A Realistic View of 2023: Part II

[moonslav59]

Agreed, but a projected half-a-billion dollar contract would seem exorbitant in Bloom's Boston... can you even see him spending that much on two separate free agents -- a pitcher and a hitter?

 

I doubt Henry would agree to anywhere near that amount on any one player, but I'm really not so convinced it is Bloom who avoids big deals.

 

I think the Devers contract blows up that idea.

 

I do think we keep looking for Yoshida and Story level deals. I doubt we ever find ana ce that way.

[sk7326]

Agreed, but a projected half-a-billion dollar contract would seem exorbitant in Bloom's Boston... can you even see him spending that much on two separate free agents -- a pitcher and a hitter?

 

There is box office appeal which helps.

 

But yeah it is a fair question. Now it's not a Bloom question, that's a Henry one.

[mvp 78]

Follow up St Louis record overall and minus those teams

 

2022 93-69 / 62-43

2021 90-72 / 52-53

2020 30-28 / 13-15

20-9 91-71 / 55-50

 

Outside of 2022, she may not be wrong…

 

I think they may have been overrated at one point. I think they have a really good foundation now. Just maybe not pitching wise.

[moonslav59]

Looking at our last 2 week numbers, what jumps out is who is in the top 9 in PAs:

4. Duran .484 OPS

7. Reyes .700

9. Valdez .766

 

Our best 2 week hitters:

1.317 Refsnyder (platoon 12th in PAs)

.804 Yoshida (2nd PAs)

.766 Valdez (9th)

.750 Wong (10th)

.737 Turner (5th)

.700 Reyes (7th)

 

Worst:

.400 McGuire (13th with just 15 PAs)

.484 Duran (4th)

.575 Dugo (3rd)

.587 Kike (8th)

.664 Tapia (11th)

.669 Casas (6th)

.688 Devers (1st)

[Dipre]

I believe in Duran long term. Too many tools and too good and approach to not become at least serviceable at the ML level.

[Maxbialystock]

Ohtani is a tough eval - but I doubt he will be a bust simply because he is such a devastating hitter. While you lose value if he can't pitch anymore - his athleticism and bat likely still keeps him as a pretty good corner OF.

 

Ohtani is dead simple to evaluate. He wants and is likely to get way more than he will be worth. I say worth in terms of wins and losses. He might be worth that contract in terms of boosting attendance, depending on where he ends up.

[Maxbialystock]

Looking at our last 2 week numbers, what jumps out is who is in the top 9 in PAs:

4. Duran .484 OPS

7. Reyes .700

9. Valdez .766

 

Our best 2 week hitters:

1.317 Refsnyder (platoon 12th in PAs)

.804 Yoshida (2nd PAs)

.766 Valdez (9th)

.750 Wong (10th)

.737 Turner (5th)

.700 Reyes (7th)

 

Worst:

.400 McGuire (13th with just 15 PAs)

.484 Duran (4th)

.575 Dugo (3rd)

.587 Kike (8th)

.664 Tapia (11th)

.669 Casas (6th)

.688 Devers (1st)

 

As always, good stuff--and some of them are surprises to me.

[Bellhorn04]

6 worst records are owned by the Reds, the White Sox, the Rockies, the Royals, the Nationals and the A's.

 

We have not played a single game vs any of them.

 

If this is what we're banking on to get us in the playoffs, we're in big trouble.

[Dipre]

If this is what we're banking on to get us in the playoffs, we're in big trouble.

 

Then again, a good way to make up ground in the standings is beating bad teams. But if the Angels series is any indication, well, we're f***ed.

[Bellhorn04]

Then again, a good way to make up ground in the standings is beating bad teams. But if the Angels series is any indication, well, we're f***ed.

 

Yes, exactly.

[Dipre]

I've always preached the idea that the main sign of a stealthily bad team is surprisingly beating the good teams, surprisingly losing to the bad teams, scoring when you're not pitching, and pitching when you're not scoring. Those are all things this iteration of the Red Sox have excelled at. Buyer beware.

[mvp 78]

Then again, a good way to make up ground in the standings is beating bad teams. But if the Angels series is any indication, well, we're f***ed.

 

A west coast swoon? Well I never!!! Hmph... Unbelievable.

[Dipre]

A west coast swoon? Well I never!!! Hmph... Unbelievable.

 

Good point though.

[Bellhorn04]

A west coast swoon? Well I never!!! Hmph... Unbelievable.

 

We have a +7 run differential. We're the definition of a mediocre team. It's just the way it is.

[Maxbialystock]

If this is what we're banking on to get us in the playoffs, we're in big trouble.

 

Meh. You could well be right. But this is the right thread in which to discuss the schedule ahead.

 

And all they are saying is that in spots it will be easier than the schedule behind us.

 

Also, a quick peek at the MLB standings suggests that in the American League the only two teams who don't seem to have a shot at the playoffs are the Royals and Athletics.

[mvp 78]

We have a +7 run differential. We're the definition of a mediocre team. It's just the way it is.

 

Better than what they were last year, but yes they are mediocre.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We have a +7 run differential. We're the definition of a mediocre team. It's just the way it is.

 

And yet, surprisingly mediocre.

 

Most posters here expected Bloom's new smorgasbord to either conjure the '13 Dempsters and win it all... or slap-fight with the '22 dumpsters to repeat 78 Ws.

[mvp 78]

Meh. You could well be right. But this is the right thread in which to discuss the schedule ahead.

 

And all they are saying is that in spots it will be easier than the schedule behind us.

 

Also, a quick peek at the MLB standings suggests that in the American League the only two teams who don't seem to have a shot at the playoffs are the Royals and Athletics.

 

Billy Beane is as big of a crook as owner John Fisher.

[mvp 78]

And yet, surprisingly mediocre.

 

Most posters here expected Bloom's new smorgasbord to either conjure the '13 Dempsters and win it all... or slap-fight with the '22 dumpsters to repeat 78 Ws.

 

Who said this? I think some people said they'd get a WC birth...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Who said this? I think some people said they'd get a WC birth...

 

You were active on the forum all offseason, and don't recall several hopeful posts trying to compare or argue about how Bloom's veteran signings could mean a worst-to-first-like turnaround, similar to 2013? It wasn't just here, but other places (maybe NESN?), but I specifically remember warning that the '13 club already a star core of Ortiz-Pedroia-Ellsbury-Lester-Buchholz etc. All we knew for sure about the '23s is they had Devers and Sale's doctors.

[mvp 78]

You were active on the forum all offseason, and don't recall several hopeful posts trying to compare or argue about how Bloom's veteran signings could mean a worst-to-first-like turnaround, similar to 2013? It wasn't just here, but other places (maybe NESN?), but I specifically remember warning that the '13 club already a star core of Ortiz-Pedroia-Ellsbury-Lester-Buchholz etc. All we knew for sure about the '23s is they had Devers and Sale's doctors.

 

I don't remember ANYONE on here saying they'd win the division. At best, people said they'd compete for a Wild Card and half of the forum laughed at them saying they'd be WORSE than '22.

 

Not one person on this forum voted for the Sox to win more than 90 games in the 2023 poll. How the hell would that win the AL East?

 

You're just flat out making this s*** up right now.

[Maxbialystock]

You were active on the forum all offseason, and don't recall several hopeful posts trying to compare or argue about how Bloom's veteran signings could mean a worst-to-first-like turnaround, similar to 2013? It wasn't just here, but other places (maybe NESN?), but I specifically remember warning that the '13 club already a star core of Ortiz-Pedroia-Ellsbury-Lester-Buchholz etc. All we knew for sure about the '23s is they had Devers and Sale's doctors.

 

I posted almost nothing last winter (November-March). Nevertheless, my view is that the hot stove league exists for people to be as hopeful or as pessimistic as they think/feel--without fear of retribution. It's just talk.

 

Had I talked, I probably would have been pessimistic because I was that way in March when the survey was taken. Right now I remain mildly astounded the Sox are competitive for a wild card despite being in the toughest Division in the history of MLB Divisions.

 

About the so-called miracle of 2013. Wasn't that GM fired? Some say DD wrought the even greater miracle of 2018--and he was fired the next year. Me, I thought the 2021 postseason was a minor miracle--and I notice that GM is still here. But who knows?

[dgalehouse]

Then again, a good way to make up ground in the standings is beating bad teams. But if the Angels series is any indication, well, we're f***ed.

 

The Sox have not yet played some of the weaker clubs, but it is also true that they have not played the Dodgers, Mets, Astros, Rangers or Yankees. The thing is, no matter who they play, they need to play more consistently good baseball.

[Dipre]

.500 against the good clubs and .700 against the bad clubs gets you to the postseason.

[mvp 78]

The Sox have not yet played some of the weaker clubs, but it is also true that they have not played the Dodgers, Mets, Astros, Rangers or Yankees. The thing is, no matter who they play, they need to play more consistently good baseball.

 

The Mets are a .500 team.

[moonslav59]

.500 against the good clubs and .700 against the bad clubs gets you to the postseason.

 

.500 and .650 might be enough.

[Nick]

I don't remember ANYONE on here saying they'd win the division. At best, people said they'd compete for a Wild Card and half of the forum laughed at them saying they'd be WORSE than '22.

 

Not one person on this forum voted for the Sox to win more than 90 games in the 2023 poll. How the hell would that win the AL East?

 

You're just flat out making this s*** up right now.

 

Thanks for saying that. You're right. I don't remember anyone stating that we'd do better than getting into the playoffs.

[Nick]

Cora has this team set up the way I had hoped recently.

 

Pivetta is not starting. Kluber is not starting.

I get to watch 3 of my favorite players Bello, Houck and Whitlock start.

 

 

Next up is for Story or Mondesi to play short and Kike to platoon at second vs lefties and play some outfield.

 

I really don't have any complaints.

 

It's now up to the players to perform.

 

It's on them!

Edited May 25, 2023 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Cora has this team set up the way I had hoped recently.

 

Pivetta is not starting. Kluber is not starting.

I get to watch 3 of my favorite players Bello, Houck and Whitlock start.

 

 

Next up is for Story or Mondesi to play short and Kike to platoon at second vs lefties and play some outfield.

 

I really don't have any complaints.

 

It's now up to the players to perform.

 

It's on them!

 

If Duran keeps slumping, and Kike comes around, Kke may end up playing a lot of CF, once Story and the ever elusive Mondesi join the club.

 

We seem to have a lot of options, once everyone is healthy, if that really ever happens.

 

SS:

R Story

S Mondesi

R Kike

R Chang

 

2B

R Story

L Valdez

R Kike

R Arroyo

R Reyes

 

LF

L Yoshida

R Duvall

R Refsnyder/Tapia

 

CF

L Duran

R Duvall

R Kike

 

1B

L Casas

R Turner

R Dalbec

 

DH

R Turner

L Yoshida

(Others)

 

 

 

[notin]

I think they may have been overrated at one point. I think they have a really good foundation now. Just maybe not pitching wise.

 

I think the kid is right. St. Louis has been vastly overrated for the most part due to a weak and advantageous schedule…