Red Sox: Off Season '23-'24

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

People often say soxprospects.com gets giddy over our prospects, but if you read their summations, I'm thinking they are conservative. Here are their summations on my top 5 prospects:

 

Mayer:

Potential above-average regular. Ceiling of a regular all-star. Has all the tools you look for in future everyday shortstop and the offensive upside to hit at the top of a contending team's lineup. Game comes easy to him. Potential for four above-average-or-better tools. Should be able to stick at shortstop and hit for a high average with power. Hit-over-power at the plate at this point, but both tools project as at least above-average. One of the best, if not the best, defenders in the 2021 draft. Complete profile on both sides of the ball gives him an all-star ceiling.

 

Anthony:

Very intriguing power prospect with the ceiling of an everyday outfielder. How his hit tool develops will determine how much of his power potential actualizes. Power is a carrying tool and is very impressive for his age. Should develop into a solid defender also, but what he does at the plate will be his calling card.

 

Bleis:

Potential everyday player who adds significant value in all facets of the game. High-risk prospect with a wide variance of outcomes. Checks all the boxes you look for in a prospect his age. If he reaches his potential, all five tools could grade at least as average. Raw power is his best current tool, but has the potential to hit for average as well. Has the highest upside of any Latin American prospect in the system. Scouts praised him as the best position player they saw in the FCL during the 2022 season.

 

Teel:

Potential defense-first catcher whose upside will be determined by how much he hits. Likely will develop into a hit-over-power type, and if he hits he has everyday potential. High baseball IQ and leader who should be able to handle the rigors of catching at the major league level. Described as having a very carefree personality. Great value pick at number 14 overall in 2023 that comes with a high floor due to his defensive profile.

 

Cespedes: (no summary, yet.)

Red Sox top signing in the January 2023 IFA class. Per reports, offense-first infielder considered by some scouts to be one of the best pure hitters in the January 2023 IFA class. Quick wrists, compact swing, solid-average raw power with the potential for more as he fills out. Good approach for his age. Excellent eye-hand coordination and bat control. Will expand the zone. Will start at shortstop but may need to move to second or third base eventually. Average arm, average speed. Solid makeup.

 

Damn soxprospects -- calling Teel carefree. Now all we need is Lars Anderson to teach him guitar lessons... if the ghost of Lou Gorman catches Teel playing "Box of Rain" on the team bus, he's going straight onto the trading block.

[moonslav59]

Damn soxprospects -- calling Teel carefree. Now all we need is Lars Anderson to teach him guitar lessons... if the ghost of Lou Gorman catches Teel playing "Box of Rain" on the team bus, he's going straight onto the trading block.

 

"Box of Rain" was his walk-up song on the farm!

 

(Just kidding)

[notin]

Damn soxprospects -- calling Teel carefree. Now all we need is Lars Anderson to teach him guitar lessons... if the ghost of Lou Gorman catches Teel playing "Box of Rain" on the team bus, he's going straight onto the trading block.

 

Would “Ripple” be better?

[Larry Cook]

Now that Hang’em Chaim has been put out to pasture, will we sign more international free agent pitchers

[moonslav59]

Now that Hang’em Chaim has been put out to pasture, will we sign more international free agent pitchers

 

More? Or, better?

 

I will say, some of his IFAs are looking good, now:

 

2023: #10 Cespedes, Arias and a few others.

2022: #14 Joh Garcia, Yuten, Asencio

2021: #3 Bleis, Paez, Ravelo, Lira

2020: #25 Monegro (COVID signing restrictions hurt.)

 

[moonslav59]

Here is the foundation for 2024 and beyond. I left the two SP'er slots open, since I can't see us not adding two.

Top line projected to see significant ML time in 2024.

Bottom line projected for future rosters or advancement in the minors.

 

Red= Bloom acquired

Black= DD/Theo acquired

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Houck

SP5 Pivetta/Sale/Crawford

SP8 Gambrell, Walter, Drohan, Hagenman, Wikelman

Perales, Monegro, Dobbins, ICoffey, Bastardo, Penrod, Song, E R-C, Rogers

 

RP1 Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Crawford/Sale/Pivetta

RP4 Sale/Pivetta/Crawford

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Winckowski

RP7 Schreiber

RP8 Bernardino/Joely/Murphy

RP9 Kelly, Mata, Robertson, Mills, Guerrero

 

C: Wong, McGuire, Scott

Teel, Hickey, RHern, Brannon, Joh Garcia

 

1B: Casas, Dalbec

Kavadas, Jordan

 

2B: Urias, Reyes, EValdez

Yorke, Bonaci, Ravelo, Arias

 

SS: Story, DHam

Mayer, Fitzy, Romero, Cespedes

 

3B: Devers, Meidroth

Zanetello, Paulino, C Coffey

 

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

Rosier, KCampbell, Anderson, Lugo

 

CF: Rafaela, Abreu

Anthony, Bleis

 

RF: Verdugo

Sikes, Castro, Asencio

 

DH: Yoshida (EValdez/Dalbec)

(Kavadas/ KCampbell)

 

 

 

[Tedballgame]

Pivetta has pitched himself into the 2024 rotation I think.

[Nick]

Bello

Pivetta

Crawford

Sale

Houck

 

Even if all five stay healthy and starts 25 games, it's a mediocre starting pitching staff.

 

Need top of line pitcher. Not just an inning eater.

[Nick]

I almost threw up when the color guy on NESN said Rafaela reminded him of Kike. A good defender at short, second and in the outfield.

 

He really got me excited about Rafaela. Not!

[moonslav59]

Bello

Pivetta

Crawford

Sale

Houck

 

Even if all five stay healthy and starts 25 games, it's a mediocre starting pitching staff.

 

Need top of line pitcher. Not just an inning eater.

 

It's still not good enough adding an ace. Even if we guess right and get the best one, we still need another SP'er, but I fear we won't see it that way. Injuries will force us to move some guys that do well in the pen into the starting role, where they will come up short, again. Plus tax the pen.

 

We need 2 solid SP'er who can eat innings and stay healthy.

[Randy Red Sox]

It's still not good enough adding an ace. Even if we guess right and get the best one, we still need another SP'er, but I fear we won't see it that way. Injuries will force us to move some guys that do well in the pen into the starting role, where they will come up short, again. Plus tax the pen.

 

We need 2 solid SP'er who can eat innings and stay healthy.

 

and pitch effectively

[moonslav59]

and pitch effectively

 

Indeed. I thought the word "solid" covered that.

[Bellhorn04]

Here is the foundation for 2024 and beyond. I left the two SP'er slots open, since I can't see us not adding two.

Top line projected to see significant ML time in 2024.

Bottom line projected for future rosters or advancement in the minors.

 

Red= Bloom acquired

Black= DD/Theo acquired

 

SP1 _____

SP2 _____

SP3 Bello

SP4 Houck

SP5 Pivetta/Sale/Crawford

SP8 Gambrell, Walter, Drohan, Hagenman, Wikelman

Perales, Monegro, Dobbins, ICoffey, Bastardo, Penrod, Song, E R-C, Rogers

 

RP1 Jansen

RP2 Martin

RP3 Crawford/Sale/Pivetta

RP4 Sale/Pivetta/Crawford

RP5 Whitlock

RP6 Winckowski

RP7 Schreiber

RP8 Bernardino/Joely/Murphy

RP9 Kelly, Mata, Robertson, Mills, Guerrero

 

C: Wong, McGuire, Scott

Teel, Hickey, RHern, Brannon, Joh Garcia

 

1B: Casas, Dalbec

Kavadas, Jordan

 

2B: Urias, Reyes, EValdez

Yorke, Bonaci, Ravelo, Arias

 

SS: Story, DHam

Mayer, Fitzy, Romero, Cespedes

 

3B: Devers, Meidroth

Zanetello, Paulino, C Coffey

 

LF: Duran, Refsnyder

Rosier, KCampbell, Anderson, Lugo

 

CF: Rafaela, Abreu

Anthony, Bleis

 

RF: Verdugo

Sikes, Castro, Asencio

 

DH: Yoshida (EValdez/Dalbec)

(Kavadas/ KCampbell)

 

 

 

 

To make the playoffs in 2024 we need:

 

a) 2 SP'ers

a bat

c) a bunch of things to go right

 

Pretty big asks.

[Larry Cook]

To make the playoffs in 2024 we need:

 

a) 2 SP'ers

a bat

c) a bunch of things to go right

 

Pretty big asks.

 

I think every year the biggest thing teams hope to go right is health. Obviously for us, that has been an issue.

 

Our offense was a top ten offense for most of the year. Our problem was pitching (describing it as a dumpster fire is actually being generous) and defense (I think we lead the American League in errors)

 

Pitching

 

SP1 - Snell

SP2 - Sale

SP3 - Bello

SP4 - Inamaga (Japan signing)

SP5 - Crawford

 

Long relief/spot starter - pivetta

Long relief/spot starter - houck

Closer - Jansen

8th inning - Martin

RP - Whitlock

RP - wincowski

RP - matsui (Japan signing)

RP - schreiber

 

Lineup:

CF - Rafeala (above average defense)

3B - devers (dumpster fire defense)

DH - yoshida (dumpster fire defense in lf)

1B - casas (dumpster fire defense)

SS - story (average defense)

RF - verdugo (average defense)

LF - Duran (dumpster fire defense)

2B - Urias (average defense)

C - wong (average defense)

 

Bench

C - mcquire (fringe defense)

OF - Refsynder (fringe defense)

U - Reyes - (fringe defense)

U - Valdez - (dumpster fire defense)

[sk7326]

To make the playoffs in 2024 we need:

 

a) 2 SP'ers

a bat

c) a bunch of things to go right

 

Pretty big asks.

 

I think the knockon effects of just a couple of solid #3 starter types would be pretty good - at least to get them in more of a wildcard race than this season.

[sk7326]

I think every year the biggest thing teams hope to go right is health. Obviously for us, that has been an issue.

 

Our offense was a top ten offense for most of the year. Our problem was pitching (describing it as a dumpster fire is actually being generous) and defense (I think we lead the American League in errors)

 

Pitching

 

SP1 - Snell

SP2 - Sale

SP3 - Bello

SP4 - Inamaga (Japan signing)

SP5 - Crawford

 

Long relief/spot starter - pivetta

Long relief/spot starter - houck

Closer - Jansen

8th inning - Martin

RP - Whitlock

RP - wincowski

RP - matsui (Japan signing)

RP - schreiber

 

Lineup:

CF - Rafeala (above average defense)

3B - devers (dumpster fire defense)

DH - yoshida (dumpster fire defense in lf)

1B - casas (dumpster fire defense)

SS - story (average defense)

RF - verdugo (average defense)

LF - Duran (dumpster fire defense)

2B - Urias (average defense)

C - wong (average defense)

 

Bench

C - mcquire (fringe defense)

OF - Refsynder (fringe defense)

U - Reyes - (fringe defense)

U - Valdez - (dumpster fire defense)

 

Rafaela is above average now, but elite is entirely within his grasp

Story is a plus defensive SS, not what he used to be but a plus player

Casas should get better at 1B ... he was terrible this year, but the road to "good enough" at 1B is not a long one

 

I think you'd flip flop verdugo and duran in this lineup - go where you need the range.

 

This team might not be the 2015 Royals defensively - but it should be good enough that we don't think about it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The batting order needs more righthanded pop, especially if it's losing Duvall's 20 HRs. But there aren't a lot of positions for a new guy... except second base?

 

BTV accepts Duran and Walter to SD for Ha-Seong Kim. On a team of superstar salaries, Kim, 27, leads Padres position players with 5.6 WAR, great glove, 17 homers, 36 steals, under contract for one more year at $8M then a mutual option.

 

The Sox need more fundamentally-sound ballplayers like Kim. Maybe SD would like an upgrade in CF over disappointing Trent Grisham's sub-.200 BA and .665 OPS (Duran's '23: .295, .828).

[Nick]

The batting order needs more righthanded pop, especially if it's losing Duvall's 20 HRs. But there aren't a lot of positions for a new guy... except second base?

 

BTV accepts Duran and Walter to SD for Ha-Seong Kim. On a team of superstar salaries, Kim, 27, leads Padres position players with 5.6 WAR, great glove, 17 homers, 36 steals, under contract for one more year at $8M then a mutual option.

 

The Sox need more fundamentally-sound ballplayers like Kim. Maybe SD would like an upgrade in CF over disappointing Trent Grisham's sub-.200 BA and .665 OPS (Duran's '23: .295, .828).

 

No No No.....are you freakin' serious?

 

You are going to trade 5 years of team control of Duran for a one year rental? You have no idea what the ceiling is for Duran. Sure, he may be a bust. But my guess is Cora likes his speed, his bat and probably thinks his defense will improve.

 

Let's be real. So in 2025, Ha-Seong Kim is no longer with the Sox. Meanwhile, Duran is going into his prime baseball years on the cheap in San Diego? No way, Jose.

 

Go sign some freakin' free agent pitchers. We've waited too long to have our young players dismantled.

Edited September 24, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

It's still not good enough adding an ace. Even if we guess right and get the best one, we still need another SP'er, but I fear we won't see it that way. Injuries will force us to move some guys that do well in the pen into the starting role, where they will come up short, again. Plus tax the pen.

 

We need 2 solid SP'er who can eat innings and stay healthy.

 

Well, there's Pivetta.

[Bellhorn04]

No No No.....are you freakin' serious?

 

You are going to trade 5 years of team control of Duran for a one year rental? You have no idea what the ceiling is for Duran. Sure, he may be a bust. But my guess is Cora likes his speed, his bat and probably thinks his defense will improve.

 

Let's be real. So in 2025, Ha-Seong Kim is no longer with the Sox. Meanwhile, Duran is going into his prime baseball years on the cheap in San Diego? No way, Jose.

 

Go sign some freakin' free agent pitchers. We've waited too long to have our young players dismantled.

 

Yeah, I'm with you. Keep Duran, upgrade the pitching by free agency.

[Bellhorn04]

Well, there's Pivetta.

 

We should be thankful we have him for another year. He's been great for quite a while now.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No No No.....are you freakin' serious?

 

You are going to trade 5 years of team control of Duran for a one year rental? You have no idea what the ceiling is for Duran. Sure, he may be a bust. But my guess is Cora likes his speed, his bat and probably thinks his defense will improve.

 

Let's be real. So in 2025, Ha-Seong Kim is no longer with the Sox. Meanwhile, Duran is going into his prime baseball years on the cheap in San Diego? No way, Jose.

 

Go sign some freakin' free agent pitchers. We've waited too long to have our young players dismantled.

 

Yup. Duran is not a good fielder. Red Sox need good fielders... to go along with all those new starting pitchers ownership is surely going to sign this winter.

 

And they're not making any trades for rentals that they won't immediately sign longterm. The Bloom Era is over (unless they're still BSing Red Sox Nation -- which is very possible).

[Bellhorn04]

Duran had a 2.4 fWAR in 102 games. He played very well - vastly improved from his 2022 self.

[sk7326]

We should be thankful we have him for another year. He's been great for quite a while now.

 

He is - although a completely different pitcher - valuable in some of the way that Tim Wakefield was in days of yore ... that he is so durable and reliable (even if the end results are meh) makes him valuable over a 162 game marathon.

 

The way I look at it, Crawford, Sale and Bello are clear rotation starters of some kind. They need at least 1-2 more of say Crawford's quality - but who can put >150 IP without much drama. Cora has had to macgyver so much this season with that pitching staff that you just run out of options, particularly when you don't have live arms coming out your ears organizationally.

[moonslav59]

To make the playoffs in 2024 we need:

 

a) 2 SP'ers

a bat

c) a bunch of things to go right

 

Pretty big asks.

 

Get two solid SP'ers and a RH'd bat like a 150 game Duvall, and we should just need the same amount of "things to go right" as all other playoff contenders.

 

We could certainly see regressions from guys like Duran, Casas, Reyes, Crawford, Wink and several others, but with so many younger and promising players, it's easy to expect some will improve like many do at their ages. Hell, even Devers is just entering peak prime and could have a monster season in '24. Of course, he could do worse, too.

 

Last winter, we had to replace Bogey, Nate, Wacha, JD, Strahm and Hill.

 

This winter, we have to replace JT, Duvall and Paxton, and if the budget can go over the tax line, I think the new GM will have an easier time filling our needs. I know, filling TOTR slots is never easy, but with a ton of budget space and a group of prospects that are coveted by other GMs.

 

I fully understand how a poor choice here or there can bring the whole house of cards down. We do need some things to go right, for sure, but so do 90% of all the other playoff contenders of 2024.

 

[moonslav59]

I think every year the biggest thing teams hope to go right is health. Obviously for us, that has been an issue.

 

Our offense was a top ten offense for most of the year. Our problem was pitching (describing it as a dumpster fire is actually being generous) and defense (I think we lead the American League in errors)

 

Pitching

 

SP1 - Snell

SP2 - Sale

SP3 - Bello

SP4 - Inamaga (Japan signing)

SP5 - Crawford

 

Long relief/spot starter - pivetta

Long relief/spot starter - houck

Closer - Jansen

8th inning - Martin

RP - Whitlock

RP - wincowski

RP - matsui (Japan signing)

RP - schreiber

 

Lineup:

CF - Rafeala (above average defense)

3B - devers (dumpster fire defense)

DH - yoshida (dumpster fire defense in lf)

1B - casas (dumpster fire defense)

SS - story (average defense)

RF - verdugo (average defense)

LF - Duran (dumpster fire defense)

2B - Urias (average defense)

C - wong (average defense)

 

Bench

C - mcquire (fringe defense)

OF - Refsynder (fringe defense)

U - Reyes - (fringe defense)

U - Valdez - (dumpster fire defense)

 

Story is not "average defense" by a long shot.

Duran should not be "dumpster fire," if we can keep him in LF.

[Bellhorn04]

I fully understand how a poor choice here or there can bring the whole house of cards down. We do need some things to go right, for sure, but so do 90% of all the other playoff contenders of 2024.

 

We're in worse shape than a lot of those contenders, because we're a sub-.500 team. We need to upgrade more than some other teams do.

[moonslav59]

We should be thankful we have him for another year. He's been great for quite a while now.

 

Pivetta has had several very good to great stretches with the Sox, some of them very long. He's been hideous in several shorter stretches, but it would be nice to see him put a full season together. I'd consider extending him, but I'm not sure what I'd offer: $33M/3, including 2024's arb year? Would he take it?

 

Good stretches:

His first 13 GS'd with the Sox: 3.49 ERA/3.29 FIP, including a 9 start stretch of 2.89/3.75.

 

He ended the 2021 season with pretty long poor stretch: 19 GS (1 RP):

5.00 ERA/4.91 FIP.

 

He started the 2022 very poorly for 5 starts, then he pitched like he was our ace:

First 5: 7.84/5.48

Next 11: 1.95/3.17

After 3 horrible starts he then went 9 GS:

3.80/4.23

(Last 28 of '22: 4.13/4.28)

 

We all saw how he started this season:

First 14 games (8GS): 5.65/5.14

Last 23 games (7GS): 3:40/3.52

 

Which Pivetta will we see in 2024? Chances are, both. I'm fine with planning on him as the #5 with Sale as the #6 and maybe Crawford or Houck as our #7, but we need to stop jerking these guys between the pen and rotation, so often. One guy, maybe. Two in a pinch, but this year we jerked 4 guys that have all had some enormous success in the pen.

 

Crawford:

21 GS 4.76 ERA

8 RP 1.66

(Career: 5.24 as SP in 34 GS and 3.35 as RP in 17 gms.)

 

Houck:

19 GS 4.92 ERA

0 RP N/A ERA

(4.09 career in 39 GS and 2.68 in 33 gms as RP)

 

Pivetta

15 GS 5.06 ERA

22 RP 3.07

(career 4.98 SP/ 4.19 RP)

Whitlock

10 GS 5.23

11 RP 5.50 (but some great numbers in relief in previous seasons)

Career: 4.76 in 19 GS and 2.69 in 79 gms as RP

 

Note:

Winckowski

0 GS N/A era

56 GM 2.96

 

[moonslav59]

We're in worse shape than a lot of those contenders, because we're a sub-.500 team. We need to upgrade more than some other teams do.

 

True, but I'm hopeful we have more winter spending money, and I still think having a lower number of key slots to fill or refill is a plus from previous winters and when compared to other contenders who may be losing more than the equivalent of JT, Duvall & Paxton.

 

We also have more and better prospects to trade or promote than most other contenders, but there are a handful of teams that look impassable, due to their current foundation, their budget and their strength of farm.

 

Again, I realize 2 of those 3 slots we need to fill are extremely difficult to fill, and the risk of swinging and missing is significant. It's not a sure thing we will win, if we do add 2 of the better SP'ers out there on the market (FA, trades and International.) They both have to work out well: pitch well and give us 28+ GS and 175+ IP. That is a lot to ask for. I get it.

 

IMO, we should add 3 solid SP, in hopes that 2 do very well, but we need some budget space for a RH'd bat and maybe a LH'd RP. I'm not sure JH will allow us to approach the second tax line, and that is likely what will be needed.

 

Approx $70M

$28M SP1

$18M SP2

$10M SP4

$12M RH'd bat

$2M LH RP (more if we non tender Urias and don't take Joely's option)

 

If we go with 2 better sp'ers:

$32M SP1

$24M SP2

$14M RH'd bat

$??? LH RP (Joely and or Urais savings?)

[moonslav59]

Other Teams Winter Issues:

 

Toronto:

FA: Chapman, Ryu, Belt, Kiermaier, Cimber

Last Arb Raise Pending: Vlad ($14.5 in '23), D Jansen ($3.5), TRichards ($1.5)

 

Texas: MPerez, JOdorizzi, AHedges, NLowe, BMiller, MGarver, AChapman, CStratton, IKennedy, RGrossman, WSmith, TJankowski, JLeclerc (option)

(About half their 26 man roster, but they will likely be big spenders)

 

Houston: Brantley, Stanek & Maton is not bad, but they added Verlander's salary, so I'm not sure how much they will spend, this winter. The Alvarex deal starts kicking in raises. Tucker will get a big 2nd arb raise.

 

Seattle: Teoscar Hern, TMurphy

The Luis Castillo extension kicks in ($13M raise). Marco Gonzalez gets a $6M raise and Ty France gets an arb raise.

 

Some of these teams might have easier paths to stay strong or get stronger for 2024, than the Sox, but I think a lot will have to do with winter spending budgets.

 

BAL and TBR cannot be caught up to, on paper in one winter.