Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[Bellhorn04]

Lugo was really good last season. I'm not sure if he can replicate it this year. Unfortunately, I'm not sure he's that much of an improvement from Paxton IMO.

 

We're always finding the minuses in the pitchers who are available.

[Bellhorn04]

As of today, we still haven't had a truly exciting signing/acquisition since the days of Dombrowski. Unless you consider Story and Yoshida exciting. I might be able to get to "moderately exciting", at best.

[Bellhorn04]

Sonny Gray was too rich for our blood at a whopping $75 million. Much better waiting around. Following the Bloom template.

[Bellhorn04]

Gray pitched 184 innings last year and led the majors in FIP. Who needs guys like that? Who's got $75 mill to spend on a starting pitcher?

[Randy Red Sox]

How sad that we might lose lugo because Kansas city is going to out bid us

 

Let KC have Lugo. We need far better than him to compete in the AL East

[Old Red]

Gray pitched 184 innings last year and led the majors in FIP. Who needs guys like that? Who's got $75 mill to spend on a starting pitcher?

 

Gray at 34 had never been paid more than $10M/yr, and now he’s worth $25M/yr? Is he that much better, or is he now just available, and there is a need?

[jad]

He was worried about the tax implications of playing in CA and wanted to make sure he wouldn't completely screw over whatever team he played for.

 

i believe ALL players who 'play in California' are subject to tax, even players of other teams.

[Randy Red Sox]

Dodgers are paying Ohtani 2 million per year and then 680 million is deferred to the end of his contract. 99% certain Yamamoto will be heading there too.

[jad]

Yeah, the best employees tend to want to work for the highest paying and best-run organizations. Sad really. And completely unfair!!!!

[Bellhorn04]

Gray at 34 had never been paid more than $10M/yr, and now he’s worth $25M/yr? Is he that much better, or is he now just available, and there is a need?

 

Availability is an ability, Red.

[Bellhorn04]

Dodgers are paying Ohtani 2 million per year and then 680 million is deferred to the end of his contract. 99% certain Yamamoto will be heading there too.

 

It reduces the AAV to about $46 million a year.

 

The deferral will presumably also be helpful to Ohtani, because his off-field income is so high right now.

 

The accountants for the two sides probably had an orgy after this deal was made.

[moonslav59]

As of today, we still haven't had a truly exciting signing/acquisition since the days of Dombrowski. Unless you consider Story and Yoshida exciting. I might be able to get to "moderately exciting", at best.

 

Agreed.

 

Sale. Price. JD. Kimbrell. Nate.

 

All seem better and more flashy than Story & Yoshida.

[moonslav59]

I wonder how much this mega contract affects the trade value of some top players.

[dgalehouse]

I wonder if MLB has a problem with that amount of money being deferred .

[moonslav59]

I wonder if MLB has a problem with that amount of money being deferred .

 

I was thinking that, too.

 

They had an issue with that $14 year contract for someone. I forget who.

Edited December 12, 2023 by moonslav59

[vjcsmoke]

Sonny Gray was too rich for our blood at a whopping $75 million. Much better waiting around. Following the Bloom template.

 

Seriously. The dude was more interested in hoarding prospects than improving the major league roster.

 

Unfortunately he either just wasn't good at making those types of moves or never saw the necessity for them.

 

I just don't think he was really suited to run a big market team. In the end results matter and he's gone now. So good riddance for that.

[jad]

I wonder if MLB has a problem with that amount of money being deferred .

 

I don't understand why thy would. They still charge the lux tax more or less averaged over the years of th contract, right?(since teams are not allowed to front-load or back-load contracts to manipulate lux tax computation). Why would the league care?

[notin]

I don't understand why thy would. They still charge the lux tax more or less averaged over the years of th contract, right?(since teams are not allowed to front-load or back-load contracts to manipulate lux tax computation). Why would the league care?

 

I think it does reduce the AAV. It did with Sale…

[moonslav59]

I don't understand why thy would. They still charge the lux tax more or less averaged over the years of th contract, right?(since teams are not allowed to front-load or back-load contracts to manipulate lux tax computation). Why would the league care?

 

MLBTR reported....

 

The Padres were known to have made a spirited run at Aaron Judge between their pursuit of Trea Turner and eventual agreement with Xander Bogaerts. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested this week the Friars were prepared to put forth an offer around $400MM (Twitter link)...Jon Heyman of the New York Post added some clarity on the matter last night, reporting the Padres were preparing an offer to Judge that’d have reached or exceeded $400MM over a whopping 14-year term. However, Heyman further hears Major League Baseball would have been prepared to veto such an arrangement if the sides had agreed upon it. Of course, it proved to be a moot point once Judge decided he wanted to return to the only organization he’s ever known.

[Larry Cook]

I still hope the Sox go over 300 million to get Yamamoto

[moonslav59]

I still hope the Sox go over 300 million to get Yamamoto

 

I hope they go under $300M and get him.

[redsoxrules]

I can't see Yamamoto going under 300 Million from what we've seen from these crazy contracts lately

[moonslav59]

I can't see Yamamoto going under 300 Million from what we've seen from these crazy contracts lately

 

I don't either, but I hope for the least we can get him for.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Breslow should go all stealth and fly right past Yamamoto to Chiba City with a briefcase full of posting fees they can't refuse, and sign Roki Sasaki this week.

 

Imagine the uproar if the Sox snag Sasaki, three years younger than Yamamoto. Brez can probably lock him up for less than what NY, NY will overbid for Yama, too...

[Bellhorn04]

MLBTR reported....

 

The Padres were known to have made a spirited run at Aaron Judge between their pursuit of Trea Turner and eventual agreement with Xander Bogaerts. Bob Nightengale of USA Today suggested this week the Friars were prepared to put forth an offer around $400MM (Twitter link)...Jon Heyman of the New York Post added some clarity on the matter last night, reporting the Padres were preparing an offer to Judge that’d have reached or exceeded $400MM over a whopping 14-year term. However, Heyman further hears Major League Baseball would have been prepared to veto such an arrangement if the sides had agreed upon it. Of course, it proved to be a moot point once Judge decided he wanted to return to the only organization he’s ever known.

 

The Ohtani contract is officially a 10 year contract with payments over 20 years. The problem with the Padres contract offer was that it was a 14 year contract.

 

Kind of a fine line between the two, really.

[Bellhorn04]

Seriously. The dude was more interested in hoarding prospects than improving the major league roster.

 

Unfortunately he either just wasn't good at making those types of moves or never saw the necessity for them.

 

I just don't think he was really suited to run a big market team. In the end results matter and he's gone now. So good riddance for that.

 

But I'm already worried that Breslow is following the same approach. Waiting around for the right deal.

 

Maybe the Red Sox really are being run by a committee now.

[moonslav59]

The Ohtani contract is officially a 10 year contract with payments over 20 years. The problem with the Padres contract offer was that it was a 14 year contract.

 

Kind of a fine line between the two, really.

 

Yes, I know the difference, but I was answering an inquiry.

 

Also, the tactics amount to the same thing: skirting the AAV and tax system. Differments are fine, but his years of control is 10. IMO, the rule should be the AAV is $70M x 10.

[moonslav59]

But I'm already worried that Breslow is following the same approach. Waiting around for the right deal.

 

Maybe the Red Sox really are being run by a committee now.

 

We were never getting Ohtani or Nola.

Gray might have been a steal.

 

We don't know how active he is on pursuing Yamo, or even Snell and Monty. He might be going toe-to-toe.

 

For argument's sake, say the Yamo bidding ends at $360M/12, but JH set the limit at $350M (not likely, but follow along,) who's fault is it, if he signs elsewhere for more?

 

It can't be Breslow's.

 

Are we really going to bash JH for not going to $360 on a kid who has never played MLB?

 

There has to be a line, where it becomes insane. We all probably have a different number in mind. (Jad's is probably $3 billion.)

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I know the difference, but I was answering an inquiry.

 

Also, the tactics amount to the same thing: skirting the AAV and tax system. Differments are fine, but his years of control is 10. IMO, the rule should be the AAV is $70M x 10.

 

It was a big change when they brought in the present value calculation for AAV.

 

They're probably going to have to revisit it after this deal.

[Bellhorn04]

We were never getting Ohtani or Nola.

Gray might have been a steal.

 

We don't know how active he is on pursuing Yamo, or even Snell and Monty. He might be going toe-to-toe.

 

For argument's sake, say the Yamo bidding ends at $360M/12, but JH set the limit at $350M (not likely, but follow along,) who's fault is it, if he signs elsewhere for more?

 

It can't be Breslow's.

 

Are we really going to bash JH for not going to $360 on a kid who has never played MLB?

 

There has to be a line, where it becomes insane. We all probably have a different number in mind. (Jad's is probably $3 billion.)

 

As it stands right now:

-We passed on 2 reasonable deals with Gray and E-Rod.

-Now, supposedly, we're in the Moto auction, against all the other high rollers, which may not be settled until early January.

-Snell and Montgomery might wait until after Moto signs, hoping their price goes up.

 

I have a very uneasy feeling that we don't have a very good plan at all.