A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

If, and when Story does come back this season it will be at SS according to Cora.

 

They really want to test the medical condition of that arm, I guess.

[Maxbialystock]

We have veterans in Devers, Yoshida, Turner, Duvall (I know he's hurt), Story, Verdugo, Kike and Story (also hurt). It's a veteran group.

 

We have a young catcher who appears to be ready defensively in the majors. Anything he gives us offensively is a big plus. His back up possess some offense.

 

We have enough offense to carry Casas. Or should I say we should what with all the veterans we have on our roster.

 

What would be an alternative? Send him back down to AAA? To do what? Isn't it better at this stage for Casas to be surrounded by plethora of baseball people to work on his hitting, mechanically and approach wise?

 

We have the ability to shield him somewhat by playing Turner against lefties and move Yoshida as DH. We have Refsnyder and Tapia to fill in when needed. Plus Duvall is set to come back. Maybe he spends his first week just as a DH.

 

Further down the road, Story will come back. This will allow Kike to play some outfield.

 

Again, we can protect Casas if need be......

 

He's our future. We base our decisions here on board by the last series or last twenty at bats.

 

I'm perfectly happy to have Casas on our roster of 26.

 

We have control of his baseball life for five plus years. He has more upside than anyone other than Devers, positionally.

 

I'm not a big Casas fan, mostly because of his mannerisms and his weight. But I completely agree the Sox are supportive of him and should be.

[Maxbialystock]

My top 10 players who have not met their ceiling.

 

1 Devers

2 Bello

3 Casas

4 Houck

5 Whitlock

6 Duran

7 Wong

8 Valdez

9 Verdugo

10 Yoshida

 

"not met their ceiling" is almost meaningless. I respect your posts and knowledge, but not your grasp of baseball metaphors.

[Maxbialystock]

If, and when Story does come back this season it will be at SS according to Cora.

 

Thanks, I did not know Cora said that. Also agree on "if and when." Waiting for Story is like waiting for Godot.

[Maxbialystock]

This team is better this year because they are not swing first take walk second. Their approach is way better than last year.

 

Last year the Sox averaged 8.5 K's per game. This year it's 7.8.

 

BB's last year were 7.7 per game. This year 3.2

Edited May 27, 2023 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Last year the Sox averaged 8.5 K's per game. This year it's 7.8.

 

BB's last year were 7.7 per game. This year 3.2

 

The drop in walks is frightening, but being more aggressive has proven to be helpful, too. Maybe we can find a way to do both very well.

[Duran Is The Man]

Last year the Sox averaged 8.5 K's per game. This year it's 7.8.

 

BB's last year were 7.7 per game. This year 3.2

 

 

i don't think that's right. looks like the Sox walked 478 times last year. over 162 games, that's 2.95.

[dgalehouse]

Last year the Sox averaged 8.5 K's per game. This year it's 7.8.

 

BB's last year were 7.7 per game. This year 3.2

 

Almost eight walks per game last year ? I don't think so.

[notin]

Was that not a good pitcher the Red Sox faced last night? Have the Red Sox faced any good pitching on this trip. Wacha may be the best. Snell used to be good, and Anderson was good last year, and that’s about it. I’m just saying I’m just not getting all giddy over last night against a real Bad pitcher. If others want to fine. I have to see more.

 

Joe Musgrove isn’t good? He had one bad outing this year…

[moonslav59]

Joe Musgrove isn’t good? He had one bad outing this year…

 

There is always some reason we win other than us just being the better team.

[notin]

There is always some reason we win other than us just being the better team.

 

This team can’t be good!! They never replaced Renfroe’s RBIs!!!

[Dipre]

I bet none of y'all can hit any ML pitchers. Hitting MLB pitching is hard, period. Give credit where credit is due.

[Maxbialystock]

i don't think that's right. looks like the Sox walked 478 times last year. over 162 games, that's 2.95.

 

I used the same exact numbers, 478 and 162, on a calculator--and got 7.7. Obviously, I was wrong.

[Maxbialystock]

Almost eight walks per game last year ? I don't think so.

 

Well, neither do I.

[Bellhorn04]

I bet none of y'all can hit any ML pitchers. Hitting MLB pitching is hard, period. Give credit where credit is due.

 

The only kind of major league pitcher I ever wanted to take some swings against was a knuckleballer like Wakefield. I realize he would make me look like an idiot, but at least I would have a chance of hitting the ball if I got really lucky.

[moonslav59]

The only kind of major league pitcher I ever wanted to take some swings against was a knuckleballer like Wakefield. I realize he would make me look like an idiot, but at least I would have a chance of hitting the ball if I got really lucky.

 

Catchers couldn't even catch the knuckleball. How could you hit it?

[Duran Is The Man]

I used the same exact numbers, 478 and 162, on a calculator--and got 7.7. Obviously, I was wrong.

 

478 divided by 62 is 7.7. you just forgot to hit the 1.

[moonslav59]

wRC+ Sox Leaders from 2022-2023

180+ PAs

139 Refsnyder

134 Bogey

132 Devers

126 Yoshida

119 McGuire

119 JD M

112 Turner

110 Vazquez

108 Verdugo

102 Casas

100 Story

[notin]

The only kind of major league pitcher I ever wanted to take some swings against was a knuckleballer like Wakefield. I realize he would make me look like an idiot, but at least I would have a chance of hitting the ball if I got really lucky.

 

You might think knuckleballers throw soft, but they throw 60-65 mph, which is still probably harder than any us can throw. And then the ball moving unpredictably to boot?

 

Try catching a knuckleball first, and you’ll see how weird and scary just doing that is. The ball just darts anywhere, seemingly freezes in place for a fraction of a second, then darts off in another random direction. All the time moving faster than you realize…

[moonslav59]

You might think knuckleballers throw soft, but they throw 60-65 mph, which is still probably harder than any us can throw. And then the ball moving unpredictably to boot?

 

Try catching a knuckleball first, and you’ll see how weird and scary just doing that is. The ball just darts anywhere, seemingly freezes in place for a fraction of a second, then darts off in another random direction. All the time moving faster than you realize…

 

He even hit the mid 70's from time to time.

[moonslav59]

WC Race

 

+3.0 BAL

+0.5 HOU

+0.0 NYY

 

-2.0 BOS

-2.0 LAA

-3.0 SEA

-3.5 TOT

 

Best MLB records

7. NYY 31-24

8. AZ 29-23

9. BOS 28-24

9. LAA 28-24

11. MIL 27-25

 

If we beat AZ, tomorrow we can be tied for the 8th best record in MLB. That being said, we are also one game from being tied for 15th and 2 games from tied for 20th.

Edited May 28, 2023 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

The positive spin on our rotation:

 

#1 Sale

4-1 2.23 last 5 starts (.539 OPS Against)

 

#2 Bello

4-1 2.57 last 5 starts (.735 OPS Against)

 

#3 Paxton

2 good starts of his 3, this year (2.45 ERA after first 2 starts)

 

#4 Houck

9 starts: 4 good/4 bad and good last time out (4.99 ERA in 2023/3.84 FIP/ .688 OPSA)

 

#5 Whitlock

Nice last start. A friend once told me, "A pitcher is only as good as his last start."

 

(Or was that Max? )

 

[moonslav59]

We now have 3 SP'ers under 5.00- HURRAY!

 

Two are close.

 

4.08 Bello

4.72 Sale

4.99 Houck

5.14 Whitlock

5.14 Paxton

 

That's a big improvement over Kluber (6.26) and Pivetta (6.15).

 

Perhaps the biggest saviors of our staff have been our #6 & 7 IP leaders:

 

32.1 Winckowski 2.23 ERA

30.0 Crawford 3.30 ERA

 

No more Brasier (7.29), maybe no more Ort (7.30) and hopefully not much more of Bleier (5.85.)

 

More from...

1.32 Martin

2.12 Schreiber

3.45 Jansen

 

That looks like a solid 10 pitchers. The next 3 are kind of sketchy, but we have a few to pick from:

Bernardino

Joely Rodriguez

Garza, Sherriff

or a resurgence from Kluber, Pivetta or Bleier

 

More likely, we grab an arm or two at the deadline.

 

[moonslav59]

A lot has been said about Bloom's failures as our GM, and no doubt, he has had a lot. I guess when you make 15-20 changes or additions, each year, there will be many failures. Our opening day roster saw a major changeover, despite Bloom being at the helm for 4 winters.

 

One of my letdowns on Bloom expectations has been his failure to find many "gems in the rough," as I have called them, over the years. That was something the Rays seemed to be very good at, and since our budget was slashed and not replenished for over 2 years, I expected to see more success stories.

 

We've seen a few, along the way, and several near misses on timing, like Springs and Martin Perez, but less than I expected and hoped for. It does seem like some, acquired a while ago are now giving more production, prospects acquired through trades are beginning to shine at the ML level and in the minors, and some new "gems" are helping us win games, this year.

 

I'm sure I missed some, but here is a selected list of "hidden gems" that have helped, at times:

 

Pivetta: sucks, now but gave us a nice run while eating a lot of innings for 2+ years.

 

Verdugo was not really "hidden" but being under the shadow of Betts was tough. He seems to be maxing his skills, this year.

 

Wong came from the same trade and is helping us forget who Jeter Downs was.

 

Arroyo was claimed off waivers. His continued time on the IL has dampened his value, a lot, but he has played well most of the time he plays.

 

Whitlock has to be considered the gem of the gems. Not many Rule 5's turn out like this.

 

Schreiber was another waiver score. WOW! He's been buttah!

 

Refsnyder has the second best OPS by all Sox hitters from 2022-2023 (200+ PAs).

 

Winckowski has made the word Beni obsolete in Sox Nation. (Others from that trade are now shining in the minors, too.)

 

McGuire for Diekman? MAN! I'd have paid the CWS to take Diekman off our hands.

 

Valdez and Abreu for 2 months of Vaz!

 

Yoshida looks to have fooled many "baseball execs."

 

Duvall and Turner make too much money to be called hidden gems, but both could be big parts of the this 2023 team's success.

 

Tapia, Reyes, Bernardino, Garza...

 

Paxton still has a lot to prove, and he's not really "hidden," but he may just beat expectations, when all is said and done.

 

Maybe, Bloom has not done as badly in this area as I and maybe others have thought he had done and was doing, all along.

[Old Red]

WC Race

 

+3.0 BAL

+0.5 HOU

+0.0 NYY

 

-2.0 BOS

-2.0 LAA

-3.0 SEA

-3.5 TOT

 

Best MLB records

7. NYY 31-24

8. AZ 29-23

9. BOS 28-24

9. LAA 28-24

11. MIL 27-25

 

If we beat AZ, tomorrow we can be tied for the 8th best record in MLB. That being said, we are also one game from being tied for 15th and 2 games from tied for 20th.

You mean there is something else going on in Boston outside of the Celtics? What a game, and what a finish last night! Down 3-0 in the series, and now tied 3-3 with h game 7 in Boston Monday night. If the Celtics win it will be the only time in history any team has come back, and won a series being down 0-3. LETS GO CELTICS!

[Bellhorn04]

You might think knuckleballers throw soft, but they throw 60-65 mph, which is still probably harder than any us can throw. And then the ball moving unpredictably to boot?

 

Try catching a knuckleball first, and you’ll see how weird and scary just doing that is. The ball just darts anywhere, seemingly freezes in place for a fraction of a second, then darts off in another random direction. All the time moving faster than you realize…

 

Like I said, "have a chance if I really get lucky".

[dannycater]

A lot has been said about Bloom's failures as our GM, and no doubt, he has had a lot. I guess when you make 15-20 changes or additions, each year, there will be many failures. Our opening day roster saw a major changeover, despite Bloom being at the helm for 4 winters.

 

One of my letdowns on Bloom expectations has been his failure to find many "gems in the rough," as I have called them, over the years. That was something the Rays seemed to be very good at, and since our budget was slashed and not replenished for over 2 years, I expected to see more success stories.

 

We've seen a few, along the way, and several near misses on timing, like Springs and Martin Perez, but less than I expected and hoped for. It does seem like some, acquired a while ago are now giving more production, prospects acquired through trades are beginning to shine at the ML level and in the minors, and some new "gems" are helping us win games, this year.

 

I'm sure I missed some, but here is a selected list of "hidden gems" that have helped, at times:

 

Pivetta: sucks, now but gave us a nice run while eating a lot of innings for 2+ years.

 

Verdugo was not really "hidden" but being under the shadow of Betts was tough. He seems to be maxing his skills, this year.

 

Wong came from the same trade and is helping us forget who Jeter Downs was.

 

Arroyo was claimed off waivers. His continued time on the IL has dampened his value, a lot, but he has played well most of the time he plays.

 

Whitlock has to be considered the gem of the gems. Not many Rule 5's turn out like this.

 

Schreiber was another waiver score. WOW! He's been buttah!

 

Refsnyder has the second best OPS by all Sox hitters from 2022-2023 (200+ PAs).

 

Winckowski has made the word Beni obsolete in Sox Nation. (Others from that trade are now shining in the minors, too.)

 

McGuire for Diekman? MAN! I'd have paid the CWS to take Diekman off our hands.

 

Valdez and Abreu for 2 months of Vaz!

 

Yoshida looks to have fooled many "baseball execs."

 

Duvall and Turner make too much money to be called hidden gems, but both could be big parts of the this 2023 team's success.

 

Tapia, Reyes, Bernardino, Garza...

 

Paxton still has a lot to prove, and he's not really "hidden," but he may just beat expectations, when all is said and done.

 

Maybe, Bloom has not done as badly in this area as I and maybe others have thought he had done and was doing, all along.

 

GM of the Year, There's no denying it. Sox are so fun to watch now.

[notin]

Like I said, "have a chance if I really get lucky".

 

You have a better chance at being struck by lightening immediately after winning the lottery…

[Maxbialystock]

The positive spin on our rotation:

 

#1 Sale

4-1 2.23 last 5 starts (.539 OPS Against)

 

#2 Bello

4-1 2.57 last 5 starts (.735 OPS Against)

 

#3 Paxton

2 good starts of his 3, this year (2.45 ERA after first 2 starts)

 

#4 Houck

9 starts: 4 good/4 bad and good last time out (4.99 ERA in 2023/3.84 FIP/ .688 OPSA)

 

#5 Whitlock

Nice last start. A friend once told me, "A pitcher is only as good as his last start."

 

(Or was that Max? )

 

 

Maybe me. Houck's last start was absolutely remarkable and a possible indicator of his future. And last night Whitlock's curve/slider was worthless, so he relied heavily on his fastball and changeup--and pitched 5 freaking innings while giving up just 1 run. Very gutsy start.

 

So you're right. Right now I like the rotation better than any since 2018. Dropping Pivetta and Kluber was a no-brainer: they can long-relieve in games in which the Sox are way ahead or way behind. The best six in the bullpen are Winckowski, Crawford, Martin, Schreiber when he returns, Jansen, and Garza--all righties.

[Bellhorn04]

You have a better chance at being struck by lightening immediately after winning the lottery…

 

At least I wouldn't get hit by a 98 MPH heater. That's a big part of my reasoning there.