A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[mvp 78]

Ding Ding Ding. We have a winner. Over managing?

 

I never understood resting a player after a multiple hit games. I wouldn't want to come out when I'm swinging a hot bat. Screw 'scheduled' day off.

 

Are you talking actual "rest days" or sitting a guy for a matchup?

[mvp 78]

Maybe we should look for better conditioned baseball players.

 

With the Braves, they have 4 of the best players in the game and they want them in the lineup as much as possible. With the Sox, I'm not sure any of the guys have really stood out from the pack until recently. Even then, are they in the conversation with the Braves players?

 

Acuna #1 fWAR

Olson #8 fWAR

Riley #23 fWAR

Albies #33 fWAR

 

Devers #60 fWAR

 

Casas and Duran should prove to be fulltime guys going forward, but I can see why they weren't at the beginning of this season. Both also have considerable defensive issues though Duran is improved.

 

Is Story ready for 162? I doubt it.

 

Masa? Maybe if the DH spot is open, but he had lower body injuries this year which held him back at times.

[moonslav59]

We've played 118 games. Unless a player has been hurt, I'd expect a few to have played 114-116 games.

 

I'm not sure who has missed games due to injuries, but here are our leaders:

111 Devers

107 Turner (was hurt, but DH'd a lot.)

105 Casas (struggled hitting, early on)

105 Dugo (only 6 games off vs LH'd SP'ers. We faced 33 of them.)

104 Yoshida (DH'd some)

[moonslav59]

With the Braves, they have 4 of the best players in the game and they want them in the lineup as much as possible. With the Sox, I'm not sure any of the guys have really stood out from the pack until recently. Even then, are they in the conversation with the Braves players?

 

Acuna #1 fWAR

Olson #8 fWAR

Riley #23 fWAR

Albies #33 fWAR

 

Devers #60 fWAR

 

Casas and Duran should prove to be fulltime guys going forward, but I can see why they weren't at the beginning of this season. Both also have considerable defensive issues though Duran is improved.

 

Is Story ready for 162? I doubt it.

 

Masa? Maybe if the DH spot is open, but he had lower body injuries this year which held him back at times.

 

We have a core of 4-5 players with OPS in the mid .800's for much of the year, and some of their replacements are 2not much lower, so your point is valid.

 

PAs Player OPS

323 Kike .599 (needed SS, could have played 2B more)

206 Arroyo .638 (needed a 2Bman)

112 Chang (needed a defensive SS0

101 EValdez .684 (needed a 2Bman)

97 Tapia .701 is maybe one guy who played more than he should have, but he did okay.

34 HDHam .472 (were throwing anything at the SS wall.)

 

 

 

 

 

[Bellhorn04]

I'm okay with resting someone, who seems tired, is facing the wrong-handed pitcher or one he has a history of struggles against, but I agree- no more "scheduled days off."

 

I'm curious, if the players like or want these days off.

 

I have no real opinion on it one way or the other. But if Bloom and Cora think it's the right way to go, it's their call and I'm not going to get upset about it.

[mvp 78]

2024:

 

C Wong/McGuire (no 162's)

1B Casas should go 162, but he missed time in '21 and '22 due to injury. I'd still sit him here and there.

2B No clear 162 player

SS Story should go 162, but has only played over 150 games once

3B Devers should go 162, but only if you can give him the DH spot (has done 156 twice)

LF Masa should go 162, but had soft tissue injuries this year, probably can't do it

CF Duran should go 162 and probably is the only guy that could do it

RF Verdugo could go 162, but I think having a guy like Refsnyder fill in for LHP is fine here

[mvp 78]

I have no real opinion on it one way or the other. But if Bloom and Cora think it's the right way to go, it's their call and I'm not going to get upset about it.

 

Boo.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We've played 118 games. Unless a player has been hurt, I'd expect a few to have played 114-116 games.

 

I'm not sure who has missed games due to injuries, but here are our leaders:

111 Devers

107 Turner (was hurt, but DH'd a lot.)

105 Casas (struggled hitting, early on)

105 Dugo (only 6 games off vs LH'd SP'ers. We faced 33 of them.)

104 Yoshida (DH'd some)

 

DH should make it easier to bat in many more games for certain guys.

 

Jim Rice played 163 in '78, when I assumed he was mostly the DH. But upon checking, while he was the most regular DH, it was only in 49 games. He played 114 in the OF.

 

Yaz? His position on bb-ref that year is "UT": 71 OF, 50 1B, 27 DH.

 

Nope, bb-ref lists the "regular" DH for the infamous 99-win '78 Red Sox as... Bob Bailey, in 43 games. For some reason, Beetle -- who hit .191 -- didn't make it onto my Red Sox nickname painter cap.

[Dipre]

Maybe we should look for better conditioned baseball players.

 

Sometimes it's not even a matter of conditioning. It's simply physiology.

[moonslav59]

RF Verdugo could go 162, but I think having a guy like Refsnyder fill in for LHP is fine here

 

Except that is not happening.

 

85 games with RH's SP

74 GS Verdugo

9 GS Ref

 

33 games with LH'd SP'er

27 GS Verdugo

31 GS Refsnyder

 

Shouldn't Ref have 32-33 starts when a lefty starts?

 

Shouldn't Verdugo have 11 more starts vs RHPs and maybe the same or less vs LHPs?

 

(Duran also has 9 GS vs LHPs.)

[mvp 78]

Except that is not happening.

 

85 games with RH's SP

74 GS Verdugo

9 GS Ref

 

33 games with LH'd SP'er

27 GS Verdugo

31 GS Refsnyder

 

Shouldn't Ref have 32-33 starts when a lefty starts?

 

Shouldn't Verdugo have 11 more starts vs RHPs and maybe the same or less vs LHPs?

 

(Duran also has 9 GS vs LHPs.)

 

I'm not saying that's what is happening now, I'm saying that's what I'd do next year if they were trying to get close to fulltime (162) for some players. Duran would no longer lose playing time to Ref, Verdugo would.

[Maxbialystock]

Boo.

 

Boo yourself. I'll be honest and say I love the stats on the Braves players' games played. Also the question, "Why do our guys need a day off all the time?"

 

Clearly, playing every dadgum day works for the Braves. So it's fair to ask, couldn't that work for the Sox as well?

 

And my answer is that I believe that most MLB players could use extra days off because the regular season is such a grind--6 games a week for 6 months.

 

But, more than that, I believe the manager should make that judgment. Bellhorn is absolutely right.

 

Cora believes not only in resting guys, but in using his freaking bench. And to me it's hard to argue that his system has failed. The 2018 Sox not only had Boston Red Sox best regular season ever (in 123 seasons)--while regular resting players, even Mookie freaking Betts--they then beat the 100 win Yankees, 3 games to 1, in the ALDS, the 103 win Astros, 4 games to 1, in the ALCS, and the 92 win Dodgers, 4 games to 1, in the WS.

 

And here are the regular season games played by those lazy, no good, badly managed 2018 Sox: JDM (DH), 150; Beni 148; JBJ 144; Betts 136; Bogey 136; Nunez 127; Moreland 124; Devers 121; Holt 109.

 

Three years later, 2021, under a new GM/VP (Bloom) and an owner who now wanted nothing to do with high priced pitching, Cora took the 92 wins Sox (who literally did not have a closer for the 2021 postseason) to the ALCS after beating the 92 wins Yankees in the wild card and the 100 wins Rays in the ALDS (3 games to 1) before losing to the 95 wins Astros in the ALCS (4 games to 2).

 

Last year the hard core Braves won 101 games in the regular season but couldn't get past the presumably soft core Phillies in the NLDS.

 

My point is not that the Cora's right and the Braves are wrong, but that more than one system can work, especially if the players have bought into that system.

 

And moonslav for once is full of it because he has provided no stats, just his opinion on resting players. When he's sure he's right, he piles on the stats. This time, nada.

[mvp 78]

Boo yourself.

 

Pass.

[moonslav59]

I'm not saying that's what is happening now, I'm saying that's what I'd do next year if they were trying to get close to fulltime (162) for some players. Duran would no longer lose playing time to Ref, Verdugo would.

 

I agree but wonder why it is not happening, now. It makes me tink it won't happen, next year.

 

I'm not convinced Duran will continue to hit lefties, okay, but he deserves a long look. Dugo has proven, over and over, he is not good vs lefties.

 

Ref should never sit vs lefties. Maybe he should never start vs righties, unless injuries force him to.

 

2023:

31 GS v L out of 33

9 GS v R out of 85

 

2022:

15 v L out of 36

20 v R out of 126

 

Ref should be closer to 100% vs L and 0% v R. Dugo should never start over ref v L, including this year or going forward, this year.

 

[notin]

DH should make it easier to bat in many more games for certain guys.

 

Jim Rice played 163 in '78, when I assumed he was mostly the DH. But upon checking, while he was the most regular DH, it was only in 49 games. He played 114 in the OF.

 

Yaz? His position on bb-ref that year is "UT": 71 OF, 50 1B, 27 DH.

 

Nope, bb-ref lists the "regular" DH for the infamous 99-win '78 Red Sox as... Bob Bailey, in 43 games. For some reason, Beetle -- who hit .191 -- didn't make it onto my Red Sox nickname painter cap.

 

 

Bailey changed to meaning of DH to “Doesn’t Hit”…

[moonslav59]

Next 4 Days

MON

SEA @ KCR

HOU @ MIA

NYY @ ATL

LAA @ TEX

TBR @ SFG

BAL @ SDP

 

TUE

BOS @ WSH

SEA @ KCR

PHI @ TOR

HOU @ MIA

NYY @ ATL

LAA @ TEX

TBR @ SFG

BAL @ SDP

 

WED

BOS @ WSH

SEA @ KCR

PHI @ TOR

HOU @ MIA

NYY @ ATL

LAA @ TEX

TBR @ SFG

BAL @ SDP

 

THU

BOS @ WSH

SEA @ KCR

 

Then, the fun begins!

 

 

[notin]

Go Royals, Phillies, Marlins and of course Red Sox!

[moonslav59]

Go Royals, Phillies, Marlins and of course Red Sox!

 

...and Braves. Let's put the Yanks way back in the rear view!

 

Also, we can catch the shaken up Rays, too. Maybe we need to catch TEX not HOU.

 

[moonslav59]

Looks like Joely may be shut down for the season, but I doubt he could come back and do much better than Bernardino.

 

That leaves Houck's pending return and demotion of Llovera to bring the club to the closest level of health than I can ever remember. We've had our share of injuries, over the season, and one could argue Kelly or Joely might have been a 26 man roster player, but they are borderline.

 

I'm not trying to jinx the team, not that I believe in that anyway, but some felt we needed "everything to go right," and maybe we will see that happen over the next 7 weeks.

 

I had a few moments, this season, where my hopes almost vanished, but unlike last year, I kept hope alive. We still need to see which Houck returns, or if Sale and Whitlock can return to the levels they have shown in the past and stay there for a couple months and if the recent struggles by Bello & Paxton are just blips. Our bats have cooled over the last week or two, but I have to think we snap out of this funk.

 

Here's how I see the 26 man shaping up:

 

1. Duran .842 (.349 OBP & 23 SB)

2. Turner .842 (the MAN!)

3. Devers .847 (leads the tea in OPS)

4. Story .979 (small sample size)

5. Yoshida .824 (.347 OBP)

6. Casas .836 (.354 OBP)

7. Duvall .846 (2nd best SLG at .534)/Dugo .760 (.340 OBP)/Refsnyder .703 (.873 v L)

8. Reyes .759 (.355 OBP)/ Urias .526 (hopefully on the rise)

9. Wong .689/ McGuire .690

 

Rotation

3.36 Paxton (2.95 last 4 starts)

3.81 Bello (needs to turn it around)

4.52 Sale (2.43 last 7 starts/ 2.96 last 9)

4.16 Pivetta (2.67 since May 17th)

5.05 Houck (returns, soon)

 

3.80 Crawford (3.24 after first game)

5.03 Whitlock (hopefully healthy and in the groove)

2.94 Murphy (surprise of 2023's staff?)

 

2.97 Jansen (what we hoped for.)

1.37 Martin (more than what we hoped for)

2.86 Wink (Maybe a bigger surprise than Murphy and Craford)

2.77 Bernardino (The gem in the rough)

3.20 Schreiber (not sure he's fully back in form)

 

 

 

[Nick]

Looks like Joely may be shut down for the season, but I doubt he could come back and do much better than Bernardino.

 

That leaves Houck's pending return and demotion of Llovera to bring the club to the closest level of health than I can ever remember. We've had our share of injuries, over the season, and one could argue Kelly or Joely might have been a 26 man roster player, but they are borderline.

 

I'm not trying to jinx the team, not that I believe in that anyway, but some felt we needed "everything to go right," and maybe we will see that happen over the next 7 weeks.

 

I had a few moments, this season, where my hopes almost vanished, but unlike last year, I kept hope alive. We still need to see which Houck returns, or if Sale and Whitlock can return to the levels they have shown in the past and stay there for a couple months and if the recent struggles by Bello & Paxton are just blips. Our bats have cooled over the last week or two, but I have to think we snap out of this funk.

 

Here's how I see the 26 man shaping up:

 

1. Duran .842 (.349 OBP & 23 SB)

2. Turner .842 (the MAN!)

3. Devers .847 (leads the tea in OPS)

4. Story .979 (small sample size)

5. Yoshida .824 (.347 OBP)

6. Casas .836 (.354 OBP)

7. Duvall .846 (2nd best SLG at .534)/Dugo .760 (.340 OBP)/Refsnyder .703 (.873 v L)

8. Reyes .759 (.355 OBP)/ Urias .526 (hopefully on the rise)

9. Wong .689/ McGuire .690

 

Rotation

3.36 Paxton (2.95 last 4 starts)

3.81 Bello (needs to turn it around)

4.52 Sale (2.43 last 7 starts/ 2.96 last 9)

4.16 Pivetta (2.67 since May 17th)

5.05 Houck (returns, soon)

 

3.80 Crawford (3.24 after first game)

5.03 Whitlock (hopefully healthy and in the groove)

2.94 Murphy (surprise of 2023's staff?)

 

2.97 Jansen (what we hoped for.)

1.37 Martin (more than what we hoped for)

2.86 Wink (Maybe a bigger surprise than Murphy and Craford)

2.77 Bernardino (The gem in the rough)

3.20 Schreiber (not sure he's fully back in form)

 

 

 

 

This has been a good year from my perspective with one or two exceptions.

 

Emergence of Duran Casas Wong and Yoshida gets us closer to the assembling the core group and chasing titles.

 

I am not 100% sold on Verdugo but Rafaela waits in the wings as a replacement in the OF.

 

Our bullpen looks to be in capable hands for 2024 and hopefully some of our young guns will replace Martin and Jansen in 2025.

 

Bello and Crawford appears to be keepers. Who knows what Pivetta will become.

 

Tons of good news. Last 2 years will be quickly forgotten with a title in a near future.

[Nick]

Yanks are down 2-8 vs Atlanta. Miami winning 4-1 over Houston.

 

Seattle is losing 0-3. LAA is losing 0-5.

 

All good news for the Sox.

Edited August 15, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

This has been a good year from my perspective with one or two exceptions.

 

Emergence of Duran Casas Wong and Yoshida gets us closer to the assembling the core group and chasing titles.

 

I am not 100% sold on Verdugo but Rafaela waits in the wings as a replacement in the OF.

 

Our bullpen looks to be in capable hands for 2024 and hopefully some of our young guns will replace Martin and Jansen in 2025.

 

Bello and Crawford appears to be keepers. Who knows what Pivetta will become.

 

Tons of good news. Last 2 years will be quickly forgotten with a title in a near future.

 

Even a strong run at a title, while maintaining a positive long term outlook would go a long way towards restoring fan trust.

[moonslav59]

This has been a good year from my perspective with one or two exceptions.

 

Emergence of Duran Casas Wong and Yoshida gets us closer to the assembling the core group and chasing titles.

 

I am not 100% sold on Verdugo but Rafaela waits in the wings as a replacement in the OF.

 

Our bullpen looks to be in capable hands for 2024 and hopefully some of our young guns will replace Martin and Jansen in 2025.

 

Bello and Crawford appears to be keepers. Who knows what Pivetta will become.

 

Tons of good news. Last 2 years will be quickly forgotten with a title in a near future.

 

Exceeding expectations, so far:

Duran, Bello, Casas, Crawford, Winckowski, Paxton, Sale (just starting more than 1 game,) Wong, Reyes, Paxton, Yoshida, Turner (although I expected something like this,) Martin, Murphy and Bernardino.

 

Meeting expectations (or close): Jansen, McGuire, Dugo, Arroyo & Chang (gone) and Duvall & Schreiber (despite injuries)

 

Not meeting expectations, so far: Devers, Whitlock, Houck, Kluber, Kike (gone)

[moonslav59]

MIA best HOU.

ATL up 11-2 on fading Yanks.

KCR was no-hitting SEA until a single with 2 outs in the 7th. KC up 5-0.

 

TEX up 5-0 on LAA

BAL and TBR play late on the left coast.

[Duran Is The Man]

MIA best HOU.

ATL up 11-2 on fading Yanks.

KCR was no-hitting SEA until a single with 2 outs in the 7th. KC up 5-0.

 

TEX up 5-0 on LAA

BAL and TBR play late on the left coast.

 

don't look now....Royals about to blow their game with the M's. what was a 5-0 lead is now tied 5-5 top of the ninth right.

[moonslav59]

don't look now....Royals about to blow their game with the M's. what was a 5-0 lead is now tied 5-5 top of the ninth right.

 

I'm watching. SEA up 6-5, KCR now at bat in bottom of 9th.

[moonslav59]

SEA trying to hand it back, now.

[moonslav59]

Sac Fly ties it 6-6.

 

Man on 3rd with 1 out!

[moonslav59]

Sac Fly ties it 6-6.

 

Man on 3rd with 1 out!

 

ROYALS Win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Duran Is The Man]

ROYALS Win!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

crazy game!