A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

If it was possible to be more excited about a news item, I would have to lie down to stop the heart from leaping from my chest. I'm happy Arroyo is healthy enough to play and will only be happier when he moves on to another team .

 

Too funny.

[vegasbob]

The thrill of who wins the short end platoon role with EValdez does not excite you?

 

LOL.

 

Right now, Enmanuel is my pride and joy. After all , with practice, reps and hard work most players can become better fielders ( See Duran, J.) . Valdez is a more natural hitter , more in the Devers mode ( See ball/hit ball) . The guys from the DR do love to swing the bat, and it has rewarded them very nicely over the years.

[mvp 78]

If it was possible to be more excited about a news item, I would have to lie down to stop the heart from leaping from my chest. I'm happy Arroyo is healthy enough to play and will only be happier when he moves on to another team .

 

I wouldn't worry too much about Arroyo. He makes a good platoon partner for Valdez and spends too much time on the IL anyway.

[mvp 78]

Who will make it to SS in Fenway for the Sox first, Mayer of Mondesi, lol

 

I was hopeful that Mayer was going to rocket through the system, but he started off a little slow this year. He's probably not going to get to BOS until 2024.

[moonslav59]

I don't much doubt that Casas can only improve. His top 4% walk ratio is belied by the fact that his .312 OBP is below MLB average of.320 . He appears to have good plate discipline and patience but the reality is he doesn't swing or make hard contact often enough at this stage of his career. Too many called 3rd strikes, and foul balls, just missing some center cuts. Not saying he can't play, just that he needs more development , as Duran did ( or may still ), Dugo and now Wong . The question is how many development projects can you carry at the MLB level simultaneously and win ? Or do they become, with Devers, the core of a team that wins consistently for the next 5 years.

 

The real concern is that Casas doesn't join the list of Red Sox prospect flameouts , the most recent of which remains Dalbec, but the list is significant over the past 10 years.

 

Dalbec did flameout, but he was only a top 2-3 prospect for about a day.

 

Dalbec raised expectations quickly after his 23 game stint in 2020 and a late hot streak in 2020, then he "flamed" badly.

 

His numbers per 650 PAs:

 

2020-2021

.244 40 120 (.819 OPS)

 

2022-2023

.213 21 85 (.647 OPS)

 

If someone said a player's first 900 PASs in MLB would produce this, you might not think he was all that bad...

 

.232 45 133 (.751)

 

per 650

.232 32 90

 

We know better. I doubt he gets another look with the Sox, unless someone (Turner/Casas) gets hurt or Casas flames out.

 

 

[Dipre]

I don't much doubt that Casas can only improve. His top 4% walk ratio is belied by the fact that his .312 OBP is below MLB average of.320 . He appears to have good plate discipline and patience but the reality is he doesn't swing or make hard contact often enough at this stage of his career. Too many called 3rd strikes, and foul balls, just missing some center cuts. Not saying he can't play, just that he needs more development , as Duran did ( or may still ), Dugo and now Wong . The question is how many development projects can you carry at the MLB level simultaneously and win ? Or do they become, with Devers, the core of a team that wins consistently for the next 5 years.

 

The real concern is that Casas doesn't join the list of Red Sox prospect flameouts , the most recent of which remains Dalbec, but the list is significant over the past 10 years.

 

He has one of the hardest exit velos in the league, and an above average barrel rate but he doesn't make a lot of hard contact.

 

Alrighty then.

[Bellhorn04]

He has one of the hardest exit velos in the league, and an above average barrel rate but he doesn't make a lot of hard contact.

 

Alrighty then.

 

His SLG is only .354 though. Only 4 doubles.

[mvp 78]

He has one of the hardest exit velos in the league, and an above average barrel rate but he doesn't make a lot of hard contact.

 

Alrighty then.

 

Barrel % 84th percentile

Av Exit Velo 73rd percentile

Max Exit Velo 73red percentile

 

His xWOBA the past 100 PA's has been pretty good. His bad April is dragging down his overall numbers.

 

797 May OPS

[moonslav59]

His SLG is only .354 though. Only 4 doubles.

 

His .210 BAbip might indicate just plain ole bad luck, and as a rookie, he's not getting many close balls & strike calls, so maybe there is some major room for improvement.

 

We could use it real soon, like starting tonight!

[mvp 78]

@PeteAbe

In other rehab news, Yu Chang is batting second and DH'ing for Portland tonight.

[moonslav59]

@PeteAbe

In other rehab news, Yu Chang is batting second and DH'ing for Portland tonight.

 

I'm really not sure Arroyo or Chang will outplay what we've gotten from Valdez & Reyes, but Chang's defense at SS will be a plus.[

 

I think the lefty, Valdez stays on the 26 for a while.

[Dipre]

His SLG is only .354 though. Only 4 doubles.

 

Exactly why you look at underlying stats, and not just outcomes.

[mvp 78]

I'm really not sure Arroyo or Chang will outplay what we've gotten from Valdez & Reyes, but Chang's defense at SS will be a plus.[

 

I think the lefty, Valdez stays on the 26 for a while.

 

Reyes 0.0 fWAR

Valdez 0.1 fWAR (-3 DRS, -4 OAA BRUTAL)

Chang 0.2 fWAR

[Nick]

Interesting article on MassLive about how the Sox dodged a bullett on Jose Abreau, who spurned Sox offer and signed with the Astros for close to $60M over 3 years.

 

Now it's possible he will turn things around but that signing may have been Bllom' s last failure with the Sox had the deal consummated.

 

Bloom scares me sometimes.

Edited May 26, 2023 by Nick

[Nick]

Any interest in picking up E Rod if he opts out with the Tigers?

 

He's having a good year and I bet he opts out to recoup some of the money he lost last year.

[moonslav59]

Any interest in picking up E Rod if he opts out with the Tigers?

 

He's having a good year and I bet he opts out to recoup some of the money he lost last year.

 

I think we will kick the tires on any body better than our 5 starter, which is just about anybody being shopped

[Nick]

I think we will kick the tires on any body better than our 5 starter, which is just about anybody being shopped

 

I think we are committed to Bello Whit and Houck.

 

We are not giving up high level prospects to get someone who has higher ceiling than the three.

 

It would cost too much.

[Nick]

I bet our highest trade chip is Bello right now.

 

5 more years of team control?

[dannycater]

vegasbob, I feel for you. You got cheated a bit for your entertainment value

[notin]

I was hopeful that Mayer was going to rocket through the system, but he started off a little slow this year. He's probably not going to get to BOS until 2024.

 

Still might be before Mondesi…

[notin]

I bet our highest trade chip is Bello right now.

 

5 more years of team control?

 

Per BTV, they are

1. Mayer

2. Whitlock

3. Bello

4. Bleis

5. Casas

[vegasbob]

Per BTV, they are

1. Mayer

2. Whitlock

3. Bello

4. Bleis

5. Casas

 

If I had to part with one to make a useful deal ( not a half-season rental) it would be Bleis who is a couple or three years out, if he makes it. Maybe limited upside as a power hitting outfielder. Bleier and Bleis could get us a stronger reliever .

 

The interesting trade asset is Whitlock. If , by trade deadline, he is not one of our 5 starters, but a multi-inning reliever , his long term utilization by the Sox is diminished . However, he is under club control through 2026, plus 2 more club options by his extended, cheap contract, so I do not think Garrett is going anywhere soon.

[moonslav59]

I bet our highest trade chip is Bello right now.

 

5 more years of team control?

 

BTV says Mayer but I agree.

[notin]

If I had to part with one to make a useful deal ( not a half-season rental) it would be Bleis who is a couple or three years out, if he makes it. Maybe limited upside as a power hitting outfielder. Bleier and Bleis could get us a stronger reliever .

 

The interesting trade asset is Whitlock. If , by trade deadline, he is not one of our 5 starters, but a multi-inning reliever , his long term utilization by the Sox is diminished . However, he is under club control through 2026, plus 2 more club options by his extended, cheap contract, so I do not think Garrett is going anywhere soon.

 

Number 6 was Ceddane Rafaela, who suddenly dropped down a little bit on the Need to Have list once Duran learned how to play baseball.

 

If the Sox make a big move, Rafaela is probably most likely to go…

[Old Red]

Duvall starts rehab in Worcester on Tuesday.

[vegasbob]

Number 6 was Ceddane Rafaela, who suddenly dropped down a little bit on the Need to Have list once Duran learned how to play baseball.

 

If the Sox make a big move, Rafaela is probably most likely to go…

 

Having come to appreciate Duran's major turnaround, his current slump is troubling. He needs to figure it out, get lucky and breakthrough or , mentally, he may revert to the jerk of '22. Sincerely hope not because Duvall is not necessarily the answer on a 1 year contract with a sore wrist.

[Larry Cook]

Having come to appreciate Duran's major turnaround, his current slump is troubling. He needs to figure it out, get lucky and breakthrough or , mentally, he may revert to the jerk of '22. Sincerely hope not because Duvall is not necessarily the answer on a 1 year contract with a sore wrist.

 

Baseball is a game of adjustments. Clearly Duran has not responded well to the change in how they are pitching him

[moonslav59]

With younger players, it is often about adjusting and then adjusting to the new adjustments pitchers have tried on you, but sometime a bad stretch can just be a slump- not related to any lack of adjustment to what pitchers are doing differently, but rather just falling out of your groove or losing your "mojo."

 

Just my take.

[vegasbob]

Dugo comes alive and getting more runs in. Amazing that 5 guys have multiple hits who could not find their way to Angels Stadium

[vegasbob]

O'B had to mention that Ketel Marte's streak of 23 consecutive games reaching base was on the line. 2 seconds later Marte grounds a single to RF. O'B STFU