getting one.

 

I'm also fine with Monty and Imanaga, if the Mets get Yamo and the Yanks get Snell.

[Bellhorn04]

They also didn't like the asks from the ChiSox last season for Cease. If the Brewers aren't looking to deal, the Sox better pony up some $$$.

 

It's quite likely the Brewers are very willing to deal Burnes, for a hefty prospect package.

 

But are the Sox willing to do that and follow up with a big extension to Burnes?

 

I'm a skeptic these days so I'm thinking no...

[Old Red]

Ok, at least I know your position now.

 

Like I said it hasn’t changed since before all this FA period started.

[moonslav59]

I'm starting to think Imanaga belongs in the same tier as Monty and Snell (Gray and Nola are gone.)

 

I can't see why we should be shut out from one of them:

 

NYM

NYY

TOR

SFG

BOS

 

Yamo (odds are he goes to NYM or NYY)

Snell (odds are he goes to the loser of the Yamo race.)

 

Monty

Imanaga

 

The loser on these two may sign 2 of the next tier, but yuck! (It better not be us!)

[Old Red]

He wants the CBO to trade our farm to bring guys in rather than go the FA route.

 

Oh, those precious suspects. No one is saying trade THE FARM. Just some of them.

[Bellhorn04]

I do agree, it is more likely the Mets or Yanks get 2 from Yamo, Snell and Monty, but I don't think it's a slam dunk we have no or very long odds at getting one.

 

I'm also fine with Monty and Imanaga, if the Mets get Yamo and the Yanks get Snell.

 

Or maybe we end up with one of those too little, too late "fan-pleasing" moves like the Story signing...

[Bellhorn04]

I'm starting to think Imanaga belongs in the same tier as Monty and Snell (Gray and Nola are gone.)

 

Based on what?

[Old Red]

For the last two years all you guys wanted to do was sell, sell, sell, because the team wasn’t good enough to make trades to improve the club when that would have been the time to do something instead of waiting until now when there is more of a big need, and more in need, and now to get better you want to pay, pay, and pay even more.

[mvp 78]

Oh, those precious suspects. No one is saying trade THE FARM. Just some of them.

 

I wasn't trying to imply that your position was wrong or that you were trading everyone.

[mvp 78]

For the last two years all you guys wanted to do was sell, sell, sell, because the team wasn’t good enough to make trades to improve the club when that would have been the time to do something instead of waiting until now when there is more of a big need, and more in need, and now to get better you want to pay, pay, and pay even more.

 

I think they need to trade some prospects and buy some FA's. I think they need to do both. They need a well rounded approach to fix the flaws of their current pipeline.

[mvp 78]

I'm starting to think Imanaga belongs in the same tier as Monty and Snell (Gray and Nola are gone.)

 

Why? His numbers are decent in Japan, but he's most likely a 3 over here. Snell has ace upside. Imanaga does not. Monty throws a ton of innings. Imanaga throws even less innings than Yamamoto does. I like Imanaga, but there's a chance that his contract is NOT worth it. His game may not translate as well.

[mvp 78]

It's quite likely the Brewers are very willing to deal Burnes, for a hefty prospect package.

 

But are the Sox willing to do that and follow up with a big extension to Burnes?

 

I'm a skeptic these days so I'm thinking no...

 

They should be willing to do it.

 

Burnes

Adames

 

for

 

Mayer

[Old Red]

I wasn't trying to imply that your position was wrong or that you were trading everyone.

 

I know I’m in the minority in thinking on this, but I just can’t see way overpaying for someone. Gray had never made more than $10M before, and now at age 34 he’s worth $25M/yr? Has he gotten that good? No. He’s just available. Monty was projected at 5/$105M before this all started, and they said he would only get a 5th yr, because that’s what it would take, and not, because he’s that good

[sk7326]

I'm starting to think Imanaga belongs in the same tier as Monty and Snell (Gray and Nola are gone.)

 

I can't see why we should be shut out from one of them:

 

NYM

NYY

TOR

SFG

BOS

 

Yamo (odds are he goes to NYM or NYY)

Snell (odds are he goes to the loser of the Yamo race.)

 

Monty

Imanaga

 

The loser on these two may sign 2 of the next tier, but yuck! (It better not be us!)

 

Yamamoto and Snell are the clear top 2 for sure. Snell one wishes just pitched more innings or he'd be an easy #1.

 

Montgomery and Imanaga are similar in that they are 30 year olds who had their best seasons most recently. But the level of competition matters. Imanaga might end up being a better value than Montgomery from a $$/WAR perspective. But Montgomery is the slightly safer bet imo.

[notin]

It's quite likely the Brewers are very willing to deal Burnes, for a hefty prospect package.

 

But are the Sox willing to do that and follow up with a big extension to Burnes?

 

I'm a skeptic these days so I'm thinking no...

 

Burnes switched his representation to Boras after a couple years of feeling underpaid in arbitration. Chances are very good he wants to test the market and it would be EXTREMELY costly to convince him otherwise. He’s a tough target.

 

Bieber on the other hand has already said he’s open to an extension and isn’t likely to require the same outlay of prospects. But he had some physical issues last year that likely mean he is well aware this coming season is a big risk for him.

 

Not sure who else is on the trade market for pitching. Cease is still available but not so tempting (as far as we know) to Breslow. I can see reasons for and against Cease.

 

Cabrera seems to be perennially available from Miami. But he’s a walk machine who struggles to avoid getting demoted. On the other hand, he does have a live arm with tempting radar gun readings (which supposedly is something Breslow prefers). The Sox and Marlins do matchup somewhat given out outfield surplus. But I can see some red flags in Cabrera, too.

 

On the free agent front, Montgomery is solid, Imanaga is intriguing, and Giolito want as bad in 2023 as some stats indicate. (However he was worse in 2022 than he was in 2023. Is he declining?)

[moonslav59]

Based on what?

 

Looking more closely at his last 3 year numbers in Japan, especially his K/BB rate, which is the one thing better than Yamo's, last year.

 

Imanaga's numbers...

ERA (IP) K/BB

2.83 (149) 4.4 in '21

2.04 (159) 4.7 in '22

2.66 (159) 7.9 in '23 (age 29)

 

Yamo...

1.39 (194) 5.2 in '21

1.68 (193) 4.9 in '22

1.16 (171) 6.3 in '23 (age 24)

 

I'm not trying to say he's better than Yamo, but if we are anointing Yamo king, based on his numbers, then Imanaga's look pretty good, too. Maybe not as good as Monty or Snell, but possibly close enough to be in the same tier.

 

At worst, he might be the best of the next tier.

[notin]

And Snell is just flat out overrated…

[mvp 78]

I know I’m in the minority in thinking on this, but I just can’t see way overpaying for someone. Gray had never made more than $10M before, and now at age 34 he’s worth $25M/yr? Has he gotten that good? No. He’s just available. Monty was projected at 5/$105M before this all started, and they said he would only get a 5th yr, because that’s what it would take, and not, because he’s that good

 

It's the cost of doing business. If you don't play the game, you'll get passed by all the other teams.

[mvp 78]

I know I’m in the minority in thinking on this, but I just can’t see way overpaying for someone. Gray had never made more than $10M before, and now at age 34 he’s worth $25M/yr? Has he gotten that good? No. He’s just available. Monty was projected at 5/$105M before this all started, and they said he would only get a 5th yr, because that’s what it would take, and not, because he’s that good

 

It's the cost of doing business. If you don't play the game, you'll get passed by all the other teams.

[Bellhorn04]

I know I’m in the minority in thinking on this, but I just can’t see way overpaying for someone. Gray had never made more than $10M before, and now at age 34 he’s worth $25M/yr? Has he gotten that good? No. He’s just available. Monty was projected at 5/$105M before this all started, and they said he would only get a 5th yr, because that’s what it would take, and not, because he’s that good

 

Red, I think you're making too much of what Gray made before. Maybe that was just bad luck. Maybe this is the first time he had a big season in his contract year.

 

He has pitched 1571 MLB innings with a 3.47 ERA. He came second in this year's CYA voting. Are there really that many pitchers with better credentials? I think it'd be a pretty short list.

[mvp 78]

Not sure what is going on with TalkSox today, but I did not write post 4316.

[mvp 78]

Luzardo and Framber Valdez are both receiving lots of interest in trade talks at the moment. Is that where Crag is looking?